Best Of Bets

Tag: four to follow

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Two

    Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).

    But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    Goodwood

    FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS

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    2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)

    Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.

    Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.

    This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.

    It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.

    According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.

    Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).

     

    HACKING THROUGH THE TURF

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.

    Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.

    Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here

    PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE

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    3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)

    Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?

    It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.

    Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.

    Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.

     

    Galway

    FUN AND GAMES

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    6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.

    He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.

    But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.

    One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.

    A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!

    12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day One

    What a Saturday for Four To Follow.

    Three winners, at big prices, it couldn’t have gone much better. It sets up a fantastic week for both Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival, a midsummer’s treat.

    Here are four to look out for from both sides of the Irish Sea.

     

    Goodwood

    Hot Hot Hot

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    3:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – Iberian @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    The Vintage Stakes is always throwing up some useful two-year-olds.

    Highland Reel, Expert Eye and Pinatubo have all won this race in recent years. But the best thing is not one outfit has dominated the race, which makes the betting heat wide open.

    I’ve chosen Iberian because I liked what I saw when he won on debut, travelling smartly to the two pole when everyone around him was being hurried, and looked very professional.

    Charlie Hills isn’t going well at the moment, but he seems to have a knack with his two-year-olds, who have delivered a £27.50 profit to a £1 stake. The horse itself is out of Lope De Vega, so shouldn’t have a problem getting the seven furlong trip.

     

    Keen On Ross

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    4:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 5/4 (General)

    I love Kinross. I loved him at the back-end of last season when he won three seven-furlong races on the spin. It is his true trip.

    He won the Lennox two years ago, fending off Creative Force by a neck, on soft ground. He then got chinned himself when losing to Sandrine last year on good ground.

    With the ground expected to be soft, and Frankie on board, I’m expecting another big performance from Kinross, and maybe we might see a repeat of last year’s feat.

     

    Don’t Rane On His Parade

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    4:35 – Goodwood Cup (Group One) – Coltrane @ 10/3 (Unibet)

    Courage Mon Amis was extremely impressive at Royal Ascot. Extremely impressive.

    He’s unbeaten and is ridden and trained by that familiar partnership of Dettori and Gosden. He’s also won at Goodwood this season in preparation for the Gold Cup.

    Why am I against him? Purely on experience and ground. He’s 4/4 and, like the Gold Cup, he’s up against some experienced rivals.

    Coltrane is his nearest challenger and just couldn’t produce over the 2m 4F trip last time out. This time it’s a fairer two-mile trip and Coltrane loves a bit of juice. It’s hard to know what the favourite likes as his two wins on turf have come on good-to-firm ground. Coltrane represents far better value, and can finally show off his Group One potential.

    To follow him in, I’m expecting Giavelloto to be up there. Marco Botti deliberately avoided the Gold Cup and has decided to come here. He’s versatile with the ground, so that’s not a problem and Andrea Atzeni is no jockey to be sniffed at, given his two wins on Stardivarius here.

    He won the Yorkshire Cup, which is always a good early season test, and that little loinger lay-off will have him in good nick for the contest. 14/1 (William Hill) is a perfect price.

     

    Galway

    A Nice Cup For Joe

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    6:40 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile (Premier H’cap) – Joe Masseria @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    The first big highlight of the Galway Festival is the mile handicap, which is 1m 123yds.

    Last year’s winner, Soaring Monarch is rightly at the top of the betting for being set up for this race again, but I’ve decided to go down a more active route.

    Joe Masseria is a soft ground specialist and a Galway C&D winner. He finished third on yielding ground, but that was after a break of the track since the early spring. It was a good set up for this race which looks tailor-made for him. Colin Keane is back on board, and he has a 2/3 record aboard him so looks set for another big performance.

    Gavin Cromwell has a runner in the race that looks as though he has been targeted since the end of the jumps season. Mister Wilson is a C&D winner and also loves the soft ground. A mark of 83 shouldn’t trouble him at all, after narrowly losing to twice winner of the Mile handicap Saltonstall, at Tipperary. He looks a big price at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    And it wouldn’t be an Irish premier handicap without a battalion of Adrian McGuinness’ taking up nearly half the field.

    Celtic Crown catches the eye with claimer James Ryan aboard, who has a 12% strike rate which isn’t bad for a jockey with a seven-pound allowance. That takes his mark down to 84, which is a big winning mark for after he won the Emerald Mile at the Curragh in 2022 off the same mark.

    Conditions might suit, although if the ground stays heavy on the West Coast of Ireland, be wary. Small stakes at 22/1 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Doing A Rain Dance

    Whilst Europe is baking, we’re stuck with typical British Summer rain. But that’s not all bad, as there are some cracking bets to be had on a subdued Saturday. Irish Oaks takes centre stage at the Curragh, whilst Newbury and Market Rasen are the focus in the UK. Here is this week’s four to follow.

     

    Newbury

    SHADWELL SHOW

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    15:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Ehraz @ 12/1 (General)

    Shadwell have had a great record in the race in recent times, winning four out of the last ten. Jim Crowley knows his way around a decent Shadwell sprinter, and has also won this race four times. Blinkers are on for the first time, which can be seen as a positive in a decent sized field like this. And a nice middle draw should also suit nicely. With the rain on its way, it ticks another box for Ehraz as his best record comes on ground worse than good to firm. For Lezoo backers, she doesn’t have a great record on ground worse than good-to-firm, which is a big concern for me.

     

    Market Rasen

    AN OLD FAVORUITE

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    15:15 – Summer Plate H’cap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Francky Du Berlais @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

    It’s great to see a bit of Summer jumps action at Market Rasen, and at Cartmel too, and it’s also great to see a familiar name in their premier race. Francky Du Berlais has won this race for the previous two years, and won a right ding-dong against La Domaniale last year. La Domaniale is up 12 pounds from last year’s nose-off, but has improved massively since then and is a fair mark. Whereas Francky hasn’t won since, and goes off a mark one pound higher than last year’s winning mark. But he loves the track, and seems to come into his own in the Summer months. It could be a legendary three-peat for a legendary horse.

    Keep an eye out for Killer Clown, who came third off the back of a wind operation for the Emma Lavelle team. He suits the profile of a Summer horse, preferring good ground throughout the Winter, and his mark of 138 will suit him, condiering he came second in the Greatwood Gold Cup off the same. A nice 12/1 shot (10Bet, BetUK)

     

    Curragh

    WILD WEATHER

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    14:35 – Scurry Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Hurricane Ivor @ 11/1 (Betfred)

    There are two good reason why I’ve gone with this horse. One is because of the name, keeping the theme of the weather. And the other is because of this horse’s record in the rain. It has won five races out of 13 on ground ranging between good-to-soft and heavy, which isn’t a bad strike rate for a sprinter. His previous two starts at the Curragh have reulted in a win and a third, before not taking to the ground in the Wokingham. The other thing is that he is off a workable mark of 99 and a nice inside draw in four. There are lot of positives to this horse, even with the weather.

    Another horse who likes the rain is Blairmayne. His last two starts have been on soft/heavy ground and have resulted in a win and a tight third. He sprung up the handicap from a mark of 82 to 89, but is back to a mark of 85 and Blairmayne can take full advantage. Wide draws, aren’t necessarily a bad thing at the Curragh either. 14/1 is a fair each-way shout (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

     

    DANCING IN THE RAIN

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    15:45 – IRISH OAKS (GROUP ONE) – SAVETHELASTDANCE @ EVENS (BetVictor)

    The simple fact is on her four starts, three of them have come on soft to heavy ground and she has won two of them. She won one of them at Chester by 22 lengths, she ran a great race despite finishing second to Soul Sister, who didn’t back up the form in the Grand Prix de Paris. She has everything in her favour, including three stablemates to guard her so she can waltz home and pick up Aidan O’Brien’s third classic of the season.

    Azazat could be worth a punt on the without market. She has also won on soft to heavy ground and wasn’t too far behind Savethelastdance at Leopardstown. She is by a Derby winner, so there is no worry about the trip and could have won the Munster Oaks if she wasn’t bumped at the finish by Rosscarberry. She’s tough and might get a place if she’s lucky. 14/1 (William Hill) is her best price outright.

    The very best of luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Day One at Royal Ascot wasn’t a great day for the column. The NAP landed, when Paddington hacked up in the feature, but Bring On The Night got trapped and Cuban Thunder was never involved. But Royal Ascot is very much a marathon and Day Two should start to turn the tide.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    MOORE MOORE MOORE

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    NAP: Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)

    A treble for Ryan Moore yesterday took his total winners at the Royal meeting to 76 yesterday, after an astonishing treble on River Tiber, Paddington and Vauban. A £1 treble would have paid out £15.20, which shows the pull of the almost-40-year-old jockey. Today he rides Luxembourg, who’s been tipped in my Four To Follow column, when he won the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He led all the way, fending off Bay Bridge in the latter stages and there’s nothing to say he can do it again from stall one on the round course.

    Keep an eye out for Mostahdaf, who is unbeaten off a 50+ day break, and is making his UK reappearance, and seems to have a good draw on the wide outside in draw six. Both Jim Crowley and the Gosdens’ seem to have gone under in terms of winners, but this horse has to have been strategically aimed at this race, and is Group One level with a rating of 121, 2lbs lower than Luxembourg. Completely the wrong price at 20/1 (General).

    A ROYAL ROGUE

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    E/W BET: Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    I like Prosperous Voyage, and there is much debate about what the ground will be by 3:40 in the afternoon. Prosperous Voyage loves the firm ground, but any cut and she’s vulnerable. Given Ascot had a storm yesterday, it puts me off her. The next best rated is Rogue Millennium. She’s had decent form figures since the turn of the new season, 232, narrowly beaten at York last time out on the firm ground. She won’t mind the ground, and Group Two is at her true level and she’ll give Jumbly a true test on the straight track.

    AN INTELLOGENT BET

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    Handicap Best: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Intellogent @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Perotto is the favourite, and every punter has said in every preview ‘Perotto is my bet of the week.’ Well, well done tipsters he’s now 7/1. So, it tempts me to look elsewhere. I looked underneath Perotto in the betting and Intellogent stood out. Ran a stormer last year off 105, and lost by half a length. He’s rated 104 this  and that mark that makes him appealing; he’s versatile on all grounds; and, he’s drawn one off the stand side rail in 31. James Doyle has a nice 26% strike rate to back it up.

    Ghaly also caught the eye. Not just in the formbook, but when I saw him in person at York last year. He kept on in a four-runner handicap at York, beating Blue For You by a neck, which was his second run off a massive break. He then beat King Of Conquest, and the race threw up great formlines. He’s on the other side f the track in stall eight, but Saeed bin Suroor had hit a sweet spot, and Oisin Murphy is always eye-catching. Next best at 10/1 (William Hill)

    Chasing Aphrodite also gave off good each-way vibes. Won the trial for this race at the Trials meeting, and the handicapper has raised him four pounds for a length-and-a-half win. Versatile ground-wise, with wins on Good and Good-to-firm ground and Hayley Turner always turns up at Royal Ascot. Prepare for an excitable Ed Chamberlain if Hayley’s victorious. Decent claims at 16/1 (William Hill)

    One more for the Hunt Cup, and Dunum represents good Irish form. Narrowly beaten when favourite in the Emerald Mile, but has been consistent throughtou his career. 1111212 read his form figures and a 4lbs rise will mean nothing to him, having defied 6lb and 9lbs rises before. Bookies have the main Irish raider at 14/1 (10Bet, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group Two) – Got To Love A Grey @ 10/1 (General), Bundchen e/w @ 16/1 (General)
    15:05 – Kensington Palace Fillies’ H’cap – Adelaise @ 7/1 (General)
    15:40 – Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Jumbly @ 9/4 (General), ROGUE MILLENNIUM E/W @ 12/1 (Betfred)
    16:20 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG (NAP) @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)
    17:00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – INTELLOGENT @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill), Ghaly (10/1) Chasing Aphrodite (16/1) & Dunum (14/1) all e/w
    17:35 – Queen’s Vase (Group Two) – Peking Opera @ 6/1 (General)
    18:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – Bombay Bazaar @ 10/1 (General)