Premier League Golden Boot 2023/24 Betting Guide

As the new Premier League season gets under way, the Golden Boot market attracts heavy interest from punters and fans alike. This guide expands on our initial preview to offer deeper insight into favourites, outsiders and how to approach markets responsibly.

In-depth analysis of main Golden Boot contenders

Below we reproduce our original season preview in full, then follow with further analysis, statistical context and practical betting guidance. Please note the original text is unchanged and appears verbatim.

Original Golden Boot preview as published earlier

With the first game of the new Premier League season upon us Friday night, we’ve been taking a look at the markets for the Golden Boot.

*All prices with SkyBet

The current favourite for the award by some distance is of course Manchester City’s stellar summer recruit in Erling Braut Haaland. Joining the defending league champions for £51.1 million back in June, the striker who netted 86 goals in 89 games for Borussia Dortmund follows in the footsteps of father Alfie Inge Haaland – a big sway in the Norwegian’s decision where next to ply his trade. Currently 11/4 to finish top scorer come May, Haaland is fancied by many to run away with the prize.

There are, however, slight concerns over Haaland’s ability to meet his huge expectations, not least after a worryingly poor display in the Community Shield last Saturday against Liverpool. Might Mohamed Salah, therefore, again be the easier and more reliable pick?

Having scored at least 19+ league goals in each season since his arrival from AS Roma in 2017, the Egyptian netted his second-highest tally last term en route to sharing the award – that after his form toward the end of the season rather nose-dived as speculation over a new deal lingered. Back focused and having scored at the King Power Stadium against the Citizens with Reds’ front line looking potent as ever, Salah’s 9/2 price looks decent to say the least.

Another big summer signing, Gabriel Jesus’s switch to Arsenal has caught the eye, as has his scintillating pre-season form with seven goals in six games including a hat-trick on his Emirates Stadium debut versus Sevilla last weekend. Still only 25-year-old, the Brazilian’s highest total was with 14 Premier League goals during the 2019/20 campaign but already looks primed to beat that this year. Could Jesus be a canny outside pick to blast Arsenal back into the Champions League and win his own honours? An 11/1 shot, Jesus looks a potential dark horse.

Tottenham Hotspur could supply another dual threat for top-scorer, perhaps driven by Heung min-son. Sharing the laces of the Golden Boot last season with Salah, it was only a last day brace from the Liverpool talisman that denied the Korean forward and Son will be central to Antonio Conte’s play this season. No doubt set to be a Fantasy Premier League must-have, Son is priced slightly longer at 14s.

His tag-team partner Harry Kane will again be a menace to the goalscoring charts at 11/2, but is his position as third favourite a little amiss? There is no doubt the England striker will again be threatening the upper echelons with a record of netting at least 21 goals in five of eight full seasons for the Lilywhites, however, after only reaching his joint-fewest amount last season with 17 goal, with the arrival of Richarlison to accompany in attack, are Kane’s powers beginning to diminish?

From a Manchester United perspective, Cristiano Ronaldo almost single-handedly kept the Red Devil’s goal tally ticking over in the final month of last season and can be grabbed at 20/1, but the Portuguese is evidently unsettled as he seeks a moves to Iberia and may not be the wisest long-shot punt. Instead, could Anthony Martial finally prove his significant talents as he settles into a number nine role under Erik Ten Hag? Showing glimpses of pre-season form that brought the Frenchman to Old Trafford back in 2015, Martial hit 17 goals three seasons ago and is capable of going on a run this term. Could he threaten the very top though? Ten Hag will have United on the front foot and at very lofty 40/1 price is worth some consideration.

Elsewhere, Raheem Sterling will be the big hope for Chelsea as another big name to depart the Etihad Stadium and looks set to lead the line at 28/1. Liverpool will have more than one name eyeing the scoring charts in the form of Benfica arrival Darwin Nunez at 11/1, however, given the Uruguayan maybe needing time to bed in, is Luis Diaz the alternative to Salah to ponder? Hitting the ground running in the second half of last term, a 33/1 gamble could yet be a savvy one.

Finally, returning to Man City, Julian Alvarez’s switch to Eastlands has rather gone a little unheralded given Haaland’s status but tipped as the new Kun Aguero, the Argentinian international grew a fearsome reputation at River Plate and having scored off the bench in the season curtain-raiser (after Haaland rather fluffed his lines) what price on Alvarez to overshadow his teammate? 33/1 to be exact.

Why Erling Haaland is favourite for Golden Boot

Haaland’s output in Germany and his role at City make him a natural market leader, given City’s high expected goals (xG) and possession-dominant style. His physicality and finishing record suit the Premier League but form and fitness remain variables across a long campaign.

Man City options beyond Haaland for top scorer

Julian Álvarez offers a different profile and could benefit from substitute minutes and rotation. Monitoring how City deploys both forwards will be key before committing significant stakes.

Mohamed Salah’s consistency and value to consider

Salah combines proven Premier League scoring consistency with Liverpool’s set-up that continues to create chances for their main forward. Odds such as 9/2 reflect that track record but also factor in rotation risks in a congested calendar.

Gabriel Jesus and Arsenal’s attacking prospects

Jesus is adapting to a system built around high pressing and fluid movement, increasing his goal opportunities. Arsenal’s improvement last season gives Jesus a platform to push toward personal bests, making him an attractive outside option at bigger prices.

Tottenham pairing and other dark horse candidates

Son and Kane present two different routes to goals: Son with pace and overloads, Kane with presence and late runs into the box. Either player can challenge if Spurs find consistent attacking rhythm under their manager.

Manchester United and potential long shot picks

United’s front unit is unsettled but tends to create ample chances; Martial is an appealing speculative pick if he secures a true number nine role. Ronaldo’s transfer speculation reduces his reliability as a season-long market bet.

How to approach Golden Boot betting responsibly

Treat seasonal markets as speculative and set a budget before placing any bets, remembering there are no certainties in sport. If you choose to bet, make use of bookmaker comparison tools and stake-only what you can afford to lose — 18+.

Market movement and staking strategies to weigh up

Price volatility early in the season can offer value through selective bets on form players or tactical beneficiaries. Consider smaller multiple bets or target markets such as “anytime scorer” for selected fixtures rather than large season-long stakes.

When backing season-long outcomes, a split staking approach reduces risk; stake a core amount on the favourite and smaller speculative stakes on high-value outsiders. Always track injuries, rotation and fixture congestion which materially affect player availability and output.

Key statistical indicators to monitor across the season

Follow metrics such as expected goals (xG), shots in the box, big chances and minutes per 90 to identify sustained scoring opportunities. Individual finishing rates can regress quickly; a player with a high conversion rate likely faces correction across a 38-game season.

Practical tips for reading bookmaker markets

Compare odds across bookmakers to find the best available price and consider taking advantage of free bet offers responsibly where they improve value. Be aware that early-season market moves often reflect narratives rather than long-term probability, so avoid overreacting to single-game performances.

Responsible gambling: this content is intended for information only and is not betting advice. Betting is for adults aged 18 and over; please gamble responsibly.

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Frequently asked questions on Golden Boot betting

What should I consider before placing Golden Boot bets?

Check minutes played, club tactics, injuries and fixture congestion as these affect goal opportunities. 18+; gamble responsibly and only stake what you can afford to lose.

When is the best time to back a player for the Golden Boot?

Early season prices can offer value but are also volatile; mid-season offers clearer form data to base decisions on. 18+; this is informational and not a promise of returns.

Are any market types safer than season-long bets?

Short-term markets like “anytime scorer” or player-to-score in specific matches limit exposure compared with season-long futures. 18+; bet within a pre-set budget and avoid chasing losses.

How should I split stakes across favourites and outsiders?

Consider a core stake on a short-priced favourite and smaller speculative stakes on higher-value outsiders to balance potential returns and risk. 18+; treat betting as entertainment, not income.

Do injuries and rotation make Golden Boot bets unreliable?

Yes — injuries and squad rotation can significantly alter a player’s seasonal output and should factor into any staking decision. 18+; always check team news before wagering.

Can I use free bets to improve value on Golden Boot markets?

Free bets can enhance value if used sensibly, especially on longer-priced players, but read terms and apply sensible stake limits. 18+; only use promotions as part of a responsible betting plan.

Where can I compare bookmaker odds and offers safely?

Use reputable comparison tools to find the best odds and current offers, and prefer licensed UK operators who promote safe gambling. 18+; explore comparisons responsibly and avoid high-risk stakes.