It’s Arsenal vs Aston Villa at the Emirates on Saturday as both teams hope to edge the gap on Liverpool at the top of the table.
The Gunners are coming off the back of a triumphant win against their North London rivals, Tottenham and despite their injury problems, The Gunners are still picking up points. Arsenal have still scored in their last five Premier League matches while Aston Villa have been involved in games where both teams have scored in four of their last five Premier League games. That’s why I’m tipping both teams to score at 1.72.
The Team’s Expected Goals (xG)
Arsenal’s xG at home is an impressive 1.98, so we expect the Gunners to score at least once. They have also scored in every home game this season except their 0-0 draw against Everton in December.
Aston Villa’s average xG is 1.33 goals per game. They have only failed to score once in their last seven Premier League games, that game they were beaten 3-0 away to Newcastle on Boxing Day. Away from home, Aston Villa’s xG against is 1.6 which favours the Gunners scoring at the Emirates.
Aston Villa’s season has been full of ups and downs showing they score as much as they concede. Villa have averaged 1.5 goals per game, but in contrast have conceded an average of 1.6 goals.
Will Both Teams Score?
Gabriel Jesus was stretchered off in their FA cup clash against Manchester United with a suspected torn ACL which means his season comes to a premature end. Awful news for Arsenal and the Brazilian who had finally found some confidence and was backing it up with goals. They now depend on Kai Havertz even more to deliver the goals for them while they potentially look for another striker in the January transfer window. Havertz has seven goals to his name this league season so far and five of those have come at home.
Jhon Duran is back from serving a suspension after his red card for violent conduct away to Newcastle. We’re unsure if he will start the game as Ollie Watkins has been playing well in his place. Watkins even scored the winner against Everton midweek, but Unai Emery may want to rest the England international on Saturday. Either way, I think Duran will make an impact off the bench. Both players have 15 goals combined in the league, they should cause the Arsenal defence some problems. They both can compete physically against the likes of William Saliba and Gabriel Magalhaes who have only conceded 16 goals in their 21 league games this season.
Their Last Meeting
Arsenal beat Aston Villa 2-0 in the reverse fixture earlier in the season. Despite Aston Villa having more shots on goal than their opponents that day, Arsenal still grabbed an away victory. This shows for a close encounter where either team are not scared to go on the front foot and attack for the three points.
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