Best Of Bets

Tag: ITV Racing

  • Four To Follow – Chase The Value

    Four To Follow – Chase The Value

    It’s the second week of the very best racing before Christmas, as we have out first domestic Group One, the Betfair Chase. There’s also competitive action at Ascot too plus a big handicap to decipher at Haydock as well. Let’s get stuck in.

     

    Haydock

    Never Too Far Away

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    2:30 – Betfair Stayers’ Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Doyen Quest @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Fresh from his Cheltenham success a week ago, the Skelton team have decided to put Doyen Quest in a slightly upgraded position. He may carry a five-pound penalty for his win, but is also five pounds well-in on the handicap which cancels that out. He’s been ultra-consistent since February and hasn’t seen third place or lower in six runs. He can once again improve and may be put away for a tilt at the Pertemps in March.

    Making his reappearance is Kerryhill for Ruth Jefferson. Largely left out of the picture after winning the Grade Two River Don Novices’ Hurdle at Doncaster in February, winning by seven-and-a half lengths. He does have form in the book from that race, with The Newest One winning on seasonal reappearance in October. A definite talent over hurdles, he won’t mind the ground or the weight he’s been dealt in this contest. Well worth keeping an eye on at 11/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

    One horse I’m willing to give another try to is Push The Button for the in-form Twiston-Davies team. He wasn’t too disgraced in October at Cheltenham. And if you look at his breeding, his half-brother won twice over two-and-a-half and stepped up well to three miles. The same can be said for this second-season hurdler, and the step up in trip may be what he needs. 14/1 (William Hill).

     

    Repeat Winners

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    3:05 – Betfair Chase (Grade One) – Royale Pagaille @ 4/1 (General)

    This has the hallmarks of one of the best renewals of the Betfair Chase in years. But the trend with this race is repeat winners always have an advantage. And Royal Pagaille fits the bill. With rain expected on Saturday the ground will turn softer which will be to Royal Pagaille’s benefit. Second-season chasers are often found out at this level, and the Irish don’t have a good record in the race. The odds stack in his favour.

     

    Ascot

    Ready To Purr

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    2:05 – Berkshire National H’cap Chase – Kitty’s Light @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    Not many horses can handle good ground over marathon trips, but this early season target comes into the favour of one. Kitty’s Light can perform to the back end of the jumps season. But since the ground is good, it plays into his advantage. He can try to turn back the years to 2023 when he pulled off a remarkable hattrick of Eider Chase, Scottish National and bet365 Gold Cup.

     

    Golden Charm

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    2:45 – Howden Ascot Hurdle (Grade Two) – Golden Ace @ 2/1 (General)

    With all the allowances given to Golden Ace, this may well be a penalty kick. She won over the median distance last time out at the April meeting at Cheltenham, coming off the back of an unexpected Festival win beating Brighterdaysahead. With the boys giving her weight, and a couple on penalties themselves, this should be easy enough for the mare.

  • Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Three Tips

    Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Three Tips

    It’s the first big festival of the jumps season, as we go back to Cheltenham for the November meeting. Day Three looks to be competitive once more with the Greatwood Hurdle taking centre stage. Plus we have a big staying handicap chase that could give some clues for the marathon races this year. One last time, let’s dive into Day Three

     

    Prim And Proper

    1:45 – mallardjewllers.com Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase – Primoz @ 7/2 (General)

    Primoz was a good winner in a handicap hurdle up at Ayr at the end of last season but improved massively when starting over the fences for the first time at Wetherby. He beat experienced opposition Pay The Piper by two lengths and travelled up with the pace. The step up in trip looks natural and if there’s a strong pace on, he’ll be dangerous.

     

    …He’s Running At Cheltenham?

    2:55 – Holland Cooper Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Does He Know @ 5/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    An experienced chaser at the marathon trip, Does He Know produced as good a run as he could muster when returning from a wind op. Despite leading he faded but finished a good fourth from two good horses. He won this race back in 2022 off a mark of 152 and is two pounds lower than that today, which makes him look an attractive proposition.

    Surrey Quest also warrants close consideration, with a good reappearance record. The numbers read 173112, losing by a neck after a break in the Scottish Grand National. He shouldn’t mind the good ground, and the best time is to catch him now, fresh. Only up four pounds from his neck defeat last time, he can sneak into the places at 17/2 (William Hill).

     

    What Have You Done To Make You Feel Proud?

    3:30 – Unibet Greatwood Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Fiercely Proud @ 16/1 (William Hill)

    Despite a less-than-ideal prep, when falling at Ascot and running loose at the October meeting, I still have high hopes for Fiercely Proud. He’s been campaigned with this particular early season aim and matches a lot of the trends that previous horses have had. He’s a second season hurdler who has won at Cheltenham previously and races off a good weight. The big price takes into consideration his prep runs, but I still have faith that he’ll turn up good.

    Anyharminasking returned to Cheltenham with a good performance behind Wyenot at the October meeting to finish third. He was down the field in last year’s running of the race but is now two pounds lower than that mark today. He has a liking for good ground and can improve for his earlier run, despite being a seven-year-old. 25/1 (General).

    Cracking Rhapsody looks a shrewd long-shot bet, taking into consideration his 1L third in the Scottish Champion Hurdle back in April. He blew the cobwebs away at Hexham last time out to finish a not too distant fourth at Hexham in a handicap hurdle. He’s most likely to be seen up North, but connections think he’s good enough to compete on the biggest stage. 25/1 (William Hill).

     

    Favouring Fortune

    4:00 – Junior Jumpers Open NH Flat Race (Listed) – Fortune De Mer @ 4/1 (General)

    Despite losing to a resurging Block Rockin Beats, I was still taken with Fortune De Mer on his first performance under rules. He took the odd decision of being held up in the rear, on day that favoured front runners, but weaved his way through the melee. Eventually he went six lengths clear of the rest of his rivals up the hill. He does come up against a tough Irish challenger, but this is a narrow field and can showcase his talent once more.

  • Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Two Tips

    Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day Two Tips

    It’s the first big festival of the jumps season, as we go back to Cheltenham for the November meeting. Day Two features the Paddy Power Gold Cup.

     

    London Waters

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    12:35 – JCB Triumph Trial Juvenile Hurdle (Grade Two) – East India Dock @ 9/4 (General)

    Normally I wouldn’t tip juveniles, but East India Dock represents something. For one, he represents the connections from last year’s Cheltenham November win. For two, he won on good ground by a considerable distance. In the three weeks that have past he may have improved, so don’t take so lightly on him. Plus, his trainer is operating at a 23% strike rate. Consistent form for an in-form stable.

    Also, take a chance om Static, each-way. His form reads well, especially finishing within a neck of Liam Swagger at Wetherby. He clearly has a liking for these conditions and can act on them for an in-form trainer in Olly Murphy. 6/1 (General).

     

    A Technical Problem

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    1:10 – Steel Plate & Sections Ltd Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase – Transmission @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Transmission makes a lot of sense. One is the fact that he’s arguably been treated by the handicapper to become second weight. The second is that Hyland won in some style at yesterday’s fixture. With form like that, and a top jockey on board (conditional or not), he’s a force to be reckoned with.

    Each-way placings belong to Jimmy The Digger, who finished second last time out at the October meeting. He showed a lot of promise that day and will improve for a lot from his runner-up finish. 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    The L’Eau Cheltenham Sun

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    1:45 – Arkle Challenge Trophy Trial Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – L’Eau Du Sud @ 10/11 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    After Sir Alex Ferguson and Ged Mason achieved a double victory in Bahrain with Spirit Dancer, they’re most likely complete a double with L’Eau Du Sud. After running out a 10L at Stratford, he looked like winning potential at Graded level. This looks like easy pickings for a horse that soon compete in Grade One Chases in the near future.

     

    Destiny Calls

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    2:20 – Paddy Power Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Ginny’s Destiny @ 11/4 (General)

    Ginny’s Destiny has been the bet of the meeting, since entries were made public. He follows the same page as Stage Star, no prep run and off a mark of 155. Despite racing off a true mark, he represents a great chance for trainer who has won this race twice with Stage Star, Al Ferof and the lesser Caid Du Berlais. Ginny’s Destiny has every quality that Stage Star possesses.

    Another that should be taken note of is In Excelsis Deo for the Harry Fry stable. The trainer has already put a line through his Galway run and should be taken on his run back in April in a limited handicap chase over course and distance by nearly five lengths. With nearly the same conditions, he can certainly operate as an each-way angle at 12/1 (William Hill).

  • Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day One Tips

    Four To Follow – Cheltenham November Meeting: Day One Tips

    It’s the first big festival of the jumps season, as we go back to Cheltenham for the November meeting. Day One looks to be competitive with a novice chase and a novice hurdle with plenty of talent. Plus, we’ve action over the cross-country track too. Let’s dive in on Day One

     

    Nothing Much…

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    1:10 – Lycetts Insurance Brokers Conditional Jockeys H’cap Hurdle – Whatsupwithyou @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    The first contest at Cheltenham looks a humdinger of a handicap, with plenty of emerging talent both equine and human. With a dry Autumn, good ground horses are still the ones to side with and Whatsupwithyou has been consistent on his last four runs, including on good ground. He reappeared at Fontwell and was denied half a length in the finish but remains on the same mark today. Conditional Callum Pritchard takes off 10 pounds which sees him tumble down the handicap. Pritchard also has a decent strike rate with three wins and four placings in his last 11 rides.

    A horse making his seasonal reappearance in this contest is Il Va De Soi. Despite most of his victories coming on soft ground, he has the make-up of an improving six-year-old. He dominated on his final appearance at Uttoxeter scoring by five lengths. A change of jockey to Alice Stevens has also shown improvement, with the conditional winning twice and placing once on three rides on this mount. A definite player at 14/1 (William Hill).

    An ultra-consistent horse in the race is Stay If U Want To for the O’Neill stable. Despite being no match for the winner on reappearance at Wincanton he has still never found outside the top two in all hurdle starts. He’s already low in the handicap off rating but is further improved with a relatively new name in Benjamin Macey. Could find the frame once more at 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Buddy, This One’s For You

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    1:45 – Mucking Brilliant Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Buddy One @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Running off peak hurdle form after finishing fourth in both Cheltenham and Punchestown Stayers’ Hurdles, Buddy One wasn’t at his best last time out in a three-runner chase at Wexford. However, I’m willing to forgive that run and base it off his debut win at Galway when if he jumped well and went clear up the homestraight. Given his course form over hurdles and likes good ground, he looks a more qualified candidate than the top two British hopes

     

    Cross The Cheltenham Countryside

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    2:55 – Glenfarclas Cross Country H’cap Chase– Tommie Beau @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    With the Festival Cross Country Chase now turned back to a handicap, this could offer some valuable clues for that prestigious contest in around five months. But looking at the competition now, I’m going against Delta Work and siding with Tommie Beau.

    He’s a stayer who’s versatile on ground, but has a preference for better ground. Form is in the book too, when beating subsequent Cheltenham chase winner Lisnamult Lad back over hurdles at Cartmel in May. He weakened last time out after leading in the Durham National at Sedgefield, a race he had won the year before. He looks well-handicapped and has apparently schooled well over banks according to his trainer.

    Representing France, Sweet David comes into this race in very consistent form. He lost out by a nose contesting a X-County chase in France last time out, and was seven lengths behind dual Grand National finisher Roi Mage two starts ago. Given his vast experience, he looks mightily well-handicapped in this contest and the French do have a habit of surprising a few. 8/1 (General) to shock once more.

     

    Isn’t It Grand?

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    3:30 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Valgrand @ 6/4 (General)

    There was only one eyecatcher at the October meeting, in fact for the whole early season. Valgrand wowed everybody when hacking up by 17 lengths from the front. And whilst Potters Charm was good, he didn’t produce the same wow factor. Dan Skelton, despite complaints of a backlog due to the ground, has been the man to side with for the early part of this season. And this hose looks pretty special.

  • Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Don’t be misled by the title! We are hunting for value in the Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton. Plus, there’s the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree and the dying lights of the flat turf at Doncaster with the November handicap.

     

    Wincanton

    Boom Bet

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    2:23 – Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Boombawn @ 6/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Despite being run at Paul Nicholl’s local track, Boombawn offered much more last time out at Chepstow, Running against the Nicholls’ trained Insurrection, Boombawn looked to travel on strongly after the last. Insurrection looked to offer little, but Boombawn hunted down his rival but denied by a neck in the closing stages. Dan Skelton is in electric form and can’t see any negatives, for this horse.

     

    The Nicholls’ King

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    3:30 – 63rd Badger Beers Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Mofasa @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    It may look a depleted field for Wincanton’s biggest race, but I’ve been hunting some potential value in the race. And Mofasa looks a great bet. For Nicholls, who has won this race four times in the past ten, he’s back on a winning mark. He won a novice handicap chase off 130, and a three-pound drop sems more than enough for a horse who never shows his true potential until early on in a season.

    There’s also worth a watch on Remastered, the former Coral Gold Cup runner-up. Now 11, he won over three and a quarter miles last time out on this track, on good ground, which proves he has a winning desire. He’s only a pound lower than a previous winning mark but expect him to go hunting the field. A definite chance, in a low-class field, 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Aintree

    Frero Rocher!

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    2:40 – Boylesports Grand Sefton H’cap Chase – Frero Banbou @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Venetia Williams’ horses preferring soft ground, Frero Banbou has proven a liking for better ground. But crucially, he is three pounds lower than when placing third in last year’s contest. With experience of the ferocious National fences, and good early season record, Frero Banbou will make a good account of himself.

    Surprisingly, Vintage Fizz makes appeal in this contest. He’s a two-and-a-half-mile specialist, albeit at low level. He came close in the Summer, plus last time out when less than four lengths behind the winner, finishing fourth, at Wetherby. He’s down to a competitive mark and will easily deal with the ground. It will be interesting to see how he copes now in a higher grade. 33/1 (General).

     

    Doncaster

    November Hunting

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    3:45 – November Handicap – Valvano @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    The final big flat handicap of the season sees the end of the turf season around the country. And Valvano can finish it off with a bang. He remains relatively unexposed and steps up in trip to a mile-and-a-half. The other positive is the winner of his handicap at York, Bolster, went and won a Listed race at Newmarket which boosts his form. Plus, his trainer is operating at 34%, a terrific strike rate at the close of season.

    An amazing fact, Stressfree hasn’t finished outside of the top three in his past seven runs. An incredible record and has shown a liking for soft ground on the way too. He’s been raised a total of 10 pounds in his past six runs, which means he has progressed at a steady rate for David O’Meara. He finished ahead of Valvano then third over at this course two weeks ago. Definite claims at 9/1 (William Hill).

    Lord Melbourne may be a bit of an outside chance in this race, but with the in form conditional Jack Doughty, he’s now two pounds lower than his previous wining mark. He, too, finished behind Bolster at Epsom at the end of May. He then progressed from there on in and can offer almost a second choice for Ralph Beckett in the November handicap. 16/1 (General).

  • Five To Follow – Back The Brits (Stateside Edition)

    Five To Follow – Back The Brits (Stateside Edition)

    Not only are we treated to the jumps, but we are treated to the best flat racing action in the world. An exceptional amount of talent is on offer as we head to Del Mar, California for the Breeders’ Cup, where the Brits will be wanting to take full glory.

     

    Mystery Solved

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    7:41 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GRADE ONE) – Star Of Mystery @ 11/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    There’s one key factor as to why I don’t fancy any horse at single figure prices. They’re all drawn wide, which is a big no-no at Del Mar. Believing is also drawn in one, which isn’t as helpful as might think. So I’m settling for the Charlie Appleby-trained Star Of Mystery, who’s been consistent throughout the season.

    She finished third behind the well-fancied Cogburn in a Grade One at Santa Anita, then won a Grade Three over the same track and trip, before being touched off in a Grade Two at Keeneland. With a good draw today, she can fly home for the Brits

     

    An Old Favourite

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    9:01 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (GRADE ONE) – Emily Upjohn @ 4/1 (General)

    We relight an old fire today at Del Mar, as Frankie Dettori reunites with John Gosden and Emily Upjohn. There’s been no pazzaz with Gosden runners in the big races this season, and it looks like Dettori has left to bigger shoes to fill. But with a tried and tested combination, she may be ready to rock in what could be a swansong for the old mare.

    She hasn’t disgraced herself in her previous two starts. She’s been given a big form boost from her last start, as the top two replicated the finish in the Arc de Triomphe. She could roll back the years, and score another big prize for the Brits.

     

    Does He Win?

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    9:41 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (GRADE ONE)

    Is City Of Troy worth the hype? Has the Derby winner met a match in the fierece dirt competition America offers. The advantage has is that he is bred by Justify, and ever since a two-year-old, this has been the ultimate goal. He’s negotiated the tight twists of Epsom and has outclassed all before him.

    But, no American dirt experience. And, according to those who regularly view American racing, the kickback is fierce to the face. Plus he’s out of a Galileo mare, which means he’s mainly bred for turf. Juvenile horses grow to resemble their mothers, not their fathers. And one other key factor, regarding the best jockey in the world. Ryan Moore is 0/25 in American dirt races. A worrying factor.

    Does this mean that Fierceness, bought by Coolmore Stud in the recent days, stand a good a chance as any? Yes. Simply because he’s been aimed at the race, and is best suited to these conditions. Without City Of Troy, you’d be forgiven if this horse was odds-on.

    With City Of Troy in his race, it’s a case of see it and believe it. Or rather in this case, personally see it and believe that European horses hold zero advantage when it comes to American specialist races.

     

    One Last Try

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    10:25 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (GRADE ONE) – Content @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

    After a blowout on British Champions Day, where she was really unsuited by the slow pace, Content will end her busy campaign at the Breeders’ Cup. Although people do forget that she is a Group One winner. She won the Yorkshire Oaks in fine fashion, but wasn’t suited by the ground at Longchamp on her next start, and broke slowly. Today conditions will be in her favour and there’s more than likely to be a hot pace to latch onto.

     

    Fortuna Plenty

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    11:45 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (GRADE ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 9/4 (General)

    This looks to be a cracker of a race. But can Notable Speech be trusted. He’s failed to show up twice this season, at Ascot and Longchamp and the reports are that he didn’t travel over well. However, with Porta Fortuna, she’s been electric, and consistent. Her last win at Leopardstown was nothing short of impressive, and with American owners, has every right to come here and take the last turf prize for the Brits.

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – Whacker Job

    Four To Follow – Whacker Job

    With the jumps in full swing, we focus today on Wetherby for their highlight card of the year. The Charlie Hall Chase features a roll of honour full of racing legends, and this race has Bravemansgame, Conflated and The Real Whacker all involved. Whilst down at Ascot its big early season handicap action. A proper Saturday of racing awaits us.

     

    Wetherby

    Kat Got The Cream

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    2:22 – West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade Two) – Kateira @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Dan Skelton is currently on red hot form. Operating at 29%, it seems that most of his horses can’t go wrong. And Kateira looks to be one who can’t go wrong. She produced a taking performance in a premier handicap hurdle at Aintree. She raced in the Listed Mares Hurdle last year, but stepping up to a more manageable distance and with a weight allowance, she had to be taken to win this.

     

    Taking A Whacker

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    2:58 – Charlie Hall Chase (Grade Two) – The Real Whacker @ 10/1 (General)

    Let’s talk about the opposition first. Paul Nicholls are not to be followed at this time of the season, and Bravemansgame has no win in last seven, despite what his trainer tells us. There’s also been no 10+ year old won the race since Grey Abbey in 2004. And the Irish only managed to crack the code for this race last year.

    That leaves me with The Real Whacker. He unseated midway through the Kerry National when going well. Today the ground will be to his liking, and the level of racing will also be up to his standard. The Real Whacker also receives weight from French Dynamite which is a bonus, who won’t be far away from the finish either.

     

    Ascot

    Patience of a Saint

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    2:05 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Saint Segal @ 5/1 (General)

    A really nice contest to get the jumps action underway in Berkshire. But I’m opting with last year’s third, Saint Segal. He’s ran well the previous twice visits, including going well when falling here last November. He’s two pounds lower than his run in this contest last year, has a liking for good ground and is second up from a wind op. The signs point for the Saint.

     

    Champion Vintage

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    3:45 – Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Chianti Classico @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Ultima winner Chianti Classico has been aimed at this race as his start off point for a potential tilt at the Grand National this year. He won at Ascot last year on good ground, and has a versatility for any ground after a stellar season. He steps down from a Grade One to handicap company, and despite carrying top weight he has plenty of talent to pull it off.

    Hidden Depths has also had a good Summer, picking up valuable handicap at Perth and beating a decent Skelton horse in Mylesfromwicklow. Good ground will suit and slips into this handicap at the bottom of the weights which should give him a fighting chance. Not to be underestimated at 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Welcome back to the jumps, people! The most chaotic and most enjoyable time of the year. With Cheltenham already underway, it makes sense to focus in on some top class action there. But we don’t forget the last of the flat, with a Group One at Doncaster and two Group Three’s at Newbury. We’re up, down and all about on this Saturday.

     

    Cheltenham

    Headline Act

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    2:20 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Broadway Boy @ 3/1 (General)

    If there’s one thing I noticed on the Friday of the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham, it’s that front runners had a big advantage. Those who raced prominently were always in the finish. Combine those with a good record on good ground and first time out, and you’ll have your winner.

    Broadway Boy has more than those three factors in his favour. Add in three course wins (two over three miles) and a trainer who found two winners on Friday at Cheltenham, and you have your winner. Broadway Boy acts well on the ground and has a decent enough first-time out record, to make him the one to beat.

    Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire will add stiff opposition. He goes second-season chasing this term and finished last year on a high with a win over three miles at Perth. That day was on soft, but he appears to be versatile on all ground, so good won’t be a worry. He’s only off six pounds higher than last time and ends up mid-division on the handicaps. Worth a chance, 9/1 (William Hill).

    Unanswered Prayers has been his namesake for almost two years, with no win in handicap company. But his last win came at Cheltenham in a novice chase on good ground. It seems a little harsh that the handicapper has risen him two pounds for finishing a one-and-a-half length second last time out, but he has an ok first-time out record. Plus, course experience, he has claims at 16/1 (General).

     

    The Moral HY Ground

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    4:05 – William Hill Novices’ Chase – Hyland @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Nicky Henderson’s early season record this, and for previous seasons, Hyland looks laid out for this race. He runs well on good ground and is fresh from a 118-day break. His record fresh is a little inconsistent, but given the right ground he should act on it. He also has a bit of course and distance form after winning at Cheltenham over hurdles in a three-mile contest.

     

    Doncaster

    No More Line Judges

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    2:40 – William Hill Futurity Trophy (GROUP ONE) – Wimbledon Hawkeye @ 5/2 (General)

    With the news that there will be no line judges at the All-England Club in 147 years, and former champion Rafael Nadal retiring, you’d think that Wimbledon Hawkeye had destiny on his side.

    But his last win in a Group Two came at Newmarket came on soft ground when he wound up the Rowley hill in very good fashion. Albeit the form hasn’t been tested, he has won on soft ground which puts him at a major advantage to the others. He’s been a horse to watch this season, and could be well deserved of a Group One.

    Watch out for John & Thady Gosden trained Detain. Despite the pair’s comments that he may avoid this race, owners Juddmonte are confident enough to let him run for the first time on turf in this race. With the ground he’s run on so far, standard-to-slow, and he’s last seven length win, he’s caught eyes and ears, and may well be worth the 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Warning For All

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    3:10 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 11/4 (General)

    Despite Benevento having better form, he’s still two pounds lower in ratings than Yaroogh, who’s had a busy campaign. He clearly loves soft ground, after a May win at Haydock on soft (which has since been backed up), and last time out on heavy at Deauville in a Listed contest. He finally found true form winning by three-and-a-half lengths and can carry on, on heavy ground, today.

    His main danger will be Bob Mali. Bred from Sands Of Mali, he’s currently unbeaten from three runs, including two wins on heavy ground. The form from a conditions race at Salisbury last time out has seen the second place once more, which should be where this son of Passadouro end up. Definite potential at 6/1 (William Hill).

  • Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    It’s the flat’s biggest finale, and what a send off in store! This year sees the very best of the British and European Champions battle each other out one final time. We’ve a mouthwatering battle in the Champion Stakes and competitive action in both the Sprint Stakes and Balmoral Handicap. Let’s get stuck into Five of the best races of the year.

     

    Nothing But Love

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    1:55 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Unequal Love @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    There’s one interesting trend with this race. No former Group One winners have a good record in the race. In fact, Muhaarar was the last horse to win a sprint Group One and this race. Kinross did win the G1 Prix la Foret over seven before winning this, but not won a Group One six furlong sprint.

    The other factor is repeat winners of the race are very very rare. No horse has done it recently, and due to the competitive nature of the race. It’s unlikely it will happen again.

    It’s soft ground overall and Unequal Love looks like the best candidate to take this race out. She has soft ground form when breaking her maiden over a soft six furlongs at Ripon. She also finished a close fourth on soft ground at the end of last season, before winning on April good ground this year. After winning the Wokingham at the Royal meeting in June, she holds every chance.

    Each-way plays are useful in this race, with James’s Delight the perfect example. A fantastically progressive horse, who loves a bog. He won on heavy ground at Pontefract by six-and-a-half lengths. Ryan Moore gets the leg up, having won on him in the Macmillan Sprint at York back in June. Definite value at 14/1 (William Hill).

    Elite Status didn’t hit the heights in the Haydock Sprint Cup, but wrong tactics let him down that day when he led the field. He does like to be prominent but wants to sit behind the pace. He won twice at the start of the season and has soft ground form from his two-year-old season. Definite top-three chance. 14/1 (General).

     

    Back To Happiness

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    2:35 – British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    After her no show in the Prix Royallieu, Content is back up to her perfect distance of a mile-and-a-half. She’s versatile with her ground too, after winning on soft ground as a two-year-old. With weight being given to her, she’s the top rated horse in the race and experienced at Group One level. Draw nine on the round course might not suit her, but Ryan Moore can produce rabbits out of his hat at will.

    I quite like the chances of some of the European runners today, particularly Quantanemera. She beat Arrest on very soft (soft) ground at Deauville over 12 furlongs, which stands her in good stead. On her form, it looks like the softer the better for her and against the girls, she can be dangerous. Interesting at 15/2 (General).

     

    Fan-a French Fillies

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    3:15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Tamfana @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    Tamfana was due her Group One a couple of weeks ago at Newmarket, and she won it against experienced opposition on soft ground. Dominant can’t explain her performance any better. Now up against the boys too, I think she’s got a massive chance. Particularly with three-year-olds 8/10 in the last ten renewals. One of the top rated, and a trainer in form, it’s worth taking on the favourite.

    Another one to note is Prague. He won in spectacular fashion at the Cambridgeshire meeting in the Joel Stakes, against two mud lovers. He finally found his conditions last time out and will have them here again. After making a big step up to Group Two level last time, will he handle the bigger step up to the top level. He’s got ground and form on his side, so is worth having. 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet).

     

    Calan The Dragon

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    3:55 – Champion Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Calandagan @ 13/8 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    After an incredible season, are there any holes to poke at Economics. Yes. Is one and only two-year-old run came on heavy ground, which resulted in him finishing fourth. And he hasn’t run on any surface similar to that this season.

    Calandagan on the other hand has been ultra consistent. Firstly, he won by six lengths at Ascot which is a big plus. Secondly, he was best of the rest in the International Stakes, closing the gap on City Of Troy to a length, and finished three lengths in front of Ghostwriter. He’s won on softer ground in France over 10 furlongs, which is another big positive. He’s drawn to the inside of the course which is another positive. He can become a worthy champion, and follow in Sealiway’s footsteps on British Champions Day.

    Royal Rhyme presents fantastic each-way value. If you look a little more closely at his inconsistent form, bar the International Stakes, he has always finished close to the finish. He was only three lengths away in a bunch finish in the Irish Champion Stakes and the best part of two lengths last in a tight York Stakes. His only win this season came over ten furlongs at Sandown on soft ground, and he’s been waiting for these conditions all season. Far too big at 50/1 (General).

     

    One For The North

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    4:35 – Balmoral Handicap – Lattam @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    One more trip down the Royal Mile this season and prepare for a slog. Which will suit Lattam down to the ground. Formerly with William Haggas, he won the Irish Lincolnshire on soft to heavy ground. He finished second in this year’s Lincoln at Doncaster, and best form comes on soft ground. He’s drawn on the, traditional, bias on the far side. He’s back to a mark of 95, the same as his second in the Lincoln. Expect him to go near.

    Bopedro is never far away in these handicaps. A slightly up and down season has seen him finish second and third, latterly in the Ascot Challenge Cup. He was rated 102 on British Champions Day last year, and is down to a six pound lower mark. Best performances for him come with soft in the title, so expect him to run a race true to form. 12/1 (BetVictor).

    And one more for the in form David Menuisier, Toimy Son. He comes into the race, two pounds well in after finishing third in the Cambridgeshire. He seems to have ground versatility, but the majority of Menuisier’s love the soft conditions. Drawn to the far side, he’s got a slight advantage on the soft underfoot. 14/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend and the Cesarewitch. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    It’s Not Winter Yet

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    3:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (GROUP ONE) – The Lion In Winter @ 10/11 (General)

    I was incredibly taken when seeing him last time out in the Acomb Stakes at York. It’s never really known as a trial race, but sometimes it is used before races like the Champagne Stakes or the National in Ireland. The Lion In Winter has been given a good break since then, and the form has worked out perfectly. Steady on with backing him for the 2000 Guineas yet, but I feel he has this race in the bag.

     

    And Are We?

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    3:40 – Ceasrewitch Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ndaawi @ 12/1 (General)

    An incredibly competitive handicap, but my main pick has been let off lightly. Ndaawi ran an impressive second to Nurburgring in the Galway hurdle, but is down a pound for running seventh in the Ascot Stakes on ground he didn’t like. With ground like this in the Autumn, he can make the light weight on his back work. Jumps trainers are getting an ever increasing affection for this race, like Willie and Emmet Mullins, etc.

    Talking of the latter, Jacovec Cavern represents one of the fancier being backed for the race. He finished close up to Busselton at the Galway Festival, which is often a great pointer to the latter Autumn marathons. He’s only been risen three pounds for his close run back in July and as a result is right down the weights. Hayley Turner can deliver on a big day and make it back-t-back wins in the race for E. Mullins at 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred).

    One who is surprisingly well-in on the handicap is Premiere Ligne. He’s been incredibly consistent all season, with one win and five places to his name, four of them seconds. He hasn’t been beaten by more than two lengths in his previous six runs and comes from the Cesarewitch Trial. An even bigger plus is the five pounds been taken off by an in-form claimer. Great each-way price at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    Strike It Hot

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    2:40 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Strike Red @ 13/2 (Betfred)

    A surprisingly disappointing season for Strike Red. He has only finished in the places once, but hasn’t had anything to show for last season’s performance. However, he loves York. One win and one place in four runs at the track shows that he isn’t bad. He also performs late on in his season, with four of his career wins coming in either September or October. He’ll love the soft ground and should finally get his elusive win. He also won this race in 2022 off a pound lower mark.

    The Bell Conductor may have most of his wins over five furlongs, but shaped well when winning over six at Chester last time out. He has a clear preference for soft ground and has progressed well enough to this level. He’s only been raised two pounds for the run and has a nice draw towards the stand side, which usually is a slight bias on soft ground. Well worth 25/1 (General).

    Hyperfocus is also one not to discount. It was a similar story last year when he finished second, despite the long odds, and history might repeat itself. Plus the softer it is for him, the better. He has won twice this season, albeit at class four level, but it shows that the 10 year-old has some fight in him left, and fought for second off a three pound higher mark last year. I’m not abandoning him at 33/1 (General).

     

    Chepstow

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    Beach Baby

    2:45 – Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Springwell Bay @ 7/2 (General)

    It seemed the natural progression for Springwell Bay to go over the bigger obstacles after a great season. The former staying hurdler drops back in trip, but should progress further in time. Another benefit is having Jonjo (& AJ) O’Neill as the trainer, with Jonjo, in the last five seasons, one of the more prolific trainers in Monmouthshire. Good pedigree for fences, he should be perfect first time out in the Autumn.

     

    Best of Luck!