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Tag: dublin racing festival

  • Four To Follow – Dublin Racing Festival: Day Two

    Four To Follow – Dublin Racing Festival: Day Two

    What and incredible day’s racing yesterday, with Majborough, Final Demand and Galopin Des Champs all putting on impressive performances to shake up the Cheltenham markets and stirring the souls. More on offer at the Dublin Racing Festival today, and there may be a few to take on as well.

    Burn Baby Burn

    1:10 – Ladbrokes Novice Chase (Grade One) – Ballyburn @ 5/6 (General)

    After Sir Gino wiped the floor with him, people dismissed Ballyburn as a good chaser. That’s simply not correct, he’s not good enough over two miles. The likelihood is that he will now go to the Brown Advisory now the two-and-a-half mile chase is a limited handicap. He faces stablemate Impaire Et Passe who has a Grade One in his book, but Ballyburn can stay this trip and he will still improve more with his jumping. He’s not a forlorn hope.

    Keep an eye out for Croke Park. Once muted as a fantastic buy and a potential Gold Cup horse, he’s yet to reach those heights. However, in his chasing record he is three from three picking up two Grade One’s in the process. Yes, Mr Mullins dominates this meeting but Gordon Elliott horses are still good enough at this level. A two-time Grade One winner should not be 16/1 (William Hill).

    Open The Bordes

    1:40 – Tattersalls Ireland Novice Hurdle (Grade One) – Kopek Des Bordes @ 11/10 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    The Supreme is still very much an open race at this stage, and many will have noted Kopek Des Bordes at the start of the season being the number one pick for this race. Only one run over hurdles saw how big of an engine he has, even his jumping was a little sketchy. He will improve for that debut run and the form has been franked by Kawaboomga. A big performance here, puts him right in the picture.

    Shocks A-Plenty

    2:10 – Dublin Chase (Grade One) – Quilixios @ 12/1 (General)

    It’s a question of why I should back them at the top of the market. Gaelic Warrior has a poor record here and is an untrustworthy horse in general. Marine Nationale has never looked the same since returning from injury and Solness did not strike me as a horse that can repeat that Grade One feat. El Fabiolo may be a little rusty on return as well.

    So I’ve opted for Quilixios who is a very good horse in his own right. He comes back from a break but was last seen finishing second to Jonbon, who has franked the form, and was ahead of Solness who also boosted that form. He thrashed Marine Nationale in the Barberstown Castle Chase at the start of the season and may provide another Grade One shock.

    And running on for a place will be the Champion Chaser, Captain Guinness. Henry de Bromhead has the best record of not winning this race, placing in most of these renewals since it’s inception. It does take a while for Captain Guinness to find form, but often runs a good race in behind so that he’s finely tuned for the Spring assignments. Discount at your peril at 33/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

    Old Reliable

    3:20 – Irish Champion Hurdle (Grade One) – State Man @ 11/8 (BetVictor)

    Paul Townend has chosen State Man for a few reasons. One, there is no Brighterdaysahead. Two, he’s top-rated even with Lossiemouth’s allowance. Three, he knows that this is State Man’s final chance at glory before Constitution Hill. Lossiemouth will have her days, but State Man knows his way around Dublin and Leopardstown. Get the odds-against whilst you can, because he’s still the king in Ireland.

    The very best of luck!

  • Five To Follow Dublin Racing Festival Day One

    Five To Follow Dublin Racing Festival Day One

    The road to the Festival starts now. After Cheltenham we have a double helping of trials over in Ireland with the highly prestigious Dublin Racing Festival. Plus Grade One action in the UK comes in the form of the Scilly Isles Novice’s Chase. Jam-packed action on the way.

    Dublin Racing Festival

    Victory Shout

    1:15 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade One )– Sounds Victorious @ 7/1 (William Hill)

    This race often throws a slight upset to proceedings, with only four favourites winning in the past 10 years. However, there does seem to be a trend with horses winning over two-and-a-half miles particularly over Christmas and New Year. Sounds Victorious ticked that box when getting off the mark over hurdles at Fairyhouse on New Year’s Day. He has the pedigree to stay further and often a Mullins second or third pick comes up trumps at this meeting.

    At a price, I like Sommesky. Henry de Bromhead is often the bridesmaid at the Dublin Racing Festival with Willie Mullins taking all the plaudits. But Sommesky can fly under the radar at a big price. He improved stepping up in trip winning at Limerick impressively by 6.5L over Christmas and also has a three-mile pedigree. Worth a place at 20/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Lady Of The Land

    1:50 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade One) – Lady Vega Allen @ 100/30 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    There’s been a lot of chat around Lady Vega Allen, more than stablemate Sainte Lucie. It’s clear that Willie Mullins and the team like her a lot and expect a lot of potential to come from her once she grows further into her racing. Last time over course and distance she was narrowly beaten by a short head to Hello Neighbour. With Mullins the trainer to follow, Lady Vega Allen can go one better and land her first big prize.

    If You’re Young Enough…

    2:55 – Irish Arkle Novice Chase (Grade One) – Majborough @ 4/6 (William Hill, Unibet, Boylesports)

    I immediately fell in love with Majborough when he made his debut at this Festival last year and was even more impressed, not just in the Triumph Hurdle but, on chasing debut. Despite Ile Atlantique making big strides over fences including landing the Racing Post Novice Chase and the highest rated in the field, it’s clear that Majborough is an impressive talent as a novice chaser at five-years-old.

    Champion Once More

    3:30 – Irish Gold Cup (Grade One) – Galopin Des Champs @ 4/7 (Unibet)

    He will win. Galopin Des Champs is the most talented chaser this decade. Unbeaten at Leopardstown and an outright champion, the rest won’t lay a glove on him.

    But who will finish in behind, is the real question of the race? I’ve gone with Monty’s Star to place in the top-three. He was beaten by Embasssy Gardens at Tramore, in a slight shock given that Tramore is Henry de Bromhead’s local track but this progressive eight-year-old is consistent. Whilst he may not grab a Grade One the best he can finish is runner-up. He ran a cracker at the Punchestown Festival and was runner-up at Cheltenham too. Arguably with that run behind him he should improve and finish best of the rest at 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports).

    Sandown

    Baie All The Way

    2:35 – Scilly Isles Novice’s Chase (Grade One) – Jango Baie @ 5/6 (General)

    Whilst I have been impressed with Handstands, I don’t consider him to be Grade One material. Whilst Jango Baie, looked like a professional making his debut at Cheltenham. Without Impaire Et Passe in the line-up it becomes a much easier task for the Seven Barrows team and is top rated. Kalif Du Berlais looks for the hat-trick but untried at two-and-a-half miles casts doubt.

    The Very Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day Two

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. After the almighty shock of Marine Nationale being downed by Il Etait Temps and the excellent majesty of Galopin Des Champs, it ended up being a disappointing day for the page yesterday. But we look up and head into a new day, armed with the best tips around.

     

    Leopardstown

    Warrior Has A Weakness. FACT.

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    1:10 – Novice Chase (Turner’s Trial) (Grade 1) – Fact To File @ 2/1 (General)

    If there’s one weakness that Gaelic Warrior has, it’s jumping right-handed. He may have been flawless last year over hurdles, but chasing is a whole different aspect and in a high-quality field, every mistake is costly.

    Fact To File thrashed Zanahiyr over Christmas by 17 lengths, and over C&D. He seems primed to head to the Turner’s, whereas stablemate Gaelic Warrior doesn’t.

    Grangeclare West is one who has been overlooked in the field after winning a Grade One is a high-quality field. Whilst his destination may be over further, he won’t mind stepping back in trip and 9/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports) is far too big. A Fact To File & Grangeclare West reverse forecast may be the bet of the race.

     

    Gallop To Glory

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    1:50 – Tattersalls Novice Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 18/5 (BetVictor)

    If it hadn’t been for a heavy fall at the second last, Farren Glory would have blitzed the field in the Formby Novices’ Hurdle. The form is clear that he wouldn’t have beaten much after Florida Dreams disappointed at Musselburgh yesterday. He’s still a Grade One winner all in all and Ballyburn did show a chink in his armour on debut, and also didn’t beat much in a maiden hurdle at Leopardstown.

     

    You Know What I’m Thinkin’?

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    3:20 – Leopardstown Handicap Chase (Grade Three) – Inothewayurthinkin @ 6/1 (General)

    Inothewayurthinkin brings plenty of quality form to the table in this race. A novice still, he’s finished behind Gaelic Warrior twice. He’s slightly up in distance, which won’t trouble him at all. His first handicap mark is generous enough and can make a big impact in a big handicap.

    Heart Wood also has standout novice form, including finishing behind Grangeclare West before he backed it up in a Grade One. With that sort of form, and not being beaten that far behind Grangeclare West, the handicapper took into account his previous run when not up to it against Blood Destiny. He’ll handle the trip and is generously priced at 8/1 (General).

    Lucid Dreams could run a big race, over an untried trip for John Patrick Ryan. He ran a great race behind Uncle Phil in the Dan & Joan Moore and showed signs of staying potential. It’s a big ask and a big hike in distance, but his last win was comfortable over two-and-a-half miles and can recreate that winning feeling under a good claiming ride. On the drift, however, now 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Musselburgh

    Hear The Thunder

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    3:35 – Scottish Champion Chase (H’cap Chase) – Thunder Rock @7/2 (William Hill)

    There’s no doubt Gavin Sheehan has had the season of his life. Multiple big race wins has just shown how talented a jockey he really is. It’s possibly why Max McNeil and Olly Murphy have chosen him to part with Thunder Rock, with Sean Bowen back to riding on Monday and Adrian Heskin over in Ireland. After disappointing in the Paddy Power Gold Cup, he’s back in a ‘lesser’ race where he doesn’t carry top weight and gives him a fighting chance.

    And it wouldn’t be Musselburgh without Scottish-trained winners. Lucinda Russell and Derek Fox are the leaders in their respective championships at the track and saddle Corrigeen Rock. He finished second on New Year’s Day over two-and-a-half miles and the step back in trip off a pound higher mark, but there looks to be plenty of improvement from him. Generous at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. All the stable stars come out to strut their stuff before they stuff the British at Cheltenham. It’s always a good indicator to see where each Willie Mullins runner will be heading to in March, but there is a bit of value to be found in the slightly more open novice races. Plus there’s a decent card at Sandown to keep an eye on in today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Grades Count

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    1:20 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Loughglynn @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    It’s telling which horse Paul Townend picks to ride in each race for Mullins, and the market is always keen to latch on. I feel though, he’s chosen the wrong horse. Predators Gold hasn’t raced above two-and-a-half miles and was beaten, in heavy ground, last time out. The inexperience may show here.

    Loughglynn is a far more accomplished novice. His win at Grade Two level at Limerick over Christmas showed that this horse has an engine to stay. It won’t be as boggy as Limerick, so has momentum to build on from his maiden win at Punchestown. Well backed Jetara has been running against the girls so far and might find this race a bit too hot.

     

    Mullins & McManus

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    1:50 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade One) – Majborough @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Once again Townend has opted to go for the Gigginstown colours in Storm Heart, who looked like a Grade One juvenile when obliterating his rivals in the mud.

    But there was talk of Majborough early in the season and I’ve been excited to see this horse appear. It’s a sign you’re a good horse when JP McManus buys you. It’s even better when he sends you to Closutton. It becomes even more exciting when you’re first race in Ireland is in a Grade One. If that’s how much connections think of him, there must be something in the water.

     

    Sandown

    Patron Only

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    2:35 – Scilly Isles’ Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Le Patron @ 7/2 (General)

    Le Patron is the only Grade One winner in the field. And despite Harry Cobden saying that Hermes Allen was at his best in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day, he still got beat. Le Patron won in bottomless over two miles, but he seemed at his best when winning over C&D back in November. JPR One gave the form a boost when winning the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago.

    The other big trend is that Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this race since 2009 and it’s unclear if this will be a stepping stone for Hermes Allen to the Festival. This is a race that Le Patron has been trained for.

     

    Racing West

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    3:10 – Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – West Balboa @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    West Balboa always comes alive in handicaps at this level, and she seems primed once more. After finishing way back in the Long Walk field, she’s had a rest and is back under top weight. Tristan Durell takes off a crucial three pounds to make her mark a little more accessible and she can out race this field in these conditions, which could set her up nicely for a shot at the Pertemps.

    Good Luck Charm was an outside chance in the Lanzarote at Kempton but outran her odds to finish fourth and within a length to favourite Impose Toi. Stepped up in distance, she remains on the same mark and is weighted towards the very bottom of the field. She’s been priced more fairly at 10/1 (Boylesports) but has a huge chance of running to them this time around.

    Equinus won by five lengths at Aintree way back in October and has had some respectable finishes in class two company. James Turner has been booked once again, and conditions will suit the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse. Extra places will useful if backing this horse at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    Dublin Racing Festival Tips Diamond in Leopardstown rough

    The Dublin Racing Festival is on our doorstep in what is the final signpost on the road toward the Cheltenham Festival.

    Ireland’s top trainers have prepared their top horses for two top days of entertainment, all kicking off with the Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Novice Hurdle.

    With Sandown’s Grade 1 card on the same day, here are a few horses to keep onside on Saturday.

    1:20 Leopardstown – Predators Gold @ 13/8 with William Hill

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    In the opener, Predators Gold is a horse I have had on my radar all season and connections have opted to step the five-year-old back up in trip to a more suitable distance.

    After his debut success over hurdles, jockey Paul Townend said he got a feel that made him think he was a Grade 1 horse and that was put to the test on his next start when he finished second to Caldwell Potter in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle.

    The conditions that day were attritional, though he dealt with them well and showed that he is a horse who can compete at this level.

    Of his five rivals, none have proven Grade 1 form in the book, though the horse who could improve to outrun his odds is Stellar Story who beat both Ile Atlantique and Caldwell Potter in the two-mile bumper.

    However, with this uncertainty about the rest, Predators Gold looks like the one who could stamp his mark on the staying novice hurdle division.

    3:00 Leopardstown – Joyeux Machin @ 20/1 with William Hill

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    Paul Nolan’s Joyeux Machin is returning to Leopardstown for the first time since his second to Facile Vega in a bumper back in December 2021, and he could be well treated off 136.

    The seven-year-old has run over fences since the middle of 2023, though he has failed to reach the heights that he promised as a novice hurdler.

    Although returning from fences to hurdles isn’t necessarily positive, his third behind Inthepocket from his debut over hurdles is a nice piece of form and it’s only been six months since he last ran over hurdles.

    His opening success over obstacles saw him finish strongly to beat Viva Devito, a horse who bolted up on his next start in a maiden hurdle, over two miles and he is still unexposed over three miles having won by seven lengths in May 2023 before his second to Minella Crooner over fences.

    He has to put his last race well behind him, but his stint over fences has yet to convince, so a return to hurdles could see him put his best foot forward.

    4:10 Leopardstown – The Folkes Tiara @ 6/1 with Boylesports

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    Although he benefitted from the departure of Path D’Oroux, the way The Folkes Tiara he won at Leopardstown on Boxing Day was very taking.

    He jumped beautifully coming into the home straight and did well to see it out with a few fast-approaching rivals in behind.

    Furthermore, the eight-year-old was second to Final Orders over course and distance before he improved 17 pounds in December 2022 and he was then a good third to Dinoblue – a subsequent Grade 1 winner – in a two-mile handicap at Punchestown.

    He is a nice improver and could continue to go that way off a workable mark.

    4:10 Leopardstown – Grey Diamond @ 18/1 with William Hill

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    Not many horses have moved from Sam Thomas to Gordon Elliott, though Grey Diamond is one who fits that criteria and could hit the frame at a big price.

    The 10-year-old last won off a mark of 135 when bolting up at Haydock in facile fashion, so his mark of 136 – as well as Danny Gilligan’s five-pound claim – puts him on a competitive mark.

    He was given plenty to do from the rear on his first two starts over in Ireland, though his last outing was promising as Jack Kennedy wasn’t asking many questions on the turn for home.

    The Gris De Gris gelding is a good horse on his day, as shown by his third to Amarillo Sky and Fugitif at Cheltenham in November 2022, and he should be a fresh and firing horse on his third run for Elliott. Although this means I am putting up two horses in one race, both are big enough to play each-way.

    British Runners

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    As for the racing over in the UK, three horses look interesting over at Sandown.

    The first comes in the 1:25 at Sandown as Diplomatic Ash looks like a big price at 16/1. The five-year-old is having his handicap debut and showed plenty of promise in novice hurdles behind Walks Like The Man and Idy Wood. A mark of 115 looks lenient and he has a nice pedigree as his mare, Carrigeen Lechuga, is a half-sister to Minella Indo and also achieved a rating of 130 on the track.

    Over an hour later, I think Hermes Allen (11/8) could be too good in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase at 2:35. His run in the Kauto Star was good behind Il Est Francais and a drop back to two-and-a-half miles shouldn’t be a worry. He is the Saturday NAP.

    Finally, in the £100,000 handicap hurdle at 3:10, I’m a fan of Transmission at 7/1 for Neil Mulholland. Of course, the recovery of Joe Anderson took all the limelight after his success at Plumpton, but the nature of his overall performance was very good. His maiden hurdle form with Inthepocket and Joyeux Machin suggests 125 is a lenient mark.