Best Of Bets

Tag: Betfred Oaks

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Dance Sequence Can Step To Oaks glory

    Epsom Derby Festival | Dance Sequence Can Step To Oaks glory

    As Friday signals the start of Epsom Derby Weekend, with a decimated field in the Coronation Cup, The Oaks can spring a surprise in the shape of Dance Sequence.

    The third of five unofficial classics this term, this race last year was won by Frankie Dettori and Soul Sister, not seen since last July’s Prix de Paris.

    Nevertheless, the previous year’s victors have set up a run for Royal Ascot, likely in the Ribblesdale Stakes.

    And, in the case of Godolphin, 29 years on from their last Oaks victory, Charlie Appleby and Will Buick could finally be on to a good thing.

     

    False dawn?

    Coming into the new flat season, Dance Sequence looked poised for a fruitful campaign.

    However, after falling short in the Nell Gwyn last month, something of a no-show followed at Newmarket in the 1000 Guineas.

    His admirers have since fallen by the wayside, but the Oaks presents the perfect opportunity to show her undoubted pedigree.

     

    Stealing in

    The daughter of former Irish 2000 Guineas winner, Dubawi, much is still expected of Dance Sequence.

    This weekend, she will likely go off at around the 18/1 mark with Betfred, but that will do little to discourage the Newmarket stable.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Indeed, as we have already seen this term, Notable Speech nipped in to win the 2000 Guineas at a lofty 14/1 for the famous blue silks.

     

    Taking down AP

    Dance Sequence’s biggest competition looks to be the ominous presence of Ylang Ylang.

    As Aidan O’Brien looks for a 11th Oaks title, the King of Ballydoyle has won this race seven times since 2012.

    Like Dance Sequence, the filly has her own questions to answer after finishing fifth behind the revelation that was Elmalka.

    And like Godolphin’s hope here, comes from rich racing blood in the shape of Frankel.

    Yes the posers are there for Ylang Ylang, but with the softer ground, the filly looks better set to impress.

    The going for the 1000 Guineas was good and her last two wins have been on soft turf.

    And boy, did this girl finish strong last October in the Fillies’ Mile.

     

    Outsiders

    Dance Sequence is currently one of the bigger outsiders for the Oaks, but two other runners at similar prices have decent chances.

    Not least Secret Satire, who proved a liking for faster ground as a sensational 22/1 winner of the Musidora at the Dante Festival.

    She could have issues with the turf on Friday, but then again posers were answered emphatically last time out.

    Embed from Getty Images

    Secret Satire is on the table at 11/1 with Unibet.

    Meanwhile, Trainer Ralph Beckett will quietly like the chances of his own Forest Fairy, who is unbeaten in two races.

    One of the few runners who have gone the trip – albeit on the AW – can she double up after the Cheshire Oaks earlier this month at 15/2 with 888sport?

     

    The 2024 Betfred Oaks takes place on Friday 31 May, race time 4:30pm.

  • Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    Four To Follow Lion On The Run Epsom Oaks Special

    It’s the biggest two days of the flat season as the racing public descend on the Surrey Downs of Epsom. Day One sees two group ones, including the Betfred Oaks which could end up being the form race for the year. Here’s four of the Best Bets from Friday’s meeting.

    2:35 – Racehorse Lotto Handicap – Fantastic Fox @ 6/1

    Embed from Getty Images

    Everything looks in his favour today. He should have his ground, he’s stepping down in trip back to his favoured mile, and he has a great jockey aboard to overcome a wide draw. His mark is five pounds lower than it was when he came third in last year’s race, and it’s a pound lower than his previous winning mark too. The only slight negative is that he is a Roger Varian horse, but the tide does look to be turning after he had a decent showing at Brighton on Tuesday. Fantastic Fox hasn’t won since he was a three-year-old, but he is due one, and this looks like the perfect race to break his duck.

    Austrian Theory is a good each-way price at 17/2, after his third at Chester last week. Charlie Johnston has a runner in the Derby and this could kick start a good week on the Downs for the Middleham trainer. Austrian Theory has had three runs already, but is stepping up to his best, after a good third at Chester, which could be a good prep for Epsom to handle the twists and turns. He’s on a good mark and the ground should be near perfect for him to challenge the top three.

    3:10 – DahlBury Coronation Cup (Group One) – Emily Upjohn @ 5/2

    Embed from Getty Images

    Emily Upjohn, should, be favourite. Both Westover and she handled Epsom really well, but Emily Upjohn was the one to take out of last year’s Oaks. She didn’t follow up in the King George at Ascot, but finished on a high last term. With a slight allowance it puts her on terms with Westover and Frankie is going to be fired up at his last Derby meeting. It’s a small field so an inside draw won’t matter too much, and she’s backable at the price she is.

    Little word on the outsider Tunnes, the German raider. His rating puts him on terms with Hurricane Lane, who has had a sketchy start to the season. Reading his form, he is a Group One German winner by 10 lengths. The ground may be a little firm, but surely his hat has to be thrown into the mix. Remember what happened with Torquator Tasso in the 2021 Arc?

    3:45 – Betfred Handicap – Marhba The Champ @ 9/2

    Embed from Getty Images

    William Buick takes the ride on the Kevin Ryan colt, and passes up the ride on Godolphin’s Honiton. He managed to fend off Marie’s Diamond at York, and has only been raised a lenient 2lbs. He holds a decent draw, and Ryan has put a tongue strap on him for the first timeHis performance at York was one of the best handicap performances of the week, and he can replicate it here too.

    Masekela has been thrown into this handicap, and seems to have been looked over. Fourth in last year’s Derby, handled the track well and his handicap rating has dropped below 100 for the first time. The ground will be in his favour and it’s a pairing we have seen before, Oisin Murphy and Andrew Balding. He will have to overcome a slight disadvantage with the draw, but it shouldn’t be too much of a problem. An each-way price of 11/1 isn’t bad either.

    4:30 – BETFRED OAKS (GROUP ONE) – RUNNING LION @ 11/2

    Embed from Getty Images

    Let’s start with the top two in the market. Savethelastdance was ultra-impressive at Chester, but what did she beat? None of the horses were bothered in catching her and she cantered to win by 22 lengths, in bottomless ground. It was the same ground for her maiden win at Leopardstown. She also lacks the experience for me. I don’t think three runs in a horses’ lifetime can prepare you enough for the challenge of Epsom.

    Soul Sister also falls into that category of lack of experience, although her win at York was better than Savethelastdances’ at Chester. She beat an experienced filly in Novakai and ran on well after the finish line. It’s also a question of how quickly can the horse be turned around, as York was only two weeks’ ago. The other thing is the breeding. She’s by Frankel, who as a sire, has only managed won Epsom Oaks winner out of the vast progeny he has had.

    This led me to Running Lion. Roaring Lion has a select but quality progeny, and has had a successful May in terms of winners. Running Lion won really well at Newmarket when we last saw her, but there is a question of stepping up in trip. But her pedigree shows that she is related to Cozone, who stayed two miles, and was out of Bella Nouf, which is Running Lion’s sire. This tells me there is staying power within the family, and she can prove it today. She has plenty of experience under her belt, and hasn’t been over-raced either. This has feels like a target for her and she can triumph over her stablemate, and the short-priced favourite.

    The very best of luck on Oaks Day!

    All prices are from Betfred, official sponsor of the Epsom Oaks and Derby

  • 2023 Betfred Derby Festival: 14/1 Epsom punt fancied by ITV pundits

    2023 Betfred Derby Festival: 14/1 Epsom punt fancied by ITV pundits

    As June blazes in, summer classic season hits top gear with this weekend’s Betfred Derby Festival at Epsom.

    In a month which concludes with Royal Ascot, first, the 1m4f trip on the Downs takes top billing.

    With 15 races sandwiched into the card, we’ve picked three to feature at varying prices.

     

    Friday 16:30 Betfred Oaks, Soul Sister – 11/4

    Beginning with Friday’s Oaks, Running Lion‘s form is impressive but without a drop of rain, Soul Sister is the filly for us.

    As Frankie Dettori galloped away to win the Musidora at York last month, the 14/1 SP of John and Thady Gosden’s promising lady was left in tatters.

    Romping away on turf that had at last firmed up, too much was placed on her form from Newbury.

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    Instead, a debut winner at Doncaster last October, the youngster proved she can handle the soft ground, but will much prefer the going good.

    Everything points to said Epsom going being Good to Firm this weekend and Soul Sister has the groove at 11/4 with William Hill.

     

    Saturday 13:30: Betfred Epsom Derby, White Birch – 14/1

    Turning to the Festival’s main event, whilst Auguste Rodin, Military Order and Passenger are jousting to be Derby favourite, White Birch is very much still our long-price fancy.

    And we have sound company in our pick.

    Indeed, ITV Racing duo Francesca Cumani and Leonna Mayor have been vocal in their support in JJ Murphy‘s pretender to the Derby crown.

    In his last outing, the colt was a storming runner-up to The Foxes in The Dante and with a few extra furlongs could have taken the win.

    A double winner on Irish turf his two races prior, he will be keen again to put a show on British soil.

    The son of Ulysses – a Juddmonte winner himself in 2016 – White Birch has the pedigree to perform on the big stage.

    At a still very tasty 14/1 with BoyleSports, the grey looks excellent value.

     

    Saturday 14:10: Princess Elizabeth Stakes, Astral Beau – 8/1

    Finally, we move to the following race on the card, the Princess Elizabeth Stakes with a good e/w consideration for Astral Beau.

    Now targeting races just over the 1m mark, the 4yo travelled well to place third in the Howden last time out.

    Of more significance perhaps, the mount of Shane Foley was a winner over the slightly shorter distance in the Doncaster Mile earlier this spring.

    Embed from Getty Images

     

    Still preferring 7f, Astral Beau has nevertheless won four of her last six  – placing in all outings.

    We just get the feeling trainer Pam Sly could be on to a good thing here.

    The four-length winning margin in Yorkshire proved there could be a stayer in this horse yet, at 8/1 with 888Sport.

  • Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    The endless weeks of build-up have drawn to a close as it is the week of the Epsom Derby.

    The two-day event around the undulations of the Surrey-based track is just a few days away and we at Bestofbets.com can’t wait.

    Embed from Getty Images

    For me, the last few weeks of the Ante-post Analysis series have seen some good success; THE FOXES winning the Dante and CAIRO placing in the Irish 2000 Guineas are the main highlights.

    And as for last week’s The Top Three column, well, we will be discussing that on Friday.

    I won’t get too ahead of myself as you have to take the peaks and troughs with a good degree of level-headedness in this game, so I’m sure I’ll come crashing back down to Earth sooner than I would like.

    Hopefully, it is not this week as I have a few early fancies for the Epsom Derby weekend.

     

    Keen on the Queen

    Embed from Getty Images

    The Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday looks to be a cracking contest at the time of writing with 10 entered for the £100,000 race.

    Although another one of my cliff horses, Prosperous Voyage, is at the head of the market, my head has been turned by a different four-year-old filly.

    QUEEN AMINATU shaped like a filly going placed last time out on the all-weather as she stayed on behind an on-song Sacred over seven furlongs at Lingfield.

    That form, in my eyes, is worth a good deal in a race like this as she was three-wide around the bend having finished third to Sandrine, a Group 2 winner, and Sacred, a horse who has all the attributes of a Group 1 filly when she is 100%.

    Furthermore, on her only start at a mile, she blitzed her competition at Lingfield, a race that included Oscula, a three-time Group 3 winner.

    Although most of her form is on the all-weather, her second on good ground over a mile at Haydock last season gives me hope that she will handle conditions on Saturday.

    If she can continue her progression, it will take a good one to beat her and the 8/1 available with BetVictor is a good price.

     

    One better than Silver

    Embed from Getty Images

    It’s almost like I’m living in a world of deja-vu as my next fancy was put up here two weeks ago before being declared a non-runner.

    Alas, having heard that this has always been the target, I’m willing to go back in on SILVER SWORD at 12/1.

    His case is obvious on one piece of form alone as his fifth to Military Order three starts ago reads extremely well, something that could see another boost if Godolphin’s Derby hope obliges earlier on the card.

    Following that run, a good second to Empress Wu and a facile victory at Southwell has only bolstered his claims.

    Now returning to 1m2f, something that should suit on pedigree as his dam (Aurora Grey) won three times over two miles, he could make light work of his official rating of 82.

    It is a competitive field and he does need one horse to come out to run, but hopefully that occurs and he can light up the Downs.

     

    Bring down the House

    Embed from Getty Images

    And finally, in a showering of repetition, my final ante-post play of Derby Weekend is a horse whom I put up at York two weeks ago.

    He finished fifth on seasonal reappearance at the Dante meeting, something I hope puts him spot on for the Dash on Saturday.

    That’s right, I’m sticking with CLARENDON HOUSE at 7/1 with William Hill.

    Despite running a career-best according to RPRs, the five-year-old was dropped two pounds by the handicapper for his last run.

    For a horse who travelled like the winner for three furlongs, received three reminders from Daniel Muscutt, and just emptied on his first start for 240 days, the run at York was very pleasing.

    On pure numbers, his second at Beverley two starts ago when eight pounds wrong at the weights with Acklam Express (3rd) was great and the second to Raasel last season, a horse who would go on to improve 15 pounds, when giving five pounds away shines brightly.

    Now rated 100, just one pound higher than his last winning mark, the test of Epsom should suit, and he is my fancy for the Dash on Epsom Derby weekend.