Tokyo 2020 Athletics: Key Races, Odds & Analysis

Full Tokyo Athletics Preview, Focusing on Sprints and Hurdles

As Tokyo 2020 enters its second week, the action switches to the Olympic Stadium with the Athletics program having got under way on Friday.

Even without fan attendance, the Blue riband races of the 100m will shape the first weekend of competition, and if anything, the women’s sprint race could draw greater interest than the men’s, the final taking place as it does on the second day of the schedule, for the first time.

Dina Asher-Smith remains Team GB’s biggest hope of Olympic gold on the track, and on paper, there is little to separate the Bromley Harrier and her perennial rival, Shelly-Ann Fraser-Pryce.

With the Jamaican currently evens to win her first Olympic 100m crown, her compatriot and defending champion Elaine Thompson-Herah however, has grown throughout the season. The two are evens and 5/2 for gold respectively, both with Betway.

But could Tokyo 2020 yet be Asher-Smith’s moment? A price of 11/2 with UniBet still looks very interesting. Her best chance however, could be in the 200m as defending world champion from Doha two years ago. Alas, Shaunae Miller-Uibo will be hard to beat having switched from the 400m, whilst American Gabby Thomas is making a late move for glory also. Nevertheless, the Briton is 9/2 – again with UniBet – to win 200m gold.

In the men’s 100m meanwhile, Team USA look well placed to regain The Fastest Man in the World crown, with Trayvon Bromell – like Fraser-Pryce – evens with SkyBet, MansionBet and Betfair. Moreover, If you fancy doubling up over both the men’s and women’s finals, a Fraser-Pryce-Bromell double with Bet365 will treble your money at 2/1.

Two of the other bigger duels on the track in Tokyo take place over 400m hurdles, for both the men and women. Having finally broken the world record in his own back yard in Oslo earlier this season, Norway’s Karsten Warholm is the strong favourite in his first Olympics at 4/9 Willian Hill or 2/5 with MansionBet.
World champ since 2017, Warholm however, will be pushed by American Rai Benjamin who has slowly hit form since the US trials. Odds of 5/2 accordingly are worth a look, in what will likely be sweltering conditions come race night.

In the women’s race, Sydney McClaughlin has become one of the stars of US track and field and will go head-to-head with compatriot and rival Dalilah Muhammad. The two have pushed each other over the past seasons, but as defending champion from Rio, the latter will not be giving her crown away lightly.
Whilst McClaughlin is 1/2 favourite with BetVictor, Muhammad is 3/1 with UniBet and the final could be one of Tokyo’s best races.

Finally, the US team’s other star attraction, Noah Lyles, is expected to romp home in the 200m despite a year of disruption due to Covid, and in his first Games, is 8/11 with SkyBet for victory.

In-depth look at the women’s 100m contenders

The women’s 100m offers a compelling mix of raw speed and championship experience, with multiple runners capable of a podium place. Bookmakers show a tight market between Fraser-Pryce, Thompson-Herah and Asher-Smith, which keeps value-hunters active.

Asher-Smith’s form and season bests make her a genuine hopeful for Britain, yet tactical execution off the blocks will be decisive in Tokyo’s technical heats. Bettors should monitor late market movement and running order before staking on any outright selections.

Men’s 100m: analysis of the favourites and challengers

The men’s field presents the classic USA-Jamaica rivalry with Trayvon Bromell, Noah Lyles and others in the mix for medals. Bromell’s early-season speed has shifted prices and created reaction in the exchange and fixed-odds markets.

For a cautious approach, consider market formats such as top-three or head-to-head matchups, which often offer more predictable returns than outright bets in sprint events. Research heat draws and lane allocations, as these can influence short sprints more than longer races.

Who to watch in the 200m and tactical considerations

The 200m requires a blend of top-end velocity and curve running skill, benefiting athletes who can maintain speed into the final straight. Names like Shaunae Miller-Uibo, Gabby Thomas and Dina Asher-Smith are all credible, but race rhythm and lane assignment are significant.

In-play markets can be particularly attractive in the 200m, where early sectional times and visible fatigue in semis give informed punters an edge. Keep staking conservative and avoid treating a strong heat performance as a guarantee of final victory.

400m hurdles preview: Warholm, Benjamin and rivals

Karsten Warholm arrives with a world record and clear status as favourite, yet Rai Benjamin and others have the form to mount serious pressure. The 400m hurdles combine speed and endurance, and any stumble can change medal prospects rapidly.

Odds such as Warholm 4/9 with William Hill reflect market confidence but do not remove the event’s unpredictability, particularly under hot conditions. Consider smaller stakes across multiple market types to spread risk responsibly.

Other headline events: 200m, relays and heat strategies

Relay squads and championship 200m races will provide drama later in the athletics schedule, with national depth often determining medal chances. Teams with reliable baton change practice and fasting sprinters tend to outperform on the day.

For bettors interested in relays, watch team announcements and reserves, because last-minute substitutions can materially alter a market. Relays are good for small, speculative stakes rather than heavy outright backing.

Betting angles: value bets and market movement

Value in athletics markets often appears when public sentiment overreacts to a single performance or injury news. Look for soft markets where bookmakers show an unusually short price for a popular name and a longer price for a consistent performer.

Use bookmaker comparison tools to identify discrepancies between operators and exploit margin differences without chasing unrealistic returns. Remember that value is about probability versus price, not wishful thinking.

How weather and time zones might affect performances

Tokyo heat and humidity can slow recovery between rounds, impacting athletes who run multiple events or rounds in quick succession. Time-zone adjustment matters for athletes coming from different hemispheres and can influence startle times and sleep cycles.

Check pre-race reports and athlete interviews for indications of how teams have prepared for climate and time differences, as this context often appears in markets before clear performance signals. Avoid impulse bets based solely on name recognition.

Responsible betting advice and age restriction reminders

Betting is for adults only — 18+. Always ensure you meet the legal age requirement before placing any wagers. Keep gambling affordable by setting deposit limits and sticking to a pre-defined stake plan.

Gambling should be entertainment, not a way to solve financial issues, and help is available if betting becomes a problem. Use self-exclusion and support services provided by licensed operators whenever necessary.

How to compare bookmaker odds and free bet offers

Comparing odds across bookmakers can find superior value or better terms for free bet offers, including shorter wagering requirements and favourable expiry windows. Look beyond headline freebies to the underlying terms and qualifying bets.

When assessing offers, consider how credit conversions, minimum odds and market restrictions affect expected returns, and prefer operators with transparent T&Cs and strong regulatory oversight. We list recommended bookmaker deals in our comparison tools for convenience.

In-play tips: timing stakes and watching the semis

Semifinals can reveal who is peaking for finals and present intelligent in-play opportunities for top-three or head-to-head markets. Place small, time-limited in-play stakes where you can monitor pace and condition directly on live streams.

In-play betting requires discipline to avoid chasing losses and should only be attempted with funds you can afford to lose. Keep stakes modest and rely on observation rather than emotion.

Market types explained for Olympic athletics bettors

Common market types include outright winners, podium finishes, head-to-head matchups and each-way or top-three selections, each carrying different risk and return profiles. Choosing the right market depends on confidence level and information advantage.

Each-way formats are often useful when a runner is priced up but faces strong competition; however, pay attention to the fraction and places offered. Understand the bookmaker’s rules for ties and dead-heats before committing funds.

Data points to track before placing a wager

Key data points include season bests, head-to-head history, reaction times, recent race frequency and injury reports, as these inform likely performance under championship pressure. Conditioning through rounds is especially relevant for 200m and 400m events.

Also track bookmaker market movement and press conferences, where coaches and athletes sometimes provide subtle indicators of form. Use this intelligence combined with comparison tools to make measured decisions.

How to manage a smart betting bankroll during the Olympics

Set a dedicated entertainment bankroll and decide on unit sizes before the Games begin, allocating a maximum percentage per bet to protect capital across multiple events. Avoid doubling stakes after losses and resist emotional wagers on home-country bias.

Record stakes and outcomes to learn from patterns and refine strategies for future championships, remembering that long-term profitability requires discipline, realistic expectations and responsible play. Seek help if betting behaviour escalates.

Post-event review: learning from results and improving strategy

After each round of finals, review your selections against outcomes to identify forecasting strengths and weaknesses, focusing on process over short-term gains. Note where odds reflected genuine probabilities and where markets mispriced runners.

Use post-event analysis to improve future staking plans and to better understand how variables like heat, lane and form affect performance. Such evidence-based learning reduces reliance on hunches.

Common questions on Olympic athletics betting safety

Am I legally allowed to bet on the Olympics if I am 18 or over in the UK?

Yes, if you are 18+ and using a licensed UK operator you may place bets, but always confirm age and jurisdiction rules before registering. Only bet with bookmakers regulated by recognised authorities.

How should I keep my gambling under control during the Games?

Set deposit, loss and session limits with your bookmaker, schedule rest breaks from betting and never chase losses; these steps protect both finances and wellbeing. Seek support if you notice problematic patterns.

Are free bet offers good value for Olympic markets?

Free bets can provide value but check qualifying rules, minimum odds and wagering conditions; sometimes smaller bets on mispriced markets deliver better expected value. Use comparison tools to find transparent, consumer-friendly offers.

What betting markets are safest for newcomers to athletics?

For newcomers, consider conservative markets such as top-three finishes or head-to-head contests rather than outright winners in wide fields. Small stakes on straightforward markets reduce volatility and learning costs.

Can I rely on statistics alone to win bets at the Olympics?

Statistics are essential but not sufficient; combine data with current form, heat conditions and other contextual factors for a realistic assessment. Avoid claims of “sure wins” and treat betting as entertainment.

How can I spot value in sprint markets?

Look for market overreaction to a single result, liquidity gaps between bookmakers and favourable running orders that benefit a specific athlete. Value is about probability versus price, so compare odds before staking.

What should I do if I feel betting is becoming a problem?

If betting causes distress, financial strain or behavioural change, use self-exclusion tools and contact UK support services such as GamCare for confidential help. Problem gambling support is available and encouraged.

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