Newcastle have the upper hand against Arsenal in the EFL Cup semi-final after a 2-0 win at the Emirates. With a place in the final at stake, if Newcastle hold their nerve, they will go through to the final at Wembley with a chance at their first trophy since the Championship title in 2017.
Arsenal will need to be smart to overcome the two goal deficit, so an offensive but disciplined game plan will be expected by Mikel Arteta. Brazilian midfielder Bruno Guimaraes should start the match and will look to break up play at any opportunity to stop Arsenal from scoring which has been known to be part of his game. My tip is Arsenal to win or draw the match, most corners and Bruno Guimaraes to commit 1+ foul at 1.86.
Arsenal in Form
Arsenal are currently the 2nd highest scorers in the Premier League with 49 goals. Their form of late has been impressive, even without the likes of Ben White and Bukayo Saka. Their xG (expected goals) is at an average of 1.63 per game and we expect them to carry on this form in such an important game for Mikel Arteta’s men on Wednesday night.
Arsenal have just come off the back of an emphatic 5-1 victory against Man City which puts them three points clear of Nottingham Forest in 2nd place in the league. They showed their class and looked more threatening than Man City. The Gunners had five separate scorers including Martin Odegaard, Thomas Partey, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Kai Havertz and Ethan Nwaneri which shows the majority of their squad are capable of scoring.
The First Leg
From the final score it looked like the game was comfortable for Newcastle, however it was anything but. Arsenal had 23 shot attempts but failed to score. They also had 70% possession and 11 corners to Newcastle’s one. It just didn’t seem to be Arsenal’s night as many chances were squandered. Thanks to goals from Alexander Isak and Anthony Gordon, The Gunners have a tough test if they are to reach the EFL Cup final. It should be an exciting game with so much on the line, they can’t afford to concede first and will have the majority of the ball, it would be a surprise to see them lose.
With Arsenal chasing the game and knowing their ariel threat in Gabriel and Saliba, we expect more corners for The Gunners.
Bruno Guimaraes
Now let’s talk about fan-favourite Bruno Guimaraes and his foul stats. First of all, he will start the match after missing the first leg due to suspension. The Brazilian has 36 fouls in the Premier League so far, that’s an average of 1.5 fouls per game. There have only been five games this season where Bruno has not committed a foul.
In the two EFL Cup games that Bruno had played 90 minutes in, he’s had two fouls each game which included the quarter-final win against Brentford and 2nd round victory on penalties against Nottingham Forest. He also committed two fouls in the win against Arsenal earlier in the league season.
Team News
Joelinton was seen wearing a knee brace as a precaution in the days building up to their game against Arsenal. He will have a late fitness test but I don’t think Newcastle will want to risk his injury getting worse. This will majorly benefit The Gunners as the Brazilian has been one of Newcastle’s strongest players in midfield this season and will look to bully and frustrate Arsenal.
Kai Havertz remains Arsenal’s only option up front, with the German having scored on Sunday against Man City. Arteta might want to start Ethan Nwaneri again, as the teenager has netted twice in his last two appearances. The youngster has featured in every game of the competition this season, except the first leg, where he missed out due to injury. We look forward to an interesting game with the winner of the tie going to Wembley in March for the final.
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