Best Of Bets

Tag: york

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend and the Cesarewitch. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    It’s Not Winter Yet

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    3:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (GROUP ONE) – The Lion In Winter @ 10/11 (General)

    I was incredibly taken when seeing him last time out in the Acomb Stakes at York. It’s never really known as a trial race, but sometimes it is used before races like the Champagne Stakes or the National in Ireland. The Lion In Winter has been given a good break since then, and the form has worked out perfectly. Steady on with backing him for the 2000 Guineas yet, but I feel he has this race in the bag.

     

    And Are We?

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    3:40 – Ceasrewitch Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ndaawi @ 12/1 (General)

    An incredibly competitive handicap, but my main pick has been let off lightly. Ndaawi ran an impressive second to Nurburgring in the Galway hurdle, but is down a pound for running seventh in the Ascot Stakes on ground he didn’t like. With ground like this in the Autumn, he can make the light weight on his back work. Jumps trainers are getting an ever increasing affection for this race, like Willie and Emmet Mullins, etc.

    Talking of the latter, Jacovec Cavern represents one of the fancier being backed for the race. He finished close up to Busselton at the Galway Festival, which is often a great pointer to the latter Autumn marathons. He’s only been risen three pounds for his close run back in July and as a result is right down the weights. Hayley Turner can deliver on a big day and make it back-t-back wins in the race for E. Mullins at 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred).

    One who is surprisingly well-in on the handicap is Premiere Ligne. He’s been incredibly consistent all season, with one win and five places to his name, four of them seconds. He hasn’t been beaten by more than two lengths in his previous six runs and comes from the Cesarewitch Trial. An even bigger plus is the five pounds been taken off by an in-form claimer. Great each-way price at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    Strike It Hot

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    2:40 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Strike Red @ 13/2 (Betfred)

    A surprisingly disappointing season for Strike Red. He has only finished in the places once, but hasn’t had anything to show for last season’s performance. However, he loves York. One win and one place in four runs at the track shows that he isn’t bad. He also performs late on in his season, with four of his career wins coming in either September or October. He’ll love the soft ground and should finally get his elusive win. He also won this race in 2022 off a pound lower mark.

    The Bell Conductor may have most of his wins over five furlongs, but shaped well when winning over six at Chester last time out. He has a clear preference for soft ground and has progressed well enough to this level. He’s only been raised two pounds for the run and has a nice draw towards the stand side, which usually is a slight bias on soft ground. Well worth 25/1 (General).

    Hyperfocus is also one not to discount. It was a similar story last year when he finished second, despite the long odds, and history might repeat itself. Plus the softer it is for him, the better. He has won twice this season, albeit at class four level, but it shows that the 10 year-old has some fight in him left, and fought for second off a three pound higher mark last year. I’m not abandoning him at 33/1 (General).

     

    Chepstow

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    Beach Baby

    2:45 – Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Springwell Bay @ 7/2 (General)

    It seemed the natural progression for Springwell Bay to go over the bigger obstacles after a great season. The former staying hurdler drops back in trip, but should progress further in time. Another benefit is having Jonjo (& AJ) O’Neill as the trainer, with Jonjo, in the last five seasons, one of the more prolific trainers in Monmouthshire. Good pedigree for fences, he should be perfect first time out in the Autumn.

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    A Magical Dance

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    3:35 – Fillies’ Mile (GROUP ONE) – Ballet Slippers @ 14/1 (General)

    Writing this, I am still racking my brains over why Ryan Moore has ditched Ballet Slippers in favour of January. Ballet Slippers has soft ground form, which could be useful at this time of year. She’s bred magnificently out of the champion Magical and by super sire Dubawi, and her pedigree is top notch. And the form from her Ascot maiden has been franked when the second went and won last week at Haydock. She has the perfect blueprint to win this race and is an unbelievable price.

     

    York

    Who Are Ya?

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    2:40 – William Hill Finale Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Who’s Glen @ 13/2 (General)

    This small field looks a bit competitive, and I think I’ve spotted some value. Who’s Glen ran a very long way clear of a similar distance at Chester last time out, and won by 14 lengths. The handicapper has given him a fair weight to carry. He’s also trained by York’s current top trainer, Andrew Balding, who is currently +30 to £1 this season. An incredible record and has the beating of the top two in the market.

     

    Chepstow

    Blast Off

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    3:15 – Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Ryan’s Rocket @ 2/1 (General)

    At long last, the jumps are finally back! With a tricky little contest to get us underway. With no Paul Nicholls featuring, the winner could come from anywhere. But I think Ryan’s Rocket has every right to be favourite. He’s got plenty of form in the book, particularly from his maiden win at Taunton. He’s a half-brother to former Fergal O’Brien hurdler Greenlagh Girl, who is now a stayer of point-to-points. The only way is up for this exciting gelding.

     

    The Best Boy

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    3:50 – Unibet Veterans’ H’cap Chase – Good Boy Bobby @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    We love the old boys do their thing in these veterans’ chases. And one horse looks primed for this opening bout. Good Boy Bobby won this race off a pound lower mark last year, so is well-handicapped. His record fresh is seven from 12, and his record in October is four from six. To make that even more impressive, he’s unbeaten at the track in his three starts. Not just a good boy, but a good bet.

    Another Chepstow lover is Wayfinder. In 2022, he completed a hattrick at the track, and has since not been able to replicate that form. But he still boasts a four wins from nine starts record, which also includes two seconds. He has a decent record fresh and acts well early on in the season. Still a bit of value at 13/2 (William Hill).

     

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Four Selections

    York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Four Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own Country as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day four is jam packed with handicaps, including both the Melrose and the £500,000 Ebor handicap, the richest in the country. Who will see their name printed on a ticket to Melbourne t around 3:30, and what about the others. Find out below.

     

    Big Race View

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    The Ebor handicap is the big race of the day and there are plenty of factors and fancies in this race, so I’ve managed to whittle it down to about three. Criteria for me is performed on good-to-firm ground, won over a mile and four and at least raced over a mile and six, the trip for the Ebor.

    Magical Zoe could follow in Absurde’s footsteps by competing and winning in the two different racing classes. Known for her efforts behind Ebor winner Absurde in the County Hurdle, she won over a mile and five breaking her flat maiden. She then competed in a Group three at Fairyhouse, finishing a respectable third. Her mark is in the hundreds, and she has the shortest route around coming out of stall one.

    Fairbanks was a narrow loser at Glorious Goodwood, but comes into this handicap two pounds well-in, which is a huge advantage. Not only has he won over a mile and four, but has done it over a mile and six and proved that firm ground is suitable for him last time out. However, he’ll have to overcome a wide-ish draw to win.

    Naqeeb has been looking to build for this race. After below-par group efforts, he put in a good performance at Goodwood over two miles. As a three-year-old he won over 14 furlongs at Haydock, so he’s no novice to this kind of distance. And last time out also proved he can cope with conditions too.

    Big Race Bet: Ebor Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Magical Zoe @ 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Fairbanks e/w @ 12/1 (General), Naqeeb e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    Not top of the card, but the Julia Graves Roses Stakes is a hot little contest with form to watch out for.

    Despite Big Mojo’s fourth (blame the draw), Celandine has backed up the form for Mr Lightside. Clearly bred to sprint, he has to overcome stall 13 which is a negative. But with two-year-old races, they don’t often follow the form of the older horses and maybe Mr Lightside’s speed will get the better of the field.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – Mr Lightside @ 11/4 (BetVictor)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    For this handy handicap I’m looking at the Constantine handicap, the newest heritage handicap on the calendar.

    Summerghand is looking for a third victory in the race, and he isn’t without a shout even if he has been below par in the majority of his races this season. Maybe a heartfelt wager would be suitable.

    But Elmonjed has pretty much everything going for him in the race. He is drawn in stall two, where the bias has been all week. Can handle the firm conditions and finished third in the Macmillan Sprint earlier this season. On top of that he’s only been raised three pounds for his latest win at Windsor and has risen one pound throughout his three-year-old career, after dipping into the eighties. A clear improver and a favourite worth backing.

    Handy Handicap Bet: Constantine Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Elmonjed @ 11/2 (General), Summerghand e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Strensall Stakes (Group Three) – See The Fire @ 5/2 (William Hill), T/Cast: See The Fire, Alyanaabi, Phantom Flight
    14:25 – Melrose Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Spaceport e/w @ 16/1 (General), Going Remote e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill), Mo Ghille Mar e/w @ 25/1 (General)
    15:00 – City Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Audience @ 11/8 (William Hill), F/Cast: Audience, Lake Forest
    15:35 – Ebor Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Magical Zoe @ 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Fairbanks e/w @ 12/1 (General), Naqeeb e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
    16:10 – Constantine Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Elmonjed @ 11/2 (General), Summerghand e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill), Harry Three e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)
    16:45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – Mr Lightside @ 11/4 (BetVictor)
    17:20 – Finale Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ron O @ 7/1 (William Hill), Oviedo e/w @ 17/2 (William Hill), Chasing Aphrodite e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Three Selections

    York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Three Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own County as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day Three is all about the Nunthorpe Stakes. It’s Big Evs vs Asfoora for the third time this season. Who’s going to come out on top? Find out with selections for all seven races below.

     

    Big Race View

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    This looks to be a two horse race once again between Britain and Australia. It’s 1-1, so who will come out on top this time?

    As ever the draw is key. And this year far side runners, or low numbers, are preferred. This means that Asfoora has a big advantage over Big Evs who’s drawn one form the stand side rail. With the rain coming, does that suit Big Evs a little, I think not. However, they should run out a belting finish

    Out of the others Starlust has particular appeal to me, given that his record at York is near perfect (211). Asking him to repeat his wins this season at Group One level might be too much. But he should run on for a place.

    Big Race Bet: Nunthorpe Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Asfoora @ 13/8 (William Hill), Starlust e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports). Asfoora/Big Evs – F/cast. Asfoora/BigEvs/Starlust – T/cast

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    Once again this looks another tight York two-year-old contest, but a Goodwood one-two-three should be the form to follow. Winners of this race have come from the Glorious meeting, which is often the form to follow in the Gimcrack.

    Big Mojo was getting closed down by Aesterius in the final furlong at Goodwood. But, I’m adamant when I watch the race again he should hang on for the extra furlong. He steps up to the extra furlong today, he should be able to deliver on his big promise from Goodwood.

    Billboard Star has a lot on his side too. His form from Newmarket has been backed up by Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny and Aomori City at Goodwood. That second came on good-to-soft ground and he should finish for a place on that basis.

    Cool Hoof Luke finished ahead of Billboard City in the Vintage Stakes and should take liking to good ground, and all ground, if going on sires form. This looks to be the race of future sires and expect it to be competitive, with plenty of value on offer.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Big Mojo @ 7/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Billboard Star e/w @ 18/1 (888Sport, Boylesports), Cool Hoof Luke e/w @ 20/1 (General)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    We’re taking a look at the fifth race on the card, the mile-and-a-quarter Fillies’ Handicap, where there’s definitely value to get stuck into.

    Albeit, it’s with the favourite, but Power Of Destiny should not be up a solitary pound for finishing within a head last time out at Windsor. Ground-wise he should be able to go on anything good to good-to-firm, which should be the ground reading by about 12:30 in the afternoon. One pound plus a consistent debut season should not go ignored.

    Neither should Bint Al Daar, becasue she finished second to Karmology in her one but previous start. Who, if it wasn’t for Scenic, would have finished much closer in the Galtres Stakes. As it happens, she went and won her race at Wolverhampton for team East and is only up four pounds for the run. She should have ability to run all grounds if that win is to go by.

    Handy Handicap Bet: York EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Power Of Destiny @ 5/1 (General), Bint Al Daar e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Sky Bet Heritage Handicap – Lieber Power @ 8/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports), Track Of Time e/w @ 40/1 (William Hill, Boylepsorts)
    14:25 – Lonsdale Cup (Group Two) – Quickthorn @ 12/1 (General), Quicktorn/Point Lonsdale/Vauban – T/cast
    15:00 – Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Big Mojo @ 7/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Billboard Star e/w @ 18/1 (888Sport, Boylesports), Cool Hoof Luke e/w @ 20/1 (General)
    15:35 – Nunthorpe Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Asfoora @ 13/8 (William Hill), Starlust e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports). Asfoora/Big Evs – F/cast. Asfoora/BigEvs/Starlust – T/cast
    16:10 – EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Power Of Destiny @ 5/1 (General), Sound Angela e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill, Unibet), Bint Al Daar e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill)
    16:45 – Convivial Maiden – Ultrasoul @ 9/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Arabian Angel e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Bowen Island e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill)
    17:20 – Mile Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Dosman @ 9/2 (General), Mount Teide e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Tokenomics e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Two Selections

    Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Two Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own County as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day Two is full of mouth-watering contests, including the Yorkshire Oaks which sees an open field, including a progressive three-year-old, the one-two from the Irish Oaks and a fans favourite. Who come out on top? Find out with selections for all seven races below.

     

    Big Race View

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    This is a very open renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks, with no definite favourite and plenty of horses with support.

    Queen Of The Pride has excelled this season. She cut her teeth at Haydock by winning the Lester Piggott Stakes narrowly in June and scorched clear of another improving horse, Tiffany, in the Lancashire Oaks. The long straight suits her, but firm ground is an area she hasn’t covered before and could be her Achilles heel.

    Content has been another progressive horse this season. She was the best three-year-old in the Pretty Polly Stakes, then was denied a clear run in the Irish Oaks but rallied well to finish second. However, it looks like she wants rain having raced on fast ground three times and never won.

    You Got To Me may have been a surprise winner of the Irish Oaks, but she held on well and has a little boost from Royal Ascot too. The firm ground should suit her front-running style, but front runners aren’t usually favoured at York, yet Ryan Moore judged City Of Troy’s ride from the front perfectly yesterday.

    Or can Kieran Shoemark finally break his big race curse and deliver Emily Upjohn for the Yorkshire Oaks. She has been disappointing, barring her terrific run in the Pretty Polly. But I favour the three-year-olds more.

    Out of the four top names mentioned, Content is the pick. With a clearer run she should have caught You Got To Me at The Curragh. That’s not to say she’ll face a big fight from a lot of rivals, but she looks a tough horse.

    Big Race Bet: Yorkshire Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General), You Got To Me e/w @ 9/2 (General) – F/CAST

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    This looks a tight contest for the fillies. Plenty of angles from a mixture of races make it hard to find the right form race to follow. The history of this race also varies with no one path being the right one. However, those bred by sprinters seem to be the ones who come out on top.

    In which case Miss Lamai makes sense. She has two wins to her name and has some Listed form to her name too. Bred by Mehmas, she is a future group sprinter and the step up to six won’t bother her at all. Karl Burke also has a good record in the Lowther, winning it twice since 2019.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Miss Lamai @ 8/1 (William Hill)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    The Clipper Handicap is often very volatile. Very few at the top of the market win this race and we’ve been treated to a few shocks in recent years. 40/1 Ropey Guest last year and 28/1 Cruyff Turn in 2021 hammer home that there is potential throughout the market.

    Two grab attention for me. James McHenry has had a consistent season with a win and two seconds, including losing to La Trinidad at Thirsk last time out. He remains on the same mark whilst La Trinidad suffers with a penalty. He also has won on firm ground which is a big plus and steps up into the big handicap company with a workable weight.

    Metal Merchant started his season with a win in the Spring Cup but has fallen under the radar in requisite runs. However, he’s been dropped a pound for finishing a length behind in the International Stakes at Ascot in fourth and also comes into the race two pounds well-in. Signs look postitive for this York racecourse debutant.

    Handy Handicap Bet: Clipper Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – James McHenry e/w @ 11/1 (General), Metal Merchant e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Miss Lamai @ 8/1 (William Hill), Tales Of The Heart e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    14:25 – Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes – An Outlaw’s Grace @ 4/1 (William Hill), Territorial Knight e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill), Sensorium e/w @ 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)
    15:00 – Clipper Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – James McHenry e/w @ 11/1 (General), Metal Merchant e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)
    15:35 – Yorkshire Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General), You Got To Me e/w @ 9/2 (General) – F/CAST
    16:10 – Galtres Stakes (Listed) – Sea Just In Time @ 9/4 (William Hill, Unibet)
    16:45 – EBF Nursery – Spell Master @ 7/1 (William Hill), Original Outlaw e/w @ 13/2, Hot Property e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    17:20 – British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Alfa Kenellic @ 8/1 (William Hill), Sunfall e/w @ 11/1 (General), Queen Of Mougins e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • Ebor Festival 2024 | Day One Selections

    Ebor Festival 2024 | Day One Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own County as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day One is full of mouth-watering contests, including the Juddmonte International which sees City Of Troy face his biggest challenge yet on the Knavesmire. Can he step up to the challenge? Find out with selections for all seven races below.

     

    Big Race View

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    This is by far the best renewal of the Juddmonte International for a long time. 13 runners head to post, led by the Ballydoyle superstar City Of Troy. What challenges await him, and is he up to the challenge?

    First he has to overcome his issue of hanging to the right. At Epsom, he was led away by a loose but there was no excuse at Sandown. It’s a half-mile straight at York, and his big galloping style will definitely suit and he should iron out that issue. And despite not running on firm ground, he’s by two horses that relish fast conditions. He’s value whilst he’s odds-against.

    Looking down the market, Ambiente Friendly should also run a good race. Bred for this distance by a miler and out of an unbeaten mile-and-quarter mare, he should relish the drop in trip after two tough Derby tests.

    Value is undoubtedly with the French horse, but not Calandgan. For me, Zarakem ran a stormer of a race in the Prince of Wales’s at Ascot, and was close to running down Auguste Rodin. It’s his preferred distance and seems to go on any ground. I don’t think he’ll win, but he’ll be mighty close.

    Big Race Bet: Juddmonte International Stakes (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy WIN @ 11/8 (General), Ambiente Friendly e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill), Zarakem e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    This race has been deemed an open and shut case by the bookmakers. There’s a 15.5 point gap between second favourite The Lion In Winter and third favourite Wimbledon Hawkeye. Only one favourite has won in the past 10 years and Charlie Appleby has never won the race. Aidan O’Brien has not won the race since 2000, so it makes sense to look elsewhere.

    Yaroogh is my choice, as all horses from the last ten years have come out of either maidens or novices races. He’s one of the more experienced after last in a hot Newmarket maiden in April, then readily won at Haydock with the form backed up from that race. He’s yet to prove himself on firm ground, but he’s progressive and should be stepping up to middle distances at three.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 22/1 (Boylesports)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    This meeting is peppered with handicaps, with Northern trainers all aiming there horses throughout the season for these valuable races. No less so than in our first race the Symphony Handicap. This sprint race has been won seven times out of the last 10 years by Northern trainers, and one horse has been aimed specifically for this race.

    Jm Jungle, who finished a tight third in last year’s contest hasn’t had a great season. But he is racing off a mark of 88, four pounds lower than last year. He’s also in a significant place in the draw. He’s in the low numbers, where there is an identified pace setter. Knowing he’s been targeted at this race, on a lower mark than last year and in a nice draw make the choice a bit easier in a highly competitive race.

    Handy Handicap Bet: Symphony Group Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Jm Jungle e/w @ 10/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Symphony Group Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Jm Jungle e/w @ 10/1 (General), Tees Spirit e/w @ 25/1 (General), Squealer e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill)
    14:25 – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 22/1 (Boylesports), Diablo Rojo e/w @ 25/1 (General), Rajeko e/w @ 25/1 (General)
    15:00 – Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group Two) – Los Angeles @ 13/8 (William Hill)
    15:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy WIN @ 11/8 (General), Ambiente Friendly e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill), Zarakem e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)
    16:10 – Stayers Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Knightswood @ 15/2 (William Hill), Forza Orta e/w @ 9/1 (General)
    16:45 – ITM Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Got To Love A Grey @ 11/2 (Betfred, Boylesports), Designer e/w @ 10/1 (William Hill)
    17:20 – Nursery Handicap – Artagnan @ 6/1 (William Hill), Cayman Tai e/w @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Three tips on Day Three of the July Festival, plus a John Smith’s Cup tip at York

     

    Newmarket

    Greek God

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    3:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Often one of the two-year-old races to watch, the Superlative has given light to the careers of Native Trail and City Of Troy in recent years. This year, there aren’t many horses to pick from impressive breeding lines so form lines are extra important. The Parthenon enjoyed a nice win at Gowran last time out, and his form line works out slightly better than his Godolphin counterpart.

    Look out for Pentle Bay who was best of the rest behind Bedtime Story at Royal Ascot. He’s one of a couple of horses to win on giving ground in his early career and has plenty of staying pedigree for the future. 5/1 (William Hill).

     

    Totally Mad

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    4:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Most people would associate seven furlong handicaps with Ascot, but the Bunbury Cup is always a competitive feature of the July Festival. Awaal finished third in this race last year, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind winner Biggles. He’s back down to a mark of 102, the same when finishing second in the Lincoln handicap in 2023. He’s three pounds lower than his mark last year for this race and Simon & Ed Crisford enjoyed a double on yesterday’s card and can build on that today.

    Darkness has less success at this level of handicapping, but has one crucial thing in is favour. He’s two from two on the July course, horses for courses they say. His two wins on the course both came on firm ground, but when in France he has won of soft ground too, so there shouldn’t be any problems there. He can defy a six pound penalty today and make a good showing at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Yorkshire has two things that I really like about him. One: His name. Two: His low weight. Despite not performing at this level of handicapping in the past, he comes into this race with a win over seven furlongs already. Plus he has a versatility with ground, winning from good-to-firm to good-to-soft. Only three pounds above his last winning mark and has the weight of God’s Own County behind him. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Re-Match Point

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    4:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Vandeek @ 7/2 (Unibet)

    Plenty of rematch’s in this ultra-competitive July Cup. I’m siding with the Crisford’s once again with their stable star. Vandeek wasn’t up to his best at Haydock, but given it was his first run of the season, I’m willing to let that slide. After he missed the Royal meeting, this was the clear target for Vandeek and should put in a first-class performance.

    Mill Stream has been very consistent in sprint races this season. Out of three he’s finished 2, 1, 3 respectively. The furthest he got beat was by Khaadem at Royal Ascot last time out, and only by one-and-three-quarter lengths. He’s versatile on all ground and seems to come alive during mid-summer. 12/1 (General).

    This will be Jasour’s first time in open company, with the older horses involved. Again, he’s been quite consistent in two runs, with a win and third in the Commonwealth Cup. With a six pound allowance for three-year-olds, the younger horses are always preferred. Particularly, with 5 of the last 10 winners all three-year-olds. If he’s on his day again, he can run a big race at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    John Smith’s Keats

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    3:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Epic Poet @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Always one of the most exciting handicaps of the summer, in my opinion, the John Smith’s Cup. Epic Poet is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race, being three pounds well-in and a second last time out. He remains on the same mark of 97 and has a tendency to perform on soft ground, going on his career wins which all happened in France. He can overcome an outside draw, similar to Farraaj 10 years ago.

    Not many favourites, or single-price runners win this race. Looking down the market Paradis looks a nice each-way selection. Despite not being placed on a mark of 95, he’s down in the lower half of the weights. He loves give in the ground, and he’s got good-to-soft today. If he can overcome his big field no shows, then he has a big shout. 12/1 (William Hill).

    Dual Identity has the benefit of having a win to his name already this season. Despite being a Sandown specialist, he has won over ten furlongs. He’s down to a mark he can handle, and has the benefit of a claimer on board. He’s a little bit well-in, which may put him above some of the other runners. Can he win away from Sandown for the third time? 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: North And South

    Four To Follow: North And South

    In the build up to Royal Ascot next week, we begin to build our pot with meetings at both York and Sandown. Up North, we focus on the big sprints that York is so famous for. It’s the same down South as Sandown hosts the Scurry Stakes. Some nice value to sort out on today’s Four To Follow.

     

    York

    Sittin’ On The Dock

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    3:00 – Race To The Ebor Grand Cup (Listed) – Salt Bay @ 6/1 (General)

    Despite not winning a race since debut, Salt Bay is due a win. He came close at the start of the season as he only finished a neck down to Hamish in April. Hamish then finished an admirable second in the Coronation Cup. Salt Bay has deserved to step up in trip and may unlock the key to his success.

     

    A Town Up North

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    3:35 – Macmillan Sprint Handicap – Pocklington @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Located in 15 miles from York racecourse and trained up North in Malton, it may be written in the stars for Pocklington. The ground is acting on the easy side, which means the winner will be drawn from middle to high. Pocklington sits slap bang in the middle, and is on the pace of Media Shooter in the stall next door. A three-year-old destined for C&D trips in the future.

    When it comes to Yorkshire sprinters, Tim Easterby is king. Vince L’Amour is his top hope today, despite being a pound out of the handicap. It shouldn’t make too big a difference as he’s drawn in an area of plenty of pace. Expect him to go forward, and keep going as he should act on the soft side of good. 16/1 (William Hill).

    Twilight Romance should be one who’s prominent early on. Although he has shown indication he acts on firm ground, which may be a negative today with the ground on the softer side of good. But he’s drawn next to pace and acted well on the all-weather and should have matured to act on this type of ground into three. 18/1 (General).

     

    Sandown

    It’s Magic You Know

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    2:05 – talkSPORT Handicap – Dancing Magic @ 11/2 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Last year Dancing Magic was a group horse and has come down enough to perform at is level. He should act well with the ground and the booking of Oisin Murphy is worth looking at. He looks like he can’t manage big field handicaps, so this might be his cup of tea after tumbling down his marks enough.

    Terwada has come back to a mark of 90, which was his first winning mark as a three-year-old last season at Newmarket. He’s drawn next to some pace in the field and clearly loves going at the mile distance. Both Ed Walker and Tom Marquand are in good form too, so Terwada is worth a punt each-way. 11/1 (General).

     

    South Of The Equator

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    2:40 – Scurry Stakes (Listed) – Flora Of Bermuda @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Flora Of Bermuda could earn a nice title of Queen of the South tonight after coming down from a Group Two to Listed level. With Flora Of Bermuda she can either be on it or off it, and at Haydock a couple of weeks ago, she was off it. Now down to a Listed contest, it should suit her better than travelling to Royal Ascot for a sprint race well out of her depth.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    We resumed normal service with two winners and four places. Clarendon House and Economics made us end in profit and go into the final day of the Dante Festival on an even keel. Today it’s the turn of the older horses, with the Yorkshire Cup taking centre stage. And there’s one horse who looks like he shouldn’t belong there…

     

    A Blooming Bet

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    2:45 – Knights Solicitors Handicap – Botanical @ 100/30 (General)

    Botanical was one of my bets for Chester last week, but swerved the Roodee due to the ground and has come up to the Knavesmire. Roger Varian hasn’t had the best of times lately, but he’s waited to get Botanical out for a while and thinks his best opportunity is here. The bend will help him, given his wins have come at Hamilton, which has a bend. Ground is in his favour and his last run was finishing six lengths in front of the Lincoln winner, Mr Professor.

    Eilean Dubh has had a dry spell since mid-Summer last year. But he showed some promise last time out at Thirsk and should come on for the run. Stepped back up in trip and down two pounds to a mark of 89 should make the world of difference. He’s run and won over a mile before, but this step up in trip could show a new side to Eilean Dubh. Unexposed at 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    I can’t ignore a horse who’s well-in in the handicap. Loyal Touch for local trainer Charlie Johnston was only half-a-length behind the eventual winner Tony Montana when he just couldn’t keep on. But he was clear two-and-a-half lengths clear of third and has been ultra consistent in his last three runs. One narrow win and two narrow defeats, plus well-in in the handicap makes Loyal Touch one to watch. 9/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Colourful And Bright

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    3:15 – Michael Seely Memorial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) – True Cyan @ 4/1 (General)

    True Cyan might be a little looked over in the market after her fourth in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, but the form is backed up, somewhat. Kathmandu ran a blinder in the French 1000 Guineas last Sunday and finished a little under two lengths behind her. Her maiden win has been backed with plenty of form and the step up to the mile will suit her better than seven furlongs.

    And just one little shoutout to Carolina Reaper. She was sent on a fact-finding mission over ten furlongs where she ran into Friendly Soul. She was extremely disappointing in the Musidora, but 10 furlongs was never her distance. The mile will suit her so much better and at this level, she should run a big race at 25/1 (General).

     

    Group Getter

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    3:45 – Yorkshire Cup (Group Two) – Vauban @ 7/2 (General)

    How is Vauban second favourite? In a Group race? Over a mile and six furlongs? Trained by the British Champion jumps trainer?

    Tower Of London was good in the Middle East, take nothing away from those performances. But he’s up against a Royal Ascot winner, a Grade One winning hurdler and a horse who has now been rerouted to go on the flat. Vauban is a made Gold Cup, if not Group One winner. His price boggles the mind.

     

    Surrounded

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    4:15 – Darley EBF Novice Stakes – Under Siege @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    An intriguing novice stakes makes up our fourth race, and one horse comes in with his form rocket boosted. Under Siege was beaten by none other than Economics and still stands as second favourite. There are some more boosts behind Under Siege as well and Andrew Balding has had a good patch of form recently. Local rider Danny Tudhope gives him an extra boost.

    Dark Tornado has also some good form behind him after finishing second last September. He’s joined James Horton, who looks to have a useful horse on his hands and should have progressed well from two to three. He has plenty of distance form, over the mile, in his breeding and is an interesting price at 9/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    The Dante Festival and York remained as unpredictable as ever. The Placepot won over £28,000, which just shows how unpredictable yesterday was for not only backing winners but backing each-way shots too. Hopefully today is easier with four more tips from the Knavesmire.

    A Full House

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    2:15 – Lindum York Handicap – Clarendon House @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    With the ground now good, Clarendon House has a great opportunity. He’s been running on the All-weather this Winter and has found success. No less on his current mark of 105. Whilst he did come fourth on heavy ground on his first turf start of the season, he was only one-and-a-half lengths behind, so the ground can be blamed for that result. On a winning mark, with good ground in his favour and drawn next the pace which comes from stall 11, he presents one of the best chances in the race.

    Alligator Alley is no stranger to York. His last result on the Knavesmire was only beaten by a neck during the Ebor Festival. Since then, he’s mostly been running on the all-weather and comes into this race low in the weights. He’s dropped down to a mark of 89 so it should suit him better. He’s only won two turf races on firm ground, which is a worry. But a low mark should see him come over that obstacle. 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Good Earth looks to have a good chance as an outsider. With three pounds taken off by Connor Planas, he’s down to a previous winning mark. He loves give in the ground and he can go prominent as he’s drawn next to Arecibo. His last win came off a two-pound higher mark as well so he should be in the mix at the finish. 22/1 (General).

     

    Always Fun Up North

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    2:45 – Hambleton Handicap – Northern Express @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Northern Express loves York. He’s raced there for the Michael Dods team 13 times and won three. He’s finished in the top three eight times, so has a decent enough strike record over both a mile and seven furlongs. He can go any ground, but will appreciate the dig in the ground that going is giving. He’s on a mark of 100, which is only a pound above his highest winning mark of 99. Win number four incoming for Northern Express. Choo-Choo!

    Bopedro looks an interesting runner. He hasn’t won since August off a mark of 98, and he’s back down to that mark today. His best performances seem to come on marks in the 90s, so expect one today with a mark of 98. He can go on all sorts of ground and was placed at York last season as well. 25/1 (Boylesports) looks an absolute steal.

    Cruyff Turn won the race two years ago for Tim Easterby. He hasn’t been running well of late but goes down to a mark of 88. That’s two pounds below a previous mark of 90 and loves cut in the ground. He competed in this race last year off a seven pound higher mark and Easterby might have had this race in mind after disappointing in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Let-Er Rip

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    3:15 – Middleton Stakes (Group Two) – Free Wind @ 7/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Free Wind goes extremely well fresh. She’s won all three of her races off a break and doesn’t seem to come on for the runs after. However she did win four races as a three-year-old. She won this race last season by half a length and all her opponents had decent seasons after that. Don’t expect anything of Free Wind this season unless she’s coming off a break.

     

    Wisdom Number Four

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    3:45 – Dante Stakes (Group Two) – Ancient Wisdom @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Ancient Wisdom looks a lot more solid as a Derby contender than most. His form as a two-year-old stacks up impressively with three winners and three places from the Futurity Trophy. He’s by the legend that is Dubawi and out of a Group Three winning mare over a mile-and-a-half. He should come on for the step up in trip and handle it well.

    Don’t discount Economics in this race. Two winners have already come out of his maiden win at Newbury and were well down the field against Economics. Despite being by a miler, his mother was a Group Two winner over a mile and a half so will handle the step up in trip and looks a nice price at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!