Best Of Bets

Tag: ITV Racing

  • Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Three – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Three – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today the best fillies take their turn to roll around the course, with a couple of three-year-olds looking to continue the electric form from the 1000 Guineas. There’s also the big Galway Hurdle this evening too. So don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Goodwood

    Hurricane Season

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    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Tropical Storm @ 9/2 (General)

    Tropical Storm is still a maiden, but is improving run by run. He’s a half-sister to black-type sprinter Purosangue, another horse I really like at the moment. He ran a cracker of a Norfolk Stakes at Royal Ascot, managing to get within a length of the winner. The form from that race has been boosted by Whistlejacket winning at Newmarket. Firm ground will suit, as will the step up in distance.

     

    Renaissance Stayer

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    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Jan Brueghel @ Evs (William Hill)

    Still a three-year-old, unbeaten, and the potential to enter the stayers division later this year. Jan Brueghel has been magnificent, and it begs the question why he has been steadily on the drift. The rest of the field have all come from the Derby, apart from one who was a consistent handicapper. The Derby form, bar City Of Troy has not worked out at all, and Jan Brueghel is unexposed at this trip and ground. Exciting.

     

    The Fat Lady Sings

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    3:35 – Nassau Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Opera Singer @ 5/2 (William Hill)

    There’s no doubt in recent years this race has favoured three-year-olds. Nashwa and Winter are notable three-year-old winners, and this year’s crop look extra special. Opera Singer was agonisingly close at Royal Ascot, and was backed up when Porta Fortuna won at Newmarket. Despite the majority of her family all milers, she does have staying power from her sire Justify. Top rated and bags of talent, she can finally find her elusive win this season.

    Or can Elmalka repeat her Guineas shock again. She was also involved in the race that Porta Fortuna won, but a wide draw may have let her down in the early stages. Despite only four runs, she is still improving, I think. And she won’t have a problem stepping up in distance either as she is a half-sister to Dubai Turf winner Benbatl. Great price at 8/1 (General).

     

    Galway

    Bed Bugs Bite

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    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Daddy Long Legs @ 17/2 (William Hill)

    One trainer has dominated this race. And no prizes for guessing who. Nicky Henderson may be bringing an English challenger over, but hardly any English horses win at Galway. Daddy Long Legs was tipped to go to the County Hurdle at Cheltenham, but didn’t and has since won at Punchestown. He wasn’t at his best at Tipperary when he stopped racing after three out. Things should be in better order today.

    Jesse Evans was only beaten by a head in last year’s contest and could complete an historic Galway Plate and Hurdle double, after Pinkerton won yesterday. Taking Connor Stone-Walsh’s claim on, he ends up being a pound lower than last year. Which makes his each-way price of 14/1 (BetVictor) an absolute steal.

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Two – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood & Galway | Day Two – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today the best milers take their turn to roll around the course, with one horses looking to right his wrongs. There’s also the big Galway Plate this evening too. So don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Goodwood

    Climbing Up The Mountain

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    2:25 – Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Kathmandu @ 4/1 (General)

    An lightly raced filly, who is interesting at the price. She wasn’t up to scratch in the Prix Jean Prat, but came so close in the French 1000 Guineas. Kathmandu has grown up since her third in the Nell Gwyn stakes, and firmer ground should be a more comfortable challenge for her. Dropping down from Group One’s may suit her even better.

    Pretty Crystal hasn’t had the best seasons since winning the Nell Gwyn, but has never really had her ground. She seemed to be more of a sprinter than a miler, but was found out at York. She may prefer the step up to seven, particularly on firmer ground. The form from the 1000 Guineas works in her favour too. Nice price at 14/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Quick Flowering

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Celandine @ 6/1 (General)

    Celandine should not be double the price of Aesterius. She’s won twice out of two on good-to-firm ground and was a close third in the Prix Robert Papin. She has a weight allowance on Aesteris too. The formline from the Empress Fillies’ Stakes has worked out too, with Arabian Dusk winning next time out. Unbeaten on ground and good form all round, she deserves to be shorter.

    Vingegaard was tipped up for the Weatherbys Super Sprint 11 days ago, and was agonisingly close in the finish. The trip suits to a ‘T’, particularly if there’s plenty of pace on offer. And looking back at the Windsor Castle, he just lost fourth going in the final 50 yards up the hill. Plenty of reasons to like him at 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    Poetry In Motion

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    3:35 – Sussex Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Henry Longfellow @ 6/4 (General)

    After a disappointing start in the French 2000 Guineas, his run at Royal Ascot was far better and much more of what we expected. He comes up against 2000 Guianeas winner Notable Speech who was very below par at Ascot. With no legitimate excuse, ground could be blamed in part, which is why I prefer Henry Longfellow, who proved to go well on it last time out.

     

    Galway

    Let’s Go Galway

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    7:10 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Lets Go Champ @ 7/1 (BetVictor)

    Heading over to the West coast of Ireland, the Galway Plate is the feature of the Festival at Ballybrit. Won by a plethora of top trainers, this year should be no different. Henry de Bromhead last won this race with Balko Des Flos and looks to have a progressive staying chaser on his hands.

    Lets Go Champ form took a rocket boost from his first start over fences when Fact To File won at Cheltenham, which saw him win at the Punchestown Festival. It’s become clear he’s a horse who prefers better ground. And whilst he’s up nine pounds, he’s still well weighted and should go near.

    Life In The Park hasn’t had the best season over fences, but I don’t think he’s ever had his ground. His best results have come on good ground and was racing on soft all season. He didn’t run well in the Topham, but is down the weights in this contest. He came to form in the Plate at Cheltenham, and with the better ground is at least an each-way shout. 20/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day One – Four To Follow

    Glorious Goodwood 2024 | Day One – Four To Follow

    It’s the midsummer horse racing event of the season. Glorious Goodwood is back, with five days of incredible racing on the Sussex Downs. Today it’s the turn of the stayers in the Goodwood Cup, and a familiar name is back headlining the race. There’s also a familiar name trying to make it three wins in the Lennox Stakes too. Don your Panama’s and let’s go racing.

     

    Say Hello To My Little Friend

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    1:50 – Chesterfield Cup Handicap – Tony Montana @ 14/1 (William Hill)

    With Enfjaar short in the market, I’m tempted to look elsewhere for a bit of value in the first race of the festival. Tony Montana finished third in the form race, the John Smith’s Cup at York. He ran on really well that day, finishing strong down the outside of the field. He’s only up a pound for a good run he can improve on, and he’s still only three pounds higher than his previous winning mark at Windsor this season.

    Stay Well didn’t race in the John Smith’s Cup, but has two races filled with form. Wadacre Gomez beat Stay Well at Chelmsford, then reversed the form next time out, before the former notched up another win. His latest run at Chelmsford saw him finish runner up to Enfjaar, and remains on the same mark. His form on turf may not look much from last season, but his performances this season suggest he has done a lot of improving. Interesting at 16/1 (William Hill).

    One trainer to follow in this race is Charlie Johnston. He and his father Mark have managed to notch up four of the last 10 winners. He has three runners today, but Killybegs Warrior should have his moment. Off the back of three really disappointing runs, he returns to very competitive mark, two pounds lower than his previous winning mark last year at Newmarket. Knowing how well the Johnston’s target their races, the market may be overlooking this one. 16/1 (William Hill).

     

    Goodwood Greek

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    2:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Highland Reel, Pinatubo and Haatem are just some of the recent winners of the race. This year looks very competitive. But I’m siding with the master Aidan O’Brien. The Parthenon finished well first time out, considering he was straight into a Group Three, and managed to back it up with a win at Gowran going away up the hill. Down the hill at Goodwood, he could win by further.

    An Outlaw’s Grace presents as an interesting opponent. His last start was in the Prix Robert Papin, where he finished a close fourth. He likes drying ground and may suit an extra furlong, despite being by a sprinter. Richard Hannon can follow up last year’s victory with an interesting horse that may be well worth following at three. 11/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Noble Quest

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    3:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Noble Dynasty @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Noble Dynasty has made big strides this season. From cosily winning a handicap, beating today’s second favourite English Oak, to winning his first group race at Newmarket last time out. He has shown incredible talent this season, and comes into the race top rated. Two-time Lennox winner Kinross hasn’t looked himself, and may be lacking the Frankie factor. It may be time for Noble Dynasty to pick up the crown.

     

    Guess Who’s Back?

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    3:35– Goodwood Cup (GROUP ONE) – Kyprios @ 4/9 (General)

    The 2022 Goodwood Cup winner, who trounced Stradivarius and Trueshan in a flying finish is finally back. Kyprios taken his time, but after his win in the Ascot Gold Cup he looks ready for anything. His nemesis Trawlerman doesn’t come here, but will be kept honest by the likes of Sweet William and Coltrane. But this should be a slightly easier test than the Gold Cup and will justify his odds-on price.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow Who Will Be King?

    Four To Follow Who Will Be King?

    It’s the big King George weekend at Ascot, with another great renewal of the top tier race. Can Auguste Rodin make up for last year’s incredible disappointment? Or can Rebel’s Romance strike through the heart? Plus a fantastic undercard to get through too. It’s a King George Four to Follow.

     

    Junior Monarch

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    1:50 – Princess Margaret Stakes (Group Three) – Handcuffed @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    Often a tricky two-year-old race in the middle of the season, there’s a good mix of talented fillies this year. Handcuffed was one of the last horses to be bred by the late Queen Elizabeth II, and she has some speedy bloodline. A half-sister to July Stakes winner Tactical, she was ridden patiently on debut, before switching to the inside and winning comfortably. With similar conditions today and a yard with good 2-Y-O form, she’s the pick for me.

     

    Bass, Baritone, Alto…

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    2:25 – Valiant Stakes (Group Three) – Soprano @ 7/2 (Betfred, BetUK)

    Another tough Group Three to pick at Ascot. In recent years, the form is with the three and four-year-olds. Soprano returns to the scene of her biggest career win, and on similar conditions too. With the big three-year-old allowance, she comes into the race top rated. Soft ground let her down last time out at Sandown, but still produced a good effort for third. But she has more favourable conditions today.

     

    Photo Finish

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    3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – New Image @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    Always a competitive race, and once again I’m going for a similar pick. David O’Meara’s luck has to turn in these Ascot seven furlong handicaps, and young pretender New Image comes into the fold. A rather consistent horse since transferring from the all-weather, he enjoyed a good success at Musselburgh, before narrowly finishing behind Tolstoy at York. With a rapid rise to the top, its clear O’Meara thinks highly of this horse.

    Metal Merchant hasn’t had much luck recently. Two good handicaps at Newbury have been offset by two average performances at Ascot and Sandown. However, he is drawn next to pace in the middle of the track with Dancing Gemini and Ropey Guest. Despite not winning on firm ground, the race tactics should suit him to a ‘T’. 9/1 (William Hill).

    Northern Express has finished fourth in this race the previous two years. He’s back on the same mark for last year’s fourth and comes in off the back off three decent runs at both York and Royal Ascot. He wears first-time cheeckpieces to sharpen him up which can only be seen as a positive. Underestimate him at your peril, 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Love Is King

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    3:40 – King George VI & Queen Elizabeth (GROUP ONE) – Rebel’s Romance @ 7/2 (General)

    I just can’t trust Auguste Rodin. He has the potential to blow out with every run, yet on his day he can be ultra-impressive. But Rebel’s Romance is the horse in the race that knows a thing or two about winning. UAE 2000 Guineas, UAE Derby, Breeders‘ Cup Turf, Sheema Classic and a win in the Glorious Stakes at Goodwood. He’s been everywhere and pretty much done it, including last time out in Hong Kong. He’s won on firm ground before and has the potential to be king at Ascot.

    Sunway for David Menusier ran a superb race in behind Los Angeles in the Irish Derby last time out, and with the three-year-old allowance has a big say on proceedings. Despite not winning this season, he’s come close twice. Firm ground will be interesting for him, but he’s unexposed and ran well on firm-ish conditions at the Curragh last time out. Each-way potential at 14/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Another Group One meets us head on, with the Irish Oaks at The Curragh. Also it’s Newbury’s Super Sprint Day for speedy two-year-olds. And we’ve got action over the jumps too, with the Summer Plate from Market Rasen. We’re everywhere today on Four To Follow.

     

    Newbury

    Elite Sprinter

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    3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Elite Status @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Elite Status beat last year’s Super Sprint winner, Relief Rally, in his first start this season over C&D. However, I’ve always felt he would offer more at a higher level and was surprised not to see him head to Ascot. As a result his talent has just been given a cap and, with the three-year-old weight allowance, can display his talents again.

     

    A Viking Invasion

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    3:35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes – Vingegaard @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    It’s always a tough race to predict. A big field of two-year-olds who aren’t at the top level, often inexperienced and with different allotted weights. Looking at recent winners, you have to have broken your maiden and raced at Royal Ascot. Vingegaard won well on debut at Chepstow and finished an admirable fifth at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle. He’s from a sprinter family so should have no trouble blazing a trail.

    Another little piece of form is Richard Hannon. He’s won this race four times in the last 10 years, which is an incredible strike rate. He only saddles one for this race, which perks interest. Despite Miss Collada not racing at Royal Ascot she has two wins and a place to her name. The form might not have worked out from her run at Salisbury, but performances suggest there’s a lot to come. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Market Rasen

    Boom Boom Boom

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    3:15 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Premier) – Boombawn @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    A little reminder that the jumps season is not too far away with the Summer Plate, summer specialists are the ones to back. Boombawn loves to have his day in the sun. He’s only just started his career as a chaser, so it says a lot when Dan Skelton puts him into a big handicap. He remains on a mark of 135 and can come on from the run from his second last time out.

    If there’s one horse that will religiously turn up to this race, it’s two time winner Francky Du Berlais. He’s nine pounds lower than last year’s race, and eight pounds lower than his lowest winning mark in the race. Despite being an old boy, he’s been placed in his last two runs, so there’s still life in the old boy yet. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh

    Oh Happy Day

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    3:40 – Irish Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General)

    Only four wins in the last ten years for Aidan O’Brien might seem good at first, but with his records in Ireland far bigger than that, it’s a wonder he hasn’t won more. Content hasn’t been impressive, but the market took not when Ryan Moore decided to ride her instead of Port Fairy. However, a relation added to her form as half-sister Bedtime Story ripped the Chesham field apart. Content also has form from the Coronation Stakes and was the best three-year-old in the Pretty Polly a couple of weeks ago.

    Lava Stream was ultra-impressive and almost chased down Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale. Now she steps up to group one level and may be a little underestimated by the market. She’s from a middle-distance family and can go on all sorts of ground, so good ground at the Curragh will have her suited. The English flat horses always seem to pinch a prize over in Ireland and it could be Lava Stream’s day to do so. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    July Festival | Four To Follow: John & July

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Three tips on Day Three of the July Festival, plus a John Smith’s Cup tip at York

     

    Newmarket

    Greek God

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    3:25 – Superlative Stakes (Group Two) – The Parthenon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Often one of the two-year-old races to watch, the Superlative has given light to the careers of Native Trail and City Of Troy in recent years. This year, there aren’t many horses to pick from impressive breeding lines so form lines are extra important. The Parthenon enjoyed a nice win at Gowran last time out, and his form line works out slightly better than his Godolphin counterpart.

    Look out for Pentle Bay who was best of the rest behind Bedtime Story at Royal Ascot. He’s one of a couple of horses to win on giving ground in his early career and has plenty of staying pedigree for the future. 5/1 (William Hill).

     

    Totally Mad

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    4:00 – Bunbury Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Most people would associate seven furlong handicaps with Ascot, but the Bunbury Cup is always a competitive feature of the July Festival. Awaal finished third in this race last year, two-and-a-quarter lengths behind winner Biggles. He’s back down to a mark of 102, the same when finishing second in the Lincoln handicap in 2023. He’s three pounds lower than his mark last year for this race and Simon & Ed Crisford enjoyed a double on yesterday’s card and can build on that today.

    Darkness has less success at this level of handicapping, but has one crucial thing in is favour. He’s two from two on the July course, horses for courses they say. His two wins on the course both came on firm ground, but when in France he has won of soft ground too, so there shouldn’t be any problems there. He can defy a six pound penalty today and make a good showing at 18/1 (William Hill).

    Yorkshire has two things that I really like about him. One: His name. Two: His low weight. Despite not performing at this level of handicapping in the past, he comes into this race with a win over seven furlongs already. Plus he has a versatility with ground, winning from good-to-firm to good-to-soft. Only three pounds above his last winning mark and has the weight of God’s Own County behind him. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Re-Match Point

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    4:35 – July Cup (GROUP ONE) – Vandeek @ 7/2 (Unibet)

    Plenty of rematch’s in this ultra-competitive July Cup. I’m siding with the Crisford’s once again with their stable star. Vandeek wasn’t up to his best at Haydock, but given it was his first run of the season, I’m willing to let that slide. After he missed the Royal meeting, this was the clear target for Vandeek and should put in a first-class performance.

    Mill Stream has been very consistent in sprint races this season. Out of three he’s finished 2, 1, 3 respectively. The furthest he got beat was by Khaadem at Royal Ascot last time out, and only by one-and-three-quarter lengths. He’s versatile on all ground and seems to come alive during mid-summer. 12/1 (General).

    This will be Jasour’s first time in open company, with the older horses involved. Again, he’s been quite consistent in two runs, with a win and third in the Commonwealth Cup. With a six pound allowance for three-year-olds, the younger horses are always preferred. Particularly, with 5 of the last 10 winners all three-year-olds. If he’s on his day again, he can run a big race at 14/1 (General).

     

    York

    John Smith’s Keats

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    3:10 – John Smith’s Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Epic Poet @ 8/1 (William Hill)

    Always one of the most exciting handicaps of the summer, in my opinion, the John Smith’s Cup. Epic Poet is possibly one of the best handicapped horses in the race, being three pounds well-in and a second last time out. He remains on the same mark of 97 and has a tendency to perform on soft ground, going on his career wins which all happened in France. He can overcome an outside draw, similar to Farraaj 10 years ago.

    Not many favourites, or single-price runners win this race. Looking down the market Paradis looks a nice each-way selection. Despite not being placed on a mark of 95, he’s down in the lower half of the weights. He loves give in the ground, and he’s got good-to-soft today. If he can overcome his big field no shows, then he has a big shout. 12/1 (William Hill).

    Dual Identity has the benefit of having a win to his name already this season. Despite being a Sandown specialist, he has won over ten furlongs. He’s down to a mark he can handle, and has the benefit of a claimer on board. He’s a little bit well-in, which may put him above some of the other runners. Can he win away from Sandown for the third time? 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Do You A Favour

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day Two of the July Festival

     

    Trip To Paris

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    1:50 – bet365 Handicap (Heritage H’cap) – Chantilly @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The form from the London Gold Cup has once again proven itself to be a hot piece of guidance. Chantilly came third in that race and underperformed at Ascot last time out. However, give him the excuse of firm ground and he should be a better match today. He also steps down in trip which will suit him, as he’s closely related to milers in his family.

    Sun God is likely to be a major threat in this race and has been found out by the market, but is still backable. A half-brother to Lillie Langtry and Park Hill winner Sumo Sam, Sun God is likely to go well at both the surface and the trip at this stage in his career. He also showed positive signs when just being held off by Black Run back in May. Exciting prospect at 10/1 (William Hill).

     

    Heavens Gate

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    2:25 – Duchess Of Cambridge Stakes (Group Two) – Heavens Gate @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    Heavens Gate showcased a lot of potential despite being second choice behind Fairy Godmother in the Albany at Royal Ascot. She set the pace pretty much all the way and was just succumbed to Fairy Godmother coming over the top. She will have soft ground in her pedigree and should be able to handle this test.

    Fiery Lucy is also one I favour. Her run at Fairyhouse has seen the second back up the form next time out at Bellewstown and comes into the race. Despite not being out of an affirmed sire and only related to one black type horse she might not have the best pedigree for a Group Two. But her form and performances are worth noting. 11/1 (General).

     

    Golden Band

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    3:00 – bet365 Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    Bague D’Or is very consistent in handicaps, particularly when winning on his first start of the season. He’s a modest four pounds above that previous winning mark. There may be a slight negative that he hasn’t won on any ground worse than good, but his record in handicaps is so consistent I can’t look past him.

    Knightswood makes an appeal at a price. The Johnston stable has a decent record in the race having recently won it back in 2022. With the market just preferring Knightswood over the other two in the race, there has to be something right with him. A classic stayer and steadily rising up the weights, he turns up with a low weight on his back and looks versatile on the ground. 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Favour Or Fortuna

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    3:35 – Falmouth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Porta Fortuna @ 6/4 (William Hill)

    With the form from both the 1000 Guineas Stakes working out superbly well, the ideal pick is someone who has benefitted. Porta Fortuna won the Coronation Stakes after being nosed off by Elmalka in the 1000 Guineas. And with none of her rivals turning up here, the talented Porta Fortuna can scorch away and do us all a favour by handing us a profit.

    The very best of luck!

  • July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    July Festival | Four To Follow: Soft Specialist

    It’s another midsummer racing festival, as we head to the summer house at HQ. The July course at Newmarket is a quieter affair, but still produces star performances every year at the height of the season. Four tips on Day One of the July Festival

     

    Lunar Hero

    1:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Space Legend @ 2/1 (William Hill)

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    Ancient Wisdom is clearly the better rated, but has been underwhelming in his first two starts as a three-year-old. He never handled the track at Epsom, and was well beaten at York. Space Legend has been a little more consistent. He was well beaten on firm ground at Royal Ascot, but was almost two lengths clear of the rest of the field. With staying pedigree, his clear target is the St Leger and this is often a quiet trial.

     

    Whistle While You Work

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    2:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Whistlejacket @ 5/4 (General)

    If you look back at Whistlejacket’s run at Royal Ascot, he never ran badly. He consistently led his group down the centre of the course, but the clear negative for him was the firm ground. Which is understandable, previous form backs it up. Had it been firmer ground today, it would be a far more open race. But with only few horses having experience on soft ground, Whistlejacket is a clear pick

     

    Soft Sprinter

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    3:00 – Bet Boost Handicap (Hertiage H’cap) – Moswaat @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Three-year-old handicaps still annoy me a little bit at this time of year. But we plug on and look for a sprinter who can handle the soft ground. Moswaat fits the bill for me. His first three runs this season have been disappointing, but he has only won previously on soft ground. He’s been dropped three pounds for his run at Royal Ascot and is down the weights today. Silvestre De Sousa has been on fine form since returning from Hong Kong and always catches the eye on board.

    Palmar Bay had a nice two-year-old season, winning twice and placed twice. He hasn’t seemed to handle the step up to seven furlongs, so the drop back to six will be a big positive. Again, he’s been dropped three pounds on conditions he will relish. He can also go forward on his side of the draw, and on soft ground might not be caught either. 14/1 (General).

     

    Scots Aren’t Soft

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    3:35 – Princess Of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Hamish @ 10/11 (William Hill, Betfred)

    If there’s one horse you want to win over a mile-and-a-half and on soft ground. Call on Hamish. Coming off the back of an admirable run at Epsom, he’s back in more comfortable surroundings with a possible eye to the King George at the end of the month. Giavellotto steps down in trip, which could be a hindrance with a penalty on board and Arrest is far too inconsistent to consider so Hamish is the answer

    The very best of luck!

  • FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    FIVE To Follow: Double The Derby

    After the come-down of Royal Ascot, we focus on a couple of Derby’s. Today, it’s the Pitman’s Derby up at Newcastle, or the Northumberland Plate as it is more formally known. Then on Sunday we have the Irish Derby, with the Epsom Derby’s second and third re-opposing. It’s a rare Saturday Five To Follow!

     

    Newcastle

    Northern Success

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    2:04 – Chipchase Stakes (Group Three) – Kinross @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Clearly, this is a prep race for Kinross in search of July Cup glory. Kinross missed Royal Ascot last week, which was a peculiar move by Ralph Beckett since heb seems to thrive on the heath. But clearly, bigger things are in store for the impressive multiple Group One winner. Starting things off in a Group Three has all the rest of the field vying for places.

     

    Duke’s Derby

    3:10 – Northumberland Plate (Heritage Handicap) – Duke Of Oxford @ 11/1 (William Hill)

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    Duke Of Oxford has every right to be shorter than he is. He has a better record on the all-weather than he does on turf. He’s won at the distance and can easily manage the weight he has been given for a true stamina test. At Newcastle he has a record of second and third, and is back to the mark he was for second on All-weather Finals day. His run at Chester was underwhelming, but has put him back in contention for the Pitman’s Derby.

    Sir Mark Prescott’s power of handicapping awareness cannot go understated. He won last night Hoppings Fillies Stakes, so has already prepped himself for an onslaught of Newcastle. He has two for the Pitman’s Derby. But I fancy his second string True Legend, an each-way pick. He has already won at Newcastle and is a progressive sort after just losing out at Goodwood last time out. He should make a good account of himself at 12/1 (BetVictor).

    Forza Orta hasn’t been in the best of form lately. But could this be the mastermind of trainer Kevin Ryan. He wasn’t exactly in the best of form coming into his most recent win at York, with a second at Hamilton behind him. He’s only a pound above that mark today and is low in the weights too. A clear stayer and this race may have been quietly in mind. Too big to ignore at 25/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newmarket

    Back To His Best

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    3:25 – Criterion Stakes (Group Three) – Nostrum @ 4/1 (General)

    Nostrum has had some excuses of late. At the end of last season he scoped lame, and at the start of this season he “raced awkwardly”. With an extended break, Sir Michael Stoute has hopefully fixed the problem for the 2022 Dewhurst third and has Charyn to back up the form from the April race this season.

    Witch Hunter has just kept running into good horses of late. Although his Group One performances have brought dividends. He finished third in the Lockinge and fourth in the Queen Anne, outperforming his odds both times. With a small field, and ground he can perform on, he’s got an each-way shout at 7/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh – Saturday

    No Blue Feelings

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    3:30 – Pretty Polly Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Bluestocking @ 15/8 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Four British raiders are over for this Group One. And the favourite takes the fancy. Emily Upjohn has plenty of things not in her favour, particularly going off her last performance at Epsom. Stay Alert will not want the ground firm, which looks like she won’t get. And Tasmania is a bit of an unknown in the hands of Sir Mark Prescott, who will have yes on Newcastle. Bluestocking obliterated the Middleton field at York and will perform on similar ground at the Curragh.

     

    Curragh- Sunday

    Race Of Angels

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    4:05 – Irish Derby (GROUP ONE) – Los Angeles @ 7/4 (General)

    After his third in the Epsom Derby, it was clear Los Angeles was a stayer and this was the next logical target. I’m still not taken by Ambiente Friendly, even though he finished more than three lengths in front of Los Angeles. I still think that stamina may be a challenge for him. Particularly when Los Angeles is out of a Derby winner and a full brother to two black type winners with a mile-and-a-half in their pedigree.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ‘sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.