Best Of Bets

Tag: Willie Mullins

  • FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    FIVE To Follow: Boxing Day Bonanza

    After sleeping off two full plates of Christmas dinner and mince pies galore, we move to the best day of the festive period. Boxing Day. And what a bonanza of racing we have on offer. FIVE Grade One’s from all over the British Isles, and all covered in a special FIVE to Follow.

     

    Kempton

    Auld Lang Syne

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    1:20 – Kauto Star Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Giovinco @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    I have problems with the top two in the market. Hermes Allen has never gone over three miles before. And the French raider Il Est Francais has never gone on anything firmer than very soft.

    The going may prove to catch some of these horses out and Giovinco will relish it. He was unlucky at Sandown with problems being caused by a loose horse, but it’s clear he’s a stayer and a sharper track may be the trick.

     

    Royal Message

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    1:55 – Christmas Hurdle (Grade One) – Sceau Royal @ 16/1 (PLACE) (William Hill)

    Constitution Hill is not only the best hurdler on the planet right now, he’s probably the best there’s going to be for the decade to come. There’s no wonder he’s such short odds, it’s a case of name the distance with him.

    But to get close to him I’ve gone with an old name. Sceau Royal may be an 11-year-old but he’ll still know his way round Kempton Park like the back of his hand. Rubaud has never quite cut the mustard in terms of performances and will be put against the sword by the old master.

     

    Boxing Banker

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    2:30 – King George VI Chase (Grade One) – Allaho @ 7/4 (General)

    Ever since Bravemansgame was beaten twice this season, I doubted he’d actually coming here. I fear that he’s been overraced and won’t be up to the standard we saw him last year. Then the might of Willie Mullins decided to get a look-in. Allaho looks tailor-made for this race, especially with Paul Townend ditching the usual St. Stephen action at Leopardstown. Allaho has won the Punchestown Gold Cup and has always finished with plenty in the tank when winning his two Ryanair’s. He is the one to beat.

    One who I think is very overpriced is a Grade One winner everyone has dismissed. The Real Whacker beat Gerri Colombe in last year’s Brown Advisory and had that form boosted at the start of November. Handicap Company proved a little too much and is in preferred race conditions here. The ground should suit, and I’ve a feeling trainer Patrick Neville has had this race in mind since the start of the season. Certainly worth something at 17/2 (BetVictor, Unibet, Betfred).

     

    Aintree

    Technically The Tolworth

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    1:05 – William Hill Formby Novices’ Hurdle (Grade One) – Farren Glory @ 3/1 (Betfred)

    It’s quite rare we see an Irish raider in this race, but maybe it’s because the Irish don’t have far to travel off the ferry? But we get to see a Grade One winning novice hurdler on our shores before most of ours have had two runs. And Farren Glory looked a real nice type when upsetting the odds at Fairyhouse and beating stablemate King Of Kingsfield by one-and-a-half lengths. It’s quite often these days, we don’t have the best novices anymore.

    One to take advantage of the conditions at a price is Favour And Fortune. It’s clear he has a preference for soft ground, even if he’s versatile on form. There hasn’t been a boost from his win at Wetherby, but many of his rivals would prefer there to be less rain up North. Sadly, they won’t be getting it. He’s worth a poke at double figures, 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Leopardstown

    A St. Stephen Star

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    2:20 – Racing Post Novice Chase (Grade One) – Facile Vega @ 1/3 (General)

    With organisers looking to get rid of one of the three novice chases here, an argument may be given to this one and its lack of runners. Only four turn up for this year’s renewal and no more than seven have turned up for one in the past ten years.

    And with the lack of runners comes the lack of value. Facile Vega will win it simply because of his quality, and the lack of opposition. Sharjah may prove to be useful, even at the ripe old age of 10, and Mullins won’t bother giving a sniff to the two other horses. For better value a tricast on the two Mullins runners, plus Cheltenham winner My Mate Mozzie, may pay something back.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Cheltenham Crackers

    Four To Follow: Cheltenham Crackers

    Cheltenham. Is. Back. And it looms a cracker of a card, and it’s only the first meeting of the season. Plenty of clues with the novice divisions already taking shape, and some handicaps to savour too. Plus we, might, have the final Group One on the flat at Doncaster that may see an upset on the boggy ground. It’s Saturday, it’s Four to Follow.

    Lord Almighty

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    2:25 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Lord Accord @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Neil Mulholland’s star won this race last year, and is back to do it all again on the Old Course. The big statistic that has made him been backed in, is he is only one pound higher than last year’s mark. The ground will not be a bother, and his running style suits the trip and course to a T. I just can’t look past him, even if he might be too short for a handicap.

    Twig is another to consider for the Ben Pauling team, who had an emotional winner with Mole Court yesterday. Twig has won his last tow starts, over both hurdle and chase classes, at this level. The handicap has given him a five pound rise, which Beau Morgan immediately takes off with the claim. The ground is good, whilst a little rain softened, which is perfect for a nice swing at 9/1 (William Hill).

    And with extra places on offer with bookmakers, the third pick is an Irish raider. Henry de Bromhead and Gordon Elliott always bring a string over to every Cheltenham meeting, and they’re not just there for peanuts. De Bromhead saddles Whacker Clan who won’t mind the good-ish ground, despite a win on soft ground last time out. Down in the handicap and a big price at 16/1 (William Hill).

    A New Pick

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    3:00 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle – Hugos New Horse @ 15/2 (Unibet)

    Ah, the Pertemps. One of jumps racing’s greatest creations. But I can’t really understand why Hugos New Horse is as big as he is. He’s only been raised two pounds for a rather convincing win at Ayr on his final start last season and makes him quite well handicap. In the colours of the Stewart Family, which carries some credibility, Paul Nicholls can get a Cheltenham winner on the board with this eye-catcher.

    Syd Hosie had an incredible win on Trials Day last year with Rock My Way, which prompted some wild celebrations in the winners’ enclosure. Fate didn’t repeat itself at the Festival but comes to this race well handicapped. Whilst he might not have won on ‘good’, it might ride a little softer today which will benefit. He loves Cheltenham, and is worth to take on at 14/1 (BetVictor)

    And I can’t really get past Party Business at 18/1 (Betfred). He’s coming off a run and a wind operation but is a regular runner over good-to-soft ground. He’s been waiting to get an attractive mark it looks lie he’s got it. He’s two pounds higher than his previous winning mark, which was at Aintree in 2022, and he could run a big race here.

    Eh Laddie

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    3:45 – William Hill Novices’ Hurdle – Lisnamult Lad @ 6/1 (General)

    Whilst Antrim Coast is odds-on for beating a non-favourite Willie Mullins horse last time out (And the Keith Donoghue Cheltenham factor), I’m unsure why John McConnell’s horse is 6/1. The trainer has sent the winner out twice in the last three years, and this horse seems like a wild thing. Three out of four over hurdles, his last two winning margins are a combined 44 ½ lengths. He has licence to step up in trip and can overturn the market.

    Doing A Donny Rain Dance

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    Doncaster 2:10 – KAMEKO Futurity Trophy (Group One) – Dancing Gemini @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    This meeting could be called off, so ignore this if it is. But I still think that Dancing Gemini would still win in the swimming turf. Breeding-wise, Camelot won the Irish Derby on soft/heavy ground and won the Flying Scotsman on soft ground by 4 ½ lengths. Ice Max is the only one who has franked the form, but form goes out the window when the ground gets as bottomless as it is in South Yorkshire.

    Just keep an eye out for Devil’s Point at 22/1 (888Sport). David Menusier won a Group One 2-Y-O race at Saint-Cloud on Sunday, and Devil’s Point has heavy ground in his breeding thanks to New Bay. He can run a big race on bottomless.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

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    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

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    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

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    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

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    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day One: Selections and Naps

    It’s that time of year. The sun is shining, the suits are hired, it must be Royal Ascot. Top hats galore and top-class action from all around the world. Australia and America join in today, along with British and Irish. Day One is set to be a cracker. Here are my selections and naps for the one of the best meetings of the Summer.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    PADDINGTON TO BEAR THE BRUNT

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    NAP: St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    There are many races this week which punters are saying are ‘the races of the week’. This is one of them, with the English and Irish Guineas winners facing off. Chaldean is 3lbs higher than his Irish counter-part, 119 to 116. But there is one thing that lets the Frankel colt down. The draw. Since the turn of the millennium, four winners have come from stall one. Many horses are boxed in on the rail and haven’t room to move. Paddington is drawn wide in eight, and if he can get a better start he had in the Irish Guineas, he’ll be hard to get past. Read more on his chances on Best Of Bets.

    Keep an eye out for Indestructible, the Craven winner. He’s already tipped up on Best of Bets, and he isn’t without hope. He underperformed in the English Guineas but has been kept fresh for this race. Firm ground will suit him, given he won by five-and-a-half lengths as a two-year-old on the surface, and a good outside draw in stall nine. 50/1 (General) seems overpriced.

    And don’t discount Isaac Shelby, who’s a decent each-way price of 9/1 (General). He won the Greenham Stakes, where Chaldean unseated. He almost made up for it when narrowly losing in the French Guineas. The ground will be a little firmer, and could go well, with a half-decent draw in stall three.

    PERFECT STORM IN THE COVENTRY

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    E/W BET: Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Cuban Thunder @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)

    I feel Cuban Thunder is overlooked. He’s experienced enough with two races under his belt, including a win last time out, which came in the Frank Whittle Partnership Conditions Stakes. Lusail, Repartee and Queen Olly are recent winners of the race who haven’t had bad careers since then. Dominic Ffrench Davis has a good record when prepping Amo Racing’s two-year-olds. Kevin Stott has chosen to ride Bucanero Fuerte, but Rossa Ryan isn’t a bad substitute. Stand-side draw might be where the winners come on the straight course this week, worth to keep an eye on.

    MOORE AND MULLINS TO BRING IT

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    Handicap Best: Ascot Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Bring On The Night @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill)

    Willie Mullins is operating at a 57% strike rate. Over the jumps, in the off season. He’s a genius. He has a good record at the Royal meeting as well with four winners in this race. Those four winners came in a period of six years between 2012 – 2018. Ryan Moore was on three of them. Moore is currently operating at a 33% strike rate and has also won leading rider at Royal Ascot nine times. Bring On The Night has been raised 4lbs since last year’s second, and hasn’t been seen since. Bring on the Ascot Stakes I say!

    Keep an eye out for Themaxwecan who loves the firmer ground. He raced in last year’s race, finishing midfield off a mark of 97. After that race he went and won a race at Ascot over two miles on firm ground with Jamie Spencer on board. This time he’s 92, 5lbs lower than last year’s mark. He hasn’t got a great record over two miles, but with a good mark and good conditions he could certainly get a place at 40/1 (General)

     

    Selections:

    14:30 – Queen Anne Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Modern Games @ 9/4 (Unibet, William Hill), Chindit e/w @ 14/1 (William Hill)
    15:05 – Coventry Stakes (Group Two) – Givemethebeatboys @ 4/1 (Unibet, William Hill, BetUK), CUBAN THUNDER E/W @ 50/1 (Betfred, William Hill)
    15:40 – King’s Stand Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Highfield Princess @ 5/2 (Unibet), Twilight Gleaming e/w @ 25/1 (Boylesports)

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    16:20 – St James’s Palace Stakes (GROUP ONE) – PADDINGTON (NAP) @ 5/2 (William Hill, BetVictor), Indestructible e/w @ 50/1 (General)
    17:00 – Ascot Stakes (Heritage H’cap) BRING ON THE NIGHT @ 9/4 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill), Themaxwecan e/w @ 40/1 (General)
    17:35 – Wolfreton Stakes (Listed) – Francesco Clemente @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor)
    18:10 – Copper Horse Handicap – Absurde @ 6/1 (Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham 2023: The Cheltenham 5: Galopin Des Champs

    Cheltenham 2023: The Cheltenham 5: Galopin Des Champs

    As we build up to the big off on Tuesday, there is surely no bigger draw during festival week than the Boodles Cheltenham Gold Cup.

    One year off its centenary this year, previous winners stand as the very cream of the Sport of Kings.

    Arkle, L’Escargot and more recently Best Mate, Kauto Star and Denman grace the halls of glory from this epic showdown.

    This year, the contenders are lining up once more but will it be Galopin De Champs to seal Gold Cup glory in 2023?

    Cheltenham heartbreak

    Rewind to Cheltenham last year and Galopin Des Champs looked well set for a second successive festival win.

    After victory in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle in 2021, Willie Mullins waited to pouch yet another Cheltenham victory.

    Indeed, for 15 of the 16 fences in the Turner Novices’ Chase, the double was in the bag.

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    But as Mullins’ 6yo climbed over the final hurdle with a 12-length lead as 5/6f, Galopin Des Champs landed awkwardly, stumbled and fell in dramatic scenes.

    Leaving the trailing Bob Olinger and Rachael Blackmore to pick up the pieces, Cheltenham was left stunned.

    For Jockey Paul Townend and all involved, it was a bitter pill of defeat to swallow.

    Yet, after woe 12 months back, the French gelding looks primed to deliver a year on.

    In fact, Galopin Des Champs looks close to one of the shoo-ins of the festival.

    Mullins’ magic touch

    From his first outing, Galopin Des Champs looked bound for greatness.

    Mullins knew it also, catching his eye on home debut at Auteuil just six months into his career.

    Prepped with hopes for later in the season, Galopin was given runs at Gowran Park, Limerick and Leopardstown.

    It was in the latter race at a price of 100/1, he came a hugely creditable sixth. The penny dropped.

    Going off at 8/1 in his Cheltenham bow, Sean O Keeffe picked a steady trip and held off the similarly priced Langer Dan to take the winning post.

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    As Mullins’ number one jockey, Townend then took the reins for the trip back to Ireland for the Irish Novice Hurdle.

    The 11-length victory margin was emphatic.

    When Galopin Des Champs then began the 2021 season with a Leopardstown double, the Turners’ seemed to be academic.

    But destiny dealt a cruel blow from the jaws of victory.

    Galopin Des Champs courting destiny?

    But could fate bite back this year?

    Once more, Galopin arrives at Cheltenham looking to take his streak to four on the bounce.

    Irish dominance has been the fulcrum of success but it would unfair to class this French gentleman as a bad traveller even if there is little evidence in his defence.

    There will be just an element of doubt in the mind however, that since debut just one win has come away from his adopted shores of the Emerald Isle.

    The fact remains though, that in eight outings since Cheltenham 2021, just once have the spoils of victory not been sampled.

    With wins by 18, 13 and most recently, eight lengths on the slate, yes, Noble Yeats will have eyes on a Gold Cup-Grand National double but the sporting gods may be on hand.

    It may also be true that A Plus Tard will not surrender the crown lightly either; but Galopin Des Champs is very much the horse to beat to the festival’s most prized trophy.