Best Of Bets

Tag: four to follow

  • Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    Four To Follow: Cambridge Classic + Arc de Triomphe

    It’s a great weekend for sports fans. The Ryder Cup is in full swing, another great weekend of Premier League football and the Rugby World Cup continues. Plus, it’s Arc weekend. For two days Europe’s elite head to ParisLongchamp for Europe’s biggest prize named after one of the city’s most famous landmark. Who will win the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe? And there’s the small matter of the Cambridgeshire too.

    Saturday – Newmarket

    A Pot of Fortuna

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally is a really unfortunate non-runner, as she has been the standout this season. But the race opens up and, despite the market headed by a talented French filly, I think one at a price can nab this. Porta Fortuna has been placed twice in her two Group One races and steps back to a more suitable six furlongs. She’ll appreciate the firmness at Newmarket today and jockey Oisin Murphy gets the leg up on her once again.

    Another filly that will appreciate the quickness of the ground is Symbology. She’s ran green a few times, and didn’t help her cause at Salisbury last time out. She wasn’t too far away in the Lowther, which is the form you have to consider for this race, and Clive Cox does have a decent crop of two-year-olds in his stable. Not without hope at 22/1 (William Hill)

     

    Take Them To Task

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Juddmonte Middle Park Stakes (Group One) – Task Force @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    As of last night, Task Force has been backed in to single figures. And with good reason. Already a Listed winner by winning the Ripon 2-Y-O Trophy, he is bred to act on the ground.

    He may be by Frankel, but his Dam, Special Duty, won the Cheveley Park Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground. If that’s not an omen for this seventh foal of hers, I don’t know what is. Seven Questions is the next best horse to come out of the race and he can really act to beat the two big guns today.

    Jasour is another I really fancy. He’s proven on firm ground, with two wins including a Group Two on the quick stuff. He disappointed in the Prix Morny and led all the way, which showed he was green on the day. He has won races before from the rear of the field, which may be the way to ride him on the Rowley Mile. Double-figure price at 10/1 (William Hill)

     

    Identify This Winner

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:40 – Cambridgeshire Heritage H’cap – Dual Identity @ 11/1 (General)

    When it comes to a 35-runner handicap, there shouldn’t be a 7/2 favourite. Ever. So I’ve immediately discounted Greek Order from my thinking for this race. And it didn’t take me long to find my main pick. Dual Identity had a great third in last year’s race and has only risen four pounds up the weights since then. A fantastic performance at Sandown aimed him squarely for this race, and looks in ideal nick to go better this time around.

    Majestic won last year’s event, and in some fashion too. Young Aiden Brooks has been overtaken by Benoit de la Sayette for this year’s crack, and won’t be too far away this time round. He will carry more weight this year, but a mark of 89 is suitable, particularly since he has been in the 90’s all this season.

    His best performance came at Epsom when second to Cadillac on firm ground, so has that in his favour this year too. He could become the first horse since Prince De Galles in 1970 to win the race back to back, 14/1 (Betfred, William Hill) says he doesn’t.

    And three-year-olds begin to come into their own in handicaps at this time of year, so it would be remiss to not back one here, despite the last youngster to win was Lord North in 2019. Terwada for Ed Walker looks interesting after a rather a good season in the form book. His first big runner handicap at York was a baptism of fire, finishing in the top half of the field.

    He’ll have to rely on a nine length win in a maiden to win here, but he’s only five pounds higher than his previous winning mark for a horse continuously improving. 18/1 (General) is a price worth having.

     

    Sunday – ParisLongchamp

    Rewrite the History Huk-s

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:05 – Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (Group One) – Hukum @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The last horse that was above the age of six was Motrico in 1932. The last horse to win from stall 14 was Golden Horn’s miracle win in 2014. The stats are firmly against him. But I think stats have their place. I rely on stats all the time, but when you fall in love with a horse like Hukum you can’t escape it.

    A winner over further, a tough a ready winner when he won the King George in July, he looks set for the race. He’s been kept fresh and this was the clear aim, in what could be his last race in his career. He might not go down as one of the greats, but if he wins he’ll certainly be popular.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    As we near the end of the flat season, we’re starting to work out the best of the best. But that’s put on hold for the moment, as we head up to Ayrshire for another big sprint handicap worth its weight in Bronze, Silver and Gold. The Ayr Gold Cup takes centre stage and I’ve picked out three over the border plus one in the Mill Reef to make today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Ayr

    Not Jumping just yet

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Ayr Silver Cup H’cap – Jump The Gun @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    Jump The Gun returns to this race 10lbs lower than last time. He hasn’t had the most stellar of seasons, tumbling down the weights until a fantastic run last time out in a handicap at Doncaster. He’s back up to a class two handicap and shouldn’t’ find it too difficult from stall 12. Last year he was denied a clear run, but a good break and a bit of luck will help him and William Pyle.

    Another horse low down in the weights who catches the eye is Aplomb for Eve Johnson Houghton. Very lightly raced this season, and returns to the Silver Cup seven pounds lower than last year’s effort in sixth. A near miss last time out at Goodwood has him in good form, and has a nice each-way price on him at 11/1 (Betfred)

    And what is a big Ayr sprint handicap with a few Jim Goldie runners. The Renfrewshire trainer saddles three here, but I like Be Proud at a big price. His best efforts coming over the six furlongs, so excuse his run in the Racing League, and he’s on softer ground today. Mark Winn may have only had one win in the last two weeks, but he takes a crucial three pounds off here and has a chance at 28/1 (William Hill)

     

    Talking ‘bout my Generation

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group Three) – Great Generation @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    This race doesn’t really produce future classic winners, but it can produce some fairly decent type fillies. She’s unbeaten and won with plenty in hand last time out at Chester. She’s by Holy Roman Emperor and will like the cut in the ground today, as she has on her previous two runs. She poses a significant danger to the favourites and I’m taking advantage of that.

     

    Raze the roof

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Orazio @ 15/2 (Betfred)

    The big one is headed by Orazio, who hasn’t turned up in the big sprints. Both runs in the Wokingham and the Steward’s Cup were disappointing to say the least. But he’s back on sounder ground here for the Ayr Gold Cup. and has been kept fresh by Charlie Hills, which is a big plus in my books. He’s drawn right near the rail in stall 23, and all these positives mean I just can’t look past the favourite.

    The next best in the race doesn’t come much closer than Significantly. He ran an absolute stormer in the Portland and has been rather underestimated all season. He’s on the same mark as last week’s run and he’s low in the weights. What more could Julie Camacho want? His performances in handicaps at this level this season have been 262, which puts him bang up there at the finish. Well found in the market at 9/1 (Betfred).

    Fast Response caught my eye when the declarations came out. His mark of 103 may look too much to handle, but Brandon Wilkie’s seven pounds puts him at a workable mark of 96, a pound above his winning mark in the Wentworth. He drops in trip to six furlongs after racing at seven this term, and wasn’t too far away in the Queensferry last time out. Interesting at 12/1 (Betfred)

     

    Newbury

    A small selection

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:15 – Mill Reef Stakes (Group Two) – Array @ 5/1 (Betfred)

    Winners of this race commonly come from a Group race last time out, particularly the Sirenia at Kempton. The one who follows that line of form is Array for Andrew Balding. He wasn’t too far behind Starlust on the Tapeta, but he’s back on a sound turf surface today. He’s by No Nay Never and plenty of black-type runs in the family. He’s improving all the time and can work the Sirenia form in his favour.

    The very best of luck!

  • St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: No Rane On His Parade

    St. Leger Festival | Four To Follow: No Rane On His Parade

    What a start to the St Leger Festival for the column. Two winners plus a running on second puts us firmly in the driving seat for Day Two. Today, the feature is the Doncaster Cup where we could see another dual winner in the history of the race, which dates back further than the St Leger. There’s also a couple more 2-Y-O races to cover on the card in Four To Follow.

     

    Dance Battle

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:50 – Betfred Flying Scotsman Stakes (Listed) – War Rooms @ 11/4 (Betfred)

    Racing at Town Moor yesterday was slow. The 2-Y-O selling race was the second slowest in its history, which shows you the extent of how much the rain has got in. There’s a bit more rain forecast overnight but it shouldn’t’ be softer than yesterday. This will incline punters to stick with soft ground horses, and the favourite is just that. He scorched clear of C&D in June, and was pulled out at Haydock last Saturday due to the ground, and he’s got his ground here today. Trainer Owen Burrows has entries for him in the Dewhurst and the Futurity at the end of the season and is clearly one to keep an eye at three.

    Another that can perform on the soft ground is Dancing Gemini. A winner at Newbury on good-to-soft, he steps up in grade but not by much and is the perfect progression step for Roger Teal’s two-year-old. The form has been franked with two winners out of the Newbury maiden next time out, and those that raced next time out came in the top three. Dancing Gemini has a very good chance of outrunning her 17/2 (William Hill) odds.

     

    Bermuda To Brighten

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Flying Childers Stakes (Group Two) – Flora Of Bermuda @ 7/1 (William Hill)

    Looking at some of the trainers comments, some are quizzical about the ground particularly Big Evs. This news opens the door to other runners down the order and Flora OF Bermuda can put on another good showing today. She won by four lengths in the mud at Goodwood, and won’t mind the ground one jot at Doncaster on Friday. Her ground preference was evident when finishing last at York in the Lowther, but she’s back in calmer waters and can sail past those struggling with the ground.

    At a price, and a good name, Graceful Thunder has won three races this season all with soft in the title. The best of those was a class two maiden at Beverley and has gone since to win a Listed contest and was narrowly beaten in a Group Three, both in France. George Boughey enjoyed a 2-Y-O winner yesterday with Chic Columbine and has an outside chance with Graceful Thunder at 14/1 (Betfred)

     

     

    Ding Donny Battle

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Betfred Doncaster Cup Stakes (Group Two) – Coltrane @ 6/4 (Betfred)

    Coltrane has started to kick into gear this season and his Lonsdale Cup victory was mightily impressive. He was ever so tough to hold off Trueshan last year, in similar conditions. However, we just don’t know which version of him we’re going to see as it’s his first run after a wind op.

    Both will enjoy the ground, there’s no doubt, but Coltrane has to carry a penalty for this race which gives Trueshan a chance. But I have to come down on the side of the horse that has performed admirably, and that is Coltrane.

     

    Legendary Bet

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – Betfred Mallard Handicap – Legendary Day @ 15/2 (Betfred)

    In terms of a handicap, it’s a poor turnout. Eight runners at this level is disappointing, but it’s what we have to deal with. But despite the lack of challengers, it’s an intriguing race. The Goat is the one to beat with his 12 length romp in the Goodwood mud still fresh in the bookies minds. He didn’t run a bad race in the Melrose, finishing in midfield on ground he’s not keen on has to go noticed.

    But I feel Legendary Day will give him a big challenge. He’s ground versatile and can stay over further, which will be crucial here. His performance at the Ebor Festival was fantastic, finishing third. Mark Winn is a jockey I have a lot of time for and take three pounds off to give him an attractive mark of 83, the same mark he won over two miles with.

    The very best of luck!

  • St. Leger Festival | Three To Follow: May Or May Not

    St. Leger Festival | Three To Follow: May Or May Not

    It’s the start of the Festival that celebrates the oldest Classic in the calendar. The St. Leger Festival at Doncaster is always a fantastic meeting, and there are four days of excellent racing action, kicking off with two Group Two’s today in, a short and sweet, Three To Follow.

     

    Leading Into Battle

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:55 – Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes – Dragon Leader @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    Big field two-year-old races are, more often than not, a minefield for punters. But this particular race falls quite nicely in the calendar to have a go at. Most of the winning form comes from York’s two-year-old races, whether that be the Gimcrack, the Harry Beeby or the Nurseries.

    Dragon Leader is thrice unbeaten, including scorching to victory in the Harry Beeby at York last time out. He’s ended up with a surprisingly low weight, which will be beneficial for him to perform on what may be soft ground, since a bit of rain has been forecast in Yorkshire this afternoon. William Buick takes over from Ryan Moore who is Johannes Brahms.

    One who will appreciate juice in the ground is Flaccianello. After the fallout from Kevin Stott and Amo Racing earlier in the week, Cam Hardie gets the nod from Richard Fahey. Hardie has ridden and won on him on debut, and crucially won a nursery on soft ground last time out with plenty in hand and looks the each-way danger at 16/1 (Betfred).

    There’s one at a big price which I really interested me, Grey Cuban for Hugo Palmer. His last run wasn’t his best, but blame the ground for that run as everything happened at quite a pace. His previous two runs came on good-to-soft, and the form from his run at Nottingham has worked out a treat. Five winners have come out of that race, including four on their next start. Danny Tudhope enjoyed a profitable weekend in Ireland, and can pull a shock off here at 40/1 (William Hill).

     

    Darn Far Too Hot

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Darnation @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    I watched this horse in person when she broke her maiden at Thirsk. She won by ten lengths and I had a feeling that she would take the Group race route. She has the makings of (whisper it quietly) a potential Guineas winner. Her win in the Prestige at Goodwood affirmed my beliefs and now she comes to Doncaster, on ground she will relish. Clifford Lee rode her on her ten-length victory and has the ability to do it again, but with an appreciable step up in trip.

     

    Sumo To Sparkle

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – Betfred Park Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Sumo Sam @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    A race for the staying fillies’ over the St. Leger distance may seem appealing, but this year’s renewal looks hard to decipher. I’ve gone for those who have stayed the trip well over 14 furlongs, as that covers most of the distance (excluding the half furlong). Sumo Sam fits the brief, winning over said distance last time out in bottomless ground at Goodwood. The soft ground won’t be problem to her and can showcase her talents with Rossa Ryan in the saddle.

    But Night Sparkle also drew my eye in this open looking race. She’s running for the fiest time under Andrew Balding, and a horse moving to a top stable like his should not go unnoticed. She’s three from three, but is markedly stepping up in grade after winning two class three handicaps on the spin. But she’s won with dig in the ground and isn’t without an each-way shout at 8/1 (Betfred).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    It’s the turn of the future stars of the track at the Curragh today, as Day Two of the Irish Champions Festival dawns upon us. Two heavyweights of the O’Brien stable tussle each other in the National Stakes, whilst it looks a bit more open in the Moyglare. Here’s a Sunday Special of Four to Follow.

     

    Power Over Princess

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:55 – Flying Five Stakes (Group One) – Art Power @ 5/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    For some time on Best Of Bets, Highfield Princess has been the go-to horse for us. The story, the speed, all of it she’s been a revelation of the sprinting world. But she’s been hitting the frame this year, and I’m more interested in winners and that leads me to Art Power. Unbeaten at the Curragh, that course form is significant above the other horses.

    He’s five from five, and has performed at Group One level too, his best performance was finishing third in the 2021 Diamond Jubilee. With all that in mind, and with Highfield Princess just not cutting the mustard in three Group One’s this season, Art Power is the perfect Curragh champion.

     

    Fortuna Favours The Brave

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:25 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

    Ylang Ylang is all the talk, but looking on her performance in the Silver Flash didn’t look as convincing as it might have seen. She made all but Vespertillo was closing all the time, and without pace in the race Yland Ylang is vulnerable. Porta Fortuna isn’t.

    A Royal Ascot winner, beating Matrika who won the Airlie Stud Stakes next time out, she finished well behind the colt Bucanero Fuerte in the Phoenix Stakes. Stepping up in trip will be beneficial, and with no boys to face she may have an easier task. Frankie Dettori is always an eye-catching booking, and won’t want to leave Ireland empty handed.

     

    Fuerte To Forte

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:00 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group One) – Bucanero Fuerte @ 9/2 (888Sport)

    Who is the only Group One winner in the field? Bucanero Fuerte. Who won by four lengths in a Group One? Bucanero Fuerte. Who is massively overpriced for the race? Bucanero Fuerte. For me he holds all the aces. Even if Aidan O’Brien has two fantastic looking two-year-olds, according to Seamie Heffernan, they’re not. To accentuate my point further, O’Brien hasn’t won this race since Churchill back in 2016. The fact that a Group One winning two-year-old is bigger 3/1 makes no sense to me. It’ll be a fascinating race nonetheless.

     

    King Of The Curragh

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:35 – Irish St. Leger (Group One) – Kyprios @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    We’ve missed Kyprios this year in the staying division. His talents last season were incredible, and there seems to be a void needing to be filled this year. Courage Mon Amis never came on from the Ascot Gold Cup, and we’ve had a lack of dominance. But the return for Kyprios heralds a return to normality, and even at 90% he can put his stablemate Emily Dickinson into submission. Aidan O’Brien might have a great crop of two-year-olds, but he has a shining jewel here, and Kyprios is back to defend his Irish St. Leger title the Curragh.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    After a fantastic Ebor week, we’re back to normal Saturday racing. But there is some fantastic betting heats, including the Beverley Bullet and the tricky Atalanta Stakes. Plus there’s a decent looking two-year-old race at Sandown too. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Aheredia of the game

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Atalanta Stakes (Group Three) – Heredia @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Atalanta Stake is often a hard race to decipher. There have been three double-priced winners in the last four runnings. Another stat of the race is that only one five-year-old has won this race in its history (Lady Bear in 2003). There has, also, never been a dual winner of the race.

    This draws me to Heredia, who is making the step up to Group Three level for the first time in a year. She’s been very consistent, with two seconds and a convincing win last time out. Her ability to go on all kinds of ground shows that it won’t be a problem, but an outside draw may cause a small issue. But held up off the pace, she could make a late burst up the hill late on.

     

    Written in the stars?

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:38 – Solario Stakes (Group Three) – Starlore @ 2/1 (General)

    Breeding suggests that Starlore will win this race, as his sire Kingman did back in 2013. And plenty of favourites have won this and gone on to better things. Masar and Too Darn Hot are probably the most notable out of the last ten years, as well as Kingman.

    But Starlore may possess star quality. It might not have been a convincing debut when idling at the finish to hold on by a nose, but the form from that race has worked out, Arabian Crown in particular stands out. With a small field, and the best jockey on board (Ryan Moore), he seems a little overprices at 2/1.

    And talking of Starlore’s debut, Devil’s Point also franked the form when winning next time out at Ffos Las in convincing fashion. On debut, he only finished within one-and-a-half lengths of the winner and might not be far behind here at 11/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Beverley

    A rocket for the Bullet

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:40 – William Hill Beverley Bullet (Listed) – Apollo One @ 100/30 (William Hill, Betfred)

    Apollo One has had a quiet, yet consistent season. Four runs and four places, that isn’t bad form considering they were all in Class 2/Heritage Handicaps. But ground versatile, and with an ideal draw in stall two there may be nothing to stop this rocket finally grabbing a much needed win.

    But spare a thought for Tis Marvellous, the dual winner of the famous race. It could be the swansong for the legend of the Westwood and what a way it would be to bow out. He’s won from stall six before, and he may have the upper hand in what looks a tactical race. 7/1 (888Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

     

    Chester

    Flying to the front

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:20 – Chester Stakes (Listed) – Lone Eagle @ 100/30 (General)

    Lone Eagle’s best performance this season came over this C&D back in May. He finished behind Hamish, and hasn’t looked anything like that day in May since. It may be because he caught the Group One bug, disappointing in both the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup.

    He’s tumbled down to Listed level, which should be his bread and butter, and Ralph Beckett will want to keep his winning streak in the race going landing the last two editions on the Roodee.

    Military Order hasn’t raced since the Derby, but a hike up in distance around a tricky track like Chester doesn’t fill me with confidence. And finishing last in the Derby speaks volumes that he didn’t like the track, and Chester is often a good trial to deal with the bends.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Rare Visit to Ripon

    Four To Follow: Rare Visit to Ripon

    It wasn’t a great week, but we maintain high spirits as we build our Ebor week pot today. And there are some competitive races on offer across the country. The Hungerford and Geoffrey Freer are two challenging group races, we visit Ripon for the Great St. Wilfrid Handicap and a couple of juveniles takes the eye over in Ireland to make up our Four to Follow this week.

     

    Newbury

    Half and Half Alike

    Embed from Getty Images

    1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group Three) – Klondike @ 4/1 (General)

    It’s a little known fact that Klondike and Kemari are half-siblings, out of the same mare Koora. And I’ve settled with the latter for this contest. Only three runs to his name he won on his debut here and then has ran into quality horses on his next two starts.

    The firm ground could be an amicable excuse for his run in the Bahrain Trophy, and has it good-to-soft today. He’s rather unexposed, stepping into open company for the first time and recives a big weight allowance for the in-form William Haggas and Tom Marqaund combination.

     

    Maarbye he’ll Chin’em

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group Two) – Chindit @ 11/4 (General)

    Last year Chindit produced a rare performance over his favourite Newbury straight track. But this year he has shown his quality and, dare I say, Group One ability. Second in the Lockinge was his career-best performance, and his run at Ascot wasn’t that bad when he weakened up the hill. Dropping down in distance is a positive, having won the Greenham over C&D, and he won’t mind the ground either, unlike some in the field.

    Marbaan shouldn’t be discounted in this race. He ran a great race into third, when Kinross and Isaac Shelby went far clear in the Lennox. He’s been racing over six furlongs, and it hasn’t suited him at all, and the step up to seven will be much better. And without the two top class performers over the unique distance, he has room to progress and run a big race at 8/1 (General)

     

    Ripon

    Windy St. Wilfrid

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:15 – William Hill Great St. Wilfrid H’cap – Bay Breeze @ 14/1 (BetUK)

    This is one of the best handicaps in season. It’s at one of my favorutie courses, Ripon, and has the best name (Just who was Wilfrid?). And it’s a Northern race, won by Northern trainers. The last Southerner to win this race was Henry Candy in 2009 with Markab. And Tim Easterby has won this race three times, notably with Staxton in 2020 for favourite backers.

    The ground will be on the softer side of good, so winners usually come down the far side rail. Bay Breeze is drawn in five, and comes off the back of a narrow win over C&D and similar ground. His record at Ripon is phenomenal; six runs, four wins, one place. That record, and the trainer, and his recent run, should put him up there.

    Another Ripon returnee is Twelfth Knight, making his stable debut for Paul Midgley. He’s been moved from Ruth Carr’s stable, and has performed very well for her this season. His record at Ripon is two wins (both on soft ground), two seconds and two thirds. He finished behind Bay Breeze, but only by a half-a-length in a bunch finish. Drawn in stall nine, he’s nearer to the centre, but can still have the advantage if he breaks well. 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor) is a great each-way price.

    One more for the big handicap just takes time. It Just Takes Time, looks like he doesn’t have the right draw, but he’s on the right handicap with Jonny Peate claiming three pounds. He’s ground versatile, but he might in too high a class. That aside, he has things in his favour to give him a squeak at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

     

    The Curragh

    Snell Snell Snell

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:00 – Debutante Stakes (Group Two) – Snellen @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    A Royal Ascot winner, and unbeaten. There’s not much that Snellen has done wrong this season. She managed to hold off Pearls And Rubies in the Chesham and has been given a break by Gavin Cromwell. The one thing that may let her down is the ground, given that she’s won both her races on good-to-firm. But she’s out Illumined who handled the soft very well, and it doesn’t discount Snellen getting it too.

    But I think that Dollerina is the wrong price. She finished second to Ylang Ylang on debut, and the form from that race is one to keep an eye on. Three winners and two places next time out from the twelve runners can’t be looked past. She’s by Terretories, who handled soft ground and should be backed in from 8/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    Four To Follow: Rise Like A Phoenix

    After the Goodwood rain comes the Curragh sun. Regular racing is back for a couple of weeks, and it’s that time of the season where the attention begins to turn to the youngsters, as the first 2-Y-O Group One, the Phoenix Stakes, takes place over in Ireland. There’s also juvenile action from Newmarket, and interesting renewal of the Rose of Lancaster in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Shar To Dash

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:25 – Phoenix Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Shartash @ 9/2 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood Surprisingly this season, the British have dominated group sprint races at the Curragh.

    Commanche Falls and Art Power are the two who have lit up Ireland’s premier flat course. But Shartash isn’t without hope. The allowance is crucial for him and allows her to become one of the highest rated horses in the race, and the better ground may suit him better.

    He may be drawn in the centre of the track, but he’s surrounded by plenty of pace, which should give him a nice gallop to latch on to.

     

    Unanswered Questions

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:40 – Phoenix Stakes (Group One) – Unquestionable @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Both Bucanero Fuente and Unquestionable deserved to have another go at each other again. It was a fantastic race with only a head separating them in the Railway Stakes. Both sons of Wootton Bassett look inseparable, but I think Unquestionable can reverse the result from last time out.

    Firstly, Unquestionable is drawn nearer to the stand-side rail, and it’s quite hard from a horse in stall one to make the journey over to grab it. There’s a good pace angle from Givemethebeatboys on Unquestionable’s outside, and if he gets over to the rail there’s a pacemaker for Bucanero Fuente to latch on to.

    Finally, the Phoenix Stakes dictate that Aidan O’Brien is never far away from the winner’s enclosure, with 17 wins in the race, including with the recently retired Little Big Bear last year.

     

    Newmarket

    Scorch The Turf

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Carolina Reaper @ 4/1 (General)

    Mark Johnston has won this race four times in the last ten years. In fact his record since 2014 is 1211231, with no runners in ‘16 & ’17. That’s a strike rate of 71% in the race for nine years. Carolina Reaper is this year’s offering from the Johnston team and looks really attractive.

    She finally broke her maiden in style last time out over C&D, winning by four-and-a-half lengths. Form-wise, the second came and won next time out at Lingfield and the third goes in the second race on the same card today.

    The rail helped her on her maiden win, but today she is drawn towards the centre of the track. She does have pace to latch on to in the stall to her outside, and in form jockey with Jack Mitchell can see her over the line.

     

    Haydock

    Shady Customer

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Midnight Mile @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Fillies haven’t got a great record in this race. In fact, a filly hasn’t won this race since Braiswick in 1989, 34 years ago. Surely this year will buck the trend when the exciting Midnight Mile is introduced.

    She won stylishly at York last time out, and the ground will be perfect for her this time around. A hefty allowance will put her up as one of the highest rated, and Oisin Orr is one of the jockeys to keep an eye on with a 22% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    We’ve had some bad luck in the past couple of days. But now we know; the ground will be soft on Friday, and yesterday’s racing showed where the better ground is. Blue Rose Cen couldn’t find a gap as all the jockeys poured to the far side rail to deny her a British Group One. But that was yesterday, and today we are back, with four more at Goodwood.

     

    SITTIN’ ON THE DOCK

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Thoroughbred Stakes (Group Three) – Docklands @ 9/2 (General)

    Docklands has been on an upwards trajectory this season. Winning the Brittania at Royal Ascot meant he climbed up the weights again and now finds himself in group company. However, it was over soft ground where he made his biggest impact, winning by six-and-a-half lengths at Ascot in May.

    And he won’t mind the sharpness of the Goodwood track, having conquered Kempton and lost by a neck at Haydock as a two-year-old. With Nostrum odds-on, and he has never raced on ground softer than good, he makes perfect sense.

    Keep an eye on Jessie Harrington’s Bold Discovery in stall four, as he has performed well at similar levels on soft/heavy ground over in Ireland, and 14/1 (General) looks too big of a price.

     

    WE’VE GONE AWAAL

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Golden Mile H’cap (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 11/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Simon & Ed Crisford have had a very quiet season, but they’ve a well-handicapped runner here. Awaal has a great record on soft/heavy ground, running in second in the Lincoln in March. He then went on to finish third in his next two British races, and now has a useful claimer on board in Harry Davies. Cheeckpieces are on him for the first time, which will sharpen him up and give him a solid chance, if he can overcome stall 12 and get to the far side in the straight.

    David O’Meara has a great record in the Golden Mile, winning two out of the last three. And he is determined to keep that record going with six runners in the race. The one I’m siding with is Bopedro. He’s been racing over seven furlongs in the first half of the season, but steps up to a mile when the ground has got softer. His mark of 100 might not be a winning one, but conditions are suitable for him to be up there at the finish, and a solid each-way chance at 20/1 (Boylesports).

    There’s also some chance for Johan, making his seasonal reappearance. It seems the conditions haven’t been ideal for him, and now William Haggas has felt the time is right. Whilst Lattam takes the limelight, Johan could run similar to his 2022 Lincoln win which came off a pound lower than his mark today. 28/1 (William Hill) is a steal of a price.

     

    THE GOODWOOD SPRINT QUEEN

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group Two) – Highfield Princess @ 10/11 (General)

    Highfield Princess is a top quality horse. But she hasn’t been showing it on bare form. But she was unlucky up at York, and both runs at Ascot. The drop down in class will help, and the soft ground won’t be a problem to her. She’s drawn near the pace in stall three, with Ponntos in stall five. With Highfield Princess drawn near towards where the better ground may be, she has fantastic chance to get her first win of the season.

    Keep an eye out for Nymphadora, who is improving all the time, and showed her class at Sandown. Soft ground won’t be a problem, and can make a good step up in class and keep improving. 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) is a cracking price.

     

    SCOTCH IN SUSSEX

    Embed from Getty Images

    4:10 – L’Ormarins King’s Plate Glorious Stakes (Group Three) – Hamish @ 4/5 (General)

    Hamish avoided the clash of the generations last week, and has opted to come here. Which gives him a much better chance, and his ideal conditions. Hopefully it won’t be long before we see him step up to Group Two’s and One’s later this season.

    Finishing in behind him, Epictetus has got first time cheeckpieces on, and should relish this lower grade, and softer conditions are good to him, even though he ran a stellar race at York on good-to-firm.

    And Epic Poet was a consistent runner in France, before moving to Freddie and Martyn Meade’s. His run at Newbury was a bit of blow out, but could bounce back over a further trip on soft ground and a sharper test at Goodwood.

    Those three could make a valuable tricast.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

    Embed from Getty Images

    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

    Embed from Getty Images

    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

    Embed from Getty Images

    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!