Article number two of the Cheltenham Festival Ante-post Tips series is here and it comes alongside my fancies for day one at the Dublin Racing Festival.
We finished January with an eye-catching run thanks to successes with Gowel Road and Petit Tonnerre, but we still ran at a loss for the month. For the benefit of clarity, that was the first losing month in eight, which isn’t too bad.
Let’s hope February can provide some positive news to write about, so let’s dive in.
Cheltenham Festival Ante-post Tips
The Big Westerner @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW
Week two of the Cheltenham Ante-post tips is sticking with the novice hurdles having put up Potters Charm for the Turners Novices’ Hurdle last week.
Look, a quick line on him, we’re on at the wrong price. I tried to make a play by getting him on side at 7/1 in the hope that he would be 4/1 by Saturday evening, but that didn’t go to plan.
We took a chance and that didn’t go to plan, unfortunately.
This play is on a horse who is going straight to the Cheltenham Festival as I fancy The Big Westerner to win the Albert Bartlett.
It looks like The Yellow Clay is heading straight to the race, and Final Demand is set to run in the Nathaniel Lacy this weekend. The way I see Final Demand is if he wins nicely on Saturday, he runs in the Turners. If he gets beaten, he could be a Bartlett horse, but even at that point, his reputation will take a small hit.
Bar Jet Blue (and whether he comes over), I’m not too concerned about her potential opponents, so The Big Westerner has to be the bet.
She was impressive in the Grade 2 at Limerick on Boxing Day despite the race not running to suit.
The early pace was slow for a contest run on yielding to soft, and she was situated three-wide most of the way around.
When the pace ramped up, she travelled very sweetly and never looked fazed, which was highly impressive.
The second, Mozzies Sister, and fourth, Fleur In The Park, finished second and third to The Yellow Clay on their previous starts, so the form of the race isn’t bad.
Being a half-sister to Stay Away Fay, the 2023 Albert Bartlett winner, is nice to have on her side as well, and I think she will be tough to give 7lbs away to on the day.
Dublin Racing Festival Selections
1:50 Leopardstown – Lady Vega Allen @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win
I’m taking a chance that Lady Vega Allen will reverse the form with Hello Neighbour from Leopardstown on the weekend.
Very similar to last year, Willie Mullins is sending this four-year-old filly into her second start of the season having finished second in a Grade 2 at Leopardstown on stable debut in December.
He did it last year with Kargese and she improved notably for the run, so there’s hope he can do the same with this four-year-old by Saint Des Saints.
Speaking of her first start on Boxing Day, she did well considering she was positioned out the back of the field before storming home to finish a close, close second.
Mullins was impressed by the run and he gave a nice word to her during his stable tour earlier this week. Yes, it’s dangerous to read too much into trainer comments sometimes, but he was remarkably upbeat.
Furthermore, she comes from a nice family as her dam, Sivega, is a full sister to Quevega.
4/1 seems fair, so she is my pick.
4:05 Leopardstown – Ha d’Or @ 20/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW
There’s a case to make that if Ha d’Or returns to his best form, he could be well-handicapped in this field.
On his chase debut, he smashed up The Goffer (rated 136) over 2m5f before finishing a creditable second to Indiana Jones at Navan in March 2023. He had Flame Bearer behind him that day who went on to beat Sir Gerhard in a Grade 1 two starts later.
As a novice hurdler, he gave El Fabiolo a race at Punchestown and plenty of his form tied in with the previously mentioned Flame Bearer.
His recent form hasn’t shown too much, but he was sent off 11/10 to win a Punchestown handicap chase in April 2023 before falling at the ninth fence.
He was positioned prominently that day as well, so the fact he was held up towards the rear on his latest start at Fairyhouse suggests he needed the run after a 413-day break.
He’s a slightly windy play, but he’s a big price for a horse rated 139 with his promising form, and I hope he came on for the run 21 days ago.
4:05 Leopardstown – Fascile Mode @ 17/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Although Ha d’Or was my early fancy in this race, I’m keen to keep Fascile Mode on side in this contest.
I’ve always liked this horse, ever since he beat Lecky Watson on debut at odds of 16/1. Although Lecky Watson is a bit of a stayer these days, beating him with the turn of foot that he showed is good form.
Although his proceeding races didn’t go to plan, notably when well-beaten by Farren Glory in the Royal Bond and Caldwell Potter in the Grade 1 Future Champions Novice Hurdle, he’s still held decent company over hurdles and fences.
In June 2024, he beat Ash Tree Meadow over hurdles when the runner-up was priced at 1/3 and Fascile Mode gave 13lbs away that day. Although Ash Tree Meadow is better over fences, he was race-fit and is rated 158 over the larger obstacles.
As for Fascile Mode over fences, he beat Touch Me Not on chase debut who went on to win a Grade 2 at Punchestown before finishing second to L’Eau Du Sud in the Grade 1 Henry VIII Novices’ Chase.
Fascile Mode was a bit sketchy over his fences at Punchestown in December, so I want to play him win-only in case he jumps his chances away, but he looks well-treated off 135 in this company.
British Racing Tips
2:17 Musselburgh – Balhambar @ 6/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW
The Scottish County Hurdle is a wide-open contest, but I think Balhambar could get his first win of the season.
He’s on a career-high mark now, but his last two runs came in hot handicaps full of unexposed horses.
The first to mention is his third at Cheltenham in November when behind Wreckless Eric. He travelled well and arguably hit the front too soon, but he battled well up the Cheltenham hill to finish third.
The winner went on to run an eye-catching race behind Mirabad, a County Hurdle chance, before finishing third in a good Windsor handicap.
He ran a good race at Southwell to finish second to Alnilam on New Year’s Day and he probably just gave the winner a bit too much rope in the end.
He can run well off 122 and trainer Harry Derham has a lifetime record of 3/7 at Musselburgh.
3:07 Sandown – Flight Deck @ 25/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW
In 2023, I managed to back Mahon’s Glory (trumpet) when he won at Kempton in a handicap on Boxing Day because he ran in the Long Distance Hurdle as a prep.
He wasn’t going to win the Long Distance Hurdle, but he used it as a nice freshen up, and I’m hoping I’ve caught onto a similar scenario with Flight Deck for the Deborah Cole team.
Admittedly, this is probably a different situation as the Getaway gelding ran in the 2023 renewal when finishing a very good third behind Dashel Drasher and Paisley Park, so I’m sure connections wanted to go back for a second try in 2024.
However, that doesn’t mean that the outcome has to be different to Mahon’s Glory.
The 11-year-old did the donkey work at Newbury in November which was always going to be tough for a horse of his ability against the likes of Strong Leader and Monmiral.
While Strong Leader has let down the form since, Monmiral was good in the Cleeve Hurdle earlier this month to give the form some weight.
Flight Deck ran with plenty of credit that day for a horse who was 20lbs wrong at the weights with the winner, 8lbs wrong with the runner-up, and 24lbs wrong with the third (Langer Dan).
He maintained a Grade 2 pace for the majority of the contest and his jumping didn’t falter too much.
Back into handicap company will suit him a lot better, and his current rating gives him a good chance based on his previous form.
His last handicap win, admittedly, came in December 2022, but he won comfortably off 137 that day having won off 133 four starts previously. He also finished third to Hyland, now rated 147 over fences, in a Cheltenham handicap off 142.
He’s gone well fresh before, notably when behind Hyland (224-day break), so this little 64-day break ahead of Saturday looks promising and he’s a winner on soft and heavy before.
With the useful Ellis Collier taking 5lbs off, Flight Deck should go close at a big price.
