Best Of Bets

Tag: Betfred Epsom Derby

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: La-La Land

    Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: La-La Land

    It’s time for the biggest Classic of the year, the Derby. The race, which is defined by a single piece of wood, and often the makings of legends. This race has seen so many stars, it could create its own universe. It’s looking to add one more to that illustrious cast today. But who will it be? Plus, there’s the Dash and two more Group races to get stuck into. It’s Derby day’s Four To Follow.

     

    Le Freak

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    2:00 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Chic Colombine @ 15/2 (Unibet)

    Despite only two three-year-olds in the race, they have a decent record in the race with three wins in the last ten years. Chic Colombine is the pick of the bunch. With a generous 12-pound allowance, a liking for soft ground and coming back down from Group One company, she should outclass her rather out of form rivals.

    One of those out of form rivals, is Astral Beau who should prove better with a second bite of the cherry. She was a close third in this race last year on firm ground, but the ease should suit her better. For some reason, she wasn’t at all good at Newmarket in the Dahlia and it should be more of a decent contest, with a bit of form from Charyn in the Sandown Mile backing her up. 9/1 (BetVictor, Unibet).

     

    A Regal Gesture

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    2:35 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Regal Reality @ 9/2 (General)

    If there’s one horse suited to Group Three level, it’s Regal Reality. He has a good record at this level, with five wins out of nine. He won this race last year, the only race he won last season. It could be a sign that he is aimed at this race, but that’s whether he’ll break from the stalls well. He can manage all types of ground, so the extra juice that Epsom seems to have won’t bother him at all.

    And again, I find myself coming back to Royal Scotsman. It was obvious he was outclassed at Group One level in the Lockinge, so a drop two grades is a big plus. He’s also top rated, so can’t be written off too soon either. It will be a challenge to see whether he will suit Epsom, but two wins at Goodwood should put him in good stead. Decent chance, who is being chipped away at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    Soft And Sly

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    3:45 – Aston Martin “Dash” (Premier Handicap) – Silky Wilkie @ 4/1 (General)

    The main area to bet for this race is the pace map. Silkie Wilkie is drawn high, which has produced three winners in the last ten years and it’s often where you need to be. He’s drawn next to two runners who should make the running on the rail. Follow those in and he should have a decent shot. He didn’t run too badly at Musselburgh. He finished second in last year’s contest and is a massive eight pounds down. Should run a blinder today on the weights evidence.

    Dream Composer is also one who’s drawn next to the pace. He’s in between Antiphon and Democracy Dilemma., but may be held up for a run, which could help him up a slight decent in the final 100 yards. He can easily handle the softer ground, which should also aid him. He’s still at a fair weight with five pounds taken off him. Big race incoming from Dream Composer at 10/1 (William Hill).

    The Bell Conductor is one who should produce a big run at a big price. Drawn next to Antiphon, he should be able to latch on to the pace and go well down the helter-skelter of five furlongs at Epsom. Epsom is an unknown, but soft ground should help him, as his last win was on bottomless. He’s a similar profile to Dream Composer and should go well for Northern raider Craig Lidster. 20/1 (William Hill, Betfred).

     

    Angelic Dodger

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    4:30 – Betfred Derby (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 9/2 (General)

    City Of Troy really disappointed at the Guineas. But it’s rather the same argument with Ylang Ylang. He may be wanting a step up, but it just may be too much. Even though he’s by Justify, he only ran, and won, once at a mile-and-a-half.

    Stablemate Los Angeles is far better qualified for this race. He is by Derby winner Camelot, currently unbeaten, won a recognised trial and has a mile-and-a-half throughout his family. The form hasn’t been tested form the Leopardstown Derby Trial, yet he was Group One winner over a mile-and-a-quarter at two. Staying pedigree is in his bones and, on paper, looks a stronger chance than City Of Troy.

    Ancient Wisdom cannot be discounted. Despite being beaten by six lengths at York, he looks to be a better horse over a mile-and-a-half. The Dubawi curse was broken by Ezeliya yesterday and can be matched as Ancient Wisdom’s mare also achieving over a mile-and-a-half. He’s the best to come out of the Dante, and esteemed trail. 6/1 (General) may be made to look foolish.

    Voyage is also steeped in Derby history. His grandsire Galileo has produced multiple Derby winners, and he’s by Derby winner Golden Horn. His family have been prominent over a mile-and-a-quarter, but that golden touch of Golden Horn could make him stay the distance. He’s the least experienced horse in the field with one run and one win, but the form has been backed up by two horses further down the field. Certain each-way claims at 25/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    Four To Follow Epsom Derby Special

    After a Frankie Friday, it’s the big day on the Downs. Derby Day. It’s one of the most unpredictable yet. Arrest went into favouritism last night, but is he the one to win the big race? And who will win the the Dash? All those questions will be answered, as we take a look at four of the Best Bets on Derby Day.

    12:50 – Betfred Diomed Stakes (Group Three) – Kolasi @ 3/1

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    The aperitif to the Derby is the Diomed. And it doesn’t look the best of renewals, but Kolasi looks the best horse in the race. She is the only three-year-old, and is receiving a lot of weight from her rivals. Her form from four starts suggests that she’ll like the firm ground, and that she can handle undulation. There are plenty of unknowns and this is a step up in class. But the field, on paper at least, don’t look the best quality and are there for the taking.

    1:30 – BETFRED DERBY (GROUP ONE) – DUBAI MILE @ 18/1

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    The more I Iook at this horse, the more I think he’s overpriced. He’s a Group One winner as a two-year-old, beating Arrest by a head, and he’s versatile to the ground. On ratings, he’s only behind Auguste Rodin and Arrest. Charlie Johnston has been firing in the winners and has an excellent strike rate. Plus, Ahmad Al Shaikh, the owner, has had a decent record in the last three Derby’s, including Khalifa Sat and Hoo Ya Mal. His breeding suggests he’ll fall short of this trip, but Johnston horses always dig deep and can push further. The Dam’s sire was High Chapparal, so he does have some Epsom blood running though him. He has a decent draw in stall five, and it will be fascinating to see how it plays out.

    I also like White Birch, for John Joseph Murphy. He lost by a neck to The Foxes at York and on the replay, he seems to be the one to take out of the race. Passenger looked to be staying on late, but didn’t seem to carry on much after the winning post. The Foxes looked to tough it out over the trip and not go much further. White Birch looks to be the one to take out. He’s by Ulysees, which means he will stay. His half-brother stays 1m 3F, which suggests he’ll get the trip. He’ll have to overcome a tricky-ish draw in stall two, but he looks to be one to watch at an each-way price of 12/1.

    Personally, I think the principles are hyped up. Auguste Rodin finished 12th of 14 in the Guineas. That’s the worst result of a Derby trial for any horse. How can he be deemed favourite? Favourites also have a terrible record in the Derby, in recent years. Aidan O’Brien can work miracles, but after such a disappointing run, he can’t be trusted. Arrest ran well at Chester, and he has the Frankie factor, but the ground is massively against him. John Gosden said Arrest will need a lot of rain overnight. He won’t get it.

    Which means by default, Military Order gets the nod. His stamina will be tested on firm ground, but he is a full brother to Adayar, and that points him in the right direction to win. But I think the ground might catch him out. He’ll certainly have a crack at the top three, so he gets in the tricast.

    Tricast: Dubai Mile, White Birch, Military Order

    2:10 – Princess Elizabeth Stakes (Group Three) – Prosperous Voyage @ 11/8

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    Prosperous Voyage may not have returned well, but everything seems to be in her favour here. She relishes firm ground, she’s a course winner and the top-rated horse. She will have blown the cobwebs away at Newmarket and should be back to her best at Epsom and Frankie will make amends for Derby disappointment.

    3:20 – Epsom DASH (Heritage Handicap) – Clarendon House @ 15/2

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    It’s a little bit of a lottery the Epsom Dash, and it’s the same this year. But it seems the stars have aligned for this horse. Stall two has proven to be a good draw over the years, he’ll be right up with the pace, and has won five times on firm ground. The stable are starting to turn a corner with a winner last Friday and a second during the week, and Danny Muscutt may be riding on a high from his Derby heroics. If not, he’ll want to win this race. The form from the York dash played out last week, with Mondammej just beaten narrowly by Chipstead. It could work wonders here.

    Each-way plays are the way to go for the Dash, and Lihou is one of them. Middle to high draws are the favoured places to be, Lihou is drawn in 18. Plus, he is at an advantage, winning at C&D earlier this season at the Riband meeting. That was on soft ground, but he can perform on firmer. He’s also, only 2lbs higher than that win in April, and is running fresh off a narrow second at Goodwood. A good play at 12/1.

    Another play is Look Out Louis who has things in his favour over the flying five. In September, he won in similar conditions over the five furlongs at Haydock, and is only one pound higher than that winning mark. He looks to have blown the cobwebs away since the Chester run, and can be back to his best on the Downs, from a decent draw in six, at 12/1.

    The very best of luck on Derby Day!

    (And, Come On United for the FA Cup!!)

    All prices are from Betfred, proud sponsors of the Epsom Derby

  • 2023 Betfred Derby Festival: 14/1 Epsom punt fancied by ITV pundits

    2023 Betfred Derby Festival: 14/1 Epsom punt fancied by ITV pundits

    As June blazes in, summer classic season hits top gear with this weekend’s Betfred Derby Festival at Epsom.

    In a month which concludes with Royal Ascot, first, the 1m4f trip on the Downs takes top billing.

    With 15 races sandwiched into the card, we’ve picked three to feature at varying prices.

     

    Friday 16:30 Betfred Oaks, Soul Sister – 11/4

    Beginning with Friday’s Oaks, Running Lion‘s form is impressive but without a drop of rain, Soul Sister is the filly for us.

    As Frankie Dettori galloped away to win the Musidora at York last month, the 14/1 SP of John and Thady Gosden’s promising lady was left in tatters.

    Romping away on turf that had at last firmed up, too much was placed on her form from Newbury.

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    Instead, a debut winner at Doncaster last October, the youngster proved she can handle the soft ground, but will much prefer the going good.

    Everything points to said Epsom going being Good to Firm this weekend and Soul Sister has the groove at 11/4 with William Hill.

     

    Saturday 13:30: Betfred Epsom Derby, White Birch – 14/1

    Turning to the Festival’s main event, whilst Auguste Rodin, Military Order and Passenger are jousting to be Derby favourite, White Birch is very much still our long-price fancy.

    And we have sound company in our pick.

    Indeed, ITV Racing duo Francesca Cumani and Leonna Mayor have been vocal in their support in JJ Murphy‘s pretender to the Derby crown.

    In his last outing, the colt was a storming runner-up to The Foxes in The Dante and with a few extra furlongs could have taken the win.

    A double winner on Irish turf his two races prior, he will be keen again to put a show on British soil.

    The son of Ulysses – a Juddmonte winner himself in 2016 – White Birch has the pedigree to perform on the big stage.

    At a still very tasty 14/1 with BoyleSports, the grey looks excellent value.

     

    Saturday 14:10: Princess Elizabeth Stakes, Astral Beau – 8/1

    Finally, we move to the following race on the card, the Princess Elizabeth Stakes with a good e/w consideration for Astral Beau.

    Now targeting races just over the 1m mark, the 4yo travelled well to place third in the Howden last time out.

    Of more significance perhaps, the mount of Shane Foley was a winner over the slightly shorter distance in the Doncaster Mile earlier this spring.

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    Still preferring 7f, Astral Beau has nevertheless won four of her last six  – placing in all outings.

    We just get the feeling trainer Pam Sly could be on to a good thing here.

    The four-length winning margin in Yorkshire proved there could be a stayer in this horse yet, at 8/1 with 888Sport.

  • Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    The endless weeks of build-up have drawn to a close as it is the week of the Epsom Derby.

    The two-day event around the undulations of the Surrey-based track is just a few days away and we at Bestofbets.com can’t wait.

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    For me, the last few weeks of the Ante-post Analysis series have seen some good success; THE FOXES winning the Dante and CAIRO placing in the Irish 2000 Guineas are the main highlights.

    And as for last week’s The Top Three column, well, we will be discussing that on Friday.

    I won’t get too ahead of myself as you have to take the peaks and troughs with a good degree of level-headedness in this game, so I’m sure I’ll come crashing back down to Earth sooner than I would like.

    Hopefully, it is not this week as I have a few early fancies for the Epsom Derby weekend.

     

    Keen on the Queen

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    The Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday looks to be a cracking contest at the time of writing with 10 entered for the £100,000 race.

    Although another one of my cliff horses, Prosperous Voyage, is at the head of the market, my head has been turned by a different four-year-old filly.

    QUEEN AMINATU shaped like a filly going placed last time out on the all-weather as she stayed on behind an on-song Sacred over seven furlongs at Lingfield.

    That form, in my eyes, is worth a good deal in a race like this as she was three-wide around the bend having finished third to Sandrine, a Group 2 winner, and Sacred, a horse who has all the attributes of a Group 1 filly when she is 100%.

    Furthermore, on her only start at a mile, she blitzed her competition at Lingfield, a race that included Oscula, a three-time Group 3 winner.

    Although most of her form is on the all-weather, her second on good ground over a mile at Haydock last season gives me hope that she will handle conditions on Saturday.

    If she can continue her progression, it will take a good one to beat her and the 8/1 available with BetVictor is a good price.

     

    One better than Silver

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    It’s almost like I’m living in a world of deja-vu as my next fancy was put up here two weeks ago before being declared a non-runner.

    Alas, having heard that this has always been the target, I’m willing to go back in on SILVER SWORD at 12/1.

    His case is obvious on one piece of form alone as his fifth to Military Order three starts ago reads extremely well, something that could see another boost if Godolphin’s Derby hope obliges earlier on the card.

    Following that run, a good second to Empress Wu and a facile victory at Southwell has only bolstered his claims.

    Now returning to 1m2f, something that should suit on pedigree as his dam (Aurora Grey) won three times over two miles, he could make light work of his official rating of 82.

    It is a competitive field and he does need one horse to come out to run, but hopefully that occurs and he can light up the Downs.

     

    Bring down the House

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    And finally, in a showering of repetition, my final ante-post play of Derby Weekend is a horse whom I put up at York two weeks ago.

    He finished fifth on seasonal reappearance at the Dante meeting, something I hope puts him spot on for the Dash on Saturday.

    That’s right, I’m sticking with CLARENDON HOUSE at 7/1 with William Hill.

    Despite running a career-best according to RPRs, the five-year-old was dropped two pounds by the handicapper for his last run.

    For a horse who travelled like the winner for three furlongs, received three reminders from Daniel Muscutt, and just emptied on his first start for 240 days, the run at York was very pleasing.

    On pure numbers, his second at Beverley two starts ago when eight pounds wrong at the weights with Acklam Express (3rd) was great and the second to Raasel last season, a horse who would go on to improve 15 pounds, when giving five pounds away shines brightly.

    Now rated 100, just one pound higher than his last winning mark, the test of Epsom should suit, and he is my fancy for the Dash on Epsom Derby weekend.