Best Of Bets

Tag: York Dante Meeting

  • Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    We resumed normal service with two winners and four places. Clarendon House and Economics made us end in profit and go into the final day of the Dante Festival on an even keel. Today it’s the turn of the older horses, with the Yorkshire Cup taking centre stage. And there’s one horse who looks like he shouldn’t belong there…

     

    A Blooming Bet

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    2:45 – Knights Solicitors Handicap – Botanical @ 100/30 (General)

    Botanical was one of my bets for Chester last week, but swerved the Roodee due to the ground and has come up to the Knavesmire. Roger Varian hasn’t had the best of times lately, but he’s waited to get Botanical out for a while and thinks his best opportunity is here. The bend will help him, given his wins have come at Hamilton, which has a bend. Ground is in his favour and his last run was finishing six lengths in front of the Lincoln winner, Mr Professor.

    Eilean Dubh has had a dry spell since mid-Summer last year. But he showed some promise last time out at Thirsk and should come on for the run. Stepped back up in trip and down two pounds to a mark of 89 should make the world of difference. He’s run and won over a mile before, but this step up in trip could show a new side to Eilean Dubh. Unexposed at 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    I can’t ignore a horse who’s well-in in the handicap. Loyal Touch for local trainer Charlie Johnston was only half-a-length behind the eventual winner Tony Montana when he just couldn’t keep on. But he was clear two-and-a-half lengths clear of third and has been ultra consistent in his last three runs. One narrow win and two narrow defeats, plus well-in in the handicap makes Loyal Touch one to watch. 9/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Colourful And Bright

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    3:15 – Michael Seely Memorial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) – True Cyan @ 4/1 (General)

    True Cyan might be a little looked over in the market after her fourth in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, but the form is backed up, somewhat. Kathmandu ran a blinder in the French 1000 Guineas last Sunday and finished a little under two lengths behind her. Her maiden win has been backed with plenty of form and the step up to the mile will suit her better than seven furlongs.

    And just one little shoutout to Carolina Reaper. She was sent on a fact-finding mission over ten furlongs where she ran into Friendly Soul. She was extremely disappointing in the Musidora, but 10 furlongs was never her distance. The mile will suit her so much better and at this level, she should run a big race at 25/1 (General).

     

    Group Getter

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    3:45 – Yorkshire Cup (Group Two) – Vauban @ 7/2 (General)

    How is Vauban second favourite? In a Group race? Over a mile and six furlongs? Trained by the British Champion jumps trainer?

    Tower Of London was good in the Middle East, take nothing away from those performances. But he’s up against a Royal Ascot winner, a Grade One winning hurdler and a horse who has now been rerouted to go on the flat. Vauban is a made Gold Cup, if not Group One winner. His price boggles the mind.

     

    Surrounded

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    4:15 – Darley EBF Novice Stakes – Under Siege @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    An intriguing novice stakes makes up our fourth race, and one horse comes in with his form rocket boosted. Under Siege was beaten by none other than Economics and still stands as second favourite. There are some more boosts behind Under Siege as well and Andrew Balding has had a good patch of form recently. Local rider Danny Tudhope gives him an extra boost.

    Dark Tornado has also some good form behind him after finishing second last September. He’s joined James Horton, who looks to have a useful horse on his hands and should have progressed well from two to three. He has plenty of distance form, over the mile, in his breeding and is an interesting price at 9/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    The Dante Festival and York remained as unpredictable as ever. The Placepot won over £28,000, which just shows how unpredictable yesterday was for not only backing winners but backing each-way shots too. Hopefully today is easier with four more tips from the Knavesmire.

    A Full House

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    2:15 – Lindum York Handicap – Clarendon House @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    With the ground now good, Clarendon House has a great opportunity. He’s been running on the All-weather this Winter and has found success. No less on his current mark of 105. Whilst he did come fourth on heavy ground on his first turf start of the season, he was only one-and-a-half lengths behind, so the ground can be blamed for that result. On a winning mark, with good ground in his favour and drawn next the pace which comes from stall 11, he presents one of the best chances in the race.

    Alligator Alley is no stranger to York. His last result on the Knavesmire was only beaten by a neck during the Ebor Festival. Since then, he’s mostly been running on the all-weather and comes into this race low in the weights. He’s dropped down to a mark of 89 so it should suit him better. He’s only won two turf races on firm ground, which is a worry. But a low mark should see him come over that obstacle. 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Good Earth looks to have a good chance as an outsider. With three pounds taken off by Connor Planas, he’s down to a previous winning mark. He loves give in the ground and he can go prominent as he’s drawn next to Arecibo. His last win came off a two-pound higher mark as well so he should be in the mix at the finish. 22/1 (General).

     

    Always Fun Up North

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    2:45 – Hambleton Handicap – Northern Express @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Northern Express loves York. He’s raced there for the Michael Dods team 13 times and won three. He’s finished in the top three eight times, so has a decent enough strike record over both a mile and seven furlongs. He can go any ground, but will appreciate the dig in the ground that going is giving. He’s on a mark of 100, which is only a pound above his highest winning mark of 99. Win number four incoming for Northern Express. Choo-Choo!

    Bopedro looks an interesting runner. He hasn’t won since August off a mark of 98, and he’s back down to that mark today. His best performances seem to come on marks in the 90s, so expect one today with a mark of 98. He can go on all sorts of ground and was placed at York last season as well. 25/1 (Boylesports) looks an absolute steal.

    Cruyff Turn won the race two years ago for Tim Easterby. He hasn’t been running well of late but goes down to a mark of 88. That’s two pounds below a previous mark of 90 and loves cut in the ground. He competed in this race last year off a seven pound higher mark and Easterby might have had this race in mind after disappointing in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Let-Er Rip

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    3:15 – Middleton Stakes (Group Two) – Free Wind @ 7/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Free Wind goes extremely well fresh. She’s won all three of her races off a break and doesn’t seem to come on for the runs after. However she did win four races as a three-year-old. She won this race last season by half a length and all her opponents had decent seasons after that. Don’t expect anything of Free Wind this season unless she’s coming off a break.

     

    Wisdom Number Four

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    3:45 – Dante Stakes (Group Two) – Ancient Wisdom @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Ancient Wisdom looks a lot more solid as a Derby contender than most. His form as a two-year-old stacks up impressively with three winners and three places from the Futurity Trophy. He’s by the legend that is Dubawi and out of a Group Three winning mare over a mile-and-a-half. He should come on for the step up in trip and handle it well.

    Don’t discount Economics in this race. Two winners have already come out of his maiden win at Newbury and were well down the field against Economics. Despite being by a miler, his mother was a Group Two winner over a mile and a half so will handle the step up in trip and looks a nice price at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    York Dante Festival Day 1 Bets | Talented but quirky

    Saturday’s column covering the action at Ascot and Lingfield regained the losses obtained from Chester last week, so we sit in profit ahead of the York Dante Festival.

    Fair play to the ground staff at York Racecourse for their frequent and detailed updates on the ground, so it looks as if the ground will start on good, good to firm in places.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    2:15 York – Chillingham @ 7/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opener, there are a few reasons to think Chillingham could run well under Callum Rodriguez.

    Trainer Edward Bethell applies the first-time cheekpieces to his five-year-old by Ulysses today, and based on his recent performances, this should help as he wandered slightly when second at Wolverhampton three starts ago.

    Speaking of that run, that marked his first dive into a 14-furlong race and P J McDonald decided to stride on with him early into the race, so he did well to remain in contention at the line on his first start at the extended distance.

    Prydwen (who has improved 14lbs since) won the race and Zealandia (rated 4lbs higher) finished third; Zealandia beat stablemate Enemy two starts later, a piece of form that looks strong as Enemy beat Military Order (2023 Lingfield Derby Trial winner) at Southwell before finishing second to Tower Of London in the Group 3 Red Sea Turf Handicap.

    The recent rain will help take the sting out of the ground, so he’ll have no excuses in that department, and a mark of 96 is 1lb below the mark he was on when he finished a close second at Ripon in a Class 2 0-105 handicap.

     

    4:15 York – Mortlake @ 8/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    If Ralph Beckett has Mortlake ready to go on his first start of the season, there is a lot to like about his profile in this handicap.

    The three-year-old has to shoulder top weight, but he deserves to based on his juvenile season.

    The 100,000gns purchased bolted up by five lengths at Leicester on his second start of the season before he contested the Group 3 Solario Stakes.

    He came home in fifth that day, beaten just over two lengths, but the third (Devil’s Point) finished second in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes on his next start.

    Furthermore, he shaped nicely behind horses that day and Rossa Ryan had to momentarily stop riding one furlong from home as his mount moved tight to the rail.

    Connections have gelded him since and he drops into handicap company for the first time, so his mark of 96 looks interesting.

     

    5:20 York – Wahraan @ 9/2 with William Hill (6 places) – 2pt Win

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    In the finale, despite his quirky character, Wahraan gets the nod in the Class 4 0-85 handicap.

    The six-year-old has had his fair share of issues so far during his career as he had a total of 786 days away from the track between September 2021 and December 2023.

    However, having started his career with Sir Michael Stoute, the six-year-old by Le Havre is under the guidance of Jamie Osborne and has scope in his mark to improve.

    Firstly, the chestnut gelding once had a rating of 96 – admittedly, in 2021 – but his time on the sidelines and a few poor runs have pushed his mark down to 82.

    On his last start, he wore a hood for the first time and dropped into a Class 4 handicap for the second time, and despite giving up nearly eight lengths at the start, he stayed on past horses to finish a close third.

    That wasn’t the first time he displayed issues at the starting stalls but it was the most pronounced event of his career.

    His actions out of the gates are a concern for today, but he is riddled with talent and he even comes from the same family as Was (2012 Epsom Oaks winner), Douglas Macarthur (2017 Group 3 Leopardstown Derby Trial winner), and Amhran Na Bhfiann (2020 Epsom Derby third).

    All things considered, I’ll give him a chance today.

  • Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    The Dante Festival signals the return of the season at York Racecourse. Oaks and Derby trials take place here each week and the racing public pay close attention as often they produce those who find Epsom gold. We kick off the week with two cracking handicaps, a fantastic group sprint race and the Musidora for a midweek Four to Follow.

     

    Champ Of The Knavesmire

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    2:15 – Jorvik Handicap – Marhaba The Champ @ 4/1 (General)

    Northern trainers all do well at York. The Dante and Ebor Festivals are always targeted by those big yards that train in Yorkshire.

    Kevin Ryan is one such individual. Last year Marhaba The Champ won twice on the Knavesmire, during the Dante and Ebor meetings. This horse has been well-targeted to run at those two meetings, and don’t be surprised if he is again this season. Despite some rain, the ground is holding up and can dry out quickly at York, which can bring up win number three for Marhaba.

    Chillingham comes into this race with a great looking handicap mark. He’s been dropped a pound for placing within a length last time out at Ripon, which seems really odd. Despite some near misses on soft ground recently, he has won on firmer once before. The ground should suit and he should be able to make a rather lenient, yet light, drop in the handicap work. 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Saratoga Gold hasn’t had the best of times running since winning at Kempton last year. He also unseated his rider during the Queen Mother Cup at York last year as well. However, he has won on firmer ground over the distance and further. Plus a mark of 88 looks good, considering he’s drawn on the rail. Shortest route to take at 25/1 (General).

     

    Going For Gold

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    2:45 – Churchill Tyres Handicap – Aberama Gold @ 11/1 (William Hill)

    Sprint handicaps at York cannot be beat. So many familiar names turn up and you just sit back and enjoy. Former Steward’s Cup winner Aberama Gold after three wins in big handicaps last season. He is starting to get back into his groove after fishing third at the Craven meeting and the handicapper has dropped him a pound after his last run at the Guineas meeting. This puts him on his last winning mark, and the ground should be to his liking. He’s also drawn near the pace too which makes him a great bet.

    Great Ambassador also looks to be well handicapped for this race. Last season he was mostly see in Group races, but he’s back down to a mark of 97. He won a handicap at Newmarket off that figure on firm ground as well. Plenty of speed should suit him drawn in the middle at 10, drawn next to Hispanic, so could we see him back to winning ways for the first time since 2021? A nice each-way bet at 14/1 (General).

    Monsieur Kodi also looks interesting for Richard Fahey. He found no luck in running at Ripon last time out and the handicapper has dropped him. He was narrowly beaten off a mark of 85 so things might go well for him a pound lower in the weights. He’s stepped back up to a more comfortable six furlongs and won’t mind what ground he gets. Great each-way price at 18/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A-Zure Bet

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    3:15 –1895 Duke Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Azure Blue @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    This is one of the best Group races already this season. Plenty of action and plenty who hold chances. But I’m sticking with the favourite. With Art Power carrying a penalty, and Azure Blue with an allowance, the latter is the top rated in the field. Having won this race last season and acting well at the start of the season. She goes well fresh, so her price makes her look more attractive.

    Washington Heights shockingly won the Abernant. Trainer Kevin Ryan says that he won’t want too much rain, and with firm still in the going, he has every chance to shock them again. Washington Heights has always raced well at York, only beaten twice both by a head. With a horse that won last time out, acts on the ground and a like for the course, 10/1 (General) is a great price.

    Let’s not forget there are a couple of Group One winners in this field. One of them being Khaadem. He begins his defence of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes after winning at 80/1. He enjoys six furlongs better than five, and firm ground. With all of that in mind, a price of 18/1 (BetVictor) doesn’t take into account his Group One pedigree.

     

    What My Friends Call Me…

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    3:45 – Musidora Stakes (Group Three) – Friendly Soul @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    John & Thady Gosden sent last year’s Musidora/Oaks winner Soul Sister off at 18/1. This time they have been found out with an exceptional horse. Friendly Soul routed the field in the Pretty Polly, beating the well-fancied Kalpana in the process and looked like she might go further. Her breeding suggests that this might be her limit, but don’t knock it until you try. She looks tailor-made for the Musidora.

    The very best of luck!

  • York Dante & Lockinge – Ante-post analysis

    York Dante & Lockinge – Ante-post analysis

    Some would call it the first day of the summer, others are just happy to see some good, competitive racing on our TV screens.

    And who could blame them for being excited; the Dante and Lockinge in the same week is always a tremendous sight.

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    As always, I will dive into my best long-range plays for the upcoming week, but only one of them is ante-post due to how the timings of everything happening this week. Apologies, however, the prices are still very decent.

    Trying to roll with the momentum of Call My Bluff’s third in the Chester Cup (advised at 12/1, went off 11/4), here is my look at both York and Newbury this week.

     

    Flying back home

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    The first horse to talk about comes in the opening race of day two at the York Dante Meeting as I’m taking a swing at http://gty.im/540676544  at 12/1 with William Hill.

    The Lindum York Handicap over the fast five furlongs is a competitive race, as would be expected with £18,039 on offer to the winner, but there are a few at the top of the market I would be keen to take on.

    Whenthedealinsdone seems to have his best form on softer ground, the same goes for Designer, and Korker won at York last year but is five pounds higher today.

    Plenty in here could easily hit the frame, but at the top of my list is the Robert Cowell-trained five-year-old sporting the infamous colours of Middleham Park Racing.

    Although he is halfway to double digits in age, he is still relatively lightly raced having not taken to the track until he was a three-year-old.

    He comes into tomorrow fresh having not raced since last September which works well considering he was second to Raasel on seasonal reappearance last year and he won his first two races on the track as a three-year-old; he actually gave away five pounds to Raasel in that Goodwood race before the Michael Appleby competitor would go on to achieve a career-high mark of 108 just two months later.

    As for Clarendon House, he is only three pounds higher than he was at the start of last year and he looks to be well-handicapped with conditions in his favour on Dante day.

     

    The fantastic Foxes

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    I’m sticking with day two at York and it’s the festival’s namesake, the Group 2 Dante Stakes, where I’m heading to next as THE FOXES at 13/2 with William Hill is a good play.

    Firstly, I better mention that I will also be playing DANCING MAGIC at any price north of 20/1 (28/1 is currently available) as he has the ability to step up with this increased distance, however, Andrew Balding’s charge is the main play for me.

    The Churchill three-year-old made a good start to the season in the Craven at Newmarket last month having beaten Dubai Mile, a subsequent Guineas fifth, at HQ at the end of last year.

    He steps up to 1m2f tomorrow, something that suits him best on pedigree as he is a full brother to Aidan O’Brien’s Perotan and is a half-brother to Bangkok, Tactic, and Matterhorn who all got further.

    It’s well known how high connections rate this horse, as shown by his name of ‘The Foxes’ for King Power Racing, and with a few unknowns in the field, he is the horse I like in the Dante.

     

    Live by the Sword

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    And finally, one of the big betting heats of the week is the ultra-competitive London Gold Cup Handicap at Newbury on Saturday and I’m siding with SILVER SWORD at 10/1 with William Hill.

    Early-season three-year-old handicaps are always difficult to decipher as you always have to ask yourself the same questions. Have they trained on? Are they good when fresh? Is the two-year-old form actually that good?

    Luckily, the Dylan Cunha-trained grey answers all of those questions well.

    Firstly, sometimes it’s hard to tell if horses have trained on unless you have seen them yourself, but luckily Silver Sword has already been seen on track this season as he bolted up in a Southwell maiden 32 days ago.

    Furthermore, a scan of his pedigree would also suggest he should be better at three than at two as his sire, Charm Spirit, won three Group 1s as a three-year-old and his damsire, Rip Van Winkle, was a different animal at three thanks to his trio of efforts behind Sea The Stars in the Guineas, Derby, and Eclipse as well as his Sussex Stakes victory at Goodwood.

    Also, a look back at his two-year-old form proves to be a fruitful one as his fifth at odds of 250/1 to Military Order, the Epsom Derby ante-post second favourite, at Newmarket in October and second to Empress Wu, a 12/1 shot for today’s Musidora Stakes, at Lingfield in November reads well for a horse who has been given an opening mark of 82 by the handicapper.

    He is a standout bet in my eyes and hopefully can get Lockinge Day off to a good start.