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Tag: Willie Mullins

  • Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Galopin Des Champs On Precipice of Greatness

    Cheltenham Festival 2025 | Galopin Des Champs On Precipice of Greatness

    Best Mate. Arkle. Just two horses in the post-war era of arguably Cheltenham’s biggest race have achieved the Gold Cup triple. In just two days’ time, Galopin Des Champs can enter that elite role of honour.

    As the final day of Cheltenham once more sees the Blue Riband contest of jump-racing close out the festival, this year’s contest carries with it significantly more weight, ready to etch a mark in racing history.

    So can Willie Mullins’ 9yo become a true racing legend?

    Legend

    Not since Jim Culloty rode home Best Mate to a half-a-length win over 33/1 shot Sir Rembrandt in 2004, has the racing world seen a three-time consecutive Cheltenham Gold Cup winner.

    Henrietta Knight’s gelding whose sudden death in 2005 left the racing world stunned, was the most romantic of Gold Cup winners some 21 years ago, after surging over the final two fences and fending off the opposition.

    However, as Galopin Des Champs lines up for his fifth Festival outing, a fourth win would bring the house down.

    A staple of the annual early spring pilgrimage to Gloucestershire, as Ruby Walsh wrote in the Racing Post a fortnight ago, Galopin Des Champs could become Mullins’ very own Frankel.

    Redemption

    Galopin Des Champs’ Cheltenham tale is by and a large a happy one. But like the very best horse racing has seen down the years, the story has required a healthy dose of battle.

    In the case of the French-bred, Irish-trained thoroughbred, that came on his second appearance at the festival in 2022.

    A year on from taking a victorious Cheltenham bow as a lesser-known 5yo in the Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys’ Handicap Hurdle, horse and jockey Paul Townend were heavy 5/6 favourites in a reduced field on just four.

    Having dominated the race for large portions, the then-6yo encountered a few nervy moments over the hurdles but by the final flight was a full 12 lengths ahead.

    Then jumping the last, to the horror of many a fan and punter and the somewhat muffled joy of every bookie, the clear leader clipped the fence and hit the deck to a cacophony of gasps from the stands. Bob Olinger and Rachael Blackmore politely skirted the fallen horse and cantered home to unlikely glory.

    It was a tough pill to swallow.

    Winding the clock forward 12 months later, Galopin Des Champs was again the marginal pick for Gold Cup glory, by then having picked up four Grade 1 winners, including the Irish Gold Cup at Leopardstown the month before.

    But the questions remained: could Townend get his gelding across the line and erase the wounds of the year previous? The answer was emphatic.

    Staying out of trouble during the race, A Plus Tard and Blackmore laboured, whilst Bravemansgame and Harry Cobden could not sustain the pace.

    Approaching the last again holding a sizeable lead, collective breaths were held, but lighting was not to strike twice, sailing over the barrier, and on to victory, in front of the jubilant crowd watching.

    Dream duo

    With such a mental block overcome, Galopin Des Champs has gone on to become one of the best around, poised now on the verge of true greatness.

    Having last month won a third consecutive Irish Gold Cup – only the second after Florida Pearl in 2001 – Cheltenham history beckons for the champ and his trusty steed. Indeed, jockey Townend and his running mate have been a love story from the very beginning.

    On board for his Irish debut in November 2020, the two were runners-up behind Sea Ducor at Gowran Park, then stepping aside for duties elsewhere, before being reunited for the 6yo’s second Grade 1 contest.

    A month on from Galopin Des Champs’ debut win at Cheltenham in the Martin Pipe, it was then a first taste of home glory at Punchestown for Townend and his trusty steed in the Irish Novice Hurdle, thrashing Gentlemansgame by 12 lengths. The rest, by and large, is history.

    The two have been inseparable in the 16 races since, winning 11 times – all Group 1 races.

    Historic

    Since his Cheltenham Gold Cup win in 2023, Galopin Des Champs has exhibited few chinks in his armour. In fact, his only kryptonite seems, somewhat surprisingly, to be on Irish soil.

    Away from his fall at the last in the Turners’ in 2022, all four of the gelding’s losses have fascinatingly come either side of the last two terms; two each in both Punchestown Chase and Gold Cup – thrice to Martin Brassil’s Ultima runner-up, Fastorslow.

    His last four trips to County Kildare have all failed to bare fruit, but the picture at Cheltenham is a different one, albeit with still very little relative experience to his rivals on the Gloucestershire course.

    Having already cruised to the Mares’ Hurdle earlier this week with Lossiemouth, this is arguably Paul Townend’s biggest ride of his festival and may very well be one of his career bookmarks.

    Ironically, it is Banbridge – who Townend rode to victory in the King George VI on Boxing Day at Kempton – that stands as his biggest rival. However, as his surging powers at Leopardstown proved last time out, that will take some doing.

    Destiny beckons for Galopin Des Champs in the Cheltenham Gold Cup. The world, and history is watching.

  • Ebor Festival 2024 | Versatile Vauban Eyes Lonsdale Cup

    Ebor Festival 2024 | Versatile Vauban Eyes Lonsdale Cup

    With the Juddmonte and Yorkshire Oaks in the books, Ebor 2024 rolls into Friday and as a taster for the Nunthorpe main event later on, Vauban is looking to make a mark in the Lonsdale Cup.

    One of the longer trips of the Festival, the distance just a fraction over 2m is one for the Group 2 stayers, as the British Champions Series heads full-steam toward the end of the season.

    A race won in previous editions by Coltrane, the bolt-up Quickthorn in 2022 and three times by the mighty Stradivarius, this contest has separated the colts from the geldings.

    So could Vauban be the latest entrant into the race’s winner’s circle and hand trainer Willie Mullins a second race win?

     

    Making the switch

    The notion of jumps runners switching to the flat has often been scoffed at, but Vauban has been something of trailblazer in that regard.

    Having spent his maiden year in France on the flat, the 6yo French gelding looked to have made the switch over hurdles a permanent one.

    However, after back-to-back four-race terms, the son of Galiway could not recapture his first season of transition, winning the Triumph Hurdle and Ballymore Champion 4YO Hurdle in the space of a month in early 2023.

    It was earlier this year as a runner-up at Punchestown in looking to complete a Champion Hurdle successive double, Vauban already had his eyes on Royal Ascot.

    And with Willie Mullins in the yard, preparations seldom are in better shape.

    Not least as a man with one victory in this race already under the belt – which, for a jumps trainer is no mean feat – but who has made becoming a UK turf maestro his goal during the last two terms.

    Indeed, making his first flat outing in just under two years at the Royal Meet in 2023, Vauban surged to victory in the Copper Horse. He had not missed a beat.

    Yet, Group 1 success still eludes him on his racing code of choice.

    It has been four races in the space of a year since his last win but now, with Vauban and Mullins showing no intention of returning to the jumps, the signs are there a big result could be coming.

    Finishing well down the field in November’s Melbourne Cup, a spirited fourth in the Ascot Gold Cup pointed at a changing of fortune.

    So, could the Lonsdale Cup be a step back in the right direction?

     

    Contenders

    The bookies rate Vauban’s chances highly this week at 3/1 with William Hill, but an already red-hot this week, Aidan O’Brien and Ryan Moore duo are a sizeable obstacle in the way.

    Point Lonsdale is also looking for a way back to the elite, and is set to be installed as 9/4 pre-race favourite for a contest aptly named.

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    Having broken a winless drought since last year’s May Festival – coincidentally at Chester – AP O’Brien ran him at Saint Cloud last time out, resulting in a third place finish.

    Point Lonsdale has the breeding of former Juddmonte winner, Australia, but can he replicate his father’s run of a decade ago?

    A third runner here, and another to fall to the mighty Kyprios in June’s Gold Cup, Gregory, is again back for more.

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    Put Gregory on soft, good or firm ground, the results have quite simply not come, but with Quickthorn the likely pace angle here, punters are quietly fancying Gregory’s chances in a dash to the post.

    An excellent price we might look at finally, Alsakib won the John Smith’s Silver Cup when last running the Knavesmire, having come fourth in the Copper Horse.

    Though there might be concerns of the baked ground, punters could do worse than to back Andrew Balding’s 4yo at a steady 10/1 price with BetVictor.

     

    The Weatherbys Hamilton Lonsdale Cup Stakes takes place on Friday at 2:25pm UK time.

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ‘sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.

    Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.

    We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.

     

    2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.

    The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.

    On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.

    They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.

    It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.

    If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.

    The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).

    He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.

    Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.

    He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.

    Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.

    Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.

    He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.

    Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.

    Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.

    Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.

    On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

    As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.

    On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.

    She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.

    She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.

    Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.

    Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.

    As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.

    George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)

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    I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.

    Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ‘hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.

    He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.

    There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.

    The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.

    As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.

    That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.

    Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.

    Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.

  • Scottish Grand National 2024 | Three Willie Mullins considerations for Ayr

    Scottish Grand National 2024 | Three Willie Mullins considerations for Ayr

    After last weekend’s Randox Grand National at Aintree, Saturday sees Ayr take the baton for the Coral Scottish Grand National and Willie Mullins could again be in the frame.

    Won last year by Kitty’s Light – a fifth-placed finisher in Liverpool – the Ayrshire showpiece is becoming a bigger pointer of future stayers than ever.

    For Mullins, the king of Closutton can cap another sensational term on UK soil after Paul Townend’s stunning win on I Am Maximus.

    Having sealed a second Grand National win, Mullins can make it a double swoop away from home.

    But with a total of six entries, which three look the best punt?

     

    Spanish turn – (17/2 w/Betfred)

    At the top of the markets, both Spanish Harlem and Macdermott are pushing newly-installed favourite Git Maker as SP fancy, but it is the former who looks the more appealing.

    After finally ending his long wait to ride a Grand National winner, Paul Townend looks to tick one of the few remaining boxes off on his card, the Scottish equivalent.

    On a rare visit to Ayr, Spanish Harlem is getting some real punter interest in the final hours before the race.

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    On of the youngest entries, the 6yo made his debut only 10 months ago but his record is more than decent.

    However, this will be the sternest test to date of a fledging race career.

    Having won as a debutant in native France, Spanish Harlem has gone seven without a win, but has been at worst third in all but one of those contests – his only non finish was being pulled up in the Martin Pipe at Cheltenham last year.

    With a run of 3-3-3 this season, this will be a sizeable step-up in trip, but the whispers around the Mullins camp say he can make the jump.

    We are inclined to agree.

     

    A ‘Credible take? (11/1 w/Unibet)

    Meanwhile, despite two failed attempts in marquee outings this year, Mr Incredible remains a draw.

    Finishing runner-up to Beauport in the Midlands National, the 8yo has no concerns over distance, which may apply to a number of runners here.

    Mr Incredible was unfortunate to unseat Brian Hayes last weekend, having recovered from a faltering start.

    Furthermore, on ground which looks similar to the going at Cheltenham from his third place in the Kim Muir, Mr Incredible can make a mark.

    Now more than used to the trip, over fewer and less challenging fences, Paddy Mullins can take his mount one step further than last month.

     

    Wan to watch (33/1 w/BetUK)

    Further down the weights, Mullins could have a handy hoper in We’llhavewan.

    Though more of a heavy ground performer, the 9yo gelding has won two of his last five.

    Sire of former Prix De Paris winner, Imperial Monarch, the draw of We’llhavewan is not just his name, but his versatility – on paper at least.

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    Wins have come not only in the mire, but also on yielding/soft turf and took home victory on good ground at Ballinrobe last May.

    Not only that, the gelding also ticks a bit of a box with his last four trips over 3m+, last time out over 3m5f in the Irish National at Fairyhouse.

    Grabbing a final sixth place there, We’llhavewan might just put on a better show in Ayr.

     

    The 2024 Coral Scottish Grand National takes place at Ayr on Saturday, race time 15:35 BST.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | El Fabiolo

    Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | El Fabiolo

    As Cheltenham 2024 inches ever closer, El Fabiolo looks to etch his name into the pantheon of National Hunt legends.

    Last year’s Arkle winner, El Fabiolo this time goes in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, locking horns with old nemesis Jonbon.

    Undefeated in seven races, Willie Mullins will be confident of retaining his grip on the race Energumene won back-to-back since 2022.

    Returning for his second Festival appearance, is 4/9 El Fabiolo bound for greatness?

     

    Cusp of legend

    Just how good is El Fabiolo? This year’s March trip to Gloucestershire may reveal the answer.

    A date to ponder; April 8 2022; just under a month shy of two years.

    That was the last time the French gelding tasted defeat, coming in the Betway Top Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree.

    His conqueror on that day? A certain Jonbon.

    Since that early spring afternoon however, El Fabiolo has a clean slate.

    Avenging that very loss to Nicky Henderson’s runner 12 months ago as 11/10f, the 7yo now has four Grade 1 wins under the belt.

    Since his winning Cheltenham debut last year, ‘El Fabi’ has claimed the Castle Novice, Hilly Way and Dublin Chase crowns.

    In comparison, Jonbon’s record of late is far from glowing for a horse of such ilk.

    The gelding, a year senior, has fumbled over jumps this season and was unsure in the Tingle Creek.

    Pivotally, the 8yo’s loss in the Clarence House Chase to 22/1 Elixir Du Nutz felt damaging.

    Indeed, his 10/3 price with William Hill looks shaky.

     

    Small field

    With a fair amount of uncertainty over the going for the week, the current field of eight could be further whittled down come Wednesday.

    Turf ahead of Saturday inspection was good to soft, but is forecast to be soft for midweek.

    However, that could again change depending on varying weather predictions.

    So, realistically, are there any rivals to either El Fabiolo or Jonbon?

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    A former Arkle winner himself, Edwardstone has not enjoyed the best of years, but only a fool would write his chances off.

    Interestingly, Edwardstone has inflicted more losses on Jonbon than El Fabiolo has.

    However, Alan King’s 10yo will need a good deal more rain before Wednesday.

    Age may not be on his side, and to add to the mix, Edwardstone has not won a Grade 1 since the 2022 Tingle Creek.

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    Elixir Du Nutz we already touched on after beating Jonbon last time out, but what of Captain Guinness‘ hopes?

    A 14/1 gambit himself with Betfred, the 9yo of Henry De Bromhead’s biggest win to date was a Grade 2 at Navan at the start of the season.

    Captain Guinness was third to both El Fabiolo and Dinoblue in the Dublin Chase, but of just a small dash of intrigue, pushed Jonbon quite hard in the bet365 Celebration Chase to end last season.

    The ingredients are in place for another red-hot Champion Chase come Wednesday, but on paper, the field will have to go some to take down El Fabiolo.

     

    El Fabiolo looks for a second Cheltenham Festival crown in the Queen Mother Champion Chase, Wednesday, 15:30 GMT.

  • Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | Lossiemouth

    Cheltenham 2024 | The Cheltenham Triple | Lossiemouth

    As the Cheltenham Festival arrives once again, Willie Mullins looks primed for more success in the shape of Lossiemouth.

    Making a return to the Festival from her JCB Triumph Hurdle win last year, Lossiemouth and Paul Townend have gone from strength to strength as a duo.

    With further Grade 1 success at Punchestown in the Ballymore 4-YO-Hurdle, the mare comes here off a wholly impressive Unibet Hurdle win at Cheltenham in January.

    On paper, a 1/2 heavy favourite this week, everything is lined up in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle.

    However, could Lossiemouth yet be swayed by glory in the Champion Hurdle?

     

    Opportunity knocks?

    The news of Constitutional Hill’s untimely withdrawal due to a lung infection came as a huge blow to both organisers and punters alike.

    But, with Nicky Henderson’s misfortune, could Willie Mullins land an opportune Cheltenham blow?

    Yes, another one.

    Set to swerve the main event of Day 1, Lossiemouth has now been given quite the dangling carrot.

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    It could also present Paul Townend with a quandary.

    With State Man now one of the shortest-price runners this year at 1/3, Lossiemouth is nearest in the betting at a reversal of 3/1 – a full six point difference.

    For now however, with only hours to go until the flag drops on the Festival, plans remain for the Mares’ race.

     

    Triumph Hurdle knock-on?

    If, as expected, Lossiemouth sticks to Plan A, there is an element of great intrigue on the menu.

    Both runner-up and third places to Lossiemouth in last year’s Triumph Hurdle are set for another crack at the queen.

    In the case of the latter, 25/1 Zenta put in a hugely game effort before being pipped for third by Gala Marceau.

    Meanwhile, Gala Marceau, despite being the bridesmaid last year, remains the only horse to beat Lossiemouth in seven career races.

    That was in a Spring Juvenile Hurdle at Leopardstown last February.

    The 5yo mare arrives at Cheltenham with two third places in the Yorkshire Mares’ and Quevaga Mares’ Hurdle.

     

    A Diamond; a returning hope

    Meanwhile, Ashroe Diamond – who beat Gala Marceau last time out at Doncaster – is currently the closest market rival at 7/2 with BetUK.

    Beaten just once in four trips, a third contest around the 2m4f mark will be familiar ground.

    Yet, beaten in stronger company in the Grace Hurdle, this particular Diamond must up her game.

    Outside of the two market leaders, double-figure odds greet punters.

    What of the 9/4jf in this very contest last year, Marie’s Rock?

    Labouring home to finish seventh in Honeysuckle’s fitting send-off, Nicky Henderson looks to keep the crown against the odds.

    This time around 12/1 hopes may look fleeting, but the 2022 winner on the same ground, Marie’s Rock might have better fortune.

     

    Bigger punts

    Down the list of bigger prices, Hispanic Moon is not without e/w chances.

    Having also beaten Gala Marceau last time out in the aforementioned Quevaga, Henry De Bromhead’s contender has pedigree.

    Hispanic Moon is half-brother to none other than El Fabiolo, sire of former flat specialist, Spanish Moon.

    A belting 25/1 shot with Unibet, the 7yo’s effort last time out was gutsy.

    In conditions that will likely be far kinder, Hispanic Moon will have her braver backers.

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    Finally, You Wear It Well looks to double-up from Cheltenham last year and seal a rare feat.

    Victorious in the Jack De Bromhead Mares’ Novices over Magical Zoe – also running here – Jamie Snowden’s girl’s last win took down the very able Luccia on season debut.

    Could lightning strike twice in Gloucestershire? A 33/1 price with BetVictor says it can.

     

    Lossiemouth is set to ride in the Close Brothers Mares’ Hurdle on Tuesday 13 March at 16:10 GMT.

  • Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    With Warwick and Uttoxeter, it really is a Super Saturday at Newbury today. We’ve got star quality with Shishkin in the Denman and the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle with trainers from both sides of the Irish Sea looking to land the big pot. Here’s four to look out for on the card in Berkshire today.

     

    Super Sam

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    2:05 – Denman Chase (Grade Two) – Sam Brown @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    With heavy ground setting the precedent for the day, it makes sense to back the mud-lovers. Despite Shishkin being odds-on, he got pulled on heavy ground when it was similar ground at Sandown back in December. Nicky Henderson has said he will not pull the horse due to the ground, but we’ve seen it happen before.

    Protektorat hasn’t won a race in over a year, Hitman can’t travel three miles and Does He Know won’t act on the ground. It makes sense to back Sam Brown after his Classic Chase demolition on soft ground at Warwick last month. A three-time winner on heavy ground has seen his odds slash in half and it makes sense to back him against a vulnerable Shishkin.

     

    Surprise result

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    2:40 – Game Spirit Chase (Grade Two) – Boothill @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    With Editeur Du Gite confirmed to be pulled, four runners will go to post for a rather lacklustre renewal of the Game Spirit Chase. Edwardstone drops back to two miles after disappointing in the Silviniaco Conti Chase, but the ground looks as though is against him as it will be for his other three opponents.

    There’s only one pound in favour for Edwardstone over Boothill and Amarillo Sky. Amarillo Sky hasn’t run since last year’s Champion Chase, and Boothill is by far the most successful horse in the field. Despite the ground being as testing as it is, Boothill could spring a surprise in the mud against a top two-mile chaser.

     

    French fancy

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    3:15 – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Ocastle Des Mottes @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When Willie Mullins brings one over, for a big handicap, heads do turn. The fact this is a French arrival, and a good one at that, turns even more heads. Despite after a break of over 230 days, Ocastle Des Mottes will be fully prepared for the challenge. Plus, his previous form on heavy ground in France will benefit him massively.

    Spirit D’Aunou will relish this ground. Two out of his last three wins have come on testing surfaces. And despite being raised 10lbs, and second in the weights, the ground will override those factors. Gary Moore has been focused on this race for him, the fact the ground has come up heavy is a massive plus. 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports) seems fair, but it could be backed in the morning.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times in the last ten years. Five out of the last ten years have been double figure prices. If you follow those simple trends, you’ll find Norman Fletcher. His last win came on heavy ground and was convincing. This is his first time in this company, and he comes in under the radar at a rather low weight. If he wins at 25/1 (General), we won’t be stuck eating porridge.

     

    Bumper bonus

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    4:25 – Beacons Bumper (NHF Race, Listed) – Union Avenue @ 4/1 (General)

    In a race I wouldn’t usually tip, there’s a few things I like about Union Avenue. Firstly, Jimmy Moffat is bringing this horse down from Cumbria, which must mean he thinks a lot about this horse. Secondly, the trainer is a soft ground merchant. Out of his 18 winners, with five on heavy going. Thirdly, Union Avenue finished behind a certain Captain Bellamy on his final point-to-point start, with the form franked when he won at Chepstow in October.

    The very best of luck

  • Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    Four To Follow: Dublin Racing Festival – Day One

    We head to Dublin for Ireland’s biggest weekend in racing. All the stable stars come out to strut their stuff before they stuff the British at Cheltenham. It’s always a good indicator to see where each Willie Mullins runner will be heading to in March, but there is a bit of value to be found in the slightly more open novice races. Plus there’s a decent card at Sandown to keep an eye on in today’s Four To Follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Grades Count

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    1:20 – Nathaniel Lacy & Partners Solicitors Novice Hurdle (Grade 1) – Loughglynn @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    It’s telling which horse Paul Townend picks to ride in each race for Mullins, and the market is always keen to latch on. I feel though, he’s chosen the wrong horse. Predators Gold hasn’t raced above two-and-a-half miles and was beaten, in heavy ground, last time out. The inexperience may show here.

    Loughglynn is a far more accomplished novice. His win at Grade Two level at Limerick over Christmas showed that this horse has an engine to stay. It won’t be as boggy as Limerick, so has momentum to build on from his maiden win at Punchestown. Well backed Jetara has been running against the girls so far and might find this race a bit too hot.

     

    Mullins & McManus

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    1:50 – Spring Juvenile Hurdle (Grade One) – Majborough @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Once again Townend has opted to go for the Gigginstown colours in Storm Heart, who looked like a Grade One juvenile when obliterating his rivals in the mud.

    But there was talk of Majborough early in the season and I’ve been excited to see this horse appear. It’s a sign you’re a good horse when JP McManus buys you. It’s even better when he sends you to Closutton. It becomes even more exciting when you’re first race in Ireland is in a Grade One. If that’s how much connections think of him, there must be something in the water.

     

    Sandown

    Patron Only

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    2:35 – Scilly Isles’ Novices’ Chase (Grade One) – Le Patron @ 7/2 (General)

    Le Patron is the only Grade One winner in the field. And despite Harry Cobden saying that Hermes Allen was at his best in the Kauto Star on Boxing Day, he still got beat. Le Patron won in bottomless over two miles, but he seemed at his best when winning over C&D back in November. JPR One gave the form a boost when winning the Lightning Novices’ Chase at Lingfield a couple of weeks ago.

    The other big trend is that Paul Nicholls hasn’t won this race since 2009 and it’s unclear if this will be a stepping stone for Hermes Allen to the Festival. This is a race that Le Patron has been trained for.

     

    Racing West

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    3:10 – Heroes Handicap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – West Balboa @ 8/1 (Betfred)

    West Balboa always comes alive in handicaps at this level, and she seems primed once more. After finishing way back in the Long Walk field, she’s had a rest and is back under top weight. Tristan Durell takes off a crucial three pounds to make her mark a little more accessible and she can out race this field in these conditions, which could set her up nicely for a shot at the Pertemps.

    Good Luck Charm was an outside chance in the Lanzarote at Kempton but outran her odds to finish fourth and within a length to favourite Impose Toi. Stepped up in distance, she remains on the same mark and is weighted towards the very bottom of the field. She’s been priced more fairly at 10/1 (Boylesports) but has a huge chance of running to them this time around.

    Equinus won by five lengths at Aintree way back in October and has had some respectable finishes in class two company. James Turner has been booked once again, and conditions will suit the Nigel Twiston-Davies horse. Extra places will useful if backing this horse at 20/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    Four To Follow: Presse-ing On

    With a big freeze in the UK wiping out the much anticipated Clarence House, it’s a relief to have a good jumps card live at Lingfield for their Winter Million meeting. L’Homme Presse makes his seasonal comeback and could shake up the Gold Cup market with a statement win. Plus action over at Thurles too.

     

    Lingfield

    Hakuna…

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    1:15 – Lightning Novices’ Chase (Grade Two) – Matata @ 5/2 (General)

    This race has been switched from Doncaster to Lingfield, and yesterday confirmed the news that this race could be going to either Windsor or Ascot in 2025. But it can be an informative race for the Arkle, but this doesn’t look like a renewal that will cause any problems to ante-post favourite Marine Nationale.

    Having said that, it’s a competitive race and my money’s on the mare Matata. She performed admirably at Cheltenham on New Year’s Day in Handicap Company, only down by a length at the line. Her allowance puts her up as the best rated horse in the race and conditions will suit too.

     

    Presse Or Protekt?

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    3:00 – Fleur De Lys Chase – L’Homme Presse @ 8/11 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Only established as a race last year, this could be a graded race in the near future and answer some questions in the Gold Cup puzzle. The intermediate trip could be a good proving ground for those who have the potential to stay and those who needs to drop back.

    One horse who doesn’t have that problem is L’Homme Presse. He hasn’t been seen since the 2022 King George and has bided his time to work his way back into the fray. Going on his novice form, he should outclass the struggling Protektorat, who has had a dismal season. Kim Bailey’s Does He Know hated the ground at Wetherby, and is overpriced to finish behind L’Homme Presse for me at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Thurles

    Haughty Taughty

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    1:05 – Irish EBF Mares Novice Chase (Grade Two) – Hauturiere @ Evs (William Hill)

    It may not look the most attractive race, but when you dig a bit deeper it’s a two-horse race. Hauturiere doesn’t just have the Mullins advantage, but acts better on yielding ground than most of the field, who act better on softer ground. Silent Approach will make it a test after her efforts in a similar race at Cork in November. But Hauturiere should have the edge here

     

    Hattrick Hero?

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    1:35 – Horse & Jockey Hotel Chase (Grade Two) – Allaho @ Evs (William Hill, Betfred)

    After Allaho’s disappointment in the King George, it makes sense to drop him back in trip in a race he’s won twice before. It’s a clear sign that Allaho will go to the Ryanair, but it’s no guarantee he’ll be favourite, or have the race at his mercy.

    Appreciate It looks best place to give him a tough challenge. Despite having not won over fences since January 2023, it’s been tricky to find Appreciate It’s true calling card. This, however, looks his perfect trip, giving how well he battled Fastorslow in the John Durkan. He can cause a little upset, against an Allaho who has question marks over him. Best price 4/1 (William Hill, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!