Best Of Bets

Tag: four to follow

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. All the stable stars come out to strut their stuff before they stuff the British at Cheltenham. It’s always a good indicator to see where each Willie Mullins runner will be heading to in March, but there is a bit of value to be found in the slightly more open novice races. Plus there’s a decent card at Sandown to keep an eye on in today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Grades Count

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    1:20 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Loughglynn @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    It’s telling which horse Paul Townend picks to ride in each race for Mullins, and the market is always keen to latch on. I feel though, he’s chosen the wrong horse. Predators Gold hasn’t raced above two-and-a-half miles and was beaten, in heavy ground, last time out. The inexperience may show here.

    Loughglynn is a far more accomplished novice. His win at Grade Two level at Limerick over Christmas showed that this horse has an engine to stay. It won’t be as boggy as Limerick, so has momentum to build on from his maiden win at Punchestown. Well backed Jetara has been running against the girls so far and might find this race a bit too hot.

     

    Mullins & McManus

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    1:50 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade One) – Majborough @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Once again Townend has opted to go for the Gigginstown colours in Storm Heart, who looked like a Grade One juvenile when obliterating his rivals in the mud.

    But there was talk of Majborough early in the season and I’ve been excited to see this horse appear. It’s a sign you’re a good horse when JP McManus buys you. It’s even better when he sends you to Closutton. It becomes even more exciting when you’re first race in Ireland is in a Grade One. If that’s how much connections think of him, there must be something in the water.

     

    Sandown

    Patron Only

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    2:35 – Scilly Isles’ Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Le Patron @ 7/2 (General)

    Le Patron is the only Grade One winner in the field. And despite Harry Cobden saying that Hermes Allen was at his best in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day, he still got beat. Le Patron won in bottomless over two miles, but he seemed at his best when winning over C&D back in November. JPR One gave the form a boost when winning the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago.

    The other big trend is that Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this race since 2009 and it’s unclear if this will be a stepping stone for Hermes Allen to the Festival. This is a race that Le Patron has been trained for.

     

    Racing West

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    3:10 – Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – West Balboa @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    West Balboa always comes alive in handicaps at this level, and she seems primed once more. After finishing way back in the Long Walk field, she’s had a rest and is back under top weight. Tristan Durell takes off a crucial three pounds to make her mark a little more accessible and she can out race this field in these conditions, which could set her up nicely for a shot at the Pertemps.

    Good Luck Charm was an outside chance in the Lanzarote at Kempton but outran her odds to finish fourth and within a length to favourite Impose Toi. Stepped up in distance, she remains on the same mark and is weighted towards the very bottom of the field. She’s been priced more fairly at 10/1 (Boylesports) but has a huge chance of running to them this time around.

    Equinus won by five lengths at Aintree way back in October and has had some respectable finishes in class two company. James Turner has been booked once again, and conditions will suit the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse. Extra places will useful if backing this horse at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    Five To Follow | Taking A Noble Hit

    After last week’s freeze out, the Cheltenham Trials meeting is sure to warm us all up. The stars come out to play, with Jonbon, Paisley Park, The Real Whacker and Il Ridoto to name a few. Plus, Doncaster has a fantastic card to play the support act to Cheltenham. There’s so much going on, we’ve had to make this week, FIVE to follow!

     

    Cheltenham

    Hire The Hitman

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    1:15 – Cheltenham Countdown Podcast Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Hitman @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Despite being the second string for Paul Nicholls in the race, Hitman has plenty of credentials. He performed well at Cheltenham in his only appearance at Cheltenham. Finishing a good third behind Envoi Allen can’t go unnoticed. He has disappointed since, but a wind op may have cured problems. Freddie Gingell claims a crucial five pounds to make him have a fighting chance and brings plenty of graded form into the race.

    Grandeur D’Ame might not have caused a lot of shockwaves, but finishing fourth behind Fugitif and Il Ridoto on New Year’s Day was a fantastic achievement. He’s been dropped down three pounds by the handicapper, which puts him on terms with Il Ridoto who reopposes. The latter is defending his crown with 10lbs more on his back. Grandeur D’Ame has plenty of each-way claims at 10/1 (Betfred).

    Not many will have heard of Shelia Lewis, but they will have heard of Straw Fan Jack. His last win came at Cheltenham at 2022 and he has been running in far too higher company than he can handle too long. He slips straight in with a mark of 137 and has gone under the nose of the punters and could spring a surprise at 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Don’t Stay Away

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    1:50 – Cotswold Chase (Grade Two) – Stay Away Fay @ 11/4 (BetVictor, BetUK)

    With no top-level chaser in the field, the buck falls to Stay Away Fay. And he can deliver. On a track he’s run at, Nicholl’s has said that he is giving Stay Away Fay a similar prep to last year’s Albert Bartlett run.

    Last year’s winner Ahoy Senor has pulled up twice, once on level weights; Royale Pagaille has never impressed at Cheltenham; Datsalrightgino has a lot to prove on level weights over this distance and despite Paul Townend coming over to ride Capodanno, he will not stay the distance (See Savills Chase replay.)

    It’s a straight match between Stay Away Fay and The Real Whacker, in my opinion, with the novice getting the nod.

     

    You Gotta Love It

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    3:00 – Unibet “International” Hurdle (Grade Two) – Love Envoi @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Organisers have moved this race to make it look more of a Champion Hurdle trail. Alas, the Champion Hurdle champion-elect (Constitution Hill) doesn’t turn up. But Lossiemouth has her first run of the season here. And as it’s come so late on in the season, I can only see it being as a prep race and she won’t be as 100% as we’d like her to be.

    Instead Love Envoi looms. She’s better prepped, despite missing her desired race at Lingfield last week. She’s C&D and gave Honeysuckle one hell of a race last March in the Mares’ Hurdle.

     

    A Noble Edition

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    3:35 – Cleeve Hurdle (Grade Two) – Noble Yeats @ 7/2 (General)

    It may seem odd that Noble Yeats comes here rather than the Cotswold, but Emmet Mullins must have the National on his mind. He disappointed over Christmas at Limerick, but you must feel this is a target race before either Festival or National to keep him honest. Paisley Park has been beaten narrowly in both starts this season. Dashel Drasher stayed on well in last year’s renewal, but Noble Yeats could have won, if not for a few mistakes, in the Cotswold Chase last year. A Noble run indeed.

     

    Doncaster

    Looking Forward To This One

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    SBK Great Yorkshire Handicap Chase (Premier Handicap) – Forward Plan @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    It’s a very open race, but the ground may give you a clue. The ground is described as good up North after a dry week, which only favours a few horses. One of them being Forward Plan. Anthony Honeyball’s runner won a similar race back December over C&D. He was only raised four pounds and is still well treated by the handicapper for a bigger race.

    Another horse who loves slightly firmer ground is Whistleinthedark. His record on the ground is a first and second. He’s down to the same rating as he was when finishing fourth to Forward Plan back in December. And with his opponent being higher can finish a lot closer at 22/1 (Unibet).

    Top weight Richmond Lake might have more recent form on heavy ground, but he can go on any sort of ground. He’s been dropped two pounds for disappointing at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day, but Donald McCain’s horses never perform at HQ. His hunting ground is more up North and this seems a more suitable race. Outside chance at 33/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    With a big freeze in the UK wiping out the much anticipated Clarence House, it’s a relief to have a good jumps card live at Lingfield for their Winter Million meeting. L’Homme Presse makes his seasonal comeback and could shake up the Gold Cup market with a statement win. Plus action over at Thurles too.

     

    Lingfield

    Hakuna…

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    1:15 – Lightning Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Matata @ 5/2 (General)

    This race has been switched from Doncaster to Lingfield, and yesterday confirmed the news that this race could be going to either Windsor or Ascot in 2025. But it can be an informative race for the Arkle, but this doesn’t look like a renewal that will cause any problems to ante-post favourite Marine Nationale.

    Having said that, it’s a competitive race and my money’s on the mare Matata. She performed admirably at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day in Handicap Company, only down by a length at the line. Her allowance puts her up as the best rated horse in the race and conditions will suit too.

     

    Presse Or Protekt?

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    3:00 – Fleur De Lys Chase – L’Homme Presse @ 8/11 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Only established as a race last year, this could be a graded race in the near future and answer some questions in the Gold Cup puzzle. The intermediate trip could be a good proving ground for those who have the potential to stay and those who needs to drop back.

    One horse who doesn’t have that problem is L’Homme Presse. He hasn’t been seen since the 2022 King George and has bided his time to work his way back into the fray. Going on his novice form, he should outclass the struggling Protektorat, who has had a dismal season. Kim Bailey’s Does He Know hated the ground at Wetherby, and is overpriced to finish behind L’Homme Presse for me at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Thurles

    Haughty Taughty

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    1:05 – Irish EBF Mares Novice Chase (Grade Two) – Hauturiere @ Evs (William Hill)

    It may not look the most attractive race, but when you dig a bit deeper it’s a two-horse race. Hauturiere doesn’t just have the Mullins advantage, but acts better on yielding ground than most of the field, who act better on softer ground. Silent Approach will make it a test after her efforts in a similar race at Cork in November. But Hauturiere should have the edge here

     

    Hattrick Hero?

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    1:35 – Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (Grade Two) – Allaho @ Evs (William Hill, Betfred)

    After Allaho’s disappointment in the King George, it makes sense to drop him back in trip in a race he’s won twice before. It’s a clear sign that Allaho will go to the Ryanair, but it’s no guarantee he’ll be favourite, or have the race at his mercy.

    Appreciate It looks best place to give him a tough challenge. Despite having not won over fences since January 2023, it’s been tricky to find Appreciate It’s true calling card. This, however, looks his perfect trip, giving how well he battled Fastorslow in the John Durkan. He can cause a little upset, against an Allaho who has question marks over him. Best price 4/1 (William Hill, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow | Back To Normal

    Four To Follow | Back To Normal

    After last week’s washout, racing’s back with a bang at Warwick and Kempton. Big handicap action, plus an insight into the Brown Advisory Chase at Warwick and the Ryanair picture at Kempton. It’s a busy day, so Four To Follow is here to help for the big races.

     

    Warwick

    Tough To The Core

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    2:24 – Hampton Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Apple Away @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Despite five runners, it’s a fascinating renewal for the future staying chasers. Apple Away looks to have her way on the soft ground, as she relished last time out when winning for the first time over fences. She’s up to three miles this time, which will suit her better than the trip in the graduation chase won by Grey Dawning, who she faces today.

    Grey Dawning seemed to suit the two-and-half-mile trip better and Broadway Boy no longer has the luxury of Cheltenham to help him.

     

    Back To Port

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    3:00 – Classic Handicap Chase (Premier) – Beauport @ 10/1 (William Hill)

    In the mud and the rain, Truckers Lodge was a deserved winner of the London National at Sandown, but in behind Beauport showed bags of potential. If not for pecking on landing at the second last, the winning margin may have been a lot shorter. Despite not having won at this marathon distance, Beauport has plenty of talent. Soft ground may make it easier for him and the Twiston-Davies team are the top strikers at Warwick this season.

    Fontaine Collonges had an easy day out in front in the Rowland Meyrick on Boxing Day. She had her conditions, and none of her rivals could lay a glove. For that she’s been raised a steep seven pounds. But in recent years, those high in the weights have found a way to sneak into the top four, and Venetia Williams’ mud lover shouldn’t have a problem at 17/2 (General).

    Laura Morgan’s Percussion has been found over the National fences at Aintree recently. Placed twice, you would think this would be a prep race for the nine-year-old. He has to find something to get in, and he has a fighting chance on the soft ground. There’s no question either about the trip, although he was racing in the slop last time out in the Becher Chase. 14/1 (BetVictor) is great each-way price.

     

    Kempton

    Bridge Over Standing Water

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    2:07 – Silviniaco Conti Chase (Grade Two) – Banbridge @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    I’ve missed Banbridge. One of my favourite horses in training is back and should be firing. He’s got his ground after missing the 2023 Turners’ Novice Chase due to soft ground, and it seems Kempton has been unaffected by the deluges we’ve had.

    Three Grade One winners go head to head, but I have doubts about Edwardstone. Might the step up in trip come too late in his career? Pic D’Orhy demolished a poor field last year and this will be a much stiffer task. Don’t discount Notlongtillmay. Second in the Turners’, he has form from the November Gold Cup to go on and may be worth a reverse forecast with Banbridge.

     

    Imposing Figure

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    2:42 – Lanzarote Hurdle – Impose Toi @ 100/30 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK)

    The Lanzarote is not one of my favourite handicaps of the season, but this year looks a decent enough renewal. Impose Toi was only beaten by a neck at Ascot before Christmas and only receives three pounds for it. It doesn’t put him at the top of the handicap and James Bowen, now the Henderson number one, comes over to take the ride instead of the option of Warwick.

    Good Luck Charm raced a blinder at Cheltenham to finish third in a Mares’ Handicap Hurdle last time out. Back to today, she has a claimer on board which may prove to be a masterstroke by the trainer, Anthony Honeyball. She prefers give in the ground, which she’s got, and the market may be overlooking her at 12/1 (William Hill, Betfred).

    Mothill comes into the race on a hattrick bid. Neil Mulholland’s horse is up two classes, which is usually a turn off, but he’s racing of his last winning mark now with a claimer aboard. He’s dominated his last two races, in the final stages, and may spring a shock at 16/1 (Betfred, Boylesports, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Happy New Year!

    Four To Follow: Happy New Year!

    From myself and my colleagues at Best of Bets, a very Happy New Year! Let’s get of to the perfect start, with a profitable New Year’s Day racing. And after celebrating Hogmanay in the centre of Edinburgh, these selections could do the trick of buying a few more rounds at the hotel bar. It’s brand New Year, but the same old Four To Follow.

     

    Cheltenham

    Leaving Me Stumped

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    1:30 – Handicap Chase – Stumptown @ 3/1 (General)

    For the first ‘Premier’ raceday, it’s a pretty awful turnout. But there’s value to be found and Stumptown at 3/1 is an absolute steal. Gavin Cromwell is the top trainer at Cheltenham so far after seven meetings with six winners, returning a +15.07 profit to £1 stakes. Form like that can’t go unnoticed, and since Stumptown’s run in the Hennessey Gold Cup, Cromwell may well have had this race in mind. Heavy ground is yet to be mastered, but Cromwell will have him well set for the race.

     

    New Year, Same Star

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    2:05 – New Year’s Day Handicap Chase (Premier) – Stage Star @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    It’s a dismal turnout for the big handicap of the day, but at least there’s some quality headliner. Stage Star romped home in the November Gold Cup, but with five opponents it looks an open and shut case. Some may say heavy ground is against him, but he loves the soft ground and has never tried the heavy stuff. He’s been on the drift, but I feel he won’t be by race time.

     

    Big Bob V The Rock

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    3:15 – Relkeel Hurdle (Grade Two) – Bob Olinger @ 13/8 (William Hill)

    Whilst there’s only four runners, it looks a quality renewal of the Relkeel. Two Grade One winners in Bob Olinger and Marie’s Rock go head-to-head. Marie’s Rock has the most to prove after disappointing last time out in the Long Distance Hurdle, but a drop in trip should help. But Bob Olinger is fierce opposition. His reappearance record is astonishing, and whilst it hasn’t been 50 days, it’s been long enough. Rachael Blackmore will want to leave with a winner at Cheltenham, and her best chance is here.

     

    Musselburgh

    A Wee Tot

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    2:20 – Auld Reekie Handicap Chase – Half Shot @ 5/1 (General)

    Half Shot looks to make it a quick-fire double having won just under three miles at Kelso last time out. It’s a little odd that trainer Iain Jardine drops him back in trip but it’s clear he can handle going further and soft ground. Despite going up seven pounds, he’s well handicapped and poses a real threat to the Skelton-trained favourite Frere D’Armes.

    And with a cracking chance of finishing in behind is Cracking Destiny. He’s won over two-and-a-half miles and over the course and today he can put the two together. His win over two miles in mid-December was impressive but the handicapper has been fair by raising him only by five pounds. He sneaks in at bottom weight and could be the surprise package in the race at 11/2 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    After sleeping off two full plates of Christmas dinner and mince pies galore, we move to the best day of the festive period. Boxing Day. And what a bonanza of racing we have on offer. FIVE Grade One’s from all over the British Isles, and all covered in a special FIVE to Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Auld Lang Syne

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    1:20 – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Giovinco @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    I have problems with the top two in the market. Hermes Allen has never gone over three miles before. And the French raider Il Est Francais has never gone on anything firmer than very soft.

    The going may prove to catch some of these horses out and Giovinco will relish it. He was unlucky at Sandown with problems being caused by a loose horse, but it’s clear he’s a stayer and a sharper track may be the trick.

     

    Royal Message

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    1:55 – Christmas Hurdle (Grade One) – Sceau Royal @ 16/1 (PLACE) (William Hill)

    Constitution Hill is not only the best hurdler on the planet right now, he’s probably the best there’s going to be for the decade to come. There’s no wonder he’s such short odds, it’s a case of name the distance with him.

    But to get close to him I’ve gone with an old name. Sceau Royal may be an 11-year-old but he’ll still know his way round Kempton Park like the back of his hand. Rubaud has never quite cut the mustard in terms of performances and will be put against the sword by the old master.

     

    Boxing Banker

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    2:30 – King George VI Chase (Grade One) – Allaho @ 7/4 (General)

    Ever since Bravemansgame was beaten twice this season, I doubted he’d actually coming here. I fear that he’s been overraced and won’t be up to the standard we saw him last year. Then the might of Willie Mullins decided to get a look-in. Allaho looks tailor-made for this race, especially with Paul Townend ditching the usual St. Stephen action at Leopardstown. Allaho has won the Punchestown Gold Cup and has always finished with plenty in the tank when winning his two Ryanair’s. He is the one to beat.

    One who I think is very overpriced is a Grade One winner everyone has dismissed. The Real Whacker beat Gerri Colombe in last year’s Brown Advisory and had that form boosted at the start of November. Handicap Company proved a little too much and is in preferred race conditions here. The ground should suit, and I’ve a feeling trainer Patrick Neville has had this race in mind since the start of the season. Certainly worth something at 17/2 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred).

     

    Aintree

    Technically The Tolworth

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    1:05 – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 3/1 (Betfred)

    It’s quite rare we see an Irish raider in this race, but maybe it’s because the Irish don’t have far to travel off the ferry? But we get to see a Grade One winning novice hurdler on our shores before most of ours have had two runs. And Farren Glory looked a real nice type when upsetting the odds at Fairyhouse and beating stablemate King Of Kingsfield by one-and-a-half lengths. It’s quite often these days, we don’t have the best novices anymore.

    One to take advantage of the conditions at a price is Favour And Fortune. It’s clear he has a preference for soft ground, even if he’s versatile on form. There hasn’t been a boost from his win at Wetherby, but many of his rivals would prefer there to be less rain up North. Sadly, they won’t be getting it. He’s worth a poke at double figures, 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Leopardstown

    A St. Stephen Star

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    2:20 – Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade One) – Facile Vega @ 1/3 (General)

    With organisers looking to get rid of one of the three novice chases here, an argument may be given to this one and its lack of runners. Only four turn up for this year’s renewal and no more than seven have turned up for one in the past ten years.

    And with the lack of runners comes the lack of value. Facile Vega will win it simply because of his quality, and the lack of opposition. Sharjah may prove to be useful, even at the ripe old age of 10, and Mullins won’t bother giving a sniff to the two other horses. For better value a tricast on the two Mullins runners, plus Cheltenham winner My Mate Mozzie, may pay something back.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Some Christmas Magic

    Four To Follow: Some Christmas Magic

    ‘Twas the Saturday before Christmas and all through the house, everyone was punting even the little mouse. Because it was the Long Walk and everyone wanted to see, Champ and Dashel and even Paisley! Plus three more on the card, so don’t sit in sorrow. Here’s this week’s pre-Christmas Four To Follow!

     

    Ascot

    Christmas Champ

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    2:25 – Long Walk Hurdle (Grade One) – Champ @ 11/2 (William Hill, Unibet, BetUK)

    Champ has probably the best first time out record out of any horse in this race. Only last time, after a break of 110 days, at Aintree did he not keep up that trend. But never discount this horse, as his new found love for hurdling has made him much stronger. He won this race in 2021 first time out and there’s no reason for him to do it again here.

    I also question why the market is discounting Paisley Park, did they not watch the Long Distance Hurdle at Newbury? This race is that little bit longer than Newbury’s and he would have wanted every yard of it to win last time out. For two veterans’, who we know can perform to a high class on their day, Paisley Park should not be 13/2 (General).

    The same can be said about the highest rated horse in the race, Dashel Drasher. I think many people forget his win in the Ascot Chase of 2021, and then went to find a more successful career over hurdles. Just because their ages are double digits shouldn’t mean their odds are. And on the back of a tough performance, at a track he likes, he should be shorter than 9/1 (William Hill, Betfred, BetUK).

     

    Christmas Cards

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    3:00 – Silver Cup H’cap Chase (Premier) – Blackjack Magic @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Blackjack Magic was fantastic at Wincanton and he can add another cup to his collection today. Whilst he has been raised six pounds, he is performing a pound below his true mark which puts him at a slight advantage. Trainer Anthony Honeyball wants the ground to be softer, but if he can beat a good going Threeunderthrufive on his not preferred ground, he can do it again.

    In recent renewals, four double-priced winners have won the race, so you may have to look at horses that will have come on for a run. That’s exactly what Switch Hitter has done. A good performer on good-to-soft, he certainly will have come on for his run finishing third last time out on seasonal reappearance. Two pounds lower, he has a threat at 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Iberico The Lord

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    3:35 – Exchange Trophy H’cap Hurdle (Premier) – Iberico Lord @ 11/4 (William Hill, BetUK)

    Iberico Lord is possibly the most impressive handicap horse this season. His performance in the Greatwood Hurdle blew many away, and the form from Sonigino and Go Dante backs it up. If the five-year-old backs it up again, we may not see him again until the County Hurdle at the Festival. He looks to have the beating of the field today and can show another fantastic performance today.

    Way down the market, Moveit Like Minnie makes some appeal, even though the rank outsider. He came close to beating Sonigino at Huntingdon last February and has steadily been progressing through the classes. Finn Lambert takes five pounds off him, so he remains a pound above his last winning mark at Huntingdon in November. There may be something at 25/1 (General).

     

    Haydock

    Follow That Star

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    12:55 – Betfred Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Listed) – Lunar Discovery @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    The ground at Haydock is heavy tomorrow, so mud lovers only need apply if you’re punting there. And one who caught my eye was Jimmy Moffat’s Lunar Discovery. She has a knack for heavy ground, winning on it three out of three times in her career. She’s markedly stepped up in class, but with the heavy ground to help her, her price holds a lot of value.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Christmas is just around the corner and Cheltenham serves up some pre-festive cheer with the December Gold Cup. Plus, Protektorat features in the three-mile handicap, and we get a look in to the Albert Bartlett picture with the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle. All three feature in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    A Storm Is Brewing

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    1:50 – December Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Thunder Rock @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Thunder Rock looked every part of the winner when winning the Colin Parker at Carlisle. Mahler Mission backed the form up by stepping up in trip and narrowly missed out on the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. Thunder Rock has performed round here before, and beaten Monmiral in the process, so has every right to be a well-backed favourite for the race.

    An underrated performer in the field is Frero Banbou. He’s looked more comfortable stepping up in distance than he did last season, and that’s been evident by placing in his last two races. His mark is only two pounds higher than his last winning one and, backed up by Cepage yesterday, Venetia Williams’ horses thrives on this type of ground at this time of year. Decent each-way chance at 11/1 (BetUK).

    Gavin Cromwell is the top trainer at Cheltenham this season so far. Six winners out of 14 runners at a 43% strike rate, he’s the man at Prestbury Park this season. He’s expressed his disappointment of Railway Hurricane being five pounds out of the handicap but has combated that with Connor-Stone-Walsh claiming the five pounds. He’s been placed twice at Cheltenham, and Ginny’s Destiny has backed up the form of his last race. Interesting at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Let’s Put On A Show

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    2:25 – The Sun Handicap Chase (Premier) – Broadway Boy @ 7/2 (William Hill, Betfred, BetUK)

    Broadway Boy was nothing short of phenomenal on his last start. His love for the course is clear, but a new challenge awaits in the galloping nature of the new course. Fakir D’oudairies’ addition to the race makes Broadway Boy’s weight light and his jumping, if anything like last time, can put him in a league of his own.

    Elvis Mail may be more suited to the borders of Kelso. But a slight three-pound raise in the weights won’t cause him much trouble. His two wins at this level should put him up there, but it’s a tougher test. He can stay and he can handle the ground too, so why can’t he run a big race? 12/1 (General) says he doesn’t.

     

    Bob’s Your Uncle

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    3:00 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Shanagh Bob @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Shanagh Bob is another one of those exciting novice hurdlers from the Nicky Henderson yard. After the impressive Plumpton win, Henderson was reserved in his judgement and is waiting to see how he handles the step up in trip. He should handle it, given his sole point-to-point win came over three miles.

    The owner of the potato company that sponsors this race, Ronnie Bartlett, has a runner in the race that looks quite exciting. Cadell is trained by Lucinda Russell, who is arguably one of the top trainers up there with the likes of Nicholls and Henderson, and makes a gradual step up in trip, which will be relished. Potential has shone through on his first two starts over hurdles at Kelso and could show up here. A little overpriced at 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    The Local Hero

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    2:05 – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – Bonntay @ 5/2 (General)

    Paddy Brennan has only two rides over Friday and Saturday. One was on Dysart Enos, which won, the other is on Bonntay. If Bonntay wins, Brennan will bring up a landmark 1500 career wins. What better horse to do it on. A two-time winner around the track, she steps up in trip for the first time since Market Rasen, and the first time up to two-and-a-half miles. It’s clear she’s been wanting the step up and she is a serious horse for the Fergal O’Brien.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: He Ain’t Heavy

    Four To Follow: He Ain’t Heavy

    As much as we wouldn’t like it to be, the ground is pretty heavy going out there. In the space of a week we’ve gone from freezing over to a bottomless pit. But a drop of rain won’t spoil the party, as there’s some top class action at Sandown, plus action over the National fences at Aintree.

     

    Sandown

    Love Is All Around

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    1:15 – Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade One) – Love Envoi @ 7/1 (888Sport)

    With the ground looking on the boggy side, and more rain expected overnight, it’s unlikely we will see Constitution Hill. Which makes the race wide open, until you see soft ground specialist Love Envoi in the mix. Expect Love Envoi to be short-odds favourite if the unbeaten Champion horse is pulled out. Love Envoi always makes a good impression on reappearance and can build on her defeat to Honeysuckle in the Mares’ Hurdle at the Festival.

     

    The Party’s A Bit Heavy

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    1:50 – Henry VIII Novice’s Chase (Grade One) – Unexpected Party @ 4/1 (General)

    It’s weird to see Unexpected Party in this race, twelve months on from finishing third last year. He’s by far the most experienced in the group, and in open company looks to be threatening. He’s the highest rated horse in the field and given the situation with potential Arkle hopes from the UK, he should have these on toast. Ground won’t be a problem and is stepping back in trip in another weak looking Grade One Novice Chase.

     

    Fontaine Of Youth

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    3:35 – London National Handicap Chase – Fontaine Collonges @ 16/5 (BetVictor)

    This race is always a highlight as it means we’re getting closer to that yuletide treat of the Welsh National. And with the Trial happening today at Chepstow, it’s worth a pivotal look at both. Mud lovers need apply for both races, and at Sandown one springs to mind.

    Fontaine Collonges has the making of staying chaser, and the more mud the better for her. She’s first time out this season for Venetia Williams, who we all know is in fine fettle. Ned Fox claims a crucial five pounds, to make her weight even more attractive. A wind operation will excuse the poor run at the Festival and put her right in the picture for today’s heavy going test.

    Another mud-lover at Sandown is Truckers Lodge. Surprising that Paul Nicholls chose to come here instead of Chepstow, the former Welsh National winner has the conditions in his favour. He was unlucky when brought down at Cheltenham, though he may not have won in the firmer conditions that day. The 11-year-old can still show some class in a race that could just fall apart. Worth a shout at 10/1 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK).

     

    Aintree

    That Same Lad Again

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    2:05 – Boylesports Becher Handicap Chase (Premier) – Ashtown Lad @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    It always helps when you have some experience in testing conditions, and over the hardest fences in the land. Ashtown Lad ticks both those boxes. His handicap mark was protected by the Skelton’s who ran him in hurdle races before a poor run in the Topham Chase. He blew the cobwebs off at Wincanton in the Badger Beers and is only two pounds higher than last year’s mark. Harry Skelton also decides to come here instead of Sandown, which could prove key to Ashtown Lad’s chances.

    The Big Breakaway also ticks the boxes that Ashtown Lad does, but at a healthier price. He finished fifth in the Badger Beers but sees his handicap mark drop two pounds. A drop like that could prove pivotal. He has experience around the National fences, although will need better luck than falling at the second. A shout at 15/2 (888Sport).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Stroke Of Genius

    Four To Follow: A Stroke Of Genius

    We’re all heading to Newbury this Saturday to escape some of the freezing weather up North. With Newcastle cancelled, and some more likely, all eyes are on Berkshire. The Coral Gold Cup, or Hennessey if you prefer, takes centre stage with some exiting novices to look out for too. It’s another Saturday Four To Follow

     

    It’s Cold Up North

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    1:40 – Coral Handicap Hurdle – North Lodge @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Despite being off the track for 602 days, North Lodge looks like a class above here. He was last seen being placed in a Grade One novice hurdle at Aintree, beating the likes of Good Risk At All, Colonel Mustard and Stage Star. With a form book like that, there’s a weight of expectation for North Lodge to start with a win. And with the ground conditions a little firmer than usual, North Lodge should relish and outperform this significant drop in class.

    That being said, Get A Tonic provides a more definite outlook. After experimenting over fences, she’s back to hurdles and racing off a decent mark of 130. A drop of five pounds is significant and may enjoy the drop back in trip too. Offers similar value to North Lodge at 15/2 (William Hill), and has already had a run for the Skelton’s.

     

    Everything Is Under Control

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    2:15 – Gerry Fielden Intermediate H’cap Hurdle (Premier) – Under Control @ 13/8 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    My BestofBets colleague Ash Symonds has waxed lyrical since the start of the season about Under Control. And I’ve succumbed to agree with him, for this race at least. Nine wins for Nicky Henderson in this race, shows how much quality can come out of it. And beating Iberico Lord only makes a simpler task of picking him as the NAP of the day. Expect him to go off odds-on.

    And Our Champ could also turn up at a rather inflated price. He was well beaten on soft ground last time out, but the ground will be more to his liking today. Rex Dingle will be hoping for another determined performance after Dashel Drasher’s narrow win yesterday, but he may have to settle for second with and impressive winner at the start of this season. Each-way claims at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK).

     

    Behold, My Genius Plan

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    2:50 – Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier) – Monbeg Genius @ 15/2 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Probably the most improving horse in the field, Monbeg Genius has every right to be up there for this one. Ignore his Ascot run, when he was hampered, and you have a horse worthy winning any big handicap.

    The main formline is the Ultima from March, a Grand National winner and a horse who has beaten the Gold Cup winner twice is something worth noting. And, keeping it in the family, Minella Missile (Tipped on this page) won at Cheltenham and is two from two.

    Ground is no object, weight is perfect, trainer in form. What could possibly go wrong?

    Stolen Silver may look like one that’s been thrown in the deep end by the handicapper. But with Ahoy Senor’s addition, the weight he’s carrying looks doable. A win in the Native River at Chepstow assured the fact he would easily get the three-mile trip.

    Whilst it may look he wants soft ground, he will go on any. Sam Thomas is a good placing trainer and I expect he has had Stolen Silver ready for this tilt. Worth having on your side at 12/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

    And an outsider that could get in those extra places, Kitty’s Light. It may not be his time of the season yet, but you feel with his chasing mark he has to go for these big handicaps. He’s weighted favourably for this race, and he’s coming in here off the back of two underwhelming hurdle runs.

    He’s much better over the bigger obstacles and possesses so much quality, he’s hard to ignore at 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Chest-Nutz Roasting

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    3:25 – Jim Joel Memorial Trophy H’cap Chase – Elixir De Nutz @ 11/2 (General)

    Master Chewy has been well backed after taking to fences well. But Elixir De Nutz displayed the quality of a six-year-old when winning the Haldon Gold Cup in fantastic fashion. Go back to the run in last year’s Game Spirit and you’ll see him plugging on when the pace got hot. Freddie Gingell is back after his big break at Exeter and can find some form for the duo.

    The very best of luck!