Best Of Bets

Tag: york

  • Five To Follow: Super Saturday

     

    It’s one of the busiest, craziest and most hectic days of the racing calendar. It’s Super Saturday. Newmarket, York, Ascot, even Chester, have big races on offer.

    Including the July Cup, Bunbury Cup and the John Smith’s Cup, it’s a punters’ paradise. Let’s take you through the three big meetings, and find the Best Bets.

     

    Newmarket

    Truth Be Told

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    15:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – Great Truth @ 11/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, BetUK)

    This is one of the top two-year-old races of the season, and Godolphin have a great record in recent years. Native Trail and Master Of The Seas came from this race, and we all know what Native Trail did as a three-year-old. He has staying pedigree on both sides of his family, which won’t be a problem staying seven furlongs at two.

    On his debut, he was a little green at Leicester, but he won with plenty in hand, and you can’t discount a 5-and-a-half-length win. On past trends, and breeding, Great Truth has sold me.

     

    Two Blessed

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    16:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Bless Him @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Bless Him is now a nine-year-old, and has bucked the trends for this race as winners usually are between four and six. But he can still hack it at the top level, with an encouraging fifth in the Hunt Cup at Royal Ascot. And he is only two pounds higher than his winning mark in last year’s race.

    It’s worth noting that Jamie Spencer is not riding on Saturday, so Callum Shepherd gets the leg up.

    Star Of Orion has been quite a consistent horse this season, with two seconds at the start of the season. But Ralph Beckett seems to have laid him out for this race, electing not to go to Royal Ascot, and keeps his handicap mark at 92. Which is six pounds lower than last season’s mark.

    He’s versatile on all grounds, and is good value each-way player at 12/1 (General)

     

    Little Too Big

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    16:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Little Big Bear @ 4/1 (General)

    When the odds came out for the race, I was shocked that Little Big Bear was at 4/1.

    He got beat at Ascot, but that doesn’t mean he’s a bad horse. He’s a super sprinter! In fact he does have a good omen on his side, most recent winners have come from the Commonwealth Cup, but they didn’t win it.

    Only Muhuraar has done the double, which doesn’t put Shaquille in a good spot. Plus the allowance that Little Big Bear is getting, puts him as the best rated horse in the race. For me, I wouldn’t be surprised if punters take advantage of this, and he’s backed down.

     

    York

    Saturday Spirit

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    15:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Spirit Dancer @ 9/1 (General)

    This year’s edition of the John Smith’s Cup is probably one of the best.

    Each horse has strong claims, but I’ve gone for a regular at York. Spirit Dancer has been in the top four for the past five races, and his rating has only gone up five pounds in that period. He loves the firm ground, although the weather may set in at the weekend, as heavy showers are forecast. But he is versatile, as he can run well on good-to-soft ground.

    Northern trainers always do well at York, particularly Richard Fahey, and he will have had this race in mind since he came fourth in last year’s renewal.

    I also like the chances of Millebosc, who makes his reappearance on the track after 227 days. Horses who have been off the track have won the past three renewals of this race, and Haggas will have set out this horse for the race.

    He’s only had one run in the UK, a fifth on the Lingfield all-weather. His record shows that his only win came on debut, but he did come third in a Prix du Jockey Club, behind St. Mark’s Basilica, so his Group  form could come through. 12/1 (General) is a respectable price.

     

    Ascot

    The Mighty Mighty

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    14:20 – Summer Mile (Group Two) – Mighty Ulysees @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    Another horse who has been laid off the track is Mighty Ulysees. He came ever so close in last year’s St James’s Palace Stakes, but didn’t kick on in his final two starts. Now he’s back, and he is rated as one of the best in the field, which must be taken note. He’s drawn wide, which shouldn’t be a problem for Robert Havlin. He can land another big Saturday winner for the Gosdens, who are operating at a 29% strike rate.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Catch That, Paddy!

    Four To Follow: Catch That, Paddy!

    This week, the eyes of the sporting nation is on Edgbaston as The Ashes gets underway, read our preview here, which puts the racing towards the back of our minds. It’s a quiet week, but there’s action from York and Sandown to get stuck into, including a big sprint handicap. Here’s four to follow this weekend.

    SATURDAY

    Better Be Quick

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    York – 3:05 – Race To The Ebor Grand Cup (Listed) – QUICKTHORN @ 7/4 (BetVictor, William Hill, BetUK)

    The ground at York won’t be similar to the Ashes wicket this weekend. Hard and fast, dust will be flying. And one that could scorch the turf is Quickthorn, who’s name suggests is pretty fast. His Yorkshire Cup win, which was his last, was just under three and a half minutes, which was considered fast by the clock. He also looks to be the horse that is most suited to firm ground, despite never winning on the surface. Jason Hart picks up the ride in decent form, and last rode him when desperately losing the 2021 Ebor to Sonnyboyliston. It’s not a great renewal of the race, and the field shouldn’t be able to keep up.

    Caught Paddy, Bowled Ryan

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    York – 3:40 – Macmillan Sprint Heritage Handicap – Catch The Paddy @ 10/1 (10Bet)

    Once again, the firm ground will play a key factor in this sprint. High draws should favour, but don’t forget the low numbers too, they’ve dominated the last few years. But the pace looks to come from the high draws, and Catch The Paddy will be up for it. Firm ground is his friend, after winning last season over C&D in a 2-Y-O handicap. The form from the Gimcrack has worked a treat, and almost paid off at the Dante meeting. He’s been risen a lenient 2lbs, and might be hard to stop on the rattling ground at York. Kevin Ryan could discover his form he left behind at York last May.

    There are also two Tim Easterby runners, who just adores having winners in Yorkshire, and had a purple patch in this race between 2013 and 2017, winning three out of five. He runs Spirit Of Applause, who’s form shows that firm ground is perfect for him. Despite being at his highest mark, he has been dealt a good card in the weights. He’s drawn on the inside in stall six, which won’t be a problem, and can keep the Yorkshire winners coming for the Easterby team. The Great Habton trainer has had seven of his last nine winners in God’s Own County. 12/1 is a general price.

    Buccabay also looks an interesting each-way shout. Harry Davies is a great claiming jockey, having a Saturday winner last week at Haydock. Eve Johnson-Houghton is in good form too. A great partnership like that can produce a winner, and Buccabay looks to be on the improve. Fourth at Windsor shook a few more cobwebs off, and can pick up a place at 20/1 (General).

    Buick And Boughey To Scurry Away

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    Sandown – 2:50 – Scurry Stakes (Listed) – Perdika @ 3/1 (General)

    I’ve been following this horse for a while, and she came into her own when winning at Chantilly last time out. The ground described was ‘good’, but as is with French going readings they are always wrong. Good means good-to-firm in our reading. Which might explain why she’s always not got close enough to the winner. Firm ground is unexplored territory in this country, but it looks like her friend, along with the allowances she receives. A high draw is not bad on the sprint track at Sandown, particularly on firm ground.

    Watch out for Katey Kontent who loves the firm ground, after winning her first two races on it as a juvenile. She’s a quick horse, and could set a blistering time if she’s on song. Might be worth to have theses two in a reverse forecast too. But she’s overpriced at 18/1 (BetVictor).

    SUNDAY

    Running Redemption

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    Chantilly – PRIX DE DIANE (GROUP ONE) – Running Lion @ 11/4 (Unibet, Betfred)

    My Oaks pick Running Lion didn’t fancy running in the English Oaks, which caused Oisin Murphy to give us his best John McEnroe impression. But David Howden revealed before the Epsom Classic that this was the preferred target. She has plenty of talent, there’s no doubt, and can run on the ground if the French haven’t deceived us with the going report again. Blue Rose Cen is her main rival after her success in the French 1000 Guineas, and may look for bigger things for the Head team. Novakai would also be good each-way money, after Soul Sister pumped up the Musidora form. Novakai, for Karl Burke, is 25/1 (BetUK)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow Royally Good Guineas

    Four To Follow Royally Good Guineas

    It’s a busy weekend across both sides of the Irish Sea. Over at the Curragh, it’s the first of their classics with the 2000 Guineas taking place on Saturday, featuring some British raiders. Whilst back in Blighty, Haydock takes centre stage with two Group sprints, with York and Goodwood supporting. There are loads of races to choose from, here are four of the Best Bets on Saturday.

    2:25 Haydock – Betfred Silver Bowl (Heritage Handicap) – Defence Of Fort @ 7/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

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    I’m not a fan of three-year-old handicaps at this stage of the season, because many of them haven’t raced already, and are yet to discover their true handicap mark. That being said, Defence Of Fort has some things going for him. For one, the ground will be perfect for him, as his only win in three starts came on firm ground. The form from the Solario managed to work itself out, with the winner going to the Guineas – but not performing well – and the second winning next time out. Peter Chapple-Hyam doesn’t have the biggest of stables, but that doesn’t mean to say they’re not quality racehorses. Jason Watson managed to end a bad run by picking up a winner this week, so things are string to work out, and 7/1 isn’t a bad shout of a price.

    3:30 Haydock – Betfred Temple Stakes (Group Two) – Dramatised @ 5/1 (General)

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    The key form that Dramatised has is the last year’s Lowther. Mawj has gone on to win the Guineas, which boosts the form of the race massively. Matilde Picotte has also added to the form, after being placed twice this year too. Six furlongs that day looked a bit too step, and five should be her trip from now on. She gets both the three-year-old and mares’ allowance, with no penalty. William Buick is the eye-catching jockey booking as well. The Platinum Queen had a great campaign for the Richard Fahey team last year, but I’ve reservations about her being moved the Roger Varian stable.

    3:15 York – William Hill Bronte Cup (Group Three) – Moon Daisy @ 16/1 (William Hill)

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    Mimikyu seems the most likely winner of the race. She’s the best rated horse in the race. But she’s lightly raced and after a break of 50+ days, she never seems to do well on reappearance. Moon Daisy has had two runs this year, and beat Emily Dickinson last time out when finishing fourth in a group three in Ireland. Her last win came on firm ground, which should be the ground run on at York, and the opposition – bar Mimikyu – don’t seems to look group three level on paper. Also, Donnacha O’Brien won’t be sending over Moon Daisy just to get a run out of her. It’s a winnable race, even at inflated odds.

    3:40 Curragh – Tattersalls Irish 2000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Proud And Regal @ 5/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

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    Royal Scotsman ran brilliantly in the 2000 Guineas a few weeks ago. There’s no doubt about that. What did surprise me is that he’s coming here, instead of being layed off for the St James’s Palace at the Royal meeting. That being said, he is the one to beat. Hi Royal ran a big race, but is 115 his true mark? He’s the likely pace setter, but can he do what he did at Newmarket again? I’m not sure.

    For the Irish 2000 Guineas, the winner comes, primarily, from two different races. Either the English 2000 Guineas, or Derrinstown Derby Trial at Leopardstown. Proud And Regal, went the Derby trial route. It was clear that he ran well, but the ground was not for him. Today, it will be. He has form behind Al Riffa, who would have scored them here, had he not been scratched, and he likes the Curragh. He hasn’t finished outside the top three on all starts, and comes from a decent family who can get further.

    Galeron is one I’d consider at an each-way price, after coming here and winning the Goffs Million last September. 14/1 (BetVictor, William Hill) are good odds, considering he ran fourth in the English 2000 at 150/1.

    If you begged me for a tricast, it would be; Proud And Regal; Royal Scotsman; Galeron.

    The very best of luck, on a busy Saturday.