Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day 3 Tips | Heart in the right place

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day 3 Tips | Heart in the right place

    Well, day one of the Cheltenham Festival is finished at the time of writing, so before the second day kicks off, here are my Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 3 Tips.

    What a day at Prestbury Park today. Drama-fueled doesn’t begin to describe it, but let’s stick to the column.

    Jango Baie won at 7/1, and he covered the other losses we took on the day. Workahead and Broadway Boy were very disappointing, though Liam Swagger placed in the Fred Winter and Kyntara ran a poor race.

    Let’s roll on to my fancies for day three.

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 3 Tips

    Ryanair Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (1:20, Thursday) – Maughreen @ 6/1 with Betfred (4 places) – 1pt EW

    The one horse who has been a bit divisive on the preview panels in the lead-up to the Festival is Maughreen, but I’m in her camp rather than looking to take her on.

    This does come with a caveat – the word doing the rounds is that Gavin Cromwell thinks Sixandahalf is a certainty. Superb.

    I just can’t help but be impressed regarding Maughreen from her two starts so far. Her bumper was great, even if she beat statues, and she put in a nice effort when winning on hurdles debut.

    The ground was heavy, and one could argue she wouldn’t have loved that surface, especially on her seasonal/hurdles debut. Familiar Dreams, a Grade 3 bumper winner, came out of that race and won next time out to give the form some substance.

    She is a half-sister to Blow Your Wad who won a Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase on a nice surface and also a decent Kempton handicap on good ground. Her other sibling, Sweetowatch, won a Bellewstown bumper on good and finished second in a Sligo bumper on good to firm.

    I think she could be better than this field, so she gets my vote despite her relative inexperience.

    Jack Richards Novices’ Limited Handicap Chase (2:00, Thursday) – Firefox @ 15/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

    I know connections have toyed with the idea of 2m4f for Firefox over the last few years without too much success, but the seven-year-old is dipping his toe into handicap company for the first time, and that makes me interested.

    He’s raced against some good horses over the last few years, notably Mystical Power, Heart Wood, Croke Park, Ile Atlantique, Majborough, and Slade Steel.

    He’s shown a consistent level of ability on pretty much every start over obstacles, which has been good to see, and there have been excuses for some of his disappointments.

    He scoped dirty after the Lawlor’s Of Naas last season and he was taken a bit off his feet in this year’s Irish Arkle behind Majborough.

    His chasing debut over 2m4f was successful on nice ground and he ran a very fine race behind Heart Wood and Croke Park over that distance in the Grade 1 Drinmore Novices’ Chase.

    Although he has plenty of experience on soft ground, he has shown tendencies for enjoying better ground, notably in his winning bumper at Navan, at the 2024 Punchestown Festival, and on his chasing debut.

    This nice Cheltenham ground will be right up his street, and the make-up of the race (handicap and over 2m4f) will help him get into a nice rhythm rather than running in a hot two-mile Grade 1.

    A mark of 150 is fine and Jack Kennedy is booked to do the steering. I like him.

    Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2:40, Cheltenham) – Supreme Gift @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW

    The Pertemps can throw up a surprise or two. I’m hoping this is the case as Supreme Gift is a big price.

    He won nicely at Ascot last season on decent ground when Josh The Boss, a subsequent Silver Trophy winner, was back through the field.

    His last winning mark came off a one-pound lower mark when beating Harbour Lake, who reopposes here, and that came on soft ground.

    He’s shown a good deal of ability on better surfaces before, notably when winning that previously mentioned Ascot race over 2m5f, and he could really outrun his odds.

    Pertemps Network Final Handicap Hurdle (2:40, Cheltenham) – Bugise Seagull @ 28/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 0.5pt EW

    As already mentioned, the Pertemps can be a nightmare, but I do want to keep Bugise Seagull on side at a price.

    This season hasn’t gone too much to plan, but that has resulted in him running here on a rating of 139 despite placing in a Grade 1 and Listed race last season.

    The Grade 1 came behind Brighterdaysahead at Aintree with Jimmy Du Seuil, the Coral Cup winner, in fourth.

    Furthermore, the Listed race he ran in was the Sidney Banks behind the two future Grade 1 winners Handstands and Jango Baie.

    He’s shown tendencies to run well on nicer ground for much of his career and his two runs at three miles in handicap hurdles this season have been intriging.

    With that good Graded form stated, he remains unexposed off 139 in a well-run handicap. Both he and Supreme Gift are big prices who have the capabilities of running nice races.

    Ryanair Chase (3.20, Thursday) – Heart Wood @ 16/1 (ante-post tip)

    Another one of my ante-post bets from this column for the week, this time in the Ryanair Chase with Heart Wood.

    In fairness, with the sheer lack of chat for this horse, I thought he might even drift out from the 16/1 price that I got at the day before the William Hill Hurdle (February 7th), but he’s held his price and even come in a few clicks with some firms.

    For my full explanation, click here and read the top section. Moving on.

    Paddy Power Stayers’ Hurdle (4:00, Thursday) – Lucky Place @ 7/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

    Lucky Place was probably unlucky (lucky) not to make the ante-post selections, but he wasn’t much bigger than his current 7/1 price for the majority of February, so I’m happy we’ve waited until now to play him.

    It surprised me just how bullish Nicky Henderson was on his media day when talking about this horse. Now, that may turn out to be a bad omen, but I was taken back by his comments about a horse that I’ve always liked.

    He ran a huge race in Langer Dan’s Coral Cup last year carrying the weight of bad stable form and my money, and he’s just continued to improve this season.

    He won an Ascot Hurdle when Henderson’s runners needed their seasonal openers, and he further improved to win the Relkeel Hurdle when giving 6lbs away to a subsequent Cleeve Hurdle winner Gowel Road.

    He also gave 10lbs away to Golden Ace, a subsequent Elite Hurdle and Champion Hurdle (I know) winner. Funnily enough, he gave a full 14lbs away to Jeremy Scott’s mare at Taunton on his third start over hurdles and ran a proper race for a long way before finishing second. His subsequent Gidleigh Park form has also worked out well.

    He’s a tough horse. He doesn’t look overly big; he just looks well-built, straightforward, and honest, and he’ll handle a sounder surface.

    Go on, the boy.

    Trustatrader Plate Handicap Chase (4:40, Thursday) – Ginny’s Destiny @ 10/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

    I read a funny little stat the other day from the very shrewd Matt Tombs, so I’m going to share it here.

    In a Racing TV article from the middle of last month, when talking about handicappers at the Cheltenham Festival, he said: “If you’d backed all 102 British “dropped horses” blind at the past three Festivals you would have made a 51pt (50%) profit, so even before we use our judgment to improve returns, it has been a profitable trend to follow.”

    To read the full article, please click here. I would thoroughly recommend it.

    I thought that was pretty remarkable. Considering there have been 102 handicapper droppers from this side of the Irish Sea over the last few Festivals, to walk away with the same amount of money in your pocket is not something everyone would have guessed.

    Anyway, why is this relevant? Well, Ginny’s Destiny started this season with a rating of 155 and he is now down to a mark of 149. Appealing.

    Tombs actually says in his piece that “if you use stable form as an excuse then he looks well handicapped”, and this is how I would read his season.

    All of Paul Nicholls’ runners needed their first run this season, so you can put a line through the Paddy Power Gold Cup. On his next start in the Grade 2 Peterborough Chase, Nicholls’ runners were still a bit below the mark and did the fast right-handed nature of Huntingdon really suit him that much? Probably not.

    Yes, he was poor on Trials Day, but I’ll forgive him. I don’t want to say Nicholls’ runners were under a small cloud at the time again, but they weren’t exactly on fire.

    He’s well-handicapped based on his Turners form with Grey Dawning and Djelo, and I’d like to see him make all from the front in a race like this. He’s the play.

    Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup Amateur Jockeys’ Handicap Chase (5:20, Thursday) – Fantastic Lady @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW

    The Kim Muir is always a tricky race to work out, but Fantastic Lady could have the class edge.

    She beat Ga Law in the Grade 2 Oaksey Chase at Sandown in April and ran a fine race behind Don’t Rightly Know and Apple Away in a Listed Mares’ Chase at Newbury in January.

    Apple Away went on to finish third in the Grand National Trial and Don’t Rightly Know beat Malina Girl in another Listed Mares’ Chase on her next start. Malina Girl ran well in Tuesday’s Ultima to create a bit of collateral form.

    Her last run at Newbury came on soft ground, but a return to a slightly nicer surface should help her and she has dropped 5lbs in the handicap from her opening mark at the start of this season.

    Jack Hendrick is booked for the ride, so he claims a useful 3lbs in the saddle, so she could run well in the first-time cheekpieces.

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day One Selections

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day One Selections

    Cheltenham. It’s the biggest Festival of the year, where punters on both sides of the Irish Sea make the pilgrimage to the heart of the Cotswolds, in the shadow of Cleeve Hill, four four days of unrivalled racing pleasure. Day One looks to be a bonanza day for punters with a plethora of stars, both old and new, on show.

    Big Race View

    Whilst I could take a look at how many lengths Constitution Hill, Lossiemouth or Majborough will win by, I’m focussing on the longest priced favourite of the fab four at Cheltenham today, Kopek Des Bordes. His run at the Dublin Racing Festival was impressive to say the least, but still had a slight twitch of a novice about him. That’s why Willie Mullins has elected to give him a first-time hood, which to stat-loving punters is a death knell. Mullins and first-time headgear do not go well together, but Kopek Des Bordes is bigger than that. He looks fluent and is most feared by those in the Supreme field. He’ll only get shorter on the day.

    Aside from Romeo Coolio, at an each-way angle I think Tripoli Flyer has to come into the conversation. He’s a Grade Two winner, winning the Dovecote at Kempton by no less than seven-and-a-half lengths. That was his shortest winning hurdles distance. The ground will be to his liking, some Irish opponents may have wanted it a little softer. If he can iron out some of his jumping, he won’t be far away.

    Big Race Bet: Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novice’s Hurdle (Grade One) – Kopek Des Bordes @ 11/10 (William Hill), Tripoli Flyer e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    Excellent at Each-way

    Looking at the Mares Hurdle, Lossiemouth is possibly the most vulnerable of the fab four on Tuesday. And there’s one consistent runner I had my eye on to win the race, if Lossiemouth went to the Champion Hurdle. July Flower for the Henry de Bromhead team has spent most of her time in France, and placed at Grade One level. But on most recent Irish start, was an impressive four length winner ahead of Jetara and World Of Fortunes, both winning subsequently in different Doncaster races. Now the heavyweight mare Lossiemouth has barged in, she looks an attractive each-way bet on day one.

    Excellent Each-way bet: Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle (Grade One) – July Flower e/w @ 9/1 (General)

    Handy Handicap Guide

    The best handicap race of the week at Cheltenham, in my opinion, is the Ultima. And the Brits have their best chance of securing this race once again.

    The favourite, The Changing Man, ran an excellent race at Ascot, even if the favourite fell at the second fence, he still looked imperious as he jumped his fences and was hardly lent upon to extend from his rivals. He’s more experience than most novices and has ran a consistent season as well. This should put the cherry on top for what is a brilliant horse in the correct race.

    Somehow, you can’t ignore course and distance winners at the Festival. Broadway Boy is straight into that category and aims for a first win this season. He wasn’t the greatest jumper last time out on Cheltenham Trials Day, but ignore that run to see he’s placed twice in two hot handicaps, including the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. He looks to have been laid out for this race by the Twiston-Davies team and it would be foolish to ignore him.

    And one more to note, Henry’s Friend races for one of the most successful partnerships this season, Ben Jones and Ben Pauling. Not many Saturday’s have gone by this season without them having a winner or two and a Festival win will confirm just what a stellar season they’ve had. Henry’s Friend was an impressive winner of the Mandarin Chase at Newbury following a fifth in the Coral Gold Cup. He’s not been seen since and this looks like another race laid out for him.

    Handy Handicap Bets: Ultima Handicap Chas (Premier H’cap) – The Changing Man @ 15/2 (William Hill), Broadway Boy e/w @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Unibet), Henry’s Friend e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor)

    Selections:

    13:20 – Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Kopek Des Bordes @ 11/10 (William Hill), Tripoli Flyer e/w @ 25/1 (General)

    14:00 – Arkle Challenge Trophy (Grade One) – Majborough @ 8/15 (General)

    14:40 – Ultima Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – The Changing Man @ 15/2 (William Hill), Broadway Boy e/w @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Unibet), Henry’s Friend e/w @ 12/1 (BetVictor)

    15:20 – Mares’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Lossiemouth @ 4/6 (General), JULY FLOWER E/W @ 9/1 (General)

    16:00 – Champion Hurdle (Grade One) – Constitution Hill to win by 3+ lengths @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    16:40 – Fred Winter Juvenile H’cap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Puturhandstogether @ 15/2 (William Hill), Murcia e/w @ 12/1 (General), Wendrock e/w @ 18/1 (William Hill)

    17:20 – National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase – Captain Cody @ 17/2 (William Hill, Unibet), Stuzzkini e/w @ 28/1 (William Hill), Rock My Way e/w @ 50/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Best of Luck!

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day 2 Tips | Not another acca

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day 2 Tips | Not another acca

    At the time of writing, jump racing’s Olympics has not yet kicked off, so let’s just assume I’m about to have a perfect first day ahead of my Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 2 Tips.

    I’m kidding, of course, but these are my finalised fancies for the second day of the Cheltenham Festival, a day that sees Jonbon, The New Lion, Ballyburn, and, most importantly, Roi Mage strut their stuff.

    Just quickly, the ground is going to be very interesting. In my head, I had been working on nice, good to soft spring ground, but bits and pieces of rain (and watering) could well change that. I’m hopeful it’ll be close to this, but things can change.

    Let’s dive in.

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 2 Tips

    Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1:20, Wednesday) – The New Lion @ 15/8 with BetVictor– 2pt Win

    I think The New Lion will be too good for his rivals in the Turners, and I don’t think he price is bad at all.

    Firstly, I see Potters Charm as the each-way danger in this contest. He’s a general price of 10/1 currently, but I’m happy to let it ride out with my 7/1 ante-post tip. He was put up in this column as a 1pt win, so if he obliges, happy days.

    As for The New Lion, I really believe he is the one to beat, and a lot of his form reads favourably. He beat Belliano on debut at Chepstow who has won two since.

    The six-year-old by Kayf Tara then smashed Califet En Vol, a subsequent Sidney Banks winner, in a novice hurdle at Newbury before he won in the Grade 1 Challow Novices’ Hurdle superbly well.

    I don’t get the ‘Challow winners have a bad Cheltenham record’ argument. It’s a differently run race each year with different horses who go on to face different opponents in a different race at Cheltenham.

    I’m not sure how well adapted Final Demand will be to a potentially fast-paced Turners, and the same goes for The Yellow Clay, so The New Lion gets my vote.

    Turners Novices’ Hurdle (1:20, Wednesday) – Potters Charm @ 7/1 (ante-post bet)

    As mentioned, I have a super shrewd ante-post bet on Potters Charm at 7/1 for the Turners. He’s currently 14/1. A job well done.

    To read my write-up, click here.

    Coral Cup (2:40 Wednesday) – Be Aware @ 9/1 (ante-post bet)

    I’ll keep this short and sweet, Be Aware is my Coral Cup fancy, and he’s probably one of my stronger handicap bets of the week.

    He’s a mixture of 5/1 and 4/1 now, so I won’t be topping up, but this column has a nice bit of 9/1 in the satchel ahead of the Coral Cup.

    For my full reasoning on him, click here.

    Let’s hope he obliges and isn’t another value loser.

    Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (3:20, Wednesday) – Galvin @ 4/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    In the Cross Country Chase, I’ve come around to the idea that Galvin will be too good, and he’s even getting weight from Stumptown here!

    There’s no Delta Work for him to run into here, and there’s also no Minella Indo or I Am Maximus for him to take on either, so this looks like one of his easiest assignments in a while.

    In the 2023 Cross Country Chase when second to Delta Work, he travelled powerfully around the fresh ground of the cross-country course but probably didn’t enjoy stepping onto the used course proper.

    Funnily enough, he jumped the last obstacle quicker than Delta Work that day but was just done on the ground up the hill.

    Having looked back through his form, I was reminded of how well he goes when he is fresh. He’s won off breaks including 154, 119, 144, and 211 days, so this 144-day break shouldn’t be too much of an issue.

    The ground debate is a bit up in the air in my mind. It’s probably not going to be as quick as it was once predicted, but there is good in the description already on the cross-country course, so I imagine the surface will be fine.

    He’s one I’m willing to back at the head of the market.

    Glenfarclas Cross Country Chase (3:20, Wednesday) – Roi Mage @ 25/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW

    Cliff horses: they’re great fun, aren’t they? Roi Mage certainly fits that bill, but it’s easy to fancy him in the Cross Country Chase for Patrick Griffin and James Reveley.

    In his limited experience around the Cheltenham cross-country course, he lobbed along under Patrick Mullins off 149 on Trials Day in 2023 before just getting the 20th fence all wrong.

    He’s subsequently finished seventh in Corach Rambler’s Grand National and ninth in I Am Maximus’ Grand National off 149 and 147 respectively.

    A rating of 145 therefore gives him a nice chance in this handicap challenge, especially when you look at his success in the Grand Cross at Craon last year.

    He beat Sweet David by seven lengths that day; Sweet David went on to defy a mark of 140 in the cross country race at the Cheltenham November meeting.

    He won at Compiegne in November 2023 off a 209-day break and he won at the same course in September 2021 off a 127-day break.

    Coming into this race fresh is no issue, so he’s worth covering each way at a smaller stake.

    Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (4:40, Wednesday) – My Mate Mozzie @ 13/2 with Betfred – 1pt Win

    I’m annoyed that My Mate Mozzie has come for some support in the Grand Annual as he looked like a lovely price at 14/1 ante-post.

    Alas, I will still back him for the Grand Annual as I think he is the one here who is less exposed and is well-weighted.

    Gavin Cromwell has always said he prefers nice spring ground, something he has a chance of getting this week, and he isn’t that exposed in handicaps.

    It’s easy to forget that he finished a staying-on second in the 2023 Racing Post Novice Chase to Found A Fifty on yielding ground, and Found A Fifty’s form with Solness, Senecia, Il Etait Temps, Master Chewy, and Pinkerton has worked out nicely.

    My Mate Mozzie finished third in Zarak The Brave’s Galway Hurdle and he was third in the 2024 renewal to the runaway Nurburgring.

    He’s bolted up over the course and distance before when the ground was good, and his first run for 125 days at the Dublin Racing Festival was promising.

    He’s been targeted towards this race all season, and he’s certainly going to be hard on the bridle turning for home. After that, his chance is in the hands of the gods.

    He’s my main fancy in the race.

    Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Handicap Chase (4:40, Wednesday) – JPR One @ 10/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

    My Mate Mozzie may be my number one hope, but I can see JPR One outrunning his odds if the ground stays on the nice side.

    He’s 7lbs higher than his last winning mark, but he beat a subsequent two-time Grade 2 winner that day (Djelo) and he won fairly comfortably.

    His form as a novice chaser also looks good, especially when he beat Matata and Master Chewy at Lingfield on soft ground in the Lightning Novices’ Chase.

    His run behind Jonbon at Sandown in December was also pretty good on undesirable ground, and I’m hoping his Game Spirit effort (which also came on soft) just blew the cobwebs off nicely.

    He’s not chucked in off 156, but he’s classy in the correct conditions and he could be one that people may forget. The more of this predicted rain that lands in Gloucestershire, the worse his chance gets.

    Weatherbys Champion Bumper (5:20, Wednesday) – Kalypso’chance @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

    I get the impression that Kalypso’chance is quite a nice horse, and he’d be my idea of the Champion Bumper winner.

    Yes, taking on ‘Willie’s in the bumper’ comes with its risks, but they aren’t the most convincing market leaders for a Champion Bumper I’ve ever seen. Gameofinches looks like a fine beast for the future and I do think Copacabana is priced accordingly just because W P Mullins trains him.

    They are nice horses, no doubt, but I’m happy to take them on with a fairly solid Gordon Elliott-trained runner instead.

    Kalypso’chance bolted up at Punchestown on rules debut before showing a really nice turn of foot at Navan despite his apparent greenness. Heads Up, the runner-up, was an impressive bumper winner himself and he finished second to the subsequent Grade 2 DRF bumper winner Colcannon at Galway in October.

    I do have a small worry about nice ground. He’s by Masked Marvel, the sire of Teahupoo, Maskada, Predators Gold, and a host of soft ground-loving horses, but it won’t be rattling quick, so that should be fine.

    Nice spring ground should be fine, and he looks like a speedy horse, so maybe he could actually appreciate a bit of a bounce in the surface.

    Gigginstown don’t tend to send many to the Champion Bumper, but when they do, it’s for a reason. Jalon d’Oudairies finished third last year and Abacadabras was fourth to Envoi Allen in 2019.

    He’s my main Champion Bumper horse, especially with Kaylan now no longer going to the contest.

    Three-fold acca – The New Lion (1:20), Ballyburn (2:00) & Jonbon (4:00) @ 11/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

    This is a first for the column and don’t think this is something that will be staying, but I’m pretty happy with the price of the three-fold accumulator for The New Lion in the Turners, Ballyburn in the Brown Advisory, and Jonbon in the Champion Chase.

    My case for The New Lion has already been advertised, but why am I chucking in Ballyburn and Jonbon for a three-fold acca?

    Look, firstly, I’m not usually one for these short-priced Cheltenham accas that get passed around on Racing X like a bottle of vodka at a house party.

    It’s not usually my style as I like to either find an angle against them or to avoid the race completely.

    However, my love for Jonbon is well-documented, and I think his price of 10/11 with BetVictor in the Champion Chase is more than acceptable. If he didn’t take the fourth-last fence home to Lambourn with him during the 2024 Clarence House, he’d be 4/6 for this race.

    As for Ballyburn, I’ve just come around to him over the last few days. He’s 6/5 with BetVictor, and that’s fine for a horse who was clearly the best hurdler last season.

    I think Ballyburn has a class edge over his rivals, he’s ground versatile, and his last run when beating Croke Park at Leopardstown was obviously nice on the eye.

    10.5/1 is the price of the treble on William Hill. Sure, why not? 1pt on at that price won’t hurt. Of course, if it goes down after one leg, the egg will indeed be on my face.

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Jonbon Primed to Break Festival Duck

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Jonbon Primed to Break Festival Duck

    As another Cheltenham rolls into view, for Jonbon, the 2025 edition looks poised to finally break his Festival duck.

    With this year’s annual pilgrimage to Gloucestershire now just days away, the narrative takes are piling up and in the first of BestofBets‘ Cheltenham showcases, we put trainer Nicky Henderson’s favourite for the Queen Mother Champion Chase under the spotlight.

    The son of Walk In The Park has been the bridesmaid on two occasions at Cheltenham before but on Wednesday looks to make it third time lucky.

    However, with expectations heavier on him than ever, can Jonbon finally break his festival duck?

    Festival debut

    Let us wind back the clock almost three years to March 15 2022. Henderson arrives at Cheltenham with what looks to be a vice-like grip on the Sky Bet Supreme to open the festival.

    In one corner, a precocious 5yo by Blue Bresil. Arriving at Cheltenham unbeaten under rules – despite a debut PTP loss – and having romped to 12 -length and 14-length victories; one, Constitution Hill.

    Locked at 9/4JF with Constitution Hill in the betting, stood Dysart Dynamo. As the sandwich filler, in stall 4 stood Jonbon. A 5/1 fancy, the 6yo gelding was an impressive five-from-five wins and looked to be a sizeable challenger. The reality was however, Constitution Hill was blazing his early path of dominance.

    Jonbon came home runner-up but trailed the victor by an eventual 22 lengths. Yet, his loss was somewhat an inevitability.

    Cheltenham woes

    It was his return a year later, however, where Jonbon went, for want of a better word, off the rails.

    Like the build-up to Cheltenham 2022, the 12-month period as a precursor had seen Henderson’s Novice pick up four wins on the spin, including the Top Novices’ on Grand National Weekend and the Henry VIII Chase at Sandown. Jonbon, though not the favourite in the betting, was for many the smart 2/1 punt.

    Having already beaten the 11/10 bookies pick, El Fabiolo at Aintree, Jonbon, however, never got to grips with the extra rain that lingered around Cheltenham that days and failed to contend with an issue of jumping to the left and toward the rail often.

    As the roar built, Jonbon ran out of momentum and ideas climbing the hill. El Fabiolo pounced on the inside and galloped away leaving Jonbon in the dust.

    Despite the bookies’ short price for the Willie Mullins-Paul Townend vehicle, Jonbon for many was the form horse; a theory consigned to the pages of history.

    As damaging a defeat to Jonbon’s reputation the loss was, he bounced back with victory in the Maghull Novices’ and the Celebration Chase to end the season on a high.

    Book-ending both seasons with a return win at Cheltenham in the Schloer Chase and the Tingle Creek, all arrows pointed to a resurgent third crack at Chetenham Festival glory.

    Alas for Jonbon, defeat to Elixir Du Nutz in the Clarence House festival Trial at 1/4 threw open more questions over his jumping ability over the Cheltenham fences, whilst his performance was decidedly off-colour for late January.

    Then of course, came the enormous tribulations experiences by Nicky Henderson’s stable after a virus swept his table, forcing the eventual withdrawal of not only Constitution Hill and then Jonbon, but his entire Cheltenham squad.

    For Jonbon, in the wider picture, it was 0 for 2 – also denied a crack at a third appearance – at Cheltenham, however, this year looks set to break his four-year festival duck.

    Dominance

    Whilst his run-up to another Cheltenham as a unbeaten contender is no different this year, the 9yo version of Jonbon is quite simply a more mature, better performer, with little sign of his old foibles.

    For the second year running in festival prep, the gelding has five races on his card, but after retaining not only his Celebration, Schloer Chase and Tingle Creek crowns, his last outing saw the rights put wrong of the year before, destroying the field to win the Clarence House at the second attempt ahead of Energumene.

    However, there is more than one other factor leaning heavily in his favour. Indeed, there is more than a hint of irony about Willie Mullins withdrawing both El Fabiolo and Gaelic Warrior from Champion Hurdle running – the former out of the week altogether.

    The other main difference this year, is quite simply put, his challengers look out of Jonbon’s league and its is perhaps Energumene – already dispatched this term – as his main rival in the markets.

    French raider Il Est Francais, a former Kauto Star Novices’ winner and last year’s Supreme Novices’ champ, Marine Nationale may both have other ideas, but the long and short of it is, the favourite is by a country mile the pick of the field.

    So much so, that Jonbon’s main rival could be himself.

    Succumbing to race nerves two years back, there is also has a significant mental barrier to climb in the knowledge that since 2016, no less than six market favourites at post have failed to win the Champion Hurdle.

    Nevertheless, the same old frailties seem to be a thing of the past and punters can grab Jonbon to win the BetMGM Queen Mother Champion Chase @ 8/11 with SpreadEx.

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day 1 Tips | The absolute Boy

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Day 1 Tips | The absolute Boy

    So, this is it, here are my Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 1 Tips.

    I always think this time of the Cheltenham build-up is fascinating. Chat is at its highest from every single camp, and it’s so easy to be influenced into backing or not backing one.

    A horse you wouldn’t have given one look to, let alone two, suddenly finds a way into your brain and it’s all you can think of.

    I can’t tell you how much time, and staring into the abyss, was spent on Unexpected Party and the nightmarish Grand Annual on Tuesday afternoon. More to come.

    Anyway, this article will run through my selections for the first day of the 2025 Cheltenham Festival. Last year I didn’t put points against my Cheltenham fancies, so this year is a small step into the unknown.

    For the benefit of clarity, I am gutted Golden Ace has not been declared for the Mares’ Hurdle. She would have been my fancy with or without Lossiemouth.

    Final bit of housekeeping, I won’t have a selection for every race, but this is the Cheltenham Festival, so I’ll naturally have more selections than my standard weekend columns. Because of this, I’ll keep these write-ups on the slimmer side.

    Also, any ante-post bets that have already been advised will be spoken about at the relevant race.

    Anyway, let’s do this.

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 Day 1 Tips

    Michael O’Sullivan Supreme Novices’ Hurdle (1:20, Tuesday) – Workahead @ 9/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

    Yes, I’m one of the ‘wise guys’ that’s taking on Kopek Des Bordes, but please indulge me momentarily.

    When looking at this race for the first time last week, Workahead was the horse who thoroughly impressed me with my eyes and on the clock.

    On his second run over hurdles at Leopardstown, he carried 5lbs more than Kopek Des Bordes, who won on his hurdles debut one race previously, and ran an almost identical overall time. Workahead made all, set his own tempo, and was quicker from the second hurdle to the line; Kopek Des Bordes had Gordon Elliott’s Whinney Hill to shoot at for much of the journey.

    Yes, Kopek Des Bordes’ jumping was bad this day and he improved to win his Grade 1 at the DRF, but the occasion of the Cheltenham Festival could hypothetically see him return to his previous poor jumping, and who’s to say Workahead can’t improve from this run?

    Furthermore, Workahead’s overall time was two seconds quicker than the Grade 2 juvenile contest won by Hello Neighbour who was carrying 12 pounds fewer.

    Away from the times, it’s hard not to be thoroughly excited by what he did on the eye. He winged almost every hurdle and he was able to quicken off his own tempo around the home turn.

    He kicked William Munny, a subsequent winner (144 RPR) and runner-up to Kawaboomga, out of the way and the third a massive 20 lengths behind.

    The seven-year-old by Workforce managed to do all of this in a time when the Henry de Bromhead stable was out of form, and even his pedigree reads well as he is a half-brother to the useful Bronn.

    With the yard now in form, the recent comments from de Bromhead have been positive for Workahead and he is a horse who excites me a lot.

    Arkle Challenge Trophy Novices’ Chase (2:00, Tuesday) – Jango Baie @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    So much for keeping these descriptions short. Just the 295 words spent on the Supreme!

    I’m less inclined to take on the favourite, Willie Mullins’ Majborough, in the Arkle, but it would be remiss of me to ditch Jango Baie at the 11th hour.

    Jango Baie’s chasing debut at Cheltenham over 2m4f was one of the best chasing debuts of the whole season in my eyes.

    Behind maybe his stablemate Sir Gino, the way he took to fences like he was an experienced steeplechaser was a sight to behold, and he won’t be lacking for jumping speed in this Arkle, that’s for sure.

    Tactical speed is the question mark, but he showed a nice turn of foot when beating Tellherthename on hurdles debut and he didn’t lack speed at the end of last season when he finished second in a handicap at Aintree over 2m4f.

    He was nearly taken out of the race by Cuthbert Dibble that day, but he reset, picked up quickly, and chased home Kateira from another parish to finish second.

    There’s a chance they won’t do this, but I’d like them to be aggressive on Jango Baie and let him stride on. I think that’s potentially a way to get Majborough beaten, and if L’Eau Du Sud beats you, then fair enough.

    Jango Baie’s jumping is so good. He sometimes doesn’t settle in his races, so this is maybe why they won’t do this, but if they allow him to jump on and build up a lead, you can put pressure on the other two.

    Anyway, it’s a tough race, but Jango Baie is a horse I rate highly, and he gets my vote.

    Ultima Handicap Chase (2.40, Tuesday) – Broadway Boy @ 10/1 (ante-post)

    This one will be simpler to explain as Broadway Boy is my choice in the Ultima. Well, he was an ante-post play for the column at 10/1 two weeks ago, so we are in a nice position.

    I really like his chances, and I don’t think he’s a bad price currently at 7/1.

    For a full write-up on him, please read here.

    Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.40, Tuesday) – Beyond Your Dreams @ 13/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

    In the Boodles, sorry, the Hallgarten And Novum Wines, JP McManus could have the key with Beyond Your Dreams.

    For a horse of her ability, a mark of 123 looks lenient. Admittedly, she jumped like a grand piano on her latest start, but she had no right to win from her position and yet she still did.

    She finished a staying-on second to Total Look at Navan in November when she had to switch paths before the final hurdle, and the form of the race is working out well.

    Total Look finished second at Cheltenham behind Teriferma and Quantock Hills before running an eye-catching race behind Slurricane at Punchestown.

    The third, Wendrock, went on to beat Galileo Dame at Leopardstown in December before finishing fourth in a Grade 1 at the Dublin Racing Festival.

    She’s bound to get her ground; her jumping is the only concern. It’s a fairly big concern, admittedly, but I’m hoping a combination of schooling and first-time headgear will help her.

    Interestingly, the 1-2-4-5 in the 2023 Fred Winter were all sporting a set of first-time cheekpieces, so I’m hoping this stat will be relevant on Tuesday.

    Hallgarten And Novum Wines Juvenile Handicap Hurdle (4.40, Tuesday) – Liam Swagger @ 20/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW

    With the nature of the Fred Winter, a few horses make appeal, and Liam Swagger is one I’m keen to keep on side.

    He was a decent Flat horse for James Owen having achieved a rating of 82 and bolted up at Southwell last month as a preparation for this race.

    Before that Southwell run, he looked good in three starts over obstacles, and the horses he beat were no mugs.

    On his hurdles debut, he beat Torrent (rated 121) by over four lengths comfortably when getting 8lbs and on his next start he saw off the challenge of Static (rated 122) to win a Listed race at Wetherby.

    He got a bit stuck in the mud at Newbury on soft ground in December and it was his 10th run since March having raced on the Flat in the summer, so I can excuse him for getting beaten at odds of 8/15,

    He also gave 10lbs away to the unexposed Believitanducan, and the pair pulled well-clear of the third, Rakki.

    The cheekpieces returned at Southwell on the Flat last month having been absent for his three hurdles efforts, so they could remain on, which would help him, and I’m hoping the post-Christmas break has done him the world of good.

    Princess Royal National Hunt Challenge Cup Novices’ Handicap Chase (5:20, Tuesday) – Kyntara @ 22/1 with William Hill (5 places) – 0.5pt EW

    I caught onto the idea of Kyntara for the National Hunt Chase a few weeks ago, and now he’s made it into the race as number 16 on the list, I’ll chance him with a small stake.

    Quite simply, his chase rating of 125 is 9lbs below his hurdles mark and he’s only had three runs over fences compared to his 11 over the smaller obstacles.

    He looked laboured on chase debut for Kim Bailey, and he needed his first run of this season when returning to fences, but his Windsor run in January promised more.

    His jumping was more consistent and he stayed on for pressure despite getting badly hampered by the falling Myretown at the third-last.

    On his hurdles form, he has a right chance off 125. He finished second in a Warwick handicap off 124, second in a Newbury handicap off 128, second in a Pertemps (won by Monmiral) off 131, and he was running a huge race behind Dancing City and The Jukebox Man in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle before falling.

    That form is good enough to make me back him, though it is a smaller stakes play.

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Henderson Eyeing Festival Redemption

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Henderson Eyeing Festival Redemption

    As another Cheltenham Festival edges ever closer, Nicky Henderson will be keen to leave behind the nightmare of 12 months ago far in the Gloucestershire mist.

    The Berkshire trainer, now 74, has almost by sheer coincidence as many festival winners as his veteran years(73) but in 2025, Henderson brings with him one of his strongest squads.

    With the returning Constitution Hill and Jonbon heavy leading favourites of the pack, after an extremely challenging last edition, this year’s Cheltenham could be Henderson’s redemption.

    Whilst the loss of the red-hot Sir Gino to a serious leg infection is without question a huge blow, ahead of the festival, there is ample reason for optimism.

    Virus

    Last February, as another festival season moved into view, Nicky Henderson’s plans to record a 74th Cheltenham winner were hit by a hammer blow, when an equine virus ploughed through his Seven Barrows base near Lambourn.

    Forcing a number of his top names to be laid low – including Constitution Hill after a returning romp from absence in the Christmas Hurdle – he then had a shocking public gallop just weeks before the festival as a number of Henderson’s other big names – including Jonbon – saw their form and training hit the rocks.

    It was no surprise then, that the best Henderson’s troupe could muster at last year’s Cheltenham was a handful of runner-up spots, whilst Luccia grabbed third in the Champion Hurdle behind State Man and Irish Point – with an ailing Constitution Hill watching his throne taken.

    However, a year on, the picture looks very different and, as spring peeks its head into view, decidedly rosier.

    Big-name Favourites

    Firstly, the aforementioned Constitution Hill returns to Cheltenham after a two-year absence, looking to regain the same Champion Hurdle crown and make it three-from-three at the festival.

    Now post-wind surgery, the still-unbeaten 8yo – under rules – looks to move back toward his legendary form of old and throw his hat into the ring as a true great of the sport.

    Despite a scare last time on the same course over the final fence in the Unibet Hurdle, the every-popular son of Blue Bresil won a commanding Christmas Hurdle on Boxing Day at Kempton for the third time.

    Is he back to his very best? The signs are there.

    On the opposite end of the spectrum but no less a big favourite of the week, Jonbon looks to make it third time lucky at Cheltenham, having been runner-up in both 2022 and 2023.

    Second – coincidentally – to an emerging Constitution Hill on festival debut, Jonbon was then left in the dirt by El Fabiolo a year later in the Arkle.

    This time around as a 9yo, he looks a far better prospect and mature. Barring plans going seriously awry, he looks hard to topple in the Champion Chase.

    Strong Contenders

    Aside from the big two, Henderson is not without chances elsewhere during the week.

    To begin with, Willie Mullins looks the trainer to beat once more in the Arkle, and is favourite to snag a third race win on the bounce with last year’s Triumph Hurdle victor and last month’s Irish Arkle winner, Majborough.

    However, Henderson is no stranger to Arkle glory on four separate occasions, most recently with Shishkin, and Jango Baie is an outside shot to pull an upset.

    With Nico De Boinville on board, the 6yo won on the New course back in December and in his eight races since debuting two years ago, has finished at worst runner-up.

    Meanwhile, in both the Pertemps and Triumph Hurdle, both Jeriko Du Reponet and Lulamba are carrying significant antepost traction.

    In the case of the former, owner JP McManus will be keen to see his charge put in better effort after being pulled up in the Sky Bet Supreme 12 months ago. Jeriko will likely go to post at 5/1 with QuinnBet as favourite and as a horse who has won in most conditions, should go well.

    Lulamba, on the other hand continues to be the recipient of nibbles from punters in the market. Race pick East India Dock has put together a run of three wins on the bounce, and his win in the Juvenile Trial Hurdle on the Old course back in November proved his credentials.

    With that said, if Henderson sees his charges off to a strong start earlier in the week, the plucky but lightly-raced 4yo comes here unbeaten and put his own case forward with his own Juvenile Hurdle win at Ascot this past winter.

    Promise

    So what can Nicky Henderson expect from the coming week?

    Win 74 should come in the shape of Constitution Hill and providing everything goes to plan in the Champion Hurdle, Nico De Boinville will have his eyes set on a strong week.

    Henderson will have quietly wished last year’s festival never happened, but now with real chances to prove his stable is back to its best, come the end of the week, Cheltenham 2025 could be one his best.

  • Free Cheltenham Festival 2025 Ante-post Tips #5 | Morebattle Hurdle Preview

    Free Cheltenham Festival 2025 Ante-post Tips #5 | Morebattle Hurdle Preview

    Well, Prestbury Park’s showcase meeting of the year is very, very close, but before then I have some free Cheltenham Festival 2025 Ante-post Tips and a weekend preview to share.

    Yes, this piece will highlight my fifth and final Cheltenham Festival ante-post tip alongside four bets for this weekend across Kelso and Newbury.

    In what is my final column of the month, we are pretty much dead-level for February. The column is up 0.56pts at an ROI of 1.8%. Big numbers, I know.

    Let’s try not to give anything away before Cheltenham.

    Free Cheltenham Festival 2025 Ante-post Tips

    Broadway Boy @ 10/1 (general) – Ultima Handicap Chase

    The Ultima Handicap Chase looks like an interesting race at this stage. Money is coming for Whistle Stop Tour at a big price and a few people like Henry’s Friend, but Broadway Boy is my horse.

    He has a rating of 150 now which, admittedly, is a career-high mark, but he’s been rated between 146 and 150 for 15 months now due to a few blow-outs and poor performances when needing the run.

    His last win came off 146 over 3m2f on the new course at Cheltenham where he beat Threeunderthrufive (rated 150 at the time). The runner-up went on to win a valuable handicap chase at Ascot before nearly winning the same Ascot race earlier this month.

    As for this season, Broadway Boy blew off the cobwebs at Prestbury Park before a mighty effort in the Coral Gold Cup behind Kandoo Kid.

    The race has produced Henry’s Friend and Victtorino as two subsequent winners, and Paul Nicholls is adamant Kandoo Kid will run a big race in the Grand National.

    The Coral Gold Cup looks like a notable piece of form in the staying chasing ranks this season, and the mistake he made at the fourth-last didn’t help his charge towards the line.

    Looking at his potential opposition, there aren’t many horses that look like ‘chucked-in’ contenders. Th Ultima never usually has this type of horse, and this year looks very similar.

    Broadway Boy, with his age, could well be a 160-rated chaser in time, so he has the scope to go well at a course he loves.

    Weekend Selections

    1:10 Kelso – Helnwein @ 7/4 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    For the first time in a while, I’m putting up two 2pt win selections, and the first comes in the Kelso opener with Helnwein.

    I want to start by talking about his opposition. Real Stone loves the mud and he won last time out on soft ground. He’s also won on heavy before and he has been declared a non-runner on good in the past.

    Similarly, Netywell has won all four of his races on heavy and he has been a non-runner on good to soft before. 

    Bollingerandkrug is 10 and has been beaten by a combined distance of 51 lengths on his last three starts, Kidman is a bit of an unknown but he doesn’t appear to be obviously well-handicapped, and Gallic Geordie is 12 who could probably do with a softer surface.

    So, by the process of elimination alone, that points to Helnwein, and his form backs that up.

    He beat Be Aware on his final start of last season on good ground and he split Secret Squirrel and Lario at Taunton in April.

    That success over Be Aware also saw him best Secret Squirrel, Steel Ally, and Fiercely Proud, so that piece of form is the best on offer.

    Back on a sounder surface should really suit him and he looks like a fair price to win his first race over fences.

    2:20 Kelso – Fontana Ellissi @ 33/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 0.5pt EW

    I’m taking a bit of a chance on the rank outsider in the 2m5f handicap hurdle as Fontana Ellissi could land a minor surprise.

    He’s had two separate setbacks in the last two years, so he’s only raced three times since the start of 2023.

    Because of this, the handicapper has relented to give him a mark of 110 which is 1lb below his last winning mark, though his most recent success came in February 2022 at Ffos Las.

    A few months after Ffos Las, he chased home a then-129-rated Seddon over 2m4f at Cheltenham on good ground before nearly winning over three miles at Prestbury Park in November 2022.

    Those runs came with official ratings of 114 and 118, so he is well-handicapped based on that form.

    After his first setback, he actually ran some fine races behind White Rhino and Butch at Cheltenham on two separate occasions, but both runs were probably on softer-than-ideal ground.

    Back on a sounder surface will suit him nicely, and connections are applying a first-time set of cheekpieces. Benjamin Macey’s 7lb claim is useful, and he is an interesting runner at a big price.

    3:30 Kelso – Tellherthename @ 9/2 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    For a week or so, I’ve been all-in on Tellherthename fotr the Morebattle, and my confidence has not wavered.

    Let’s start with his campaign so far this season as it’s not been conventional. Having been a short price for the Greatwood Hurdle, connections missed that and sent him to the Grade 1 Fighting Fifth instead. Why?

    Did they want to protect his mark while also getting race fitness into him? Maybe.

    Still, it worked as he ran an eye-catching race behind Sir Gino and was raised just two pounds from the handicapper.

    He’s been absent since, though news came out before the William Hill Hurdle that he had to get a benign tumour removed which set him back a few weeks.

    He didn’t go for the William Hill Hurdle which, in my eyes, was weird because Andrew Megson said it was the plan in a Racing TV article in January.

    Maybe, just maybe, connections decided that they wanted to give the £100,000 Morebattle-Cheltenham Festival bonus a try, but nothing has been confirmed. At least we know the first half of that double is being attempted!

    I’m drawn into the hype that it has been a plan, and as such, I’ve had a small nibble at the 33/1 available for the County Hurdle

    This is a fairly bold claim, but I think he’s one of the best-handicapped hurdlers in the game based on his novice form.

    He was just nudged out by Jango Baie on hurdles debut before smashing Lucky Place at Huntingdon in a canter. When with Ben Pauling, he was thought of as a genuine Supreme Novices’ Hurdle contender, but the ground turned on him.

    He’s thoroughly unexposed in this company, and while I couldn’t get a definite answer out of AJ O’Neill on Monday’s media visit regarding an attempt at the £100,000 bonus, there was somewhat of a twinkle in his eye regarding this weekend.

    4:15 Newbury – Go To War @ 8/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

    Over at Newbury, I’m willing to forgive Go To War and keep my fingers crossed that he can win on his third dive into handicap company.

    For a Fergal O’Brien-trained horse, he attracted plenty of chat as his trainer and Paddy Brennan spoke very highly of him.

    I caught onto the hype, so when he pretty much ran out at Exeter in October 2023 and was then beaten at Taunton in November, I was surprised.

    He put that behind him to beat Jour d’Evasion comfortably on a much slower surface at Ludlow before returning to the track to put Court In The Act away.

    Jour d’Evasion is rated 120 and Court In The Act has a rating of 126, so beating them by seven and three lengths respectively looks like good form considering he is rated 124.

    Go To War ran a fine race on his debut for Nicky Henderson at Huntingdon in December (when he probably needed the run), though he was poor at Newbury on Challow Novices’ Hurdle Day.

    He was sent off the 7/2 favourite that day, but the vet reported that he sustained a wound to his left fore which could explain the performance shown.

    I like their persistence in trying 2m4f again, and the soft ground should play to his strengths.

    If Henderson has gotten any improvement out of Go To War since he’s had him, he can make his mark of 124 look a bit silly and this is a winnable race.

  • Free Kempton Park Racecourse Racing Tips | Harping with quality

    Free Kempton Park Racecourse Racing Tips | Harping with quality

    The Bestofbets.com column is back with some Free Kempton Park Racecourse Racing Tips for Saturday’s Coral Trophy card.

    Last week, Pic D’Orhy was the only think to shout about, and seven says later, I am putting my trust in another short-priced Paul Nicholls runner.

    So, let’s dive in.

    Free Kempton Park Racecourse Racing Tips

    1:50 Kempton – Rubaud @ 11/8 with William Hill – 2pt Win

    I think today is quite hard, but I’m happy to have some outlay on Rubaud in the Grade 2 Pendil Novices’ Chase.

    The base facts behind this horse are that he is a classy horse, he loves Kempton, and he gets his ground.

    His last run at Warwick in the Grade 2 Kingmaker Novices’ Chase was a solid effort around a completely different course to this on the wrong ground in a slightly below-par time for the Paul Nicholls yard.

    The run can be massively upgraded for this, and, furthermore, nearly running down L’Eau Du Sud, the best British chance in this year’s Arkle, is objectively good form.

    Three of his six rivals have to give him weight as well, so that’s another thing going for him.

    I think there’s plenty in the favour of Rubaud today, and he gets my strong vote of confidence.

    3:07 Chepstow – Harper’s Brook @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win

    Have I hit my head? Not that I know of. Am I going insane? Maybe.

    However, Harper’s Brook is my likely winner of the two-mile handicap chase at Chepstow as long as he can put his quirky tendencies to one side.

    Yes, he can refrain from getting his head in front from time to time, but that still means he’s a well-treated horse off 138 and his form still looks good.

    He won off 136 at Wetherby two starts ago and he beat Sacre Coeur by seven lengths off the same mark at Sandown last season. The runner-up has won two races since and is still rated 132.

    His opponents today aren’t a vintage bunch. Indiana Dream ran like a drain at Windsor last month, Sans Bruit has Aintree in mind (though he is a big danger), D J Eckleburg has risen through the handicap by 13lbs since November, Prince Quali is effectively 8lbs higher than his last winning mark, and Jetronic needs to prove his ability.

    Javert Allen is a worthy favourite, but there’s no guarantee he will continue to improve.

    Harper’s Brook looks like a horse who will run his race, and even with his unique characteristics, he is still a talented horse who can win.

    He gets my vote.

    4:10 Kempton – Bourbali @ 8/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

    Bourbali has raced six times around Kempton Park previously, winning two of them, so this return to the right-handed track can encourage his best once again.

    Of those two wins at Kempton Park, he beat Frere d’Armes off 127 and he beat First Street in a two-runner novice chase.

    Furthermore, even some of his defeats at this course look like good form, notably his second off 126 over hurdles to the then-123-rated Grey Dawning in December 2022 over 2m5f on soft ground.

    Over fences, he finished a fine fourth of four in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase last season, a race that produced the future Grade 1 runner-up Master Chewy, Grade 1 winner Nickle Back, and Grade 2 winner Soul Icon.

    He’s never won off a mark of 129, so that is a small worry, but his last win was that success off a 2lb lower mark at Kempton in October 2024 and he was third on two occasions in the first half of the season off 130 and 131.

    Ideal Des Bordes has question marks over this trip, Bad has promised to win his last 12 races, Blow Your Wad is returning from a 317-day break, and Etalon may have longer-term targets.

    Therefore, Bourbali looks like a fine price as an each-way proposition.

  • Four To Follow – Kracking Kempton & A Little Bit Flat

    Four To Follow – Kracking Kempton & A Little Bit Flat

    There might not be any Cheltenham fancies here, but there’s still some fantastic races in their own right. This includes this ultra-competitive Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase with three Grade Two’s to also be sorted out. And there’s a reminder that the flat is creeping closer with the Winter Derby.

    Kempton

    Prayer’s Answered

    2:40 – Pendil Novice’s Chase (Grade Two) – Imperial Saint @ 5/2 (General)

    Rubaud doesn’t look like a chaser, for some reason. L’Eau Du Sud was eased up which flattered the 1L gap between the two at Warwick two weeks ago and it’s interesting that he’s stepped up to this trip for the first time.

    Imperial Saint looks more trusted, with three victories this season including one on a flat track over two-and-a-half miles at Aintree. He also placed in a Cheltenham handicap chase on Trials Day which was an attractive run. There’s a possibility that he could go to the Turners Novice Handicap, and it may be worth a good outing here to get a good mark.

    Flying Fancy

    3:00 – Dovecote Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Tripoli Flyer @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Despite carrying a penalty, Tripoli Flyer deserves a crack at a Grade Two, and it looks winnable too. He’s seeking a hat-trick after ultra-impressive wins by 29L at Market Rasen and 16L in the Scottish Supreme Novice Hurdle. Both have come right-handed, so will be suited to the track and the ground is in his favour too. Ultra consistent, it’s a surprise he’s not favourite.

    Return Of The Power?

    3:35 – Ladbrokes Trophy Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Our Power @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Our Power was the winner of this race in 2023 and has only had four runs after a long break away from racing. This season he’s placed second, both in Cheltenham handicap chases. It was confirmed that this was to be his Gold Cup, and there was no intention of him going to any bigger targets. If you look back to his 2023 run, the conditions are similar. The same mark, with a three-pound claiming jockey on board, and good ground to work on. It’s all set up for him to exploit.

    Beachcomber is another to consider after winning by 10L in a handicap chase over course and distance. On recent form, it looks like he prefers going right handed, so this test will be perfect for him. He’s still got a good mark which will make him competitive and there’s no reason why he shouldn’t finish outside the top-three. 8/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

    Down in the weights, Charlie Uberalles makes some appeal. He won narrowly by a neck at Doncaster in a three-mile handicap chase and moves up a lenient four pounds. With 70 days away from the track, you could argue that this is a race he’s been aimed at. He’s won right-handed and will appreciate the good ground too. Each-way claims at 14/1 (General).

    Southwell

    It’s in the Name

    3:15 – BetUK Winter Derby (Group Three) – Royal Champion @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Royal Champion certainly lived up to his billing winning the Listed Quebec Stakes at Lingfield. The form from that race took an almighty boost when Tyrrenhian Sea went and won next time out. It seems he’s not only found his level, but his surface and his new yard will be all the better for it. Expect to see much more of him in G2 & G3’s this season, and maybe the odd G1 too, particularly after he placed second in the G1 Woodbine Mile in Canada when under th

  • Five To Follow – Bumper Track Day

    Five To Follow – Bumper Track Day

    It’s a bumper’s day racing with graded action from three tracks across the country. Plenty of clues a are up for Cheltenham, plus the Grand National with the Trial race at Haydock Park. The final Grade One takes place at Ascot and so much more in between. First stop, Haydock.

    Haydock

    Port The Call

    2:40 – Rendlesham Hurdle (Grade Two) – Beauport @ 2/1 (General)

    It’s another interesting move from Beauport not take a chasing appointment, but it’s clear that trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies wants to protect that mark. But his hurdles mark puts him in this grade and is top-rated today. A clear stayer, and with rain forecast, loves testing ground. One of the obvious choices for the afternoon, particularly placing third in the G1 Long Walk Hurdle.

    Indiana Dream is an interesting selection with only five runs in his entire career. A former Willie Mullins lodger, he transferred to the O’Neill’s where he finished fourth on return from 407 days away. That run in the Fleur De Lys can be excused as a blow out, and might fancy his chances back tackling hurdles. He has a high rating and dominated on his only start on heavy ground. Surprise at 22/1 (William Hill).

    Useful Git

    3:15 – Grand National Trial Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Git Maker @ 11/2 (BetVictor)

    Git Maker is one of seven in the race who are entered in the flagship contest in April. But Git Maker along with four others need a big win to increase their chances of making the final 34. Git Maker has only had one run this season, which was a blowout over hurdles at Windsor. He’s clearly talented at the marathon trips finishing runner-up in the Kim Muir at Cheltenham followed by a third in the Scottish Grand National. He should be on song for a big race today.

    Famous Bridge can be considered after two decent placed efforts this season. He finished a long distance third in the Tommy Whittle over Christmas over course and distance and has the cheekpieces applied for the first time. He holds an entry in the National and Hemmings horses and the National go hand in hand. Heavy ground will not be a problem and watch for another big performance. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    Fontaine Collonges won over course and distance in a memorable 40 minutes for Venetia Williams on Betfair Chase day at Haydock in November. With the rain due to arrive, it would be silly not to back one of her horses that can handle this type of deep ground. Out of the others, he looks to have a better chance of getting in the National, but a good placed effort will see him higher on the list. 18/1 (William Hill).

    Rocket On The Track

    3:50 – Prestige Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Moon Rocket @ 9/4 (General)

    Moon Rocket fought out a tough finish in the G2 River Don at Doncaster a few weeks ago, but lost in the photo-finish. The likelihood is that he can go one better having finished 3.25L ahead of the rest of the field. Whilst he might not be Albert Bartlett material, against some of the Irish competitors, he can put himself into the each-way picture with a good performance.

    Ascot

    Pic That Out Again

    3:37 – Ascot Chase (Grade One) – Pic D’Orhy @ 7/4 (General)

    Others will side with Cotswold Chase winner L’Homme Presse, but on clear evidence he hates going right-handed. This was the case last year, in the two King George’s and even when he won here as a novice over course and distance. Corbetts Cross is taking an unusual route to what might be the Gold Cup, and Pic D’Orhy adores this track and right-handed tracks in general. This is his Gold Cup and makes sense in this contest.

    Wincanton

    Ripe And Golden

    1:36 – Kingwell Hurdle (Grade Two) – Golden Ace @ 9/4 (General)

    Whilst Burdett Road is a worthy favourite, he has to give weight away. And a full eight pounds goes to Golden Ace, who drops in trip after surrendering her unbeaten record at the start of the season. Those runs came over two-and-a-half miles, and she should the two-mile trip here. Plus, this has been noted as a definite stepping stone to the Festival. With a big allowance and plenty of form at this trip, she can upset Burdett Road to take this at full advantage.

    The very best of luck!