Brighton face Chelsea once again just six days after the two sides met in the FA Cup. In that game, Brighton surprised the Blues by winning 2-1 to progress to the next round of the cup. This time, they meet in the Premier League and Chelsea will look for a similar result to the reverse fixture at the start of the season. Cole Palmer broke a Premier League record that day as the first player to score four goals in the first half of a Premier League game as they won 4-2.
My tip for this game is backed with a lot of research as we have Both Teams to Score and a Caicedo Foul at 1.66.
Head to Heads
This is a fixture that recently has come up with thrilling games and it’s no surprise as both teams play attacking football which in turn leads to fouls which is great for our tip. Since Brighton were promoted to the Premier League in 2016/17, they started life in the top flight with a defensive mindset however as the years have gone by, the Seagulls have spread their wings and flourished. They have attacked teams confidently which paid dividends as they reached the Europa League knock-outs last season.
However, with attacking free flowing football can also lead to defensive frailties, as seen in Brighton and Chelsea’s respective 71% and 75% BTTS rates this season. The head to head record is even stronger as 12 of the last 14 meetings have seen both sides scoring so expect goals tonight. Brighton bounced back from a terrible 7-0 loss with their FA Cup win, however they will want to react strongly once again but this time in the league as they push from mid table to European places.
Caicedo Returns to the Amex
Former Brighton man, Caicedo has been one of Chelsea’s star players this season. He averages the most tackles in the Chelsea squad with three a game whilst unsurprisingly averages the most fouls in the squad at 2.1 a game. A crazy statistic is that the Ecuadorian has committed 1+ foul in his last 22 Premier League games, so we should expect the Chelsea midfielder to commit a foul against Brighton’s tricky attack. Rutter has been fouled at least once in his last 10 home games and Welbeck has been fouled at least once in his last eight home games.
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