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Tag: ayr gold cup

  • Four To Follow ā€“ Gold Stars

    Four To Follow ā€“ Gold Stars

    Itā€™s another busy Saturday of racing, with racing from both sides of the border. On the West Coast of Scotland, itā€™s the Ayr Gold Cup for the big sprinters. But down in Berkshire, itā€™s all about the two-year-olds in the Mill Reef. Three Group races plus the big handicap of the day feature in todayā€™s four to follow.

    Ayr

    Mere Mortals

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    3:00 ā€“ Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group Three) ā€“ Englemere @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    This yearā€™s renewal of the Firth Of Clyde is very tricky. Looking at the trends of winners for the last ten runnings, you have to have some experience. Very rarely does a horse, whoā€™s one from one, win. Thatā€™s led me to fall on Englemere. She has plenty of experience at such a young age, but she has had three victories, two coming on good ground. She was last seen behind Flying Childers winner Aesterius at Longchamp, and with the form backed up and the step up in trip looking to suit her, she will be in the finishing pack.

     

    Heā€™s Electric Gold

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    3:35 ā€“ Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Hā€™cap) ā€“ Jordan Electrics @ 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Jordan Electrics has proved to be a revelation this season. He has risen through the ranks, and established himself as a top level sprinter at the ripe old age of eight-years-old. Most of his wins this season came at Hamilton, but produced a good finish when second to Jm Jungle at York last time out. Today, heā€™s drawn near pace Angle Lethal Levi in stall 17, which will prove crucial if heā€™s to end up towards the winning post at the end of six furlongs. Plus heā€™s upgraded from Bronze, which he was third in last year, to Gold this year.

    Other potential winners include Strike Red, who ran a creditable eighth at The Curragh having to navigate a wall of horses. Before that he was in a bunch finish in the Constantine Handicap in the Ebor Festival. Hold up horses have had success here, just ask Bielsa, so drawn over on the far side in the least pacy part of the draw might not necessarily be a bad thing for him. 16/1 (William Hill).

    Dare To Hope was the winner of the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon a month ago, and the handicap might just work out for him. Heā€™s risen, on average, three pounds per run, which puts him low in the weights for his run here. Drawn next to Lethal Levi, he can easily latch on for pace and can more than improve on his seventh at the Ebor Festival. 28/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Newbury

    The World All Over

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    1:30 ā€“ World Trophy Stakes (Group Three) ā€“ Annaf @ 7/2 (General)

    Ignore his latest Group One blip, and focus on a more acceptable race and Annaf makes more sense. Yes he wasnā€™t good in the Sprint Cup, on his first run back since winning a Group Two in the Middle East. But heā€™s now dropped to an acceptable level, into a Group Three. Last season, at this time he won two races, including the Portland and the Bengough Stakes so Autumn is his time to shine in Britain. Just hope he doesnā€™t carry the same condition as he did at Haydock.

     

    Brian

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    3:15 ā€“ Mill Reef Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Brian @ 6/1 (General)

    Brian.

    An incredible name for what seems to be an incredible horse. Heā€™s racked up two wins already, including the Ā£100,000 Somerville Auction Stakes at Newmarket. And was charging home late in the day behind Symbol Of Strength in the Sirenia at Kempton. He has a liking for soft ground, which is what the ground reads at Newbury this afternoon. Definitely one to upset the powerhouse of Godolphin.

    The very best of luck!

  • Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm ā€“ The Top Three

    Ayr Gold Cup | A Scottish Storm ā€“ The Top Three

    Ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend, The Top Three could be on for a potential four-in-a-row if all three selections win later today.

    This is thanks to Liberty Laneā€™s victory at Doncaster last week as my final selection of the St Leger Festival, a race that certainly raised my heart rate higher than I had previously expected.

    Securing a 100%-win rate from four selections isn’t easy, but I thought I’d start this week’s piece with a little bit of humorous hope.

    Away from my beckoning career as a stand-up comedian, three horses look like interesting candidates at both Ayr and Newbury today including a 14/1-shot in the opening Scottish contest.

     

    1:15 Ayr ā€“ Stormbuster @ 14/1 General ā€“ 1pt EW

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    Thereā€™s something about three-year-olds in open grade handicaps that always catches my eye and the same goes for Stormbuster at 14/1 in the opening one-mile contest at Ayr.

    The well-bred Dubawi colt is out of Barshiba, a Group 2 Lancashire Oaks winner in 2010, making him a full-brother to the 2015 Group 1 Juddmonte International Stakes victor Arabian Queen.

    So far, the Andrew Balding-trained colt hasnā€™t shown that genetic ability too well on the track, however, he bolted up by five lengths on his fourth start as a two-year-old and finished third to Isaac Shelby on debut; he was even sent off 7/1 for the Group 1 Vertem Futurity and ran well for a long time despite being on the wrong side of the track in attritional conditions.

    This year, just six rivals have finished behind him in four races, however, there are excuses for these performances.

    Firstly, his first two runs occurred over 10 furlongs, a distance he has yet to truly see out, and in the Listed Dee Stakes at Chester in May, he travelled well before colliding with two horses and soon stopped quickly.

    Two poor performances in quicker conditions are understandable as he has a preference towards softer ground, something connections agree with as he was a non-runner at Salisbury earlier this month for the unsuitable official going of good to firm.

    Back on a slower surface and off a lowly mark of 89, with his four-pound three-year-old allowance, today could be the day to catch him in a winnable handicap.

     

    1:30 Newbury ā€“ Nymphadora @ 10/3 with William Hill ā€“ 1pt win

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    The well-known colours of St Albans Bloodstock Limited make up two of the five runners in the Group 3 World Trophy Stakes at Newbury, yet itā€™s the longer-priced runner of the duo, Nymphadora, that Iā€™m siding with.

    Firstly, soft ground and five furlongs are what she thrives off, as shown by her two victories this season at Chester and York; she even tried to Live In The Dream, a future Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes winner, four pounds in weight at Chester last year when second on good-to-soft ground.

    This liking towards soft ground is an unknown for her owner-mate, Sense Of Duty, who heads the market despite drifting out to 2/1 from 5/4 throughout the week.

    Due to a setback, the last time Sense Of Duty appeared on track was at Newcastle over six furlongs when an impressive winner of the Group 3 Chipchase Stakes; connections have their eyes on the Group 1 Champions Sprint Stakes in October, so this race looks like a nice preparation to get her 100% for that target.

    Sense Of Duty has yet to race over five furlongs or soft ground, and with her dam, Margaretā€™s Mission, a one-mile winner on good-to-firm, it would take a braver man than myself to be backing her today.

    With that in mind, both Raasel and Nymphadora are the horses that will enjoy the ground, with preference falling to the younger filly who should be fresher and receives three pounds from Michael Applebyā€™s six-year-old gelding.

     

    3:00 Ayr ā€“ Navassa Island @ 4/1 with William Hill ā€“ 3pt win

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    Readers of the Ante-post Analysis column or watchers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast could be sat on a nice ante-post docket for Navassa Island in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde Stakes at 3:00 today.

    Of course, you canā€™t eat value, but the Michael Oā€™Callaghan-trained two-year-old has more than halved in price to 4/1 for the Ā£40,000 contest.

    For full reasoning behind her chances, click here for the link to Wednesdayā€™s piece, but now we know the full field, let’s see what the pace of the race could be like.

    The likely pace angles look to be provided through Exponista (stall five), Dorothy Lawrence (stall six) and Imperiality (stall seven) while the likes of Bellarchi (stall three) and Raqiya (stall two) have made all with success in the past.

    That is plenty of pace in a nine-runner juvenile field, something that should benefit Navassa Island as her second to Porta Fortuna on debut came from an off-the-pace ride.

    Hopefully, I have done my calculations correctly because if I have, Navassa Island looks like an exciting prospect in the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde.

  • Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    Four To Follow: Razing The Gold Bar

    As we near the end of the flat season, weā€™re starting to work out the best of the best. But thatā€™s put on hold for the moment, as we head up to Ayrshire for another big sprint handicap worth its weight in Bronze, Silver and Gold. The Ayr Gold Cup takes centre stage and Iā€™ve picked out three over the border plus one in the Mill Reef to make todayā€™s Four To Follow.

     

    Ayr

    Not Jumping just yet

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    2:25 ā€“ Ayr Silver Cup Hā€™cap ā€“ Jump The Gun @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    Jump The Gun returns to this race 10lbs lower than last time. He hasnā€™t had the most stellar of seasons, tumbling down the weights until a fantastic run last time out in a handicap at Doncaster. Heā€™s back up to a class two handicap and shouldnā€™tā€™ find it too difficult from stall 12. Last year he was denied a clear run, but a good break and a bit of luck will help him and William Pyle.

    Another horse low down in the weights who catches the eye is Aplomb for Eve Johnson Houghton. Very lightly raced this season, and returns to the Silver Cup seven pounds lower than last yearā€™s effort in sixth. A near miss last time out at Goodwood has him in good form, and has a nice each-way price on him at 11/1 (Betfred)

    And what is a big Ayr sprint handicap with a few Jim Goldie runners. The Renfrewshire trainer saddles three here, but I like Be Proud at a big price. His best efforts coming over the six furlongs, so excuse his run in the Racing League, and heā€™s on softer ground today. Mark Winn may have only had one win in the last two weeks, but he takes a crucial three pounds off here and has a chance at 28/1 (William Hill)

     

    Talking ā€˜bout my Generation

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    3:00 ā€“ Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group Three) ā€“ Great Generation @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    This race doesnā€™t really produce future classic winners, but it can produce some fairly decent type fillies. Sheā€™s unbeaten and won with plenty in hand last time out at Chester. Sheā€™s by Holy Roman Emperor and will like the cut in the ground today, as she has on her previous two runs. She poses a significant danger to the favourites and Iā€™m taking advantage of that.

     

    Raze the roof

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    3:35 ā€“ Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage Hā€™cap) ā€“ Orazio @ 15/2 (Betfred)

    The big one is headed by Orazio, who hasn’t turned up in the big sprints. Both runs in the Wokingham and the Stewardā€™s Cup were disappointing to say the least. But heā€™s back on sounder ground here for the Ayr Gold Cup. and has been kept fresh by Charlie Hills, which is a big plus in my books. Heā€™s drawn right near the rail in stall 23, and all these positives mean I just canā€™t look past the favourite.

    The next best in the race doesnā€™t come much closer than Significantly. He ran an absolute stormer in the Portland and has been rather underestimated all season. Heā€™s on the same mark as last weekā€™s run and heā€™s low in the weights. What more could Julie Camacho want? His performances in handicaps at this level this season have been 262, which puts him bang up there at the finish. Well found in the market at 9/1 (Betfred).

    Fast Response caught my eye when the declarations came out. His mark of 103 may look too much to handle, but Brandon Wilkieā€™s seven pounds puts him at a workable mark of 96, a pound above his winning mark in the Wentworth. He drops in trip to six furlongs after racing at seven this term, and wasnā€™t too far away in the Queensferry last time out. Interesting at 12/1 (Betfred)

     

    Newbury

    A small selection

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    3:15 ā€“ Mill Reef Stakes (Group Two) ā€“ Array @ 5/1 (Betfred)

    Winners of this race commonly come from a Group race last time out, particularly the Sirenia at Kempton. The one who follows that line of form is Array for Andrew Balding. He wasnā€™t too far behind Starlust on the Tapeta, but heā€™s back on a sound turf surface today. Heā€™s by No Nay Never and plenty of black-type runs in the family. Heā€™s improving all the time and can work the Sirenia form in his favour.

    The very best of luck!

  • Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Ayr Gold Cup | In Rohaan We Trust – Ante-post Analysis

    Following a break last week due to the Doncaster St Leger meeting, today sees a return for the Ante-post Analysis column ahead of the Ayr Gold Cup this weekend.Ā 

    Two horses are on my agenda ahead of tomorrow’s declarations for the Scottish track, so letā€™s dive in.Ā 

     

    Island could be in paradiseĀ 

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    In 2011, the Group 3 Firth Of Clyde went the way of Roger Sez for Tim Easterby and 12 years on, her filly by Territories,Ā Navassa Island, will be hoping to emulate her dam.Ā 

    The Michael Oā€™Callaghan-trained two-year-old caught the eye on debut in May when second in the Group 3 Fillies Sprint Stakes at Naas.Ā 

    She finished just a neck behind Porta Fortuna that day despite experiencing a tough route through the race; the winner has since won the Group 3 Albany Stakes at Royal Ascot before a runners-up medal in the Group 1 Phoenix Stakes and a good third in the Group 1 Moyglare Stakes.Ā 

    Fast forward two months and Navassa Island stepped up in trip to an extended seven furlongs at the Curragh where she ran well but seemingly didnā€™t see out the distance.Ā 

    Connections agreed with this view as they brought her back to six furlongs last month and was a comfortable winner at the Curragh; the second, Sheā€™s Quality, bolted up on her next start at Sandown and the third, Letsbefranksboutit, succeeded in the Group 3 Round Table Stakes 13 days later.

    A look through her pedigree suggests that soft ground could be fine, though this is an unknown, and at 10/1, Iā€™m hopeful of a big run from Navassa Island.Ā 

     

    Group horse in a handicapĀ 

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    This Flat season, high-rated horses have dropped into handicaps with a decent weight on their back to good effect; Ancient Rome at Glorious Goodwood and Equilateral at York instantly spring to mind.

    AlthoughĀ RohaanĀ has a slightly different profile to both mentioned examples, he still holds a good chance in Saturdayā€™s Ayr Gold Cup at 14/1.Ā 

    Firstly, the David Evans-trained five-year-old is four pounds wrong at the weights off a mark of 104 as the handicapper has dropped his mark since the entry stage thanks to two disappointing efforts.

    Despite this, with the rain set to hit the South Ayrshire track ahead of their premier Flat race of the year, he still holds good merit towards the top of weights.

    Once rated 116, the Mayson gelding last visited the winnersā€™ enclosure in October when a comfortable winner of the Group 3 Bengough Stakes on good-to-soft ground.

    Before that, he was a surprise victor of the Group 2 Sandy Lane Stakes on heavy and also won his first Wokingham Stakes off a mark of 112 on soft in 2021.

    Although Rohaanā€™s form this season leaves a bit to desired, he bounced back to his best having raced poorly ahead of last yearā€™s Wokingham Stakes victory, so there is precedent for him to improve considerably.

    At 14/1, he is a classy animal and could easily be the best horse on Saturday.