Best Of Bets

Tag: horse racing tips

  • Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Four To Follow – Badgers Hunting

    Don’t be misled by the title! We are hunting for value in the Badger Beers Handicap Chase at Wincanton. Plus, there’s the Grand Sefton over the National fences at Aintree and the dying lights of the flat turf at Doncaster with the November handicap.

     

    Wincanton

    Boom Bet

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    2:23 – Rising Stars Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Boombawn @ 6/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Despite being run at Paul Nicholl’s local track, Boombawn offered much more last time out at Chepstow, Running against the Nicholls’ trained Insurrection, Boombawn looked to travel on strongly after the last. Insurrection looked to offer little, but Boombawn hunted down his rival but denied by a neck in the closing stages. Dan Skelton is in electric form and can’t see any negatives, for this horse.

     

    The Nicholls’ King

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    3:30 – 63rd Badger Beers Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Mofasa @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    It may look a depleted field for Wincanton’s biggest race, but I’ve been hunting some potential value in the race. And Mofasa looks a great bet. For Nicholls, who has won this race four times in the past ten, he’s back on a winning mark. He won a novice handicap chase off 130, and a three-pound drop sems more than enough for a horse who never shows his true potential until early on in a season.

    There’s also worth a watch on Remastered, the former Coral Gold Cup runner-up. Now 11, he won over three and a quarter miles last time out on this track, on good ground, which proves he has a winning desire. He’s only a pound lower than a previous winning mark but expect him to go hunting the field. A definite chance, in a low-class field, 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Aintree

    Frero Rocher!

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    2:40 – Boylesports Grand Sefton H’cap Chase – Frero Banbou @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Venetia Williams’ horses preferring soft ground, Frero Banbou has proven a liking for better ground. But crucially, he is three pounds lower than when placing third in last year’s contest. With experience of the ferocious National fences, and good early season record, Frero Banbou will make a good account of himself.

    Surprisingly, Vintage Fizz makes appeal in this contest. He’s a two-and-a-half-mile specialist, albeit at low level. He came close in the Summer, plus last time out when less than four lengths behind the winner, finishing fourth, at Wetherby. He’s down to a competitive mark and will easily deal with the ground. It will be interesting to see how he copes now in a higher grade. 33/1 (General).

     

    Doncaster

    November Hunting

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    3:45 – November Handicap – Valvano @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    The final big flat handicap of the season sees the end of the turf season around the country. And Valvano can finish it off with a bang. He remains relatively unexposed and steps up in trip to a mile-and-a-half. The other positive is the winner of his handicap at York, Bolster, went and won a Listed race at Newmarket which boosts his form. Plus, his trainer is operating at 34%, a terrific strike rate at the close of season.

    An amazing fact, Stressfree hasn’t finished outside of the top three in his past seven runs. An incredible record and has shown a liking for soft ground on the way too. He’s been raised a total of 10 pounds in his past six runs, which means he has progressed at a steady rate for David O’Meara. He finished ahead of Valvano then third over at this course two weeks ago. Definite claims at 9/1 (William Hill).

    Lord Melbourne may be a bit of an outside chance in this race, but with the in form conditional Jack Doughty, he’s now two pounds lower than his previous wining mark. He, too, finished behind Bolster at Epsom at the end of May. He then progressed from there on in and can offer almost a second choice for Ralph Beckett in the November handicap. 16/1 (General).

  • Haldon Gold Cup Day | Venetia Wonderland

    Haldon Gold Cup Day | Venetia Wonderland

    The Haldon Gold Cup looks like a fascinating race this year with potential Grade 1 horses looking to kick their seasons off on the front foot.

    Below, I voice my thoughts on the race with one further bet at Exeter to mention.

    But first, a look back on last week.

    Successes with Our Champ and The Real Whacker put the column in profit by 9.3pts (15% ROI) for November and 45.85pts since March 2024 (10% ROI).

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    2:25 Exeter – Djelo @ 5/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    I’ll start this piece on the Haldon Gold Cup with a caveat.

    How far Etalon can continue to improve is a big unknown, and his form of beating Martator (now rated 140) is solid, but the reason I’m leaving him alone is due to ground conditions (unraced on good) and the fact it’s his first run of the season as well.

    He is a danger in my book, but Djelo has plenty of upsides that are hard to ignore.

    He gets two pounds from JPR One, the now second favourite, yet his form is arguably better on paper.

    On seasonal reappearance last year, he beat Master Chewy when getting two pounds in weight. Master Chewy went on to bolt up in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase before nearly beating Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase.

    In his next two starts, Djelo beat the subsequent winner Persian Time at Newbury before smashing up the now 145-rated Kandoo Kid in the Grade 2 Noel Novices’ Chase.

    That win came on good to soft and the race was run just 6.77 seconds slower than average, so the ground was fairly fast.

    He was disappointing at the Aintree Grand National Festival, but that was his seventh run of the season and it came after a respectable third in a hot renewal of the Grade 1 Turners Novices’ Chase.

    Venetia Williams hasn’t had too many runners recently, but of her four representatives over the last two weeks, Martator won and Galop De Chasse finished second.

    That yard form is promising, and I think he’s the best horse in this race.

     

    3:35 Exeter – Coco Mademoiselle @ 2/1 with William Hill – 2pt Win

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    I always try to find the big-priced value, but Coco Mademoiselle appeals the most in the penultimate race.

    Only a few here are race-fit, notably Tightenourbelts, Tea Clipper, and Coco Mademoiselle, and while the former has a fair chased based on the form book, the stable form of Emma Lavelle is a worry.

    The favourite, however, is trained by Dan Skelton who is in sound form at the moment (26% strike rate) and her run at Worcester 42 days ago will put on spot on for today.

    The third, Weveallbeencaught, ran a solid race behind Lisnamult Lad at the Cheltenham October Meeting to frank the form as well.

    She gets five pounds from Beachcomber and seven pounds from Tightenourbelts which looks good based on her form in the book.

    Four starts ago, she gave seven pounds away to Springtime Promise – a subsequent Grade 2 winner – in a Huntington novice hurdle before she finished the season with a second in a valuable mares’ handicap hurdle at Ayr

    From that race, Saylavee (3rd) beat the smart Zanahiyr over fences, Ottizzini (4th) bolted up at Ayr earlier this month, and Pink In The Park (5th) won a Listed chase yesterday.

    Off 122, she can easily improve over fences and will strip fitter for her run in September.

  • Breeders Cup Day 2 Frosty reception

    Breeders Cup Day 2 Frosty reception

    Yesterday at the Breeders’ Cup didn’t go to plan for the column, but the fancies over jumps performed well today.

    The Real Whacker and Our Champ delivered at Wetherby and Ascot respectively to put the column in good profit for the weekend.

    So, let’s roll on with today’s Breeders’ Cup selections.

    19:00 Del Mar – Frost At Dawn @ 20/1 with Bet365 (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    I’m not an expert when it comes to dirt racing, but Frost At Dawn is certainly interesting in the Filly & Mare Sprint.

    The booking of Frankie Dettori is eye-catching and she has some nice form in the book, notably when winning in Meydan earlier this year.

    She beat Star Of Mystery that day who went on to place in two Group 1s and a Group 2 subsequently.

    She won easily that day and the fourth, Ponntos, was a fine fifth in the Group 1 Nunthorpe Stakes subsequently.

    Although Frost At Dawn has raced mainly on the turf, she has some fine experience on dirt, notably when second at Meydan in December.

    I think she has plenty of ability and her form is working out nicely.

    She also has a nice draw in one and gets weight from her elders, so she’s worth a chance at a big price.

    21:01 Del Mar – Emily Upjohn @ 5/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    It’s a case of last chance saloon for Emily Upjohn this evening, though there is reason to think she can return to her best.

    Firstly, Frankie Dettori returns to the saddle and secondly, she gets to run on quick ground.

    When was the last time she had these conditions? At Epsom last year when rocketing home in the Group 1 Coronation Cup.

    The second, Westover, won a Group 1 on his next start and then finished second in both the King George at Ascot and Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe at Longchamp.

    As for her form this season, she travelled like the winner in the Yorkshire Oaks but didn’t find much. Her finishing effort was disappointing, but she arguably got to the front too early that day.

    On her last start, she finished a staying on third to the subsequent Arc winner Bluestocking, so the form is there.

    22:25 Del Mar – Content @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    There’s a chance that Content could be too good in the Filly & Mare.

    As mentioned, she won the Yorkshire Oaks on good to firm ground and she also finished fourth at the Breeders’ Cup last year on firm ground.

    So, there’s hope she’ll handle the ground nicely, and there’s a lot to like about her form.

    She finished a staying on third to Bluestocking and Emily Upjohn in the Group 1 Pretty Polly Stakes at the Curragh in June.

    Furthermore, Mistral Star, who finished fourth in the Yorkshire Oaks, finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Royallieu to further frank the form of the race.

    She has a good chance tonight if she settles early as she can get quite hot-headed.

    23:45 Del Mar – Notable Speech @ 9/4 with Coral – 2pt Win

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    The Mile looks like a good race and Porta Fortuna is a formidable opponent, but Notable Speech has greatly impressed me this season.

    His Guineas success speaks for itself, though it’s worth reminding what the form of the race looks like.

    Subsequently, Rosallion won two Group 1s, Haatem won the Group 3 Jersey Stakes, Ghostwriter finished third in Coral-Eclipse and Juddmonte International, and Inisherin won the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup.

    Notable Speech won a fine renewal of the Group 1 Sussex Stakes two starts later and the third, Facteur Cheval, chased home Charyn in the QEII last month.

    He looks like the type who will really appreciate fast-paced American racing as he has a high cruising speed and a good turn of foot.

    He’s smart, and I hope he shows that tonight.

  • Five To Follow – Back The Brits (Stateside Edition)

    Five To Follow – Back The Brits (Stateside Edition)

    Not only are we treated to the jumps, but we are treated to the best flat racing action in the world. An exceptional amount of talent is on offer as we head to Del Mar, California for the Breeders’ Cup, where the Brits will be wanting to take full glory.

     

    Mystery Solved

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    7:41 – Breeders’ Cup Turf Sprint (GRADE ONE) – Star Of Mystery @ 11/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    There’s one key factor as to why I don’t fancy any horse at single figure prices. They’re all drawn wide, which is a big no-no at Del Mar. Believing is also drawn in one, which isn’t as helpful as might think. So I’m settling for the Charlie Appleby-trained Star Of Mystery, who’s been consistent throughout the season.

    She finished third behind the well-fancied Cogburn in a Grade One at Santa Anita, then won a Grade Three over the same track and trip, before being touched off in a Grade Two at Keeneland. With a good draw today, she can fly home for the Brits

     

    An Old Favourite

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    9:01 – Breeders’ Cup Turf (GRADE ONE) – Emily Upjohn @ 4/1 (General)

    We relight an old fire today at Del Mar, as Frankie Dettori reunites with John Gosden and Emily Upjohn. There’s been no pazzaz with Gosden runners in the big races this season, and it looks like Dettori has left to bigger shoes to fill. But with a tried and tested combination, she may be ready to rock in what could be a swansong for the old mare.

    She hasn’t disgraced herself in her previous two starts. She’s been given a big form boost from her last start, as the top two replicated the finish in the Arc de Triomphe. She could roll back the years, and score another big prize for the Brits.

     

    Does He Win?

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    9:41 – Breeders’ Cup Classic (GRADE ONE)

    Is City Of Troy worth the hype? Has the Derby winner met a match in the fierece dirt competition America offers. The advantage has is that he is bred by Justify, and ever since a two-year-old, this has been the ultimate goal. He’s negotiated the tight twists of Epsom and has outclassed all before him.

    But, no American dirt experience. And, according to those who regularly view American racing, the kickback is fierce to the face. Plus he’s out of a Galileo mare, which means he’s mainly bred for turf. Juvenile horses grow to resemble their mothers, not their fathers. And one other key factor, regarding the best jockey in the world. Ryan Moore is 0/25 in American dirt races. A worrying factor.

    Does this mean that Fierceness, bought by Coolmore Stud in the recent days, stand a good a chance as any? Yes. Simply because he’s been aimed at the race, and is best suited to these conditions. Without City Of Troy, you’d be forgiven if this horse was odds-on.

    With City Of Troy in his race, it’s a case of see it and believe it. Or rather in this case, personally see it and believe that European horses hold zero advantage when it comes to American specialist races.

     

    One Last Try

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    10:25 – Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Turf (GRADE ONE) – Content @ 7/2 (Boylesports)

    After a blowout on British Champions Day, where she was really unsuited by the slow pace, Content will end her busy campaign at the Breeders’ Cup. Although people do forget that she is a Group One winner. She won the Yorkshire Oaks in fine fashion, but wasn’t suited by the ground at Longchamp on her next start, and broke slowly. Today conditions will be in her favour and there’s more than likely to be a hot pace to latch onto.

     

    Fortuna Plenty

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    11:45 – Breeders’ Cup Mile (GRADE ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 9/4 (General)

    This looks to be a cracker of a race. But can Notable Speech be trusted. He’s failed to show up twice this season, at Ascot and Longchamp and the reports are that he didn’t travel over well. However, with Porta Fortuna, she’s been electric, and consistent. Her last win at Leopardstown was nothing short of impressive, and with American owners, has every right to come here and take the last turf prize for the Brits.

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – Whacker Job

    Four To Follow – Whacker Job

    With the jumps in full swing, we focus today on Wetherby for their highlight card of the year. The Charlie Hall Chase features a roll of honour full of racing legends, and this race has Bravemansgame, Conflated and The Real Whacker all involved. Whilst down at Ascot its big early season handicap action. A proper Saturday of racing awaits us.

     

    Wetherby

    Kat Got The Cream

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    2:22 – West Yorkshire Hurdle (Grade Two) – Kateira @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Dan Skelton is currently on red hot form. Operating at 29%, it seems that most of his horses can’t go wrong. And Kateira looks to be one who can’t go wrong. She produced a taking performance in a premier handicap hurdle at Aintree. She raced in the Listed Mares Hurdle last year, but stepping up to a more manageable distance and with a weight allowance, she had to be taken to win this.

     

    Taking A Whacker

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    2:58 – Charlie Hall Chase (Grade Two) – The Real Whacker @ 10/1 (General)

    Let’s talk about the opposition first. Paul Nicholls are not to be followed at this time of the season, and Bravemansgame has no win in last seven, despite what his trainer tells us. There’s also been no 10+ year old won the race since Grey Abbey in 2004. And the Irish only managed to crack the code for this race last year.

    That leaves me with The Real Whacker. He unseated midway through the Kerry National when going well. Today the ground will be to his liking, and the level of racing will also be up to his standard. The Real Whacker also receives weight from French Dynamite which is a bonus, who won’t be far away from the finish either.

     

    Ascot

    Patience of a Saint

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    2:05 – Byrne Group Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Saint Segal @ 5/1 (General)

    A really nice contest to get the jumps action underway in Berkshire. But I’m opting with last year’s third, Saint Segal. He’s ran well the previous twice visits, including going well when falling here last November. He’s two pounds lower than his run in this contest last year, has a liking for good ground and is second up from a wind op. The signs point for the Saint.

     

    Champion Vintage

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    3:45 – Sodexo Live! Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Chianti Classico @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    Ultima winner Chianti Classico has been aimed at this race as his start off point for a potential tilt at the Grand National this year. He won at Ascot last year on good ground, and has a versatility for any ground after a stellar season. He steps down from a Grade One to handicap company, and despite carrying top weight he has plenty of talent to pull it off.

    Hidden Depths has also had a good Summer, picking up valuable handicap at Perth and beating a decent Skelton horse in Mylesfromwicklow. Good ground will suit and slips into this handicap at the bottom of the weights which should give him a fighting chance. Not to be underestimated at 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Welcome back to the jumps, people! The most chaotic and most enjoyable time of the year. With Cheltenham already underway, it makes sense to focus in on some top class action there. But we don’t forget the last of the flat, with a Group One at Doncaster and two Group Three’s at Newbury. We’re up, down and all about on this Saturday.

     

    Cheltenham

    Headline Act

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    2:20 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Broadway Boy @ 3/1 (General)

    If there’s one thing I noticed on the Friday of the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham, it’s that front runners had a big advantage. Those who raced prominently were always in the finish. Combine those with a good record on good ground and first time out, and you’ll have your winner.

    Broadway Boy has more than those three factors in his favour. Add in three course wins (two over three miles) and a trainer who found two winners on Friday at Cheltenham, and you have your winner. Broadway Boy acts well on the ground and has a decent enough first-time out record, to make him the one to beat.

    Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire will add stiff opposition. He goes second-season chasing this term and finished last year on a high with a win over three miles at Perth. That day was on soft, but he appears to be versatile on all ground, so good won’t be a worry. He’s only off six pounds higher than last time and ends up mid-division on the handicaps. Worth a chance, 9/1 (William Hill).

    Unanswered Prayers has been his namesake for almost two years, with no win in handicap company. But his last win came at Cheltenham in a novice chase on good ground. It seems a little harsh that the handicapper has risen him two pounds for finishing a one-and-a-half length second last time out, but he has an ok first-time out record. Plus, course experience, he has claims at 16/1 (General).

     

    The Moral HY Ground

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    4:05 – William Hill Novices’ Chase – Hyland @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Nicky Henderson’s early season record this, and for previous seasons, Hyland looks laid out for this race. He runs well on good ground and is fresh from a 118-day break. His record fresh is a little inconsistent, but given the right ground he should act on it. He also has a bit of course and distance form after winning at Cheltenham over hurdles in a three-mile contest.

     

    Doncaster

    No More Line Judges

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    2:40 – William Hill Futurity Trophy (GROUP ONE) – Wimbledon Hawkeye @ 5/2 (General)

    With the news that there will be no line judges at the All-England Club in 147 years, and former champion Rafael Nadal retiring, you’d think that Wimbledon Hawkeye had destiny on his side.

    But his last win in a Group Two came at Newmarket came on soft ground when he wound up the Rowley hill in very good fashion. Albeit the form hasn’t been tested, he has won on soft ground which puts him at a major advantage to the others. He’s been a horse to watch this season, and could be well deserved of a Group One.

    Watch out for John & Thady Gosden trained Detain. Despite the pair’s comments that he may avoid this race, owners Juddmonte are confident enough to let him run for the first time on turf in this race. With the ground he’s run on so far, standard-to-slow, and he’s last seven length win, he’s caught eyes and ears, and may well be worth the 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Warning For All

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    3:10 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 11/4 (General)

    Despite Benevento having better form, he’s still two pounds lower in ratings than Yaroogh, who’s had a busy campaign. He clearly loves soft ground, after a May win at Haydock on soft (which has since been backed up), and last time out on heavy at Deauville in a Listed contest. He finally found true form winning by three-and-a-half lengths and can carry on, on heavy ground, today.

    His main danger will be Bob Mali. Bred from Sands Of Mali, he’s currently unbeaten from three runs, including two wins on heavy ground. The form from a conditions race at Salisbury last time out has seen the second place once more, which should be where this son of Passadouro end up. Definite potential at 6/1 (William Hill).

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    Cheltenham October Meeting Day 1 | A Charming Plan

    It almost feels like last week since Rebel Dawn Rising won the 2m4f hunters’ chase at Prestbury Park in May, but the Flat season is in the past now and the Cheltenham October meeting is on our agenda.

    Friday kicks off another campaign at the home of jumps racing, and plenty of the races look very interesting.

    Kalpana helped eat into the loss this column took at Chepstow the week prior, so let’s hope Cheltenham is equally as kind to us.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Matata @ 9/4 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Although his price has come in since we recorded the Only Fools Love Horses preview, the case for Matata remains in the third race of the day.

    His last handicap run came at the course on New Year’s Day when second to Libberty Lane.

    The winner has since finished second in the Grand Annual and third in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase, and Matata made a mistake at the last fence which potentially cost him the race.

    The form of his second in the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase also looks good as Master Chewy, the fourth, was second to Found A Fifty in the Grade 1 Maghull Novices’ Chase two starts later.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies’ six-year-old won on seasonal debut last year on good to soft ground and won on good ground in a novice handicap hurdle, so conditions should suit.

    Off 147, just five pounds higher than his mark when second to Libberty Lane, he has a good chance here.

     

    2:25 Cheltenham – Arclight @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    As much as Matata holds strong claims, the case for Arclight is a makeable one in the conditions.

    Nicky Henderson’s mare won on seasonal reappearance last season, a race that occurred on good ground, and the form of beating Mayhem Mya (improved eight pounds since) and Carole’s Pass (now rated 132) from her Listed Exeter success is strong.

    Her final win two starts ago occurred at Wincanton where he beat Marsh Wren, a subsequent two-time winner and Grade 2 Mares’ Chase third, which again looks like nice form for a horse rated 136.

    Back in handicap company, she is of interest.

     

    3:35 Cheltenham – Planned Paradise @ 14/1 with SkyBet (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    I can’t see why Planned Paradise won’t run a big race in the amateur jockeys’ handicap chase at Cheltenham on Friday.

    Just five starts ago in July, he dotted up at Perth off 107 (running to an RPR of 128) over 2m4f.

    He comes into Cheltenham this weekend off just a five-pound higher mark, and Gina Andrews choosing to ride him is worth noting.

    She rode Strictlyadancer when fourth in this race last year, but he is partnered by Edward Vaughan this year instead.

    Although Planned Paradise’s last win came over 2m4f, he ran into a clearly well-handicapped Get Up Much over 3m1f at Warwick on his last start and has run two good races over 3m5f before.

    The latest occurred at Fakenham in May when second, though he was also a runner-up to Quick Wave in the 2022 London National Handicap Chase off 119.

    He’ll like the ground, he has race fitness on his side, and is on a workable mark.

     

    4:10 Cheltenham – Potters Charm @ 7/4 with Paddy Power – 2pt Win

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    The local track Worcester saw Potters Charm sprint clear on hurdles debut last month, and I thought the performance was impressive.

    Chancycourt, who was already race-fit, is a fine horse for Fergal O’Brien and Nigel Twiston-Davies’ five-year-old won easily.

    He jumped nicely, and although he was rallied along at the end, I thought his turn of foot in the final half a furlong deserved plenty of respect.

    The better ground is a new condition he’ll have to face, but his dam’s half-brother, Earth King, won his three jumps races on good and good to soft.

    Connections have Grade 1 aspirations with him, and I hope he can continue that progression.

     

    4:45 Cheltenham – Jilaijone @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    David Pipe has landed a few nice races recently, notably at Chepstow two weeks ago, and he might have lined-up Jilaijone for the conditional jockeys’ handicap hurdle.

    His mark of 119 is one pound higher than his official rating when second at Chepstow in October 2023, a race that came before his valiant second to Blueking d’Oroux in the Masterson Holdings Hurdle over course and distance.

    The winner has a rating of 150 now having won a Grade 2 subsequently, so the form looks strong and he’ll handle the good ground.

    Gearoid Harney claims a further six pounds off his back as well, so this improving five-year-old looks like an unexposed type here.

  • Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    Five To Follow – Qipco British Champions Day Tips

    It’s the flat’s biggest finale, and what a send off in store! This year sees the very best of the British and European Champions battle each other out one final time. We’ve a mouthwatering battle in the Champion Stakes and competitive action in both the Sprint Stakes and Balmoral Handicap. Let’s get stuck into Five of the best races of the year.

     

    Nothing But Love

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    1:55 – British Champions Sprint Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Unequal Love @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    There’s one interesting trend with this race. No former Group One winners have a good record in the race. In fact, Muhaarar was the last horse to win a sprint Group One and this race. Kinross did win the G1 Prix la Foret over seven before winning this, but not won a Group One six furlong sprint.

    The other factor is repeat winners of the race are very very rare. No horse has done it recently, and due to the competitive nature of the race. It’s unlikely it will happen again.

    It’s soft ground overall and Unequal Love looks like the best candidate to take this race out. She has soft ground form when breaking her maiden over a soft six furlongs at Ripon. She also finished a close fourth on soft ground at the end of last season, before winning on April good ground this year. After winning the Wokingham at the Royal meeting in June, she holds every chance.

    Each-way plays are useful in this race, with James’s Delight the perfect example. A fantastically progressive horse, who loves a bog. He won on heavy ground at Pontefract by six-and-a-half lengths. Ryan Moore gets the leg up, having won on him in the Macmillan Sprint at York back in June. Definite value at 14/1 (William Hill).

    Elite Status didn’t hit the heights in the Haydock Sprint Cup, but wrong tactics let him down that day when he led the field. He does like to be prominent but wants to sit behind the pace. He won twice at the start of the season and has soft ground form from his two-year-old season. Definite top-three chance. 14/1 (General).

     

    Back To Happiness

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    2:35 – British Champions Fillies & Mares Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    After her no show in the Prix Royallieu, Content is back up to her perfect distance of a mile-and-a-half. She’s versatile with her ground too, after winning on soft ground as a two-year-old. With weight being given to her, she’s the top rated horse in the race and experienced at Group One level. Draw nine on the round course might not suit her, but Ryan Moore can produce rabbits out of his hat at will.

    I quite like the chances of some of the European runners today, particularly Quantanemera. She beat Arrest on very soft (soft) ground at Deauville over 12 furlongs, which stands her in good stead. On her form, it looks like the softer the better for her and against the girls, she can be dangerous. Interesting at 15/2 (General).

     

    Fan-a French Fillies

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    3:15 – Queen Elizabeth II Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Tamfana @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    Tamfana was due her Group One a couple of weeks ago at Newmarket, and she won it against experienced opposition on soft ground. Dominant can’t explain her performance any better. Now up against the boys too, I think she’s got a massive chance. Particularly with three-year-olds 8/10 in the last ten renewals. One of the top rated, and a trainer in form, it’s worth taking on the favourite.

    Another one to note is Prague. He won in spectacular fashion at the Cambridgeshire meeting in the Joel Stakes, against two mud lovers. He finally found his conditions last time out and will have them here again. After making a big step up to Group Two level last time, will he handle the bigger step up to the top level. He’s got ground and form on his side, so is worth having. 12/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet).

     

    Calan The Dragon

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    3:55 – Champion Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Calandagan @ 13/8 (William Hill, BetVictor, Unibet)

    After an incredible season, are there any holes to poke at Economics. Yes. Is one and only two-year-old run came on heavy ground, which resulted in him finishing fourth. And he hasn’t run on any surface similar to that this season.

    Calandagan on the other hand has been ultra consistent. Firstly, he won by six lengths at Ascot which is a big plus. Secondly, he was best of the rest in the International Stakes, closing the gap on City Of Troy to a length, and finished three lengths in front of Ghostwriter. He’s won on softer ground in France over 10 furlongs, which is another big positive. He’s drawn to the inside of the course which is another positive. He can become a worthy champion, and follow in Sealiway’s footsteps on British Champions Day.

    Royal Rhyme presents fantastic each-way value. If you look a little more closely at his inconsistent form, bar the International Stakes, he has always finished close to the finish. He was only three lengths away in a bunch finish in the Irish Champion Stakes and the best part of two lengths last in a tight York Stakes. His only win this season came over ten furlongs at Sandown on soft ground, and he’s been waiting for these conditions all season. Far too big at 50/1 (General).

     

    One For The North

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    4:35 – Balmoral Handicap – Lattam @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    One more trip down the Royal Mile this season and prepare for a slog. Which will suit Lattam down to the ground. Formerly with William Haggas, he won the Irish Lincolnshire on soft to heavy ground. He finished second in this year’s Lincoln at Doncaster, and best form comes on soft ground. He’s drawn on the, traditional, bias on the far side. He’s back to a mark of 95, the same as his second in the Lincoln. Expect him to go near.

    Bopedro is never far away in these handicaps. A slightly up and down season has seen him finish second and third, latterly in the Ascot Challenge Cup. He was rated 102 on British Champions Day last year, and is down to a six pound lower mark. Best performances for him come with soft in the title, so expect him to run a race true to form. 12/1 (BetVictor).

    And one more for the in form David Menuisier, Toimy Son. He comes into the race, two pounds well in after finishing third in the Cambridgeshire. He seems to have ground versatility, but the majority of Menuisier’s love the soft conditions. Drawn to the far side, he’s got a slight advantage on the soft underfoot. 14/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part Two

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend and the Cesarewitch. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    It’s Not Winter Yet

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    3:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (GROUP ONE) – The Lion In Winter @ 10/11 (General)

    I was incredibly taken when seeing him last time out in the Acomb Stakes at York. It’s never really known as a trial race, but sometimes it is used before races like the Champagne Stakes or the National in Ireland. The Lion In Winter has been given a good break since then, and the form has worked out perfectly. Steady on with backing him for the 2000 Guineas yet, but I feel he has this race in the bag.

     

    And Are We?

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    3:40 – Ceasrewitch Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Ndaawi @ 12/1 (General)

    An incredibly competitive handicap, but my main pick has been let off lightly. Ndaawi ran an impressive second to Nurburgring in the Galway hurdle, but is down a pound for running seventh in the Ascot Stakes on ground he didn’t like. With ground like this in the Autumn, he can make the light weight on his back work. Jumps trainers are getting an ever increasing affection for this race, like Willie and Emmet Mullins, etc.

    Talking of the latter, Jacovec Cavern represents one of the fancier being backed for the race. He finished close up to Busselton at the Galway Festival, which is often a great pointer to the latter Autumn marathons. He’s only been risen three pounds for his close run back in July and as a result is right down the weights. Hayley Turner can deliver on a big day and make it back-t-back wins in the race for E. Mullins at 13/2 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred).

    One who is surprisingly well-in on the handicap is Premiere Ligne. He’s been incredibly consistent all season, with one win and five places to his name, four of them seconds. He hasn’t been beaten by more than two lengths in his previous six runs and comes from the Cesarewitch Trial. An even bigger plus is the five pounds been taken off by an in-form claimer. Great each-way price at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    Strike It Hot

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    2:40 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Strike Red @ 13/2 (Betfred)

    A surprisingly disappointing season for Strike Red. He has only finished in the places once, but hasn’t had anything to show for last season’s performance. However, he loves York. One win and one place in four runs at the track shows that he isn’t bad. He also performs late on in his season, with four of his career wins coming in either September or October. He’ll love the soft ground and should finally get his elusive win. He also won this race in 2022 off a pound lower mark.

    The Bell Conductor may have most of his wins over five furlongs, but shaped well when winning over six at Chester last time out. He has a clear preference for soft ground and has progressed well enough to this level. He’s only been raised two pounds for the run and has a nice draw towards the stand side, which usually is a slight bias on soft ground. Well worth 25/1 (General).

    Hyperfocus is also one not to discount. It was a similar story last year when he finished second, despite the long odds, and history might repeat itself. Plus the softer it is for him, the better. He has won twice this season, albeit at class four level, but it shows that the 10 year-old has some fight in him left, and fought for second off a three pound higher mark last year. I’m not abandoning him at 33/1 (General).

     

    Chepstow

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    Beach Baby

    2:45 – Tom Malone Bloodstock Novices’ Chase (Listed) – Springwell Bay @ 7/2 (General)

    It seemed the natural progression for Springwell Bay to go over the bigger obstacles after a great season. The former staying hurdler drops back in trip, but should progress further in time. Another benefit is having Jonjo (& AJ) O’Neill as the trainer, with Jonjo, in the last five seasons, one of the more prolific trainers in Monmouthshire. Good pedigree for fences, he should be perfect first time out in the Autumn.

     

    Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    Four To Follow – An Autumn Celebration – Part One

    It’s the busiest Saturday in the Autumn as we have three massive meetings to cover. At Newmarket it’s the future champions’ weekend. One tip from York, where we have their finale meeting. And then head west to Wales to find the jumps season opener. Tips from all three meetings on a busy weekend.

     

    Newmarket

    A Magical Dance

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    3:35 – Fillies’ Mile (GROUP ONE) – Ballet Slippers @ 14/1 (General)

    Writing this, I am still racking my brains over why Ryan Moore has ditched Ballet Slippers in favour of January. Ballet Slippers has soft ground form, which could be useful at this time of year. She’s bred magnificently out of the champion Magical and by super sire Dubawi, and her pedigree is top notch. And the form from her Ascot maiden has been franked when the second went and won last week at Haydock. She has the perfect blueprint to win this race and is an unbelievable price.

     

    York

    Who Are Ya?

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    2:40 – William Hill Finale Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Who’s Glen @ 13/2 (General)

    This small field looks a bit competitive, and I think I’ve spotted some value. Who’s Glen ran a very long way clear of a similar distance at Chester last time out, and won by 14 lengths. The handicapper has given him a fair weight to carry. He’s also trained by York’s current top trainer, Andrew Balding, who is currently +30 to £1 this season. An incredible record and has the beating of the top two in the market.

     

    Chepstow

    Blast Off

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    3:15 – Unibet Persian War Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Ryan’s Rocket @ 2/1 (General)

    At long last, the jumps are finally back! With a tricky little contest to get us underway. With no Paul Nicholls featuring, the winner could come from anywhere. But I think Ryan’s Rocket has every right to be favourite. He’s got plenty of form in the book, particularly from his maiden win at Taunton. He’s a half-brother to former Fergal O’Brien hurdler Greenlagh Girl, who is now a stayer of point-to-points. The only way is up for this exciting gelding.

     

    The Best Boy

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    3:50 – Unibet Veterans’ H’cap Chase – Good Boy Bobby @ 100/30 (William Hill)

    We love the old boys do their thing in these veterans’ chases. And one horse looks primed for this opening bout. Good Boy Bobby won this race off a pound lower mark last year, so is well-handicapped. His record fresh is seven from 12, and his record in October is four from six. To make that even more impressive, he’s unbeaten at the track in his three starts. Not just a good boy, but a good bet.

    Another Chepstow lover is Wayfinder. In 2022, he completed a hattrick at the track, and has since not been able to replicate that form. But he still boasts a four wins from nine starts record, which also includes two seconds. He has a decent record fresh and acts well early on in the season. Still a bit of value at 13/2 (William Hill).

     

    Best of Luck!