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Tag: horse racing tips

  • St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day One

    St Leger Festival 2024 | Four To Follow – Day One

    It’s the final classic of the year, the St Leger Festival at Doncaster. This Festival allows us to not only crown the winner of the oldest classic, but also to watch out for the future with plenty two-year-old action too. Today on day one, two-year-olds in the form of a £300,000 sales race and a Group Two. Plus the fillies’ St Leger, the Park Hill Stakes.

     

    Looking Out Below

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    2:25 – Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes – Caburn @ 4/1 (General)

    The form from this race always seems to come from York, whether it be a nursery, the sales race or any group race from the Ebor Festival. Caburn possesses, possibly, the best form in the race after racing in the Gimcrack. The third, Symbol Of Strength won on Saturday at Kempton when Caburn finished fifth. Caburn also won the Newbury Super Sprint, which is another tick in the formbook. He’s won two races on firm ground and won’t mind the good ground so long as there’s pace.

    Another horse coming down from group company is Victory Sound. He was in the same race as Field Of Gold, who won in impressive style. Whilst the form is untested, Victory Sound should be suited by both ground and trip and level. He clearly wasn’t good enough for group level, and this should be a nice toe-in for handicap company in the future. 20/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Month Number One

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    3:00 – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group Two) – January @ 8/1 (BetVictor)

    For this race, form seems to come from various outlets, but all are usually either Listed or Group company. The favourite for me, is ruled out on that basis having only competed in two novice races.

    Whilst Ryan Moore has elected to ride Ecstatic, I’m opting for January and Sean Levey. She won the Listed Churchill Stakes at Tipperary by four lengths, quite impressively. She’s also joint-top rated at 100, and has the breeding to match, being by Kingman. She also has ground form having broke her maiden on good ground back in June.

    However, Ashnoda has plenty to go for at a bigger price. She won the Prestige Stakes at Goodwood on soft ground, and seems to be rather versatile after winning on firm ground on debut. The form is untested and is steadily, yet impressively. Also joint-top rated she has much more of a say than her 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor) price suggests.

     

    Midnight Glitter

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    3:35 – Betfred Park Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Night Sparkle @ 7/2 (General)

    It’s a tricky race the Park Hill, but one horse looks to win her first race of the season. Night Sparkle has been extremely unlucky twice this season over 14 furlongs. Her defeats in the Lillie Langtry and Bronte Cup spells out that she loves the trip and looks like opposition that shouldn’t threaten her too much. Good ground won’t bother her either, having finished second in those narrow defeats on good-to-firm and good-to-soft.

    One horse who can say she has won over the distance is the rather looked over Grateful for Aidan O’Brien. The wrong race tactics were applied last time in the Lillie Langtry, as she languished towards the rear. Her win at Fairyhouse showed her up with the pace and holding on strong towards the finish. With the three-year-old weight allowance, she should be shorter than 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Rock The Boat

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    4:10 – Pertemps Network Handicap – Harper’s Ferry @ 4/1 (General)

    Harper’s Ferry comes into handicap company from a Royal Ascot Group Two. The form from the King Edward VII isn’t great, however Calandagan did finish second behind the best horse in the world, City Of Troy, in the International Stakes. He hasn’t been given top weight, which should play into his advantage. Plus the step down in trip back to 10 furlongs will suit once again.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Sprint & Stay

    Four To Follow: Sprint & Stay

    It’s a busy weekend up and down the country, in a tale of two halves. Up at Haydock, the forecast is dry for a terrific renewal of the Sprint Cup. But down South, it looks a typical Autumn day in Britain with rain covering both Ascot and Kempton. With that in mind, it makes an interesting four to follow.

     

    Haydock

    My Gift To You

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    1:15 – Superior Mile Stakes (Group Three) – Cicero’s Gift @ 100/30 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    It looks a rather competitive Group Three on paper. But take ground into consideration and it’s more an open and shut case. With two runs under his belt, Cicero’s Gift is worth appeal at his price. He won on soft ground in the Coral Challenge by half a length and came out with a good excuse at Goodwood, saying he’d prefer slower ground. He’s got that today and is the only horse in the field with soft ground favourability. He’s a favourite who should deliver.

     

    Captain Jack

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    3:35 – Sprint Cup Stakes (Group One) – Bucanero Fuerte @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    For those who don’t know, Bucanero Fuerte roughly translates as Mighty Pirate into English. And this swashbuckling horse can certainly make an impact in this Group One sprint. He’s been off the track with an injury, but not before he achieved a Group Three victory at The Curragh. Read further into his form as a two-year-old and his win in the Phoenix Stakes speaks volumes, when beating Porta Fortuna by four lengths. Top rated and a force to be reckoned with.

    Each-way value belongs to Jasour, a sprinter who’s gone quietly about his business this season. He started off with a win in the Commonwealth Cup trial, before finishing third in the race proper. Then a sixth against the older horses wasn’t too harmful to his performance. The extended break has given him time to freshen up and is on the right side of the draw. 12/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Kempton

    A Group Three Phenomenon

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    2:35 – Unibet September Stakes (Group Three) – Hamish @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    In recent years this race has been used for a trail for the Arc in France. However, this year looks unlikely. But there’s one horse who’s won Group Three races at a canter. And that’s Hamish. In fact he won this exact race back in 2021. After the season he has had, it’s hard to abandon him after his blip at Newmarket, and Lion’s Pride doesn’t look a Group horse in any shape or form.

     

    Ascot

    Say A Little Prayer

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    2:10 – Chapel Down Heritage Handicap – The Reverend @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    The Reverend has put in a good shout for his past three performances. Especially his heavy form debut, gives him an upper hand against the opposition. His dam has produced middle distance horses before, so trip shouldn’t be an issue. However with five pounds raised for nearest rival Goodwood Odyssey, the weights for The Reverend look very attractive.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Two Hot To Trot

    Four To Follow: Two Hot To Trot

    After the Ebor Festival we resume some normaialty. But it’s all about the two-year-olds at Sandown with the Solario Stakes. Plus sprint action from Beverley and big handicap action over in Ireland too. It’s a normal-ish Saturday on Four To Follow

     

    Sandown

    Tam-fantastic

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    2:25 – Atalanta Stakes (Group Three) – Tamfana @ 11/10 (BetVictor)

    Dropping down from three Group One’s to a Group Three seems dramatic. So does stepping down half a furlong. But David Menuisier seems to be taking the right approach with Tamfana. She came close to winning the French Oaks, but maybe the Grand Prix de Paris was a bit too much for her. But don’t worry about her credentials over this trip, as her mare only ran at this mile. Plus, champion jockey-elect Oisin Murphy has been given the leg up. All positive signs for the French filly.

     

    Two Shakespearean

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    3:35 – Solario Stakes (Group Three) – Royal Playwright @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    This two-year-old race has produced some decent individuals in recent years. The likes of Masar, Too Darn Hot and Reach For The Moon come to kind. But Royal Playwright looks a good type. From the same family as Strensall Stakes winner See The Fire, he’s got a reputation with good black type in his pedigree. He won by three lengths on debut, on similar ground that it is at Sandown. The second got to within a neck of the winner at Goodwood, to suggest the form might pay dividends.

     

    Beverley

    Royal Household

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    2:05 – William Hill Beverley Bullet (Listed) – Clarendon House @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    It’s surprising that Clarendon House has had a little drift at time of writing. Even with a penalty he’s still top rated and is dropping form a Group One to Listed level too. His last win over five at the Curragh was in Listed company. He loves firm ground too, but his draw could be a letdown. However, due to the lack of runners in the Beverley Bullet, draw shouldn’t matter that much as he’s drawn in the one next to outside stall. But top rated, and able to go on ground puts him in pole position.

     

    The Curragh

    Genuine Contender

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    4:35 – Irish Cambridgeshire (Premier H’cap) – Genuine Article @ 15/2 (General)

    Irish handicaps can be a tricky minefield to navigate. But luckily one stat is proven. Favourites rarely win. Last year saw the shortest priced winner in 10 years at 8/1, so it makes sense to look elsewhere for a bit of value.

    Genuine Article was last seen finishing second at the Galway Festival, after finishing third the time before. This signalled some attention when it came to this race. Only up three pounds, but a useful claimer takes three pounds off to leave him at the same mark as his last run, which should say he should go close. Good ground will suit him, and form suggests there’s been some preparation for this race.

    Johnny Murtagh always seems to target the big races as a trainer, just like he did as a jockey. Blues Emperor has been, very handily, reduced three pounds by the handicapper. But not only that, he has a five-pound claimer who got a winner five days ago. The son of Gleneagles finished a really narrow second this year and is five pounds lower too. There are signs he’s been campaigned with this race in mind. 14/1 (General).

    But it’s not one. It’s two for Mr JP Murtagh. Shayzaan for the Aga Khan also looks to have had this race in mind after he finished within a neck to Snellen of level weights. Before that he finished third in the big €52k Nasrullah handicap and has risen two pounds in his last two races. Quiet consistency and has preferred jockey Ben Coen on board. Interesting at 14/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Four Selections

    York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Four Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own Country as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day four is jam packed with handicaps, including both the Melrose and the £500,000 Ebor handicap, the richest in the country. Who will see their name printed on a ticket to Melbourne t around 3:30, and what about the others. Find out below.

     

    Big Race View

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    The Ebor handicap is the big race of the day and there are plenty of factors and fancies in this race, so I’ve managed to whittle it down to about three. Criteria for me is performed on good-to-firm ground, won over a mile and four and at least raced over a mile and six, the trip for the Ebor.

    Magical Zoe could follow in Absurde’s footsteps by competing and winning in the two different racing classes. Known for her efforts behind Ebor winner Absurde in the County Hurdle, she won over a mile and five breaking her flat maiden. She then competed in a Group three at Fairyhouse, finishing a respectable third. Her mark is in the hundreds, and she has the shortest route around coming out of stall one.

    Fairbanks was a narrow loser at Glorious Goodwood, but comes into this handicap two pounds well-in, which is a huge advantage. Not only has he won over a mile and four, but has done it over a mile and six and proved that firm ground is suitable for him last time out. However, he’ll have to overcome a wide-ish draw to win.

    Naqeeb has been looking to build for this race. After below-par group efforts, he put in a good performance at Goodwood over two miles. As a three-year-old he won over 14 furlongs at Haydock, so he’s no novice to this kind of distance. And last time out also proved he can cope with conditions too.

    Big Race Bet: Ebor Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Magical Zoe @ 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Fairbanks e/w @ 12/1 (General), Naqeeb e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    Not top of the card, but the Julia Graves Roses Stakes is a hot little contest with form to watch out for.

    Despite Big Mojo’s fourth (blame the draw), Celandine has backed up the form for Mr Lightside. Clearly bred to sprint, he has to overcome stall 13 which is a negative. But with two-year-old races, they don’t often follow the form of the older horses and maybe Mr Lightside’s speed will get the better of the field.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – Mr Lightside @ 11/4 (BetVictor)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    For this handy handicap I’m looking at the Constantine handicap, the newest heritage handicap on the calendar.

    Summerghand is looking for a third victory in the race, and he isn’t without a shout even if he has been below par in the majority of his races this season. Maybe a heartfelt wager would be suitable.

    But Elmonjed has pretty much everything going for him in the race. He is drawn in stall two, where the bias has been all week. Can handle the firm conditions and finished third in the Macmillan Sprint earlier this season. On top of that he’s only been raised three pounds for his latest win at Windsor and has risen one pound throughout his three-year-old career, after dipping into the eighties. A clear improver and a favourite worth backing.

    Handy Handicap Bet: Constantine Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Elmonjed @ 11/2 (General), Summerghand e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Strensall Stakes (Group Three) – See The Fire @ 5/2 (William Hill), T/Cast: See The Fire, Alyanaabi, Phantom Flight
    14:25 – Melrose Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Spaceport e/w @ 16/1 (General), Going Remote e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill), Mo Ghille Mar e/w @ 25/1 (General)
    15:00 – City Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Audience @ 11/8 (William Hill), F/Cast: Audience, Lake Forest
    15:35 – Ebor Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Magical Zoe @ 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Fairbanks e/w @ 12/1 (General), Naqeeb e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)
    16:10 – Constantine Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Elmonjed @ 11/2 (General), Summerghand e/w @ 9/1 (William Hill), Harry Three e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)
    16:45 – Julia Graves Roses Stakes (Listed) – Mr Lightside @ 11/4 (BetVictor)
    17:20 – Finale Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ron O @ 7/1 (William Hill), Oviedo e/w @ 17/2 (William Hill), Chasing Aphrodite e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Three Selections

    York Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Three Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own County as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day Three is all about the Nunthorpe Stakes. It’s Big Evs vs Asfoora for the third time this season. Who’s going to come out on top? Find out with selections for all seven races below.

     

    Big Race View

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    This looks to be a two horse race once again between Britain and Australia. It’s 1-1, so who will come out on top this time?

    As ever the draw is key. And this year far side runners, or low numbers, are preferred. This means that Asfoora has a big advantage over Big Evs who’s drawn one form the stand side rail. With the rain coming, does that suit Big Evs a little, I think not. However, they should run out a belting finish

    Out of the others Starlust has particular appeal to me, given that his record at York is near perfect (211). Asking him to repeat his wins this season at Group One level might be too much. But he should run on for a place.

    Big Race Bet: Nunthorpe Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Asfoora @ 13/8 (William Hill), Starlust e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports). Asfoora/Big Evs – F/cast. Asfoora/BigEvs/Starlust – T/cast

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    Once again this looks another tight York two-year-old contest, but a Goodwood one-two-three should be the form to follow. Winners of this race have come from the Glorious meeting, which is often the form to follow in the Gimcrack.

    Big Mojo was getting closed down by Aesterius in the final furlong at Goodwood. But, I’m adamant when I watch the race again he should hang on for the extra furlong. He steps up to the extra furlong today, he should be able to deliver on his big promise from Goodwood.

    Billboard Star has a lot on his side too. His form from Newmarket has been backed up by Whistlejacket in the Prix Morny and Aomori City at Goodwood. That second came on good-to-soft ground and he should finish for a place on that basis.

    Cool Hoof Luke finished ahead of Billboard City in the Vintage Stakes and should take liking to good ground, and all ground, if going on sires form. This looks to be the race of future sires and expect it to be competitive, with plenty of value on offer.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Big Mojo @ 7/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Billboard Star e/w @ 18/1 (888Sport, Boylesports), Cool Hoof Luke e/w @ 20/1 (General)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    We’re taking a look at the fifth race on the card, the mile-and-a-quarter Fillies’ Handicap, where there’s definitely value to get stuck into.

    Albeit, it’s with the favourite, but Power Of Destiny should not be up a solitary pound for finishing within a head last time out at Windsor. Ground-wise he should be able to go on anything good to good-to-firm, which should be the ground reading by about 12:30 in the afternoon. One pound plus a consistent debut season should not go ignored.

    Neither should Bint Al Daar, becasue she finished second to Karmology in her one but previous start. Who, if it wasn’t for Scenic, would have finished much closer in the Galtres Stakes. As it happens, she went and won her race at Wolverhampton for team East and is only up four pounds for the run. She should have ability to run all grounds if that win is to go by.

    Handy Handicap Bet: York EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Power Of Destiny @ 5/1 (General), Bint Al Daar e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Sky Bet Heritage Handicap – Lieber Power @ 8/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports), Track Of Time e/w @ 40/1 (William Hill, Boylepsorts)
    14:25 – Lonsdale Cup (Group Two) – Quickthorn @ 12/1 (General), Quicktorn/Point Lonsdale/Vauban – T/cast
    15:00 – Gimcrack Stakes (Group Two) – Big Mojo @ 7/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Billboard Star e/w @ 18/1 (888Sport, Boylesports), Cool Hoof Luke e/w @ 20/1 (General)
    15:35 – Nunthorpe Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Asfoora @ 13/8 (William Hill), Starlust e/w @ 16/1 (Boylesports). Asfoora/Big Evs – F/cast. Asfoora/BigEvs/Starlust – T/cast
    16:10 – EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Power Of Destiny @ 5/1 (General), Sound Angela e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill, Unibet), Bint Al Daar e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill)
    16:45 – Convivial Maiden – Ultrasoul @ 9/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Arabian Angel e/w @ 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Bowen Island e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill)
    17:20 – Mile Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Dosman @ 9/2 (General), Mount Teide e/w @ 7/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet), Tokenomics e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Two Selections

    Ebor Festival 2024 | Day Two Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own County as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day Two is full of mouth-watering contests, including the Yorkshire Oaks which sees an open field, including a progressive three-year-old, the one-two from the Irish Oaks and a fans favourite. Who come out on top? Find out with selections for all seven races below.

     

    Big Race View

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    This is a very open renewal of the Yorkshire Oaks, with no definite favourite and plenty of horses with support.

    Queen Of The Pride has excelled this season. She cut her teeth at Haydock by winning the Lester Piggott Stakes narrowly in June and scorched clear of another improving horse, Tiffany, in the Lancashire Oaks. The long straight suits her, but firm ground is an area she hasn’t covered before and could be her Achilles heel.

    Content has been another progressive horse this season. She was the best three-year-old in the Pretty Polly Stakes, then was denied a clear run in the Irish Oaks but rallied well to finish second. However, it looks like she wants rain having raced on fast ground three times and never won.

    You Got To Me may have been a surprise winner of the Irish Oaks, but she held on well and has a little boost from Royal Ascot too. The firm ground should suit her front-running style, but front runners aren’t usually favoured at York, yet Ryan Moore judged City Of Troy’s ride from the front perfectly yesterday.

    Or can Kieran Shoemark finally break his big race curse and deliver Emily Upjohn for the Yorkshire Oaks. She has been disappointing, barring her terrific run in the Pretty Polly. But I favour the three-year-olds more.

    Out of the four top names mentioned, Content is the pick. With a clearer run she should have caught You Got To Me at The Curragh. That’s not to say she’ll face a big fight from a lot of rivals, but she looks a tough horse.

    Big Race Bet: Yorkshire Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General), You Got To Me e/w @ 9/2 (General) – F/CAST

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    This looks a tight contest for the fillies. Plenty of angles from a mixture of races make it hard to find the right form race to follow. The history of this race also varies with no one path being the right one. However, those bred by sprinters seem to be the ones who come out on top.

    In which case Miss Lamai makes sense. She has two wins to her name and has some Listed form to her name too. Bred by Mehmas, she is a future group sprinter and the step up to six won’t bother her at all. Karl Burke also has a good record in the Lowther, winning it twice since 2019.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Miss Lamai @ 8/1 (William Hill)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    The Clipper Handicap is often very volatile. Very few at the top of the market win this race and we’ve been treated to a few shocks in recent years. 40/1 Ropey Guest last year and 28/1 Cruyff Turn in 2021 hammer home that there is potential throughout the market.

    Two grab attention for me. James McHenry has had a consistent season with a win and two seconds, including losing to La Trinidad at Thirsk last time out. He remains on the same mark whilst La Trinidad suffers with a penalty. He also has won on firm ground which is a big plus and steps up into the big handicap company with a workable weight.

    Metal Merchant started his season with a win in the Spring Cup but has fallen under the radar in requisite runs. However, he’s been dropped a pound for finishing a length behind in the International Stakes at Ascot in fourth and also comes into the race two pounds well-in. Signs look postitive for this York racecourse debutant.

    Handy Handicap Bet: Clipper Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – James McHenry e/w @ 11/1 (General), Metal Merchant e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Lowther Stakes (Group Two) – Miss Lamai @ 8/1 (William Hill), Tales Of The Heart e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    14:25 – Goffs Premier Yearling Stakes – An Outlaw’s Grace @ 4/1 (William Hill), Territorial Knight e/w @ 11/1 (William Hill), Sensorium e/w @ 22/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)
    15:00 – Clipper Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – James McHenry e/w @ 11/1 (General), Metal Merchant e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)
    15:35 – Yorkshire Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General), You Got To Me e/w @ 9/2 (General) – F/CAST
    16:10 – Galtres Stakes (Listed) – Sea Just In Time @ 9/4 (William Hill, Unibet)
    16:45 – EBF Nursery – Spell Master @ 7/1 (William Hill), Original Outlaw e/w @ 13/2, Hot Property e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    17:20 – British EBF Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Alfa Kenellic @ 8/1 (William Hill), Sunfall e/w @ 11/1 (General), Queen Of Mougins e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • Ebor Festival 2024 | Day One Selections

    Ebor Festival 2024 | Day One Selections

    Racing heads to God’s Own County as York hosts the prestigious Ebor Festival. Day One is full of mouth-watering contests, including the Juddmonte International which sees City Of Troy face his biggest challenge yet on the Knavesmire. Can he step up to the challenge? Find out with selections for all seven races below.

     

    Big Race View

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    This is by far the best renewal of the Juddmonte International for a long time. 13 runners head to post, led by the Ballydoyle superstar City Of Troy. What challenges await him, and is he up to the challenge?

    First he has to overcome his issue of hanging to the right. At Epsom, he was led away by a loose but there was no excuse at Sandown. It’s a half-mile straight at York, and his big galloping style will definitely suit and he should iron out that issue. And despite not running on firm ground, he’s by two horses that relish fast conditions. He’s value whilst he’s odds-against.

    Looking down the market, Ambiente Friendly should also run a good race. Bred for this distance by a miler and out of an unbeaten mile-and-quarter mare, he should relish the drop in trip after two tough Derby tests.

    Value is undoubtedly with the French horse, but not Calandgan. For me, Zarakem ran a stormer of a race in the Prince of Wales’s at Ascot, and was close to running down Auguste Rodin. It’s his preferred distance and seems to go on any ground. I don’t think he’ll win, but he’ll be mighty close.

    Big Race Bet: Juddmonte International Stakes (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy WIN @ 11/8 (General), Ambiente Friendly e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill), Zarakem e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)

     

    Juvenile Jotter

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    This race has been deemed an open and shut case by the bookmakers. There’s a 15.5 point gap between second favourite The Lion In Winter and third favourite Wimbledon Hawkeye. Only one favourite has won in the past 10 years and Charlie Appleby has never won the race. Aidan O’Brien has not won the race since 2000, so it makes sense to look elsewhere.

    Yaroogh is my choice, as all horses from the last ten years have come out of either maidens or novices races. He’s one of the more experienced after last in a hot Newmarket maiden in April, then readily won at Haydock with the form backed up from that race. He’s yet to prove himself on firm ground, but he’s progressive and should be stepping up to middle distances at three.

    Juvenile Jotter Bet: Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 22/1 (Boylesports)

     

    Handy Handicap Guide

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    This meeting is peppered with handicaps, with Northern trainers all aiming there horses throughout the season for these valuable races. No less so than in our first race the Symphony Handicap. This sprint race has been won seven times out of the last 10 years by Northern trainers, and one horse has been aimed specifically for this race.

    Jm Jungle, who finished a tight third in last year’s contest hasn’t had a great season. But he is racing off a mark of 88, four pounds lower than last year. He’s also in a significant place in the draw. He’s in the low numbers, where there is an identified pace setter. Knowing he’s been targeted at this race, on a lower mark than last year and in a nice draw make the choice a bit easier in a highly competitive race.

    Handy Handicap Bet: Symphony Group Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Jm Jungle e/w @ 10/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    13:50 – Symphony Group Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Jm Jungle e/w @ 10/1 (General), Tees Spirit e/w @ 25/1 (General), Squealer e/w @ 33/1 (William Hill)
    14:25 – Tattersalls Acomb Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 22/1 (Boylesports), Diablo Rojo e/w @ 25/1 (General), Rajeko e/w @ 25/1 (General)
    15:00 – Great Voltigeur Stakes (Group Two) – Los Angeles @ 13/8 (William Hill)
    15:35 – Juddmonte International Stakes (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy WIN @ 11/8 (General), Ambiente Friendly e/w @ 15/2 (William Hill), Zarakem e/w @ 12/1 (William Hill)
    16:10 – Stayers Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Knightswood @ 15/2 (William Hill), Forza Orta e/w @ 9/1 (General)
    16:45 – ITM Fillies’ Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Got To Love A Grey @ 11/2 (Betfred, Boylesports), Designer e/w @ 10/1 (William Hill)
    17:20 – Nursery Handicap – Artagnan @ 6/1 (William Hill), Cayman Tai e/w @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow: Rare Visit To Ripon

    Four To Follow: Rare Visit To Ripon

    We’re setting up camp in North Yorkshire this week. With the Ebor Festival next week, we head to the dales to visit Ripon for their premier meeting. The Great St. Wilfred handicap is full of your favourite sprinters, whilst down at Newbury there’s group action and the Irish St. Leger Trial at the Curragh.

     

    Ripon

    A Queen Classic

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    3:20 – William Hill Great St. Wilfrid Handicap – Radio Goo Goo @ 10/1 (General)

    There’s been a lot to like about Radio Goo Goo this season. She had her first win of the season at Ripon over C&D, then won at Chester before two close finishes at Newmarket and in the Racing League at Chepstow last time out. She should overturn that result with Manila Scouse and she’s drawn in the paciest part of the field. Firmer ground tends to favour stand side horses, but those drawn low have pace to latch on to today.

    Almarada Prince is either on it or off it, and hopefully today he’s on it. He was impressive finishing in behind the well finishing James’s Delight in the Macmillan Sprint but didn’t go one better next time out on the all-weather. However he’s on a competitive mark and likes to get a good toe into the race. Another positive for him is that Ripon on a dry day suits front runners. 16/1 (General).

    Emperor Spirit has been running at five furlongs this season, but has always ran at six furlongs for much of his career. Last year he finished seventh off a mark of 92 and is three pounds lower this time around. Going on evidence this season, he can be hot and cold and needs a repeat performance of his performance at Ascot when beaten a head by Albasheer. Definitely eye-catching at the price, 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Newbury

    Freer Gear

    1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group Three) – Al Qareem @ 7/2 (William Hill)

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    It’s really a race between the top two, as Sumo Sam needs soft ground, Roberto Escobarr’s best days are behind him and it’s Go Daddy’s first time in a British Group race.

    So why Al Qareem over a highly impressive Al Aasy? Well, Al Aasy hasn’t raced at this trip since winning the Bahrain Trophy, whilst Al Qraeem is an out and out stayer. Al Qareem was also unlucky here at the start of the season, but did give Hamish a run for his money. This looks to be a race that will really suit him.

     

    Hunger-y For More

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    3:35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group Two) – Kikkuli @ 11/4 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Kikkuli was really disappointing in the Group One Prix Jean Prat, but maybe he wasn’t ready for the top level, just yet. Ignore that race and look to his great battle with Haatem in the Jersey Stakes. He battled hard and just needed that little bit more to pass. English Oak seemed to struggle in his foray into Group company, and is worth opposing again.

    Folgaria also is a fancy at the prices. She won the Fred Darling Stakes, often used as a trial for a 1000 Guineas, but didn’t find her feet in the two requisite Group Ones, but she could not have fallen into a better form race if she tried when racing in the Coronation Stakes. She may need a bit more dig in the ground come post time, but I like her chances at 14/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Curragh

    Crazy Horse

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    4:35 – Irish St. Leger Trial Stakes (Group Three) – Absurde @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Willie’s in the bumper, anyone? Absurde is a high class horse in both disciplines, and after his victory in last year’s Ebor he ticks every box for a stayer on the flat. Grosvenor Square ran a hearty race against his elders in the Curragh Cup, but was second string that day. Absurde, despite giving weight away, will handle pretty much anything in his way and his price makes appeal.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Babouche Babouche

    Four To Follow: Babouche Babouche

    After the thrill of Glorious Goodwood, we calm down a little before the Ebor Festival in a couple of weeks time. Today, it’s Group One action over in Ireland with the Phoenix Stakes. The highly exciting Whistlejacket takes on the unbeaten Babouche, in a fascinating contest. Plus three races from the UK, to make it a regular four to follow.

     

    Curragh

    Running Up That Hill

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    4:35 – Phoenix Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Babouche @ 5/2 (General)

    Despite Whisltejacket being a full brother to Little Big Bear who won this race two years ago, there still is chinks in the armour that can be exploited. Babouche is the one who can exploit those minor faults. She was a much better finisher than Camille Pissaro and should step up in trip in the very near future. In recent years, Aidan O’Brien has loosened his chokehold on the race and Ger Lyons can pounce with this exciting filly

     

    Haydock

    Shadwell Shining

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    3:00 – Betfred Rose Of Lancaster Stakes (Group Three) – Anmaat @ 15/8 (William Hill)

    Despite being very, very lightly raced, Anmaat is a horse with fantastic ability. Owen Burrows seems to bring him out at particular moments of the season, including this race which he won in 2022. He was last seen winning a French Group One. In May 2023. He’s incredibly consistent, goes well fresh and has gone well on good-to-firm. Clearly the one to beat and the one to side with.

     

    Good Chois

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    4:45 – Dick Hern Stakes (Listed) – Choisya @ 9/1 (General)

    This Listed race has the potential to be the race of the day across the UK and Ireland. Some talented fillies take to the track, but only a couple of them go on firm ground. An it’s those horses to side with in a tight race like this.

    Choisya hasn’t been seen since May at Goodwood, with that race producing a winner at Goodwood and a winner in Ireland in the months since. Her last win on turf was on good-to-soft but won on good-to-firm ground at Haydock in her only other win on turf in her career. Simon & Ed Crisford are again in decent form and her price seems overpriced.

    Dora Milaje may be the outsider, but is one who relishes firm ground. She has made a great step up in class from class four handicaps to listed contests. She steps down in distance on her preferred ground, and may have been her excuse when finishing fourth in the Pomfet Stakes at Pontefract last month. Still a good each-way price considering she’s an outsider at 18/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newmarket

    Sweet Splash

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    3:40 – Sweet Solera Stakes (Group Three) – Lake Victoria @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Lake Victoria is one from one after edging her maiden win ahead of Red Letter. Since then Red Letter has followed up and franked the form, plus the fifth placed horse has too. With form on her side, plus good pedigree related to former O’Brien stable Bluegrass. She might not have the hopes of Ballydoyle to become a future star, but experience doesn’t count for nothing.

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day Five – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day Five – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today it’s the Stewards’ Cup as the sprinters, once again, take their turn to thunder down the hill on the Sussex Downs. So don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Glorious Ghost

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    1:50 – Glorious Stakes (Group Three) – Phantom Flight @ 11/4 (BetVictor)

    A small contest, with plenty of tactics. But, due to the lack of firm ground performers I settle with Phantom Flight. He’s the only horse with firm ground form, and beat Al Aasy on it too. Aimeric also acts on good ground but has never won it and neither Lion’s Pride nor Relentless Voyager have either. Ground preference is crucial, particularly when five horses are separated by a point in the market.

     

    Fair Weather

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    2:25 – Summer Handicap – Fairbanks @ 3/1 (General)

    Fairbanks has come alive this season in handicaps. Two wins and a second in five runs shows how consistent he is. If you add on his sixth start, a one-and-a-half mile handicap on firm ground make it three wins. He’s consistently on the upgrade and, despite a six pound rise, shows great promise stepping up to a mile-and-six.

    Charlie Johnston has only managed one winner at Goodwood this week, with Arisaig in a class three fillies handicap. However, if he wants to carry on his father’s tradition of winning big handicaps at Goodwood this is his last chance. He has two in this race, and I favour what the market determine as his weaker horse, Knightswood. He won twice last season, including once on firm ground. He’s dropped a pound after finishing fourth to Fairbanks at Newmarket, but his weight in the race in near the bottom, which makes him competitive at 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Course Choir

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    3:00 – Lillie Langtry Stakes (Group Two) – Caius Chorister @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    Two years ago, Caius Chorister sent punters flying when she won five-in-a-row, culminating in a handicap at Goodwood. She then went and finished second in a Melrose at York, but since then she’s morphed herself into an underestimated, staying filly. Dropping well back to 14 furlongs will suit her better than the marathon trip of two-and-half miles, and she has firm ground which she loves. That win in 2022 at the Glorious meeting also gives her another positive.

    Grateful only had one race as a two-year-old, but has had three wins at three, including a Group Three over the distance. Her pedigree is astonishing. By Galileo and out of a six time Group One winner Tepin, who won the Queen Anne, Woodbine Mile and Breeders’ Cup mile, she has some expectation. To see her priced at 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) is frankly an insult to her bloodline.

     

    Goodwood Gallop

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    3:35 – Stewards’ Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Purosangue @ 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Purosangue is made for this race. He’s won on firm ground before, and Andrew Balding has experience of winning the race with a three-year-old before. He ran a great race, just pipped by Makarova at Sandown. He’s handicapped well, despite having a rating of 101. Drawn right in the middle of the track, he has plenty of options to decide where the pace lies. Particularly with Oisin Murphy on board. A brilliant combination.

    Lethal Levi came second last time out over seven furlongs, but is a sprinter at heart. He won over six furlongs back in May at Newbury. Since then he’s gone up seven pounds in four runs, which is respectable and reapplies the blinkers again today. He hasn’t won off a mark of 98, but he’s low in the weights and has acts on firm ground. Player at 11/1 (William Hill).

    Rumstar came second back in May at Newbury and wasn’t impressive at Royal Ascot this season. He unseated in this race last season, but has won at Goodwood in a nursery on firm ground. So long as he doesn’t trip out of the stalls, he should have a good chance. Particularly when drawn next to a key area of pace. Value at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!