Best Of Bets

Tag: Paddington

  • Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Four To Follow: British Champions Day

    Today’s the day. It’s the finale of the flat. Ascot awaits. And with all the issue with the rain in the last few days, the markets have been changing from minute to minute. In an ever-fluctuating market, here are four horses I think can turn up on the biggest British racing stage.

     

    Stocking-Filler

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    2:25 – British Champions Filles’ And Mares’ Stakes (Group One) – Bluestocking @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    Bluestocking was in my notebook at the very start of the season and she hasn’t done too bad in her races. A decent second in the Irish Oaks was probably the highlight, when she finished half-a-length behind Savethelastdance on soft ground.

    She’s acted on good-to-soft ground as well as losing by a neck last time out at Chester. The victor, Al Qraeem, came out and won at Ascot next time out so the form stacks up. Ralph Beckett won’t mind the move onto the inner track and has a live chance.

    An each-way angle into this would be Henry de Bromhead’s Term Of Endearment. The move onto the inner track may mean that she won’t get her desired proper soft ground, but she has acted on yielding ground, finishing a narrow second to Lafayette in the Martin Molony at Limerick. She’s still backable at 14/1 (General)

     

    A Rock & A Nash-Place

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    3:05 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 4/1 (Boylesports)

    This is probably the race of the day. We’ve waited all year for a match-up for Paddington and Tahyira, but both are not my pick. Instead, I think Nashwa represents the true value of the race. The soft ground over a mile is a perfect combination for John & Thady Gosden’s filly, and with plenty of pace in the race it should suit.

    Paddington won’t be too far away and will certainly be up at the finish, but more questions surround the Matron Stakes winner.

    Big Rock is quite clearly a big talking point and should turn up today. Whilst everyone is talking about the form behind Ace Impact, I’m more bothered about his performance in the Prix de Guice in May on French ‘heavy’ ground.

    It would be similar to today on the straight track and puts him in a position to challenge. He’s up there on ratings and the French aren’t too bad at turning up on Champions Day either. Big danger at 7/1 (William Hill).

     

    King’s Got A Point

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    3:45 – Champion Stakes (Group One) – King Of Steel @ 4/1 (General)

    Mostahdaf is the current favourite due to the movement of the course, but I still think King Of Steel is the one to beat. He’s has been so good, but always been beaten by a better horse on their day.

    I think Mostahdaf, whilst the highest rated, won’t perform on the ground; Horizon Dore has never looked like a favourite in my eyes; and Bay Bridge has come back too soon from the Arc.

    King Of Steel has been prepped and aimed for this race, and Frankie will want the farewell he wants.

    But an overpriced horse is Point Lonsdale. He’s Aidan O’Brien’s only runner in the race, but he still commands respect. His wins on soft and heavy earlier on in the season can’t be overlooked and was a pacesetter for his previous two runs.

    The course movement is not ideal, but there’s still enough juice in the ground for him to be up at the finish after setting the fractions. 28/1 (BetUK) for an overpriced outsider.

     

    A Testing Issue

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    4:25 – Balmoral Handicap (Heritage) – Migration @ 9/1 (BetUK)

    Heavy is the way to go on the straight track tomorrow, and with a field of 20 only some few are likely to have form on the most extreme ground. Migration, despite top weight, is one of those.

    He won the Lincoln on heavy ground at the start of the year but couldn’t follow up in Group company. Since then, he has been rested and has been waiting for the heavens to open and today, regardless of top weight, he’s got it.

    As I have mentioned several times when tipping handicaps on the straight course at Ascot, David O’Meara loves them. Having put one of his horses up for one of these races has never yielded anything. The last time had a winner over the straight course in a big Ascot handicap was last year’s Balmoral.

    Bopedro is their main hope this year, two pounds well in, and with a good draw. Near to the pace, he can act on ground he doesn’t prefer, but has acted on before, and deliver at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) for O’Meara after a poor season.

    The Gatekeeper is interesting at 50/1 (General) for the Johnston team. He acts really well on soft ground and is only two pounds higher than his latest win at Goodwood (won in the Stewards’ room). With testing conditions, and pace on his side, he can cause another barmy Balmoral upset.

     

    The very best of luck!

  • York Ebor Festival Day Two: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day Two: Selections and Naps

    We are off to a winning start, sort off, at York. Continuous put us in pole position ahead of Paddington. But Frankie had other ideas, and delivered a ride to finally knock Paddington off his perch. Today we focus on the ladies as the Yorkshire Oaks takes centre stage. Aidan O’Brien holds a strong card, and we’ll be delving into more detail below.

    Ready to Rally

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    NAP: Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Relief Rally @ 2/1 (General)

    Relief Rally raised a few eyebrows when she went to the Weatherbys Super Sprint, instead of going down a group race route. But William Haggas has come to the Ebor and has directed Relief Rally to go down the top level route. She makes the step up to six, but she won’t mind it given her breeding. And, even by her win at Newbury when she just waltzed away from the opposition. Haggas didn’t have a winner at his boyhood track, on his birthday, yesterday but will have his best chance with this daughter of Kodiac.

    Heating Up at York

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    E/W Bet: Yorkshire Oaks (Group One) – Warm Heart @ 6/1 (General)

    Savethelastdance may hog the headlines, but Warm Heart has a real chance going into this. She might not be the number one for Aidan O’Brien but she’s won on firm ground, unlike her stablemate. Her run in the Irish Oaks didn’t suit, namely the ground but it was quite slow. Expect plenty of pace up front and for Warm Heart to pick her rivals off one by one, and may even get the better of her stablemate too.

    O’Meara Of Course

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    Handicap Best: Clipper Logistics H’cap (Heritage) – Orbaan @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    David O’Meara loves a good handicap, whether it’s at Ascot or York. And Orbaan is one of those horses that keeps cropping up in these types of races. He’s been campaigned thoroughly and has found himself dropping to a 5lb lower mark than in last year’s race, where he finished a good fourth. That drop in the handicap, plus ideal ground conditions and drawn next to Spirit Catcher who will want to be prominent, points him as the ideal candidate.

    As I explained in yesterday’s column, Northern trainers love the Ebor meeting. And Ed Bethell looks to have campaigned Point Lynas with this race in mind. His best result this season came over C&D, losing by a head to Croupier. He’s been given a break since disappointing at Royal Ascot which may play into his hands. A career high mark of 96 doesn’t put me off backing him at 12/1 (BetVictor), as he’s finished second twice at York.

    La Trinidad was in my tracker right at the start of the season and has had a very light campaign so far. Only three runs, including a win on firm ground at Doncaster, gives him a mark of 94. But with Jonny Peate claiming three pounds, he’s only on a 2lb higher mark than his previous win of 89. Which came over C&D. He has to overcome an outside draw in stall 20, but drawn next to pace may prove to be a stroke of luck. A nice big price at 28/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Relief Rally (NAP) @ 2/1 (General)

    14:25 – Premier Yearling Stakes – Dapperling @ 12/1 (William Hill)

    15:00 – Clipper Logistics Handicap (Heritage) – Orbaan (H’cap Best) @ 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports), Point Lynas @ 12/1 (BetVictor), La Trinidad @ 28/1 (General)

    15:35 – Yorkshire Oaks (Group One) – Savethalastdance @ 9/2 (General), Warm Heart (E/W) @ 6/1 (General)

    16:10 – Galtres Stakes (Listed) – Sea Theme @ 4/1 (General)

    16:45 – EBF Stallions Nursery – Aragon Castle @ 5/1 (General), Expert Choice @ 6/1 (General)

    17:20 – Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage) – Unequal Love @ 100/30 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival Day One: Selections and Naps

    York Ebor Festival Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s the best Festival of the Summer as the stars head up North to York for the Ebor Festival. Day One has plenty in store, with the highlight the Juddmonte International. A race won by a pantheon of greats down the years, and this year may see another star win the biggest prize on the Knavesmire. There’s plenty of handicaps to get stuck into as well, so let’s take a look at Day One’s selections.

    Everyone’s Favourite

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    NAP: Juddmonte International Stakes (Group One) – Paddington@ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Paddington is all the rage this year, and I’m still convinced he hasn’t faced a stern test yet. But that’s about to change as he faces some tough rivals who hold quality cards. Mostahdaf has had another break after stepping down in trip to win the Prince of Wales’s Stakes on Good-to-Firm ground; Nashwa is back on preferred ground after disappointing in the Nassau; and The Foxes is back at the scene of his Dante win, and off the back of a loss over in America.

    It may look easy, but it’s anything but for Paddington. There may be a worry for the ground as he has never run on it, but the way Paddington is produced in a race suits firm ground runners at York, as they are very hard to catch when out in front (just ask Quickthorn).

    In behind, The Foxes makes most appeal. His Dante win was likeable, he was very tough to fend off a determined White Birch, and it was clear that Epsom didn’t suit him. He just couldn’t make up the ground in the Belmont Derby, but he’s back on home turf and can certainly run a big race. I’d have the two on a reverse forecast.

    Continue To Push

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    Next Best Bet: Great Voltiguer Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous @ 9/4 (General)

    It’s hard to have an each-way bet in the other two group races at York because of the small field sizes. But for the lack in size makes up in the quality. I’m surprised Gregory comes to this race after his win over further in the Queen’s Vase, which he carries a penalty for.

    I much rather prefer Continuous, who I thought would be Derby winner, but has steadily improved throughout the season. Whilst King Of Steel showed his class at Ascot, Continuous wasn’t disgraced in second and has had a good break since. He came close in the Dante, so the track will suit.

    Fast Through The Forest

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    Handicap Best: Sky Bet and Symphony Group (Heritage H’cap) – Jm Jungle @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    If there is one rule when betting on handicaps at York it’s this. Always back Northern trainers. Northern trainers target these handicaps from April. And it works. Only Tony Carroll and Dean Ivory have broken through the Northern barricade in the last ten runnings of the race.

    And Jm Jungle is a horse who has been consistent throughout the season. On what could be a very good week for John Quinn and Jason Hart, Jm Jungle’s form figures this season has read 3324211. He faces another 5lb rise after his last win, which he can handle fine as he did with his last win. Another plus is he’s near the far side rail, but a small negative is he’s not near pace. But Jm Jungle can continue his progression and scalp his biggest win here.

    Another tip at York is back Tim Easterby in sprints. And he has a class outfit in Manila Scouse, who is becoming a typical York sprinter. Despite never winning on firm ground, his breeding suggests he is ground versatile. After his success in the racing league she comes here in fine fettle and can continue an upward progression in a big York sprint handicap at 10/1 (General).

    Small stakes for Shalaa Asker who will relish the firm ground, and could run a big race at 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    Selections:

    13:50 – Sky Bet and Symphony Group H’cap (Heritage) – Jm Jungle (H’cap Best) @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports), Manila Scouse 10/1 (General), Shalaa Asker @ 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    14:25 – Acomb Stakes (Group Three) – Cogitate @ 10/3 (General)

    15:00 – Great Voltiguer Stakes (Group Two) – Continuous (Next Best) @ 9/4 (General)

    15:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (Group One) – Paddington (NAP) @ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    16:10 – Stayers’ Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Themaxwecan @ 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports), Charging Thunder @ 20/1 (Boylesports)

    16:45 – IRE Fillies’ H’cap (Heritage H’cap) – Radio Goo Goo @ 10/1 (BetUK), Lady Hamana @ 14/1 (General)

    17:20 – Nursery H’cap – Zabriskie Point @ 15/2 (William Hill), Mayo Neighs @ 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Best of Luck!

  • Ebor Festival 2023 | Majestic Paddington sets sights on Juddmonte

    Ebor Festival 2023 | Majestic Paddington sets sights on Juddmonte

    As flat season approaches September, just two major festivals remain on the calendar, beginning with the Ebor Festival on Wednesday.

    The Knavesmire hosts three elite Group 1 contests this week and BestofBets are putting each one under the spotlight.

    Beginning with the Juddmonte International Stakes, can the majestic Paddington extend his unbeaten streak to eight?

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    Big draw

    Arguably the biggest race of the Ebor meeting before being skittled down to just four runners, the British Champions Series battle takes place over 1m2½f.

    This year’s Juddmonte is the smallest field since 2009, after Desert Crown was forced to drop out following yet another injury issue

    Paddington remains the marquee marvel.

    Now one of the most popular horses around, 2023, for the 3yo of Aidan O’Brien, has been nothing short of a sensation.

    Still some six months off turning four, Paddington already has four Group 1 victories to his name.

    Indeed, his last four wins have all been in elite company.

    Capped by Royal Ascot glory in the St. James’s Palace Stakes, Coolmore victory at the Curragh back in May almost seems a footnote.

    Ryan Moore would be entitled to feel more than a little smug, but might the extra half mile throw a spanner in the works?

     

    Crowley on the charge?

    Not since his debut run at Ascot some 11 months ago has Paddington been beaten. Many have come; many have trailed in the dust.

    So the question remains: Just when will Paddington’s monopolistic run come to end?

    The Juddmonte sees three more contenders take a shot at the king; Mostahdaf seems most likely to challenge.

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    A 10/1 surprise winner of the Prince of Wales’s Stakes in his last outing, Shadwell will be eyeing another huge scalp.

    The son of Frankel has 2/3 wins this term, and the mount of Jim Crowley was fourth in the Dubai Classic back in March.

    However, taking down the favourite at Royal Ascot, Luxembourg, was one thing, toppling Paddington is quite another.

     

    Gosden grit

    With just two other names in the frame, what of Hollie Doyle’s chances on Nashwa?

    Only one win has come the way of John and Thady Gosden’s 4yo, but if the weather plays ball and the ground remains good, Nashwa could put up.

    Storming back to the winner’s circle in the Falmouth Stakes at the July Festival, York could provide favourable turf.

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    The sole remaining contender of the Juddmonte is The Foxes, who whilst on outsider, won the Dante earlier this term.

    He also was runner-up in both the Craven and a previous outing at Belmont Park last time out.

    Oisin Murphy will have his work cut out, but don’t draw a line through this plucky Foxes’ Ebor chances.

     

    The Juddmonte International Stakes takes place on Wednesday 23 August, 15:35

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

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    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

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    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

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    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

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    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Two

    Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).

    But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    Goodwood

    FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS

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    2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)

    Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.

    Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.

    This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.

    It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.

    According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.

    Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).

     

    HACKING THROUGH THE TURF

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.

    Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.

    Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here

    PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE

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    3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)

    Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?

    It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.

    Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.

    Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.

     

    Galway

    FUN AND GAMES

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    6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.

    He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.

    But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.

    One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.

    A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!

    12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.

    The very best of luck!

  • Qatar Goodwood Festival 2023: The favourites

     

    Royal Ascot, done. July Festival, in the books. It’s time for Glorious Goodwood!

    As flat season enters August, hot on the heels of an all-time classic King George VI renewal at Ascot, this week, West Sussex gets its turn in the spotlight.

    With five days of action and 37 races on the card, three Group 1 contests are on the slate.

    But just where will the money be this week?

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    Brit Courage – 5/2 Betfred

    In the opening day’s main event, the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup takes the spotlight and Courage Mon Ami is the bookies’ favourite.

    But only just.

    Now unbeaten in four, the 4yo gelding sprung a relative upset to win the Ascot Gold Cup at 15/2, edging Coltrane by just under a length.

    The latter was fourth in this contest last year – behind the still absent Kyprios – and the duo lock horns once more over the shorter trip.

    Perhaps the only slight caveat this week for the mount of Frankie Dettori lies in this summer’s unpredictable weather.

    Ascot’s turf this past weekend had a little more juice in it, but was still close to good to soft and will likely be for the off on Tuesday.

    Courage Mon Ami’s two wins since gelding have both been on firmer ground – including at Goodwood in May.

    In conclusion, Coltrane and potentially Eldar Eldarov could push, but this contender should have enough courage, my friend.

     

    Perfect Paddington – 8/15 William Hill

    Never mind marmalade sandwiches, it’s been caviar on a plate from the magical Paddington.

    The 3yo goes for an astonishing seventh win in-a-row in Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes.

    Unbeaten since an Ascot debut last September, Aidan O’Brien’s colt has become the toast of Ballymore.

    Such is the calibre of the son of Siyouni, Paddington is no one-trick pony; he’s won in all conditions.

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    His last outing on the softer turf saw victory in the Coolmore at the Curragh at the start of May, and though amongst stronger company looks the overwhelming favourite.

    Indeed, perhaps only Inspiral – Frankie’s other main hope this week – could hold a candle.

    The only question now is, just when might his winning streak end?

    At 2/5, that is unlikely to be this week; Paddington is poised to make it super seven.

     

    GNashing of teeth – 2/1 BoyleSports

    Moving on, Nashwa then looks to become the first horse since Midday to defend the Nassau Stakes.

    Storming back to victory in last month’s Falmouth Stakes, Hollie Doyle rode the filly’s first win since that last trip to Goodwood 12 months back.

    Fending off Richard Hannon’s whopping 40/1 shot Aristia, rain might be a slight concern for John and Thady Gosden.

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    However, Nashwa still has a decent record in said conditions, with a win in France last summer.

    The youngster’s main challenge looks to come from the unbeaten-in-five Blue Rose Cen.

    It is worth considering though, having not run since late June, all five wins for the Irish girl have been on French soil.

    And, with the bit between her teeth, we’re anticipating another gutsy outing from Nashwa.

     

    Prancing Princess – 11/8 William Hill

    As we complete our look at the big names, is this finally the week Highfield Princess re-asserts her authority?

    Lining up in the King George Qatar Stakes, the Yorkshire-based French wonder is yet to win this season, but the effort is there.

    Putting on a much-improved showing in this year’s Jubilee Stakes, the Princess was nonetheless forced to watch Khaadem romp to a stunning victory.

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    Before that, runners-up in the Kings Stand and the Clipper Stakes at York have come this season but so far, the pieces have not quite fallen.

    That could be about to change at Goodwood.

    Having been third in the 2021 Whispering Oak, her last win came on the soft at the Curragh last September.

    Over the same 5f trip, Highfield Princess is currently a full 7pts up in the markets over her rivals.

    Following on from a decent weekend at Ascot for Jason Hart, this will surely be the return to winning ways for this glorious mare.

  • Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Two Selections and Naps

    Day One at Royal Ascot wasn’t a great day for the column. The NAP landed, when Paddington hacked up in the feature, but Bring On The Night got trapped and Cuban Thunder was never involved. But Royal Ascot is very much a marathon and Day Two should start to turn the tide.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    MOORE MOORE MOORE

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    NAP: Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)

    A treble for Ryan Moore yesterday took his total winners at the Royal meeting to 76 yesterday, after an astonishing treble on River Tiber, Paddington and Vauban. A £1 treble would have paid out £15.20, which shows the pull of the almost-40-year-old jockey. Today he rides Luxembourg, who’s been tipped in my Four To Follow column, when he won the Tattersalls Gold Cup. He led all the way, fending off Bay Bridge in the latter stages and there’s nothing to say he can do it again from stall one on the round course.

    Keep an eye out for Mostahdaf, who is unbeaten off a 50+ day break, and is making his UK reappearance, and seems to have a good draw on the wide outside in draw six. Both Jim Crowley and the Gosdens’ seem to have gone under in terms of winners, but this horse has to have been strategically aimed at this race, and is Group One level with a rating of 121, 2lbs lower than Luxembourg. Completely the wrong price at 20/1 (General).

    A ROYAL ROGUE

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    E/W BET: Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Rogue Millennium @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    I like Prosperous Voyage, and there is much debate about what the ground will be by 3:40 in the afternoon. Prosperous Voyage loves the firm ground, but any cut and she’s vulnerable. Given Ascot had a storm yesterday, it puts me off her. The next best rated is Rogue Millennium. She’s had decent form figures since the turn of the new season, 232, narrowly beaten at York last time out on the firm ground. She won’t mind the ground, and Group Two is at her true level and she’ll give Jumbly a true test on the straight track.

    AN INTELLOGENT BET

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    Handicap Best: Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Intellogent @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Perotto is the favourite, and every punter has said in every preview ‘Perotto is my bet of the week.’ Well, well done tipsters he’s now 7/1. So, it tempts me to look elsewhere. I looked underneath Perotto in the betting and Intellogent stood out. Ran a stormer last year off 105, and lost by half a length. He’s rated 104 this  and that mark that makes him appealing; he’s versatile on all grounds; and, he’s drawn one off the stand side rail in 31. James Doyle has a nice 26% strike rate to back it up.

    Ghaly also caught the eye. Not just in the formbook, but when I saw him in person at York last year. He kept on in a four-runner handicap at York, beating Blue For You by a neck, which was his second run off a massive break. He then beat King Of Conquest, and the race threw up great formlines. He’s on the other side f the track in stall eight, but Saeed bin Suroor had hit a sweet spot, and Oisin Murphy is always eye-catching. Next best at 10/1 (William Hill)

    Chasing Aphrodite also gave off good each-way vibes. Won the trial for this race at the Trials meeting, and the handicapper has raised him four pounds for a length-and-a-half win. Versatile ground-wise, with wins on Good and Good-to-firm ground and Hayley Turner always turns up at Royal Ascot. Prepare for an excitable Ed Chamberlain if Hayley’s victorious. Decent claims at 16/1 (William Hill)

    One more for the Hunt Cup, and Dunum represents good Irish form. Narrowly beaten when favourite in the Emerald Mile, but has been consistent throughtou his career. 1111212 read his form figures and a 4lbs rise will mean nothing to him, having defied 6lb and 9lbs rises before. Bookies have the main Irish raider at 14/1 (10Bet, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Mary Stakes (Group Two) – Got To Love A Grey @ 10/1 (General), Bundchen e/w @ 16/1 (General)
    15:05 – Kensington Palace Fillies’ H’cap – Adelaise @ 7/1 (General)
    15:40 – Duke of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Jumbly @ 9/4 (General), ROGUE MILLENNIUM E/W @ 12/1 (Betfred)
    16:20 – Prince of Wales’s Stakes (GROUP ONE) – LUXEMBOURG (NAP) @ 9/4 (10Bet, Boylesports, BetUK)
    17:00 – Royal Hunt Cup (Heritage H’cap) – INTELLOGENT @ 8/1 (Unibet, 10Bet, Betfred, William Hill), Ghaly (10/1) Chasing Aphrodite (16/1) & Dunum (14/1) all e/w
    17:35 – Queen’s Vase (Group Two) – Peking Opera @ 6/1 (General)
    18:10 – Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed) – Bombay Bazaar @ 10/1 (General)
  • Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s that time of year. The sun is shining, the suits are hired, it must be Royal Ascot. Top hats galore and top-class action from all around the world. Australia and America join in today, along with British and Irish. Day One is set to be a cracker. Here are my selections and naps for the one of the best meetings of the Summer.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    PADDINGTON TO BEAR THE BRUNT

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    NAP: St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    There are many races this week which punters are saying are ‘the races of the week’. This is one of them, with the English and Irish Guineas winners facing off. Chaldean is 3lbs higher than his Irish counter-part, 119 to 116. But there is one thing that lets the Frankel colt down. The draw. Since the turn of the millennium, four winners have come from stall one. Many horses are boxed in on the rail and haven’t room to move. Paddington is drawn wide in eight, and if he can get a better start he had in the Irish Guineas, he’ll be hard to get past. Read more on his chances on Best Of Bets.

    Keep an eye out for Indestructible, the Craven winner. He’s already tipped up on Best of Bets, and he isn’t without hope. He underperformed in the English Guineas but has been kept fresh for this race. Firm ground will suit him, given he won by five-and-a-half lengths as a two-year-old on the surface, and a good outside draw in stall nine. 50/1 (General) seems overpriced.

    And don’t discount Isaac Shelby, who’s a decent each-way price of 9/1 (General). He won the Greenham Stakes, where Chaldean unseated. He almost made up for it when narrowly losing in the French Guineas. The ground will be a little firmer, and could go well, with a half-decent draw in stall three.

    PERFECT STORM IN THE COVENTRY

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    E/W BET: Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Cuban Thunder @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)

    I feel Cuban Thunder is overlooked. He’s experienced enough with two races under his belt, including a win last time out, which came in the Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes. Lusail, Repartee and Queen Olly are recent winners of the race who haven’t had bad careers since then. Dominic Ffrench Davis has a good record when prepping Amo Racing’s two-year-olds. Kevin Stott has chosen to ride Bucanero Fuerte, but Rossa Ryan isn’t a bad substitute. Stand-side draw might be where the winners come on the straight course this week, worth to keep an eye on.

    MOORE AND MULLINS TO BRING IT

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    Handicap Best: Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Bring On The Night @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Willie Mullins is operating at a 57% strike rate. Over the jumps, in the off season. He’s a genius. He has a good record at the Royal meeting as well with four winners in this race. Those four winners came in a period of six years between 2012 – 2018. Ryan Moore was on three of them. Moore is currently operating at a 33% strike rate and has also won leading rider at Royal Ascot nine times. Bring On The Night has been raised 4lbs since last year’s second, and hasn’t been seen since. Bring on the Ascot Stakes I say!

    Keep an eye out for Themaxwecan who loves the firmer ground. He raced in last year’s race, finishing midfield off a mark of 97. After that race he went and won a race at Ascot over two miles on firm ground with Jamie Spencer on board. This time he’s 92, 5lbs lower than last year’s mark. He hasn’t got a great record over two miles, but with a good mark and good conditions he could certainly get a place at 40/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Modern Games @ 9/4 (Unibet, William Hill), Chindit e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    15:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Givemethebeatboys @ 4/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK), CUBAN THUNDER E/W @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)
    15:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Highfield Princess @ 5/2 (Unibet), Twilight Gleaming e/w @ 25/1 (Boylesports)

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    16:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON (NAP) @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor), Indestructible e/w @ 50/1 (General)
    17:00 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) BRING ON THE NIGHT @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill), Themaxwecan e/w @ 40/1 (General)
    17:35 – Wolfreton Stakes (Listed) – Francesco Clemente @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor)
    18:10 – Copper Horse Handicap – Absurde @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • The Royal Ascot Treble: Paddington

    The Royal Ascot Treble: Paddington

     

    As a meaty Day 1 of Royal Ascot rolls on, the King’s Stand is followed swiftly by what looks to be a classic head-to-head in the St. James’s Palace Stakes.

    Spurred by the departing Frankie Dettori, Chaldean will be the popular choice of many but Paddington may just spoil the party.

    Fresh from Irish 2000 Guineas glory, can the 3yo give Aidan O’Brien a ninth race victory?

     

    Going full circle?

    Paddington has had a rousing eight months.

    Making his debut last September, the son of Siyouni picked up his first win at the Curragh a month later over 7f to close out last term.

    Staying at the same trip to begin this season, Paddington had not lost a beat over the winter, going back-to-back at Naas.

    With eyes on the bigger races, victory in the Coolmore back at the beginning of May then saw his stock rise.

    His value then sky-rocketed with said two-length Irish Guineas win.

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    Making a return to Ascot nine months on, all looks in place.

    However, his debut outing on the Berkshire racecourse could still be a lingering factor.

    Indeed, then fifth as the mount of Ryan Moore, it has been a flawless tale since, but Paddington does not yet have a win on home British soil – a statistic both horse, jockey and their trainer will be keen to remedy.

    So is Paddington’s trip about to come full circle?

    AP O’Brien knows hows to win this race and just like with the Guineas, dominates at the trip.

    Circus Maximus – also ridden by Ryan Moore – brought the spoils in 2019; Paddington looks poised to deliver.

     

    Cicero may reign on parade

    Aside from the sizeable threat of 2000 Guineas winner Chaldean, Cicero’s Gift stands as perhaps the other main contender.

    With an unbeaten record in three, Charlie Hills’ promising youngster has improved from debut at Newbury, to last month’s latest victory at Goodwood.

    Dominant over the 1m distance, can Kieran Shoemark make the step-up in calibre in their first Grade 1 race?

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    The other name that could thwart Paddington is Paul and Oliver Cole’s Royal Scotsman.

    A late money fancy in both 2000 Guineas races, the extra 3f in both proved a step too far for the green colt but will they prove learning curves?

    Set to go off a fairly big price once more and though yet to truly impress at Ascot, Royal Scotsman was, however, third in last year’s Coventry.

    If the market price tumbles into Tuesday, keep an eye on this spritely young thing.