Day: 28 March 2025

  • Bundesliga | Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart

    Bundesliga | Eintracht Frankfurt vs VfB Stuttgart

    Eintracht Frankfurt will face off against VfB Stuttgart in what promises to be a thrilling Bundesliga encounter with plenty of goals expected. The last time these two teams met in the league Frankfurt came out on top with a 3-2 victory in November. Given the attacking form of both sides this season, fans can expect another high-scoring game. Based on this trend and current statistical research I’m tipping Over 2.5 Goals and Both Teams to Score at 1.72.

    Over 2.5 Goals

    Frankfurt’s recent matches have all been high-scoring affairs with over 2.5 goals scored in each of their last five games. Stuttgart’s goal stats have been similar with four of their last five games having featured over 2.5 goals. This makes the upcoming clash an excellent opportunity for another goal-filled game.

    Looking at the season as a whole, Frankfurt have seen over 2.5 goals in 69% of their matches while Stuttgart have done so in 73%. Both teams are among the top five Bundesliga clubs in this statistic, with Holstein Kiel leading with 77%. Additionally, four of the last five meetings between these two sides have ended with over 2.5 goals scored, further supporting the likelihood of a similar outcome this time around.

    When it comes to Expected Goals (xG), Frankfurt have an average of 1.68 expected goals per game, but they’ve been outperforming that metric, averaging 2.08 goals per game. Stuttgart have also been more prolific than their xG suggests, scoring 1.81 goals per game. Both teams have shown a tendency to score more than expected but they’ve also been leaking goals, with each side conceding more than 1.5 goals per match this season.

    Both Teams to Score

    The trend of both teams scoring is also strong heading into this game. Eight of the last 10 matches involving Frankfurt have seen both teams score, a statistic shared by Stuttgart in their last ten games as well. This corresponds to a 73% rate for both teams in terms of games where both teams have found the back of the net this season. Additionally, eight of the last ten head-to-head matches between these two teams have ended with both sides scoring further reinforcing the expectation of an exciting, end-to-end contest.

    Defensively, both teams have struggled to keep clean sheets. Frankfurt have managed to keep only five clean sheets this season representing just 19% of their games, while Stuttgart have managed to keep a clean sheet in only four of their matches. This suggests that both teams are vulnerable at the back and both will likely find the net in this encounter.

    Head-to-Head: A Crucial Clash in the Bundesliga

    As it stands, Frankfurt are in 4th place in the Bundesliga with 45 points and are pushing to secure a spot in next season’s UEFA Champions League. Stuttgart, sitting in 10th place, are just eight points behind Frankfurt, meaning this is a crucial game for the away side. A victory for Stuttgart could significantly close the gap and improve their chances of qualifying for European competitions next season.

    This match up is set to be a thrilling contest between two sides known for their attacking prowess and defensive vulnerabilities. With Frankfurt eager to solidify their Champions League ambitions and Stuttgart keen to climb the table, we should expect to see goals on Saturday.

    Get £50 in Free bets with Betfred Sports!

  • Four To Follow – Return Of The Flat

    Four To Follow – Return Of The Flat

    Summer is approaching, which means the flat is back. And we kick off with the traditional curtain-raiser, the Lincoln at Doncaster. A big old cavalry charge over a straight mile is a great sight to behold. Who will become the first turf flat winners of the season?

    All Hail Norman

    1:15 – William Hill Brocklesby Stakes – Norman’s Cay @ 11/4 (General)

    Possibly the best two-year-old race of the season. The Brocklesby doesn’t usually throw up any future classic winners but it can throw up an unusual winner. Norman’s Cay is bred by sprinting sire Sioux Nation out of one time winner Dear Miriam and represents the leading connections Amo Racing. Richard Hannon has also won this race with the same connections three years ago.

    One who could throw up an unusual winner is Justice Twice. Both trainer and jockey, whilst having limited runners, are operating at a fantastic strike rate. Bred by Inns Of Court out of one-time winner Dubawi mare Second Life. Drawn towards the far side rail, he could be another double figure priced winner at 25/1 (General).

    Delightfully Flat

    2:25 – William Hill Cammidge Trophy (Listed) – James’s Delight @ 11/4 (General)

    Last year, James’s Delight was a good Listed winner at Deauville last year before attempting the dizzying heights in group company. Finishing a short-neck second at the same venue in a Group Three. He then finished eighth in the British Champions Sprint Stakes at the end of the season. Now on reappearance he drops markedly in grade and does not have a penalty to contend with.

    Down to Mile Lane

    3:00 – William Hill Doncaster Mile (Listed) – Liberty Lane @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Doncaster is a happy hunting ground for Liberty Lane. He’s both won and finished runner-up over course and distance in three starts. Last year, he finished in the midfield of the Lincoln field but bounce right back with a win in the Suffolk Stakes at Newmarket, before scoring the lucrative Cambridgeshire Handicap at the same course and distance. He’s top rated in this race and may be aimed at more group contests this season, and can get underway with a nice Listed victory.

    Lincoln Warrior

    3:35 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage H’cap) – Native Warrior @ 10/1 (General)

    Native Warrior established himself into the heritage handicap company as a three-year-old last season, finishing third in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot and second in a Glorious Goodwood handicap before blowing out in a class two handicap over this course and distance during the St Leger meeting. He’s down to a good mark and is drawn nicely over on the near side in stall 21. He may not have solid evidence of performing on this ground but improvement is expected now as a four-year-old.

    Lattam could go close again in the Lincoln after finishing a close-up second in last year’s contest behind Mr Professor. He’s got a good reappearance record with three wins and three placed efforts including finishing runner-up in the Balmoral Handicap on Champions Day in October. Surprisingly he hasn’t won in over 18 months but has put in some exemplary performances and will be up at the finish once more. 12/1 (General).

    Alpha Crucis is an outsider in this field but could put in a good performance if rain arrives on Town Moor. He’s usually seen over ten furlongs including doing a double at Goodwood at the back end of last season. However, he finished fourth in last year’s Lincoln and is usually a good starting point for horses who want to travel further. Gary & Josh Moore will be hoping for a rain dance this weekend for a rare flat winner. 25/1 (General)

  • Doncaster Lincoln Meeting Tips | Cracking start to the season

    Doncaster Lincoln Meeting Tips | Cracking start to the season

    “The Flat is back,” we all cried earlier this week, and with this excitement still filling my head, I have three Doncaster Lincoln Meeting tips to consider for Saturday.

    It’s true, the Flat is back, but it’s only momentarily with Aintree, Ayr, Sandown, and Punchestown still to come this jumps season.

    Still, I love the Flat as much as the next man, and I have a few fancies for this weekend’s competitive action.

    I’ll admit, the last few weeks haven’t been great, and I was particularly downbeat about last weekend’s selections. They were notably poor.

    It’s always a tricky period this time of year, so I’ll just have to bat a bit smarter and see how we go.

    Doncaster Lincoln Meeting Tips

    2:25 Doncaster – Iberian @ 8/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

    Iberian had a weird season last year which has almost made him a bit of a below-the-radar horse, and although he is running for the first time this season, he has the ability to win this.

    As a juvenile, he was a high-class animal. He finished second in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes behind Haatem, the subsequent Irish 2000 Guineas runner-up, and ahead of the now 111-rated Mountain Bear.

    He was given plenty to do that day by William Buick and he stayed on through the line; a more prominent ride could have seen him win that day.

    Following that, he won the Group 2 Champagne Stakes when beating Sunway, Rosallion, and Mountain Bear.

    Although the race occurred over seven furlongs, they went slow early-on turning the contest into a sprint. The speedier Iberian was always going to get the better of Sunway that day, and Rosallion didn’t enjoy the softer conditions, but that piece of form is still very smart.

    Sunway won a Group 1 on his final start of that season before finishing second in the Group 1 Irish Derby the following season, and Rosallion’s three-year-old speaks for itself.

    On his final start of the season, Iberian ran in the Dewhurst and finished sixth on ground that was on the soft side for him. Still, he travelled sweetly and looked to have a good chance two furlongs from home, but the stamina test probably caught him out late-on.

    With a win at Southwell in December under the belt, I was pleased to see in the week that Charlie Hills has planned to run him in this race for a while as this is successful track for the Lope De Vega four-year-old.

    3:00 Doncaster – Chic Colombine @ 12/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

    Billy Loughnane has chosen Botanical over Chic Colombine, which is a small worry, but the latter is the one I’m more confident about.

    She’s two from three in races after a 70-day break, notably when winning the Listed Prix la Camargo in March 2024 following a 155-day break.

    She beat Sparkling Plenty, a subsequent Group 1 winner and two-time Group 1 placed mare, by eight lengths that day, which is nice form.

    Two starts later, she had a terrible route through the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Epsom Derby Day and was beaten by just a neck.

    Breege, the winner, went on to land the Group 2 City Of York Stakes and the third, Royal Dress, went on to win the Group 3 Meadow Court Stakes at the Curragh.

    Good to soft ground is something that should suit her, and she gets weight from the boys. She has to improve, but pieces of her form and last season’s performances suggest she can.

    3:35 Doncaster – Whip Cracker @ 12/1 with Betfred (6 places) – 1pt EW

    Just the one for me in the Lincoln, but it’s one I’ve been with all week as Whip Cracker looks like an interesting player.

    Although the stats suggest that race fitness isn’t a necessity in previous Lincoln winners, his run at Wolverhampton in the Lincoln Trial earlier this month has to be a positive.

    He looked fresh enough in the early stages of the race, so the run hopefully took the edge off him ahead of this weekend, and his effort towards the line was eye-catching.

    His standout piece of form is his second on seasonal reappearance in the Listed Feilden Stakes last year as the winner, Jayarebe, went on to win a Group 2 and finish behind Economics at Deauville.

    Caviar Heights, the third, won a Listed race on his next start and finished behind Kalpana at Hamilton in July and the fourth, Ambiente Friendly, won the Derby Trial at Lingfield before placing in both the Epsom Derby and Irish Derby.

    He finished third over 1m2f in a nice Newbury three starts later, and the second, Bolster, went on to win a Class 2 York handicap before winning the Listed James Seymour Stakes at Newmarket.

    She is quite the price in this race. She will be a horse to follow this season, no doubt, and I’m hoping she can start the campaign with a win here.