Premier League Gameweek 31: Tips and Preview

Gameweek 31 offers a compact set of fixtures with high stakes as the title race and European spots sharpen into focus, and our expanded preview here complements the existing match-by-match analysis by highlighting market value, statistical signals and sensible staking approaches. You must be 18+ to use bookmaker products and the guidance below; always gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose.

Smart markets and best value picks for Gameweek 31

When looking for value across GW31 it pays to separate market noise from statistical edge, so prioritise both teams to score markets, anytime scorer lines and select shot- or xG-based props where historical form supports a deviation from textbook favourites. Use bookmaker comparison tools to find the best available price for a chosen market and treat enhanced odds as occasional value plays rather than a core staking strategy.

Liverpool v Watford: attacking lines and odds

Liverpool’s fixture at Anfield looks straightforward on paper but fixture congestion and rotation risk with a Champions League tie midweek increase the appeal of markets that reflect goal likelihood rather than outright match winners; both teams to score and Watford scoring anytime look like realistic value options given their recent away form. For punters interested in player goals, Cucho Hernández’s pace and positional work mean an anytime scorer line is worth monitoring with a clear stop-loss and modest stake relative to bankroll size.

Manchester City at Burnley: tactical and bets

Burnley at Turf Moor traditionally compresses possession for the visitors and encourages crosses and set-piece opportunities, which can skew markets towards both teams to score and over/under total shots on target rather than simple match odds; City should dominate but market pricing often offers value on specialist scorers like Wout Weghorst when he benefits from aerial work and direct service. Backing a single striker to score can work as a small, selective play where the price is meaningfully better between bookmakers and follows a data-backed narrative, and staking should be scaled to reflect the long-term expected hit rate of such bets.

Chelsea v Brentford: set pieces and key markets

Chelsea’s European commitments and absence of home fans may reduce their marginal advantage, and Brentford’s physicality under pressure often produces set-piece and expected goal (xG) opportunities that favour Ivan Toney-related markets; consider shots on target props, first-goal markets and boosted specials for Toney where the price is credible. Christian Eriksen’s ability to arrive late in the box and shoot from distance gives added interest to long-range scoring markets, though these should be treated as speculative and stake-light plays in a balanced plan.

Tottenham against Newcastle: form, targets, odds

Tottenham’s home fixture versus Newcastle is a contest of finishing efficiency and counter-attacking threat, and markets such as both teams to score, correct score doubles and player-to-score doubles for Kane and Son reflect the clearest lines of attack for value bet construction. When a bookmaker offers a double on two established scorers, weigh the implied probability against underlying chance-creation numbers; if Tottenham’s chances created per 90 justify the combined market probability, a modest, percentage-based stake may be sensible.

Arsenal at Selhurst Park: away record analysed

Crystal Palace’s home form and compact defensive shape can frustrate even high-possession sides, so Arsenal’s away win price at around evens should be treated as a fair market result unless deeper indicators — such as Palace’s recent xG conceded and their set-piece threat — suggest a deviation. For neutral bettors, Asian handicaps with small negative lines for Arsenal or Arsenal to win without concede (conditional on team news) present alternative exposures which can reduce variance compared to betting the straight 90-minute result.

How to size stakes and protect your bankroll

Adopt a percentage-based staking plan such as 1–3% of your active bankroll per standard bet and lower for speculative enhanced or long-shot plays; this protects longevity and prevents chasing losses when markets swing against you. Treat each bet as an investment in testing an assumption, not a path to income, and keep a simple log of wagers, odds and outcomes to review hit rates and return on investment over monthly cycles.

Using data: expected goals and shot maps

xG and shot-location data are valuable for short-term form analysis because they capture quality of chances rather than just outcomes, so prefer to follow teams with consistently positive xG differences and stable chance-creation profiles across several matches. Shot maps reveal persistent weaknesses such as susceptibility to crosses or conceding from central zones and can point to markets like opposing winger shots, set-piece goals or target-man anytime scorer props that bookmakers sometimes misprice.

Weekend horse racing pointers for the betting week

Although this preview focuses on football, the weekend racecards can offer low-correlation betting opportunities that diversify risk across sports; look for horses returning from short layoffs with positive trainer/jockey stats and for races where pace maps indicate a clear tactical advantage. Use bookmaker comparisons to secure best prices, include place-only strategies for tight fields and always factor in going and late withdrawals before placing a bet.

Both teams to score and anytime scorer value markets

Both teams to score markets compress information about both attack and defence and often outperform simple match-winner markets when a favourite is priced low but the underdog has recent scoring evidence, so these lines are useful for game-by-game value hunting. For anytime scorers check minutes played, competition rotation risk and recent shot involvement to avoid over-exposure to players who lack sufficient attacking volume.

Shot maps, expected goals and short-term form

Rely on multi-match samples of xG and non-penalty xG to reduce noise and avoid overreacting to single-game luck; shot location and key pass metrics give extra context on whether a striker’s low conversion rate is likely to normalise. Combining these numbers with known team news such as injuries and rotation will lead to more consistent selections across a season.

How to approach boosted and enhanced odds safely

Enhanced odds and promotions can offer genuine value but should be treated as occasional plays within a disciplined staking plan, never as a substitute for sound selection criteria or bankroll management. Always compare the enhanced price to the best standard market price and limit stakes to a small fraction of your normal unit when the edge is promotional rather than analytical.

Quick horse racing pointers for the weekend cards

Check last-run patterns, trainer form at the track and early declarations to avoid late surprises, and use place-market hedging where the field size and finishing history make outright betting too binary. If a free bet or best-odds guarantee applies, use it for lower-risk selections to increase expected return without changing stake discipline.

Stay in control: 18+ and responsible play advice

Gambling should be treated as entertainment for people aged 18 and over only; set deposit, loss and session limits and use self-assessment tools available from licensed operators to keep activity sensible. If gambling causes any harm, seek help from support organisations and consider self-exclusion or time-out tools provided by bookmakers.

You can explore current bookmaker offers through our comparison tools if you choose to bet responsibly and prefer to check the best available odds across firms.

For those who use affiliate links on this site, we list offers clearly and do not recommend increasing stakes because of a promotion.

Common questions on GW31 bets and markets

Can I bet on boosted markets during GW31?

Yes, you can use boosted markets but treat them as occasional plays and compare the boosted price to standard odds to confirm genuine value; keep stakes small relative to your bank. Remember you must be 18+ and only bet within your limits.

What are sensible stakes for Premier League bets?

A percentage staking approach of 1–3% of your bankroll per typical wager is sensible and helps manage variance across the season; reduce stakes on speculative or promoted bets. Avoid chasing losses and never stake funds needed for essential living costs.

How to use bookmaker comparison tools responsibly

Comparison tools help identify the best available price for any market and can increase long-term value; use them before placing a bet and confirm terms for promotions. Only select operators regulated for the UK market and prioritise licensed firms.

Are anytime scorer markets worth the risk?

Anytime scorer markets can be profitable when backed by volume metrics such as shots in the box and expected goals, but they carry higher variance than match result bets so stake accordingly. Check team news and minutes played to avoid wasted stakes on rested starters.

What data matters most for short-term football form?

Use a combination of xG, chances created, shots in the box and defensive errors over a 3–6 match window to judge short-term form, and always factor in injuries and rotation risk. Raw results alone can be misleading without these underlying indicators.

Can I compare odds for horse racing this weekend?

Yes, comparing odds across bookmakers is standard practice and often yields better returns, especially with place-money and each-way markets; look for price guarantees or best-odds guarantees. Always account for race-specific factors like going and jockey changes before committing funds.

How do enhanced odds affect expected value?

Enhanced odds can temporarily improve expected value for a single outcome, but they should not replace a disciplined selection process; limit stake sizes and consider the normal market price as the baseline for long-term strategy. Treat most promotions as marginal improvements rather than transformational edges.

Explore our current recommended bookmaker free bet offers and claim details at https://bestofbets.com/free-bets when comparing available bonus terms and odds. You can also view top casino bonus offers and terms on our casino promotions page at https://bestofbets.com/casino-bonus.