From one National to another as the Scottish Grand National headlines the action on our TV screens this weekend.
It truly is one of those big weekends if you’re a fan of sport. Ayr and Newbury host good cards, Rory McIlroy is throwing the Masters away at Augusta, and the Premier League has some nice little contests.
Anyway, let’s roll onto the weekend picks.
Scottish Grand National Day Selections
1:43 Ayr – Masaccio @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Two bets from Ayr today were eye-catchers at Cheltenham, and the first is Masaccio after his run in the Plate Handicap Chase.
He looked outpaced for a while during the Plate, but he showed a brilliant attitude to continue going under Tom Cannon, and his third-place effort can be upgraded as a result.
Connections tried three miles with him for the Grade 1 Kauto Star Novices’ Chase, but it’s harsh to write him off at this trip based on just one run. Alan King has always mentioned trying three miles with him, in fairness.
So, if you’re willing to forgive him for his run in the Kauto Star three starts ago, he looks like the classy edge into this race based on his form with The Jukebox Man earlier in the season and Jingko Blue over hurdles (when giving 6lbs away).
Masaccio, Pic Roc, Eyed, Ideal Des Bordes, and Theformismighty look like the horses who will handle the nicer ground the best, and the McNeill Family & Niall Farrell-owned eight-year-old is my preference.
2:15 Ayr – Ethical Diamond @ 10/3 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Ethical Diamond clocked some good numbers when fourth in the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival, and with just an extra pound to carry, he can win the Scottish Champion Hurdle.
His run from the second-last to the line was as quick as what the Triumph Hurdle leaders did, and he was carrying 3lbs more than the likes of Poniros, Lulamba, East India Dock, and Lady Vega Allen.
He’s still unexposed in handicap hurdles as one of his runs occurred in the County Hurdle, and the other was his seasonal reappearance at Leopardstown in December.
He looks like the type of horse to improve into a Graded hurdler in time, and he’s shown he can run well on nice ground at both the Cheltenham Festival and Royal Ascot.
The Scottish Champion Hurdle is a competitive race, but he’s one I’m keen to keep on side.
2.55 Ayr – Fox’s Fancy @ 13/2 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
When looking at the 3m mares’ handicap hurdle, Ruby Island is well-fancied for Nicky Richards, but if she is a 5/1 shot in the market, Fox’s Fancy has to be considered at a bigger price.
Just a neck separated the pair at Ayr in early March, but the winner was race-fit and the second, Fox’s Fancy, was having her first run since October 2024.
She gets to try three miles for the second time, the first came at Wetherby in October when she ran a creditable race in fourth. The winner, Billy Boi Blue, won a Class 3 handicap at Ayr yesterday.
The Lucinda Russell-trained seven-year-old has a touch of back class in the book, as she finished a good fifth in a good ground Kelso bumper two years ago to Kamsinas.
She also finished second to Galunggung in a Hexham novice hurdler who has improved to a mark of 128 over fences.
She should appreciate nicer ground, and this three-mile test leaves her unexposed.
3:12 Newbury – Cogitate @ 10/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 0.5pt EW
Me and Cogitate have a love-hate relationship, and by that, I mean that I’ve backed him three times without return.
Still, he lines up in the Spring Cup and there’s reason to suggest he can put in a career-best effort.
His only win came on debut in July 2023 over seven furlongs at this course where he beat Boiling Point (now rated 107). He also had King’s Gambit (rated 114) behind him as well.
The next time he raced ‘fresh’, he chased home Night Raider (rated 111) at Southwell over seven furlongs, so he does seem to go well off a bit of a break.
Even his last run at Kempton showed promise when finishing fourth to the subsequent Listed-placed Roi De France and Popmaster.
With a few months of rest and some nice form in the book, he has the profile of one who can land the spoils.
3:35 Ayr – Sail Away @ 16/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW
When I previewed the Scottish Grand National for the Only Fools Love Horses YouTube channel on Tuesday, Sail Away was the wrong price at 50/1, so I’m not totally surprised to see him shorten.
Did I think he’d touch 12/1 in places? Not really.
In fairness, he was entered for Ayr on Friday at an ante-post stage, so once he was taken out of that race, he was susceptible to shortening at the big prices.
He appeals for a number of reasons, one of which being his record at the course on better ground.
He dotted up at this meeting two years ago in the novices’ champion handicap chase off 136 when making all under Bridget Andrews, and he arrives here off a four-pound lower mark having finished a close second at Warwick at the end of last month.
That win at Ayr in April 2023 saw him beat Forward Plan (improved 13lbs since), and it’s hard to ignore his fourth of four (beaten 10 lengths) in the 2024 Grade 1 Ascot Chase over 2m5f to Pic d’Orhy, Ahoy Senor, and L’Homme Presse.
There are other bits of form, like his run at Newbury in November 2024 behind Masaccio before falling, that give him a good chance here.
He likes good ground, he gallops, he jumps, and he’s one from one at the course. He can play his part for Dan and Harry Skelton.
