Best Of Bets

Tag: four to follow

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Three tips on Day Three of the July Festival, plus a John Smith’s Cup tip at York

     

    Newmarket

    Greek God

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    3:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Often one of the two-year-old races to watch, the Superlative has given light to the careers of Native Trail and City Of Troy in recent years. This year, there aren’t many horses to pick from impressive breeding lines so form lines are extra important. The Parthenon enjoyed a nice win at Gowran last time out, and his form line works out slightly better than his Godolphin counterpart.

    Look out for Pentle Bay who was best of the rest behind Bedtime Story at Royal Ascot. He’s one of a couple of horses to win on giving ground in his early career and has plenty of staying pedigree for the future. 5/1 (William Hill).

     

    Totally Mad

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    4:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Most people would associate seven furlong handicaps with Ascot, but the Bunbury Cup is always a competitive feature of the July Festival. Awaal finished third in this race last year, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind winner Biggles. He’s back down to a mark of 102, the same when finishing second in the Lincoln handicap in 2023. He’s three pounds lower than his mark last year for this race and Simon & Ed Crisford enjoyed a double on yesterday’s card and can build on that today.

    Darkness has less success at this level of handicapping, but has one crucial thing in is favour. He’s two from two on the July course, horses for courses they say. His two wins on the course both came on firm ground, but when in France he has won of soft ground too, so there shouldn’t be any problems there. He can defy a six pound penalty today and make a good showing at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Yorkshire has two things that I really like about him. One: His name. Two: His low weight. Despite not performing at this level of handicapping in the past, he comes into this race with a win over seven furlongs already. Plus he has a versatility with ground, winning from good-to-firm to good-to-soft. Only three pounds above his last winning mark and has the weight of God’s Own County behind him. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Re-Match Point

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    4:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Vandeek @ 7/2 (Unibet)

    Plenty of rematch’s in this ultra-competitive July Cup. I’m siding with the Crisford’s once again with their stable star. Vandeek wasn’t up to his best at Haydock, but given it was his first run of the season, I’m willing to let that slide. After he missed the Royal meeting, this was the clear target for Vandeek and should put in a first-class performance.

    Mill Stream has been very consistent in sprint races this season. Out of three he’s finished 2, 1, 3 respectively. The furthest he got beat was by Khaadem at Royal Ascot last time out, and only by one-and-three-quarter lengths. He’s versatile on all ground and seems to come alive during mid-summer. 12/1 (General).

    This will be Jasour’s first time in open company, with the older horses involved. Again, he’s been quite consistent in two runs, with a win and third in the Commonwealth Cup. With a six pound allowance for three-year-olds, the younger horses are always preferred. Particularly, with 5 of the last 10 winners all three-year-olds. If he’s on his day again, he can run a big race at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    John Smith’s Keats

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    3:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Epic Poet @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Always one of the most exciting handicaps of the summer, in my opinion, the John Smith’s Cup. Epic Poet is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race, being three pounds well-in and a second last time out. He remains on the same mark of 97 and has a tendency to perform on soft ground, going on his career wins which all happened in France. He can overcome an outside draw, similar to Farraaj 10 years ago.

    Not many favourites, or single-price runners win this race. Looking down the market Paradis looks a nice each-way selection. Despite not being placed on a mark of 95, he’s down in the lower half of the weights. He loves give in the ground, and he’s got good-to-soft today. If he can overcome his big field no shows, then he has a big shout. 12/1 (William Hill).

    Dual Identity has the benefit of having a win to his name already this season. Despite being a Sandown specialist, he has won over ten furlongs. He’s down to a mark he can handle, and has the benefit of a claimer on board. He’s a little bit well-in, which may put him above some of the other runners. Can he win away from Sandown for the third time? 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day Two of the July Festival

     

    Trip To Paris

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    1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Chantilly @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The form from the London Gold Cup has once again proven itself to be a hot piece of guidance. Chantilly came third in that race and underperformed at Ascot last time out. However, give him the excuse of firm ground and he should be a better match today. He also steps down in trip which will suit him, as he’s closely related to milers in his family.

    Sun God is likely to be a major threat in this race and has been found out by the market, but is still backable. A half-brother to Lillie Langtry and Park Hill winner Sumo Sam, Sun God is likely to go well at both the surface and the trip at this stage in his career. He also showed positive signs when just being held off by Black Run back in May. Exciting prospect at 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Heavens Gate

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    2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Heavens Gate @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Heavens Gate showcased a lot of potential despite being second choice behind Fairy Godmother in the Albany at Royal Ascot. She set the pace pretty much all the way and was just succumbed to Fairy Godmother coming over the top. She will have soft ground in her pedigree and should be able to handle this test.

    Fiery Lucy is also one I favour. Her run at Fairyhouse has seen the second back up the form next time out at Bellewstown and comes into the race. Despite not being out of an affirmed sire and only related to one black type horse she might not have the best pedigree for a Group Two. But her form and performances are worth noting. 11/1 (General).

     

    Golden Band

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    3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Bague D’Or is very consistent in handicaps, particularly when winning on his first start of the season. He’s a modest four pounds above that previous winning mark. There may be a slight negative that he hasn’t won on any ground worse than good, but his record in handicaps is so consistent I can’t look past him.

    Knightswood makes an appeal at a price. The Johnston stable has a decent record in the race having recently won it back in 2022. With the market just preferring Knightswood over the other two in the race, there has to be something right with him. A classic stayer and steadily rising up the weights, he turns up with a low weight on his back and looks versatile on the ground. 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Favour Or Fortuna

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    3:35 – Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 6/4 (William Hill)

    With the form from both the 1000 Guineas Stakes working out superbly well, the ideal pick is someone who has benefitted. Porta Fortuna won the Coronation Stakes after being nosed off by Elmalka in the 1000 Guineas. And with none of her rivals turning up here, the talented Porta Fortuna can scorch away and do us all a favour by handing us a profit.

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day One of the July Festival

     

    Lunar Hero

    1:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Space Legend @ 2/1 (William Hill)

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    Ancient Wisdom is clearly the better rated, but has been underwhelming in his first two starts as a three-year-old. He never handled the track at Epsom, and was well beaten at York. Space Legend has been a little more consistent. He was well beaten on firm ground at Royal Ascot, but was almost two lengths clear of the rest of the field. With staying pedigree, his clear target is the St Leger and this is often a quiet trial.

     

    Whistle While You Work

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    2:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Whistlejacket @ 5/4 (General)

    If you look back at Whistlejacket’s run at Royal Ascot, he never ran badly. He consistently led his group down the centre of the course, but the clear negative for him was the firm ground. Which is understandable, previous form backs it up. Had it been firmer ground today, it would be a far more open race. But with only few horses having experience on soft ground, Whistlejacket is a clear pick

     

    Soft Sprinter

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    3:00 – Bet Boost Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Moswaat @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Three-year-old handicaps still annoy me a little bit at this time of year. But we plug on and look for a sprinter who can handle the soft ground. Moswaat fits the bill for me. His first three runs this season have been disappointing, but he has only won previously on soft ground. He’s been dropped three pounds for his run at Royal Ascot and is down the weights today. Silvestre De Sousa has been on fine form since returning from Hong Kong and always catches the eye on board.

    Palmar Bay had a nice two-year-old season, winning twice and placed twice. He hasn’t seemed to handle the step up to seven furlongs, so the drop back to six will be a big positive. Again, he’s been dropped three pounds on conditions he will relish. He can also go forward on his side of the draw, and on soft ground might not be caught either. 14/1 (General).

     

    Scots Aren’t Soft

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    3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Hamish @ 10/11 (William Hill, Betfred)

    If there’s one horse you want to win over a mile-and-a-half and on soft ground. Call on Hamish. Coming off the back of an admirable run at Epsom, he’s back in more comfortable surroundings with a possible eye to the King George at the end of the month. Giavellotto steps down in trip, which could be a hindrance with a penalty on board and Arrest is far too inconsistent to consider so Hamish is the answer

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: No Real Surprise

    Four To Follow: No Real Surprise

    We’re on a Group One roll at the moment, with the Irish Derby and Royal Ascot behind us. We now focus on Sandown and the Eclipse, won by greats like Sea The Stars and Golden Horn. Can a certain City Of Troy add his name to the roster, or is there a surprise in store? Find out in this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Dreaming Of Winners

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    1:50 – Charge Sprint Stakes (Group Three) – Live In The Dream @ 3/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    When you’re rated six pounds better than the rest, you’re expected to perform. And Live In The Dream is bound to do that today. He had an excuse at Haydock last time out after stumbling out of the stalls and was closing in on Kerdos in the Temple Stakes. Eyes may be on a retaining the Nunthorpe and this is a decent warm-up, particularly with a good outside draw.

    To finish in behind, Purosangue is back to a level he can perform at. He’s coming back from a poor showing, but out of his depth, in the Group One King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot and to a level he can perform at. Good to Firm ground won’t suit him, so the added moisture in the ground is a plus with an outside draw too. 12/1 (General).

     

    No Wooden Surprise

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    3:35 – Eclipse Stakes (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 4/11 (William Hill)

    If you think that either Dancing Gemini or Ghostwriter can surprise the Derby winner, you’re wrong. This has to be one of the weakest renewals of a prestigious Group One, you’d expect City Of Troy to win on the bridle. With the International Stakes and a possible Breeders’ Cup challenge in sight, there’s more challenging races to come.

     

    Haydock

    Sir Mark’s Superstar

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    2:40 – Lancashire Oaks (Group Two) – Tiffany @ 9/4 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Tiffany is rightly favourite for this race, after her dominant win in last week’s Hopping’s Fillies Stakes. Going down the classic Sir Mark Prescott route, she was a handicapper last year before dominantly winning two Listed contests, then last week at Newcastle. Only three years ago Prescott won this race with Alpinista, and Tiffany aims to sparkle in her footsteps.

    Forest Fairy also deserves a shout in her first race back after the Oaks. She never ran a bad race at Lingfield, but just didn’t suit Epsom. On a flatter track, with plenty of allowances on her back, Forest Fairy may be able to conjure something up at 17/2 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Chilly In July?

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    3:15 – Old Newton Cup Handicap – Chillingham @ 7/1 (William Hill)

    This is always a very competitive handicap at this time of year. Chillingham is the pick for me in this year’s contest. He ran well last time out at York, despite the big margin between him and the top two. However, he’s still on a respectable mark, ground conditions will no doubt favour him and he can make haste from a wide draw over a mile-and-a-half.

    Maghlaak is an incredibly well-bred horse and shouldn’t have been the plan to go handicapping at first. However, this half brother to Mutanasseq has been well-raced and won earlier on this season before a poor showing at Redcar. But he now has first time blinkers on and hopefully Saffie Osborne can be quick out of the gates to get some cover. Low in the handicap and a little overlooked at 12/1 (General).

    Flash Bardot also won earlier on this season, and is back down to a respectable weight, two pounds above his last winning mark with a claimer on board. He’s been denied some clear runs in his next couple of starts and maybe a low weight in a big field handicap, plus a wide draw will help his chances. Long shot surprise at 25/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    After the come-down of Royal Ascot, we focus on a couple of Derby’s. Today, it’s the Pitman’s Derby up at Newcastle, or the Northumberland Plate as it is more formally known. Then on Sunday we have the Irish Derby, with the Epsom Derby’s second and third re-opposing. It’s a rare Saturday Five To Follow!

     

    Newcastle

    Northern Success

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    2:04 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Kinross @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Clearly, this is a prep race for Kinross in search of July Cup glory. Kinross missed Royal Ascot last week, which was a peculiar move by Ralph Beckett since heb seems to thrive on the heath. But clearly, bigger things are in store for the impressive multiple Group One winner. Starting things off in a Group Three has all the rest of the field vying for places.

     

    Duke’s Derby

    3:10 – Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) – Duke Of Oxford @ 11/1 (William Hill)

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    Duke Of Oxford has every right to be shorter than he is. He has a better record on the all-weather than he does on turf. He’s won at the distance and can easily manage the weight he has been given for a true stamina test. At Newcastle he has a record of second and third, and is back to the mark he was for second on All-weather Finals day. His run at Chester was underwhelming, but has put him back in contention for the Pitman’s Derby.

    Sir Mark Prescott’s power of handicapping awareness cannot go understated. He won last night Hoppings Fillies Stakes, so has already prepped himself for an onslaught of Newcastle. He has two for the Pitman’s Derby. But I fancy his second string True Legend, an each-way pick. He has already won at Newcastle and is a progressive sort after just losing out at Goodwood last time out. He should make a good account of himself at 12/1 (BetVictor).

    Forza Orta hasn’t been in the best of form lately. But could this be the mastermind of trainer Kevin Ryan. He wasn’t exactly in the best of form coming into his most recent win at York, with a second at Hamilton behind him. He’s only a pound above that mark today and is low in the weights too. A clear stayer and this race may have been quietly in mind. Too big to ignore at 25/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newmarket

    Back To His Best

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    3:25 – Criterion Stakes (Group Three) – Nostrum @ 4/1 (General)

    Nostrum has had some excuses of late. At the end of last season he scoped lame, and at the start of this season he “raced awkwardly”. With an extended break, Sir Michael Stoute has hopefully fixed the problem for the 2022 Dewhurst third and has Charyn to back up the form from the April race this season.

    Witch Hunter has just kept running into good horses of late. Although his Group One performances have brought dividends. He finished third in the Lockinge and fourth in the Queen Anne, outperforming his odds both times. With a small field, and ground he can perform on, he’s got an each-way shout at 7/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh – Saturday

    No Blue Feelings

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    3:30 – Pretty Polly Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Bluestocking @ 15/8 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Four British raiders are over for this Group One. And the favourite takes the fancy. Emily Upjohn has plenty of things not in her favour, particularly going off her last performance at Epsom. Stay Alert will not want the ground firm, which looks like she won’t get. And Tasmania is a bit of an unknown in the hands of Sir Mark Prescott, who will have yes on Newcastle. Bluestocking obliterated the Middleton field at York and will perform on similar ground at the Curragh.

     

    Curragh- Sunday

    Race Of Angels

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    4:05 – Irish Derby (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 7/4 (General)

    After his third in the Epsom Derby, it was clear Los Angeles was a stayer and this was the next logical target. I’m still not taken by Ambiente Friendly, even though he finished more than three lengths in front of Los Angeles. I still think that stamina may be a challenge for him. Particularly when Los Angeles is out of a Derby winner and a full brother to two black type winners with a mile-and-a-half in their pedigree.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ‘sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.

    Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.

    We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.

     

    2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.

    The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.

    On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.

    They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.

    It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.

    If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.

    The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).

    He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.

    Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.

    He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.

    Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.

    Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.

    He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.

    Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.

    Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.

    Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.

    On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

    As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.

    On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.

    She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.

    She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.

    Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.

    Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.

    As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.

    George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)

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    I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.

    Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ‘hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.

    He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.

    There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.

    The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.

    As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.

    That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.

    Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.

    Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.

  • Four To Follow: North And South

    Four To Follow: North And South

    In the build up to Royal Ascot next week, we begin to build our pot with meetings at both York and Sandown. Up North, we focus on the big sprints that York is so famous for. It’s the same down South as Sandown hosts the Scurry Stakes. Some nice value to sort out on today’s Four To Follow.

     

    York

    Sittin’ On The Dock

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    3:00 – Race To The Ebor Grand Cup (Listed) – Salt Bay @ 6/1 (General)

    Despite not winning a race since debut, Salt Bay is due a win. He came close at the start of the season as he only finished a neck down to Hamish in April. Hamish then finished an admirable second in the Coronation Cup. Salt Bay has deserved to step up in trip and may unlock the key to his success.

     

    A Town Up North

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    3:35 – Macmillan Sprint Handicap – Pocklington @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Located in 15 miles from York racecourse and trained up North in Malton, it may be written in the stars for Pocklington. The ground is acting on the easy side, which means the winner will be drawn from middle to high. Pocklington sits slap bang in the middle, and is on the pace of Media Shooter in the stall next door. A three-year-old destined for C&D trips in the future.

    When it comes to Yorkshire sprinters, Tim Easterby is king. Vince L’Amour is his top hope today, despite being a pound out of the handicap. It shouldn’t make too big a difference as he’s drawn in an area of plenty of pace. Expect him to go forward, and keep going as he should act on the soft side of good. 16/1 (William Hill).

    Twilight Romance should be one who’s prominent early on. Although he has shown indication he acts on firm ground, which may be a negative today with the ground on the softer side of good. But he’s drawn next to pace and acted well on the all-weather and should have matured to act on this type of ground into three. 18/1 (General).

     

    Sandown

    It’s Magic You Know

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    2:05 – talkSPORT Handicap – Dancing Magic @ 11/2 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Last year Dancing Magic was a group horse and has come down enough to perform at is level. He should act well with the ground and the booking of Oisin Murphy is worth looking at. He looks like he can’t manage big field handicaps, so this might be his cup of tea after tumbling down his marks enough.

    Terwada has come back to a mark of 90, which was his first winning mark as a three-year-old last season at Newmarket. He’s drawn next to some pace in the field and clearly loves going at the mile distance. Both Ed Walker and Tom Marquand are in good form too, so Terwada is worth a punt each-way. 11/1 (General).

     

    South Of The Equator

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    2:40 – Scurry Stakes (Listed) – Flora Of Bermuda @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Flora Of Bermuda could earn a nice title of Queen of the South tonight after coming down from a Group Two to Listed level. With Flora Of Bermuda she can either be on it or off it, and at Haydock a couple of weeks ago, she was off it. Now down to a Listed contest, it should suit her better than travelling to Royal Ascot for a sprint race well out of her depth.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: La-La Land

    Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: La-La Land

    It’s time for the biggest Classic of the year, the Derby. The race, which is defined by a single piece of wood, and often the makings of legends. This race has seen so many stars, it could create its own universe. It’s looking to add one more to that illustrious cast today. But who will it be? Plus, there’s the Dash and two more Group races to get stuck into. It’s Derby day’s Four To Follow.

     

    Le Freak

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    2:00 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Chic Colombine @ 15/2 (Unibet)

    Despite only two three-year-olds in the race, they have a decent record in the race with three wins in the last ten years. Chic Colombine is the pick of the bunch. With a generous 12-pound allowance, a liking for soft ground and coming back down from Group One company, she should outclass her rather out of form rivals.

    One of those out of form rivals, is Astral Beau who should prove better with a second bite of the cherry. She was a close third in this race last year on firm ground, but the ease should suit her better. For some reason, she wasn’t at all good at Newmarket in the Dahlia and it should be more of a decent contest, with a bit of form from Charyn in the Sandown Mile backing her up. 9/1 (BetVictor, Unibet).

     

    A Regal Gesture

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    2:35 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Regal Reality @ 9/2 (General)

    If there’s one horse suited to Group Three level, it’s Regal Reality. He has a good record at this level, with five wins out of nine. He won this race last year, the only race he won last season. It could be a sign that he is aimed at this race, but that’s whether he’ll break from the stalls well. He can manage all types of ground, so the extra juice that Epsom seems to have won’t bother him at all.

    And again, I find myself coming back to Royal Scotsman. It was obvious he was outclassed at Group One level in the Lockinge, so a drop two grades is a big plus. He’s also top rated, so can’t be written off too soon either. It will be a challenge to see whether he will suit Epsom, but two wins at Goodwood should put him in good stead. Decent chance, who is being chipped away at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    Soft And Sly

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    3:45 – Aston Martin “Dash” (Premier Handicap) – Silky Wilkie @ 4/1 (General)

    The main area to bet for this race is the pace map. Silkie Wilkie is drawn high, which has produced three winners in the last ten years and it’s often where you need to be. He’s drawn next to two runners who should make the running on the rail. Follow those in and he should have a decent shot. He didn’t run too badly at Musselburgh. He finished second in last year’s contest and is a massive eight pounds down. Should run a blinder today on the weights evidence.

    Dream Composer is also one who’s drawn next to the pace. He’s in between Antiphon and Democracy Dilemma., but may be held up for a run, which could help him up a slight decent in the final 100 yards. He can easily handle the softer ground, which should also aid him. He’s still at a fair weight with five pounds taken off him. Big race incoming from Dream Composer at 10/1 (William Hill).

    The Bell Conductor is one who should produce a big run at a big price. Drawn next to Antiphon, he should be able to latch on to the pace and go well down the helter-skelter of five furlongs at Epsom. Epsom is an unknown, but soft ground should help him, as his last win was on bottomless. He’s a similar profile to Dream Composer and should go well for Northern raider Craig Lidster. 20/1 (William Hill, Betfred).

     

    Angelic Dodger

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    4:30 – Betfred Derby (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 9/2 (General)

    City Of Troy really disappointed at the Guineas. But it’s rather the same argument with Ylang Ylang. He may be wanting a step up, but it just may be too much. Even though he’s by Justify, he only ran, and won, once at a mile-and-a-half.

    Stablemate Los Angeles is far better qualified for this race. He is by Derby winner Camelot, currently unbeaten, won a recognised trial and has a mile-and-a-half throughout his family. The form hasn’t been tested form the Leopardstown Derby Trial, yet he was Group One winner over a mile-and-a-quarter at two. Staying pedigree is in his bones and, on paper, looks a stronger chance than City Of Troy.

    Ancient Wisdom cannot be discounted. Despite being beaten by six lengths at York, he looks to be a better horse over a mile-and-a-half. The Dubawi curse was broken by Ezeliya yesterday and can be matched as Ancient Wisdom’s mare also achieving over a mile-and-a-half. He’s the best to come out of the Dante, and esteemed trail. 6/1 (General) may be made to look foolish.

    Voyage is also steeped in Derby history. His grandsire Galileo has produced multiple Derby winners, and he’s by Derby winner Golden Horn. His family have been prominent over a mile-and-a-quarter, but that golden touch of Golden Horn could make him stay the distance. He’s the least experienced horse in the field with one run and one win, but the form has been backed up by two horses further down the field. Certain each-way claims at 25/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    It’s the most anticipated classics of the season, as he we head to the Downs. Epsom hosts the 245th Derby on Saturday, but today it’s the turn of the fillies. The Epsom Oaks should provide some clues for the showpiece event, but is still a high quality renewal. Plus a great undercard to tag along too, including the Coronation Cup.

     

    A Mega Story

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    2:00 – Betfred Woodcote Stakes – Megalithic @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Two things need to match in order for a horse to have a chance. Good form and good breeding. Ideally, a sprinter’s family as this is over six furlongs. Megalithic cost 220,000 guineas and is from a predominantly seven furlong family. He has black type too, which is an added bonus. Only one horse has tested the form of the Salisbury novice, and the fifth placed horse went out and won. It signals quality, so Megalithic could go well here.

    End Of Story also makes appeal. He won his first race on testing ground, so will be more than glad that the ground has eased from his debut at Thirsk. His debut produced three winners and is by the smart sprinter Bungle Inthejungle and has bred Group One winner Winter Power. The signs look good for Kevin Ryan’s two-year-old. 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Forever A Softie

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    2:35 – Trustatrader Handicap – Al Mubhir @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Whenever soft is in the title, Al Mubhir is usually near. His usual stomping ground is the King Richard III Cup at Leicester, but goes near whenever the ground is soft. He’s been dropped a pound after disappointing performance at York. The ground was good that day, so will appreciate ease in the ground today.

    Fantastic Fox performed well when finishing third in the 2022 edition, but not so well in 2023. He can handle the track on that evidence. With a claimer on board, he comes down to a previous winning mark of 92. He has gone well on soft ground before, plus firm ground, so preference shouldn’t be a worry. Decent shout at 10/1 (William Hill).

    Bopedro has been incredibly well done by the handicapper after a third place finish at York. He’s been dropped a pound after a decent performance, which makes him even more appealing. He won an Irish Cambridgeshire on similar ground and has won off the same mark before. Epsom’s an unknown, but should go well off the mark. 11/1 (William Hill).

     

    Old Favourites

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    3:10 – Coronation Cup (GROUP ONE) – Emily Upjohn @ 11/8 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    This is Emily Upjohn’s first race of the British season and was a little disappointing. But the big thing that she has in her locker is she won the race last year and loves Epsom, as her first race of the season. She has won on the ground before and the small field will suit her. She’s already top rated, but the mares allowance puts her four lengths ahead of her nearest rival Luxembourg.

    Hamish has been dealt a harsh blow by the markets. It’s clearly his trip, he won’t be pulled out because of the ground and regularly outclasses Group Three rivals. Despite his success at that level, he’s never won a Group One, but came second in an Irish St Leger. He is destined for Group One’s and has been a long time coming. 15/2 (William Hill).

     

    Diamonds In The Rough

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    4:30 – Betfred Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Rubies Are Red @ 7/1 (William Hill, Betfred)

    In order to find these diamonds, I’ve had to search and eliminate as best as I can. Despite Ryan Moore taking the ride on Ylang Ylang. Despite people saying she’s crying out for further, she’s not bred to go a mile-and-half. Ezeliya is, but the form doesn’t back her up. Forest Fairy is bred for the distance, but lacks experience.

    Rubies Are Red, however, has everything in her favour. Brilliant breeding, out of Red Evie who bred Arc winner Found, Oaks third Divinely and Best In The World, who in turn bred Oaks winner Snowfall. Another half furlong and Rubies Are Red would have caught the lagging You Got To Me and will more than relish the mile-and-a-quarter trip. Despite not breaking her maiden she looks tailor-made for Epsom.

    Another small diamond is Secret Satire. York has a knack for providing Epsom winners, and last year’s winner did cause an upset in the Musidora. Despite being bred by a sprinter, her mother offers her the attempt to go further. Coming on from York she should settle better and look more professional here at Epsom. 12/1 (General).

    But one shining light in all of this is Noel Meade’s Caught U Looking. Fourth in the Salsabil, she would have preferred a little more give in the ground like Epsom should have. She’s by Derby winner Harzand, which is a massive positive. She has lots of mile-and-a-quarter running through her bloodline and will be a threat. Stall One may have other ideas. Still worth a go at 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!