Best Of Bets

Tag: ITV Racing

  • Four To Follow: Living The Dream + Irish 2000 Guineas

    Four To Follow: Living The Dream + Irish 2000 Guineas

    It’s a busy day all around the British Isles. Premier racedays at Haydock and Goodwood, a group race at York plus the small matter of Irish Guineas Weekend over at The Curragh. You could say racing fans are in a dream world today. I’ve managed to distil it down to three races at Haydock plus the main Group One event for Four To Follow.

     

    Haydock

    No More Rain

    1:15 – Betfred Silver Bowl Handicap (Heritage) – Candonomore @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    With the removal of Volterra from proceedings, signs show that the ground is not just soft, it’s Haydock soft. One horse who can combat this is the new favourite, Candonomore for Tim Easterby. He won not only over C&D last time out, but also on similar ground too. Despite being impressive, winning by nearly four lengths, he comes into this race bottom of the weights and looks very appealing.

    Sir Les Patterson is making his turf debut today but should command respect with two wins to his name. His last win at Kempton saw him holding off a late challenge and digging in deep. He’s drawn next to Volterra in stall 12, so will have the challenge of overcoming a particularly nasty draw. Nut the trend for this race has been horses coming off the back of a couple of wins, and Sir Les Patterson ticks that box and is weighted nicely. Each-way value at 10/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Things Can Only Get Better

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    1:50 – Betfred Temple Stakes (Group Two) – Live In The Dream @ 7/2 (General)

    Live In The Dream was one of the best stories of the season when he won the Nunthorpe at the Ebor meeting, but sadly the American dream didn’t come true. Last year he came third in this race, beaten by the then three-year-old Dramatised. He had a few hard luck stories last season but comes in here top weighted. Some will say that Live In The Dream wants fast rattling ground, but he has won and performed on soft well previously.

    As mentioned, three-year-olds have a decent record in the race. With so much weight given to them it’s hard to ignore. Seven Questions should have the answers. In his two-year-old season he showed a liking for soft ground, so will handle it at Haydock, and comes into this race off the back of a win. He managed to fly home down the outside on the Rowley mile on good ground, so the softer the better for him. 14/1 (General).

     

    Never Forget

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    2:25 – Betfred Supports Jack Berry House Sandy Lane Stakes (Group Two) – Vandeek @ 8/13 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Everyone has seem to have forgotten about Vandeek. He’s an unbeaten colt who performed exceptionally well last season and improved with every run. If you look at his form, he’s won on all sorts of ground, including soft. The form worked out into this season when Givemethebeatboys, third in last year’s Cheveley Park, won at Naas in April. I have every confidence he will deliver.

    One of my favourite horses in training, Purosangue, should run a decent race in behind. Knowing his mother, Avon Breeze, he will definitely get the ground. He’s also proven that with a win at York at the back-end of last season. Despite being one of the low rated horses in the race, ground will matter a lot over the sprint course. 9/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Curragh

    Not Another One

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    3:40 – Irish 2000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Rosallion @ 10/11 (William Hill)

    If there’s one thing separating River Tiber and Rosallion, it’s that Rosallion has run and won over a mile. Rosallion finished the best of the favourites behind Notable Speech but was himself nearly two lengths clear of third. Top rated and surely heading for a rematch against Notable Speech at Ascot, he has to be feared most here. And there doesn’t look to be another major upset in this one.

    I also think that for the Irish, Unquestionable is their best shout. Unquestionable has form behind Rosallion, in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagadere, and followed that second up with a win at the Breeders’ Cup. For Ryan Moore to choose a horse that hasn’t run over a mile may prove to be unwise, and I’m going with the second runner for Ballydoyle to run a good race in behind the odds-on favourite. 7/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    After a mixed week at the Dante Festival, we now move in to the first Group One for the older horses this season. The straight mile at Newbury sees the Lockinge Stakes return, with an international feel. A French raider is in town, can he stamp his authority? Plus a cracking undercard to complete Saturday’s Four To Follow.

     

    A Hot Hero

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    1:50 – Aston Park Stakes (Group Three) – Desert Hero @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    We kick off Lockinge Day with the Aston Park and Desert Hero comes to Newbury looking to avenge his agonising defeat at Sandown in April. He was only beaten by a neck by Okeechobee, but was rallying all the way to the line and needed a few extra yards. From that warm up race he’s been stepped up to his usual mile-and-a-half and stepped down to a Group Three. His near odds-on price should come as a shock to no one.

     

    Taking Relief

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    2:25 – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed) – Relief Rally @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally was one of the impressive two-year-olds over the sprint distance. She certainly showed her speed both over the flying five in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury and in the Group Two Lowther at York. Her reappearance was a little off over seven furlongs, but back down to the sprint distance, down in class and with a weight allowance, Relief Rally should kickstart what could be a terrific day for William Haggas.

     

    King To Knight

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    3:00 – London Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) – King’s Gambit @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    One of the hotly anticipated three-year-old handicaps of the season, this often dictates how this year’s crop are going to fair. King’s Gambit in particular is one of unique interest. He had a decent enough novice career, winning over a mile at the course as a two-year-old. But trainer Harry Charlton has been aiming this horse at the London Gold Cup all winter. Being high in the handicap is not a bad thing in this race, particularly if you’ve got a lot of ability.

    Joanna Mason and Mick & David Easterby celebrated a shock winner at the Dante Festival this week. And they haven’t been bad recently, training four good winners in the process. Mason has had a few wins and places herself too. They team up and head down South with Spirit Of Acklam, who has improved stepping up in distance each time. His win at Ripon by three lengths is one to take note of. 10/1 (William Hill).

    Form also counts in this race, particularly when you’ve finished behind a Classic winner. Persica was third behind Notable Speech at Kempton last time out, before he went and won the Guineas a couple of weeks ago. In his novice career, it looked as though he needed juice in the ground to be at his best. He looks like he’s got his ground here and form to match a nice weight in the race. 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    What The Rock Is Cooking…

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    3:35 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Big Rock @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    I’ve been waiting, like many people have, to see Big Rock reappear. And when a horse who thrashed British horses by 15-and-a-half lengths, it’s a worry. He does have to contest with Inspiral, who can return well but will want the ground firm. Big Rock can go anything with juice in the ground. It will also be interesting to see how he performs for a new stable, four weeks after he moved in.

    For the Brits, Charyn has had an excellent start to the season. He was dominant in both the Doncaster Mile and bet365 Mile at Sandown. Whilst they were both Listed and Group Two races, he showed a Group One ability that might see him hit the frame. Or even win and make it a stunning start to the season for Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian. 6/1 (General).

    It’s also great to see Royal Scotsman reappear. Third in the 2000 Guineas last year, he had excuses of why he ran so poorly in the Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes. We then didn’t see him run for the rest of the season, but he’s back and thrown straight into the deep end. The vibes are good from the Cole stable, and could run well and set up some nice prizes later down the line. 14/1 (Betfred, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    Four To Follow: Willie’s In The… Group Race?

    We resumed normal service with two winners and four places. Clarendon House and Economics made us end in profit and go into the final day of the Dante Festival on an even keel. Today it’s the turn of the older horses, with the Yorkshire Cup taking centre stage. And there’s one horse who looks like he shouldn’t belong there…

     

    A Blooming Bet

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    2:45 – Knights Solicitors Handicap – Botanical @ 100/30 (General)

    Botanical was one of my bets for Chester last week, but swerved the Roodee due to the ground and has come up to the Knavesmire. Roger Varian hasn’t had the best of times lately, but he’s waited to get Botanical out for a while and thinks his best opportunity is here. The bend will help him, given his wins have come at Hamilton, which has a bend. Ground is in his favour and his last run was finishing six lengths in front of the Lincoln winner, Mr Professor.

    Eilean Dubh has had a dry spell since mid-Summer last year. But he showed some promise last time out at Thirsk and should come on for the run. Stepped back up in trip and down two pounds to a mark of 89 should make the world of difference. He’s run and won over a mile before, but this step up in trip could show a new side to Eilean Dubh. Unexposed at 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    I can’t ignore a horse who’s well-in in the handicap. Loyal Touch for local trainer Charlie Johnston was only half-a-length behind the eventual winner Tony Montana when he just couldn’t keep on. But he was clear two-and-a-half lengths clear of third and has been ultra consistent in his last three runs. One narrow win and two narrow defeats, plus well-in in the handicap makes Loyal Touch one to watch. 9/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Colourful And Bright

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    3:15 – Michael Seely Memorial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed) – True Cyan @ 4/1 (General)

    True Cyan might be a little looked over in the market after her fourth in the Nell Gwyn Stakes, but the form is backed up, somewhat. Kathmandu ran a blinder in the French 1000 Guineas last Sunday and finished a little under two lengths behind her. Her maiden win has been backed with plenty of form and the step up to the mile will suit her better than seven furlongs.

    And just one little shoutout to Carolina Reaper. She was sent on a fact-finding mission over ten furlongs where she ran into Friendly Soul. She was extremely disappointing in the Musidora, but 10 furlongs was never her distance. The mile will suit her so much better and at this level, she should run a big race at 25/1 (General).

     

    Group Getter

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    3:45 – Yorkshire Cup (Group Two) – Vauban @ 7/2 (General)

    How is Vauban second favourite? In a Group race? Over a mile and six furlongs? Trained by the British Champion jumps trainer?

    Tower Of London was good in the Middle East, take nothing away from those performances. But he’s up against a Royal Ascot winner, a Grade One winning hurdler and a horse who has now been rerouted to go on the flat. Vauban is a made Gold Cup, if not Group One winner. His price boggles the mind.

     

    Surrounded

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    4:15 – Darley EBF Novice Stakes – Under Siege @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    An intriguing novice stakes makes up our fourth race, and one horse comes in with his form rocket boosted. Under Siege was beaten by none other than Economics and still stands as second favourite. There are some more boosts behind Under Siege as well and Andrew Balding has had a good patch of form recently. Local rider Danny Tudhope gives him an extra boost.

    Dark Tornado has also some good form behind him after finishing second last September. He’s joined James Horton, who looks to have a useful horse on his hands and should have progressed well from two to three. He has plenty of distance form, over the mile, in his breeding and is an interesting price at 9/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    Four To Follow: Get Four For Free

    The Dante Festival and York remained as unpredictable as ever. The Placepot won over £28,000, which just shows how unpredictable yesterday was for not only backing winners but backing each-way shots too. Hopefully today is easier with four more tips from the Knavesmire.

    A Full House

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    2:15 – Lindum York Handicap – Clarendon House @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    With the ground now good, Clarendon House has a great opportunity. He’s been running on the All-weather this Winter and has found success. No less on his current mark of 105. Whilst he did come fourth on heavy ground on his first turf start of the season, he was only one-and-a-half lengths behind, so the ground can be blamed for that result. On a winning mark, with good ground in his favour and drawn next the pace which comes from stall 11, he presents one of the best chances in the race.

    Alligator Alley is no stranger to York. His last result on the Knavesmire was only beaten by a neck during the Ebor Festival. Since then, he’s mostly been running on the all-weather and comes into this race low in the weights. He’s dropped down to a mark of 89 so it should suit him better. He’s only won two turf races on firm ground, which is a worry. But a low mark should see him come over that obstacle. 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Good Earth looks to have a good chance as an outsider. With three pounds taken off by Connor Planas, he’s down to a previous winning mark. He loves give in the ground and he can go prominent as he’s drawn next to Arecibo. His last win came off a two-pound higher mark as well so he should be in the mix at the finish. 22/1 (General).

     

    Always Fun Up North

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    2:45 – Hambleton Handicap – Northern Express @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Northern Express loves York. He’s raced there for the Michael Dods team 13 times and won three. He’s finished in the top three eight times, so has a decent enough strike record over both a mile and seven furlongs. He can go any ground, but will appreciate the dig in the ground that going is giving. He’s on a mark of 100, which is only a pound above his highest winning mark of 99. Win number four incoming for Northern Express. Choo-Choo!

    Bopedro looks an interesting runner. He hasn’t won since August off a mark of 98, and he’s back down to that mark today. His best performances seem to come on marks in the 90s, so expect one today with a mark of 98. He can go on all sorts of ground and was placed at York last season as well. 25/1 (Boylesports) looks an absolute steal.

    Cruyff Turn won the race two years ago for Tim Easterby. He hasn’t been running well of late but goes down to a mark of 88. That’s two pounds below a previous mark of 90 and loves cut in the ground. He competed in this race last year off a seven pound higher mark and Easterby might have had this race in mind after disappointing in the Thirsk Hunt Cup. 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Let-Er Rip

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    3:15 – Middleton Stakes (Group Two) – Free Wind @ 7/4 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Free Wind goes extremely well fresh. She’s won all three of her races off a break and doesn’t seem to come on for the runs after. However she did win four races as a three-year-old. She won this race last season by half a length and all her opponents had decent seasons after that. Don’t expect anything of Free Wind this season unless she’s coming off a break.

     

    Wisdom Number Four

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    3:45 – Dante Stakes (Group Two) – Ancient Wisdom @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    Ancient Wisdom looks a lot more solid as a Derby contender than most. His form as a two-year-old stacks up impressively with three winners and three places from the Futurity Trophy. He’s by the legend that is Dubawi and out of a Group Three winning mare over a mile-and-a-half. He should come on for the step up in trip and handle it well.

    Don’t discount Economics in this race. Two winners have already come out of his maiden win at Newbury and were well down the field against Economics. Despite being by a miler, his mother was a Group Two winner over a mile and a half so will handle the step up in trip and looks a nice price at 15/2 (General).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    Four To Follow: Money Makes Gold

    The Dante Festival signals the return of the season at York Racecourse. Oaks and Derby trials take place here each week and the racing public pay close attention as often they produce those who find Epsom gold. We kick off the week with two cracking handicaps, a fantastic group sprint race and the Musidora for a midweek Four to Follow.

     

    Champ Of The Knavesmire

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    2:15 – Jorvik Handicap – Marhaba The Champ @ 4/1 (General)

    Northern trainers all do well at York. The Dante and Ebor Festivals are always targeted by those big yards that train in Yorkshire.

    Kevin Ryan is one such individual. Last year Marhaba The Champ won twice on the Knavesmire, during the Dante and Ebor meetings. This horse has been well-targeted to run at those two meetings, and don’t be surprised if he is again this season. Despite some rain, the ground is holding up and can dry out quickly at York, which can bring up win number three for Marhaba.

    Chillingham comes into this race with a great looking handicap mark. He’s been dropped a pound for placing within a length last time out at Ripon, which seems really odd. Despite some near misses on soft ground recently, he has won on firmer once before. The ground should suit and he should be able to make a rather lenient, yet light, drop in the handicap work. 8/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Saratoga Gold hasn’t had the best of times running since winning at Kempton last year. He also unseated his rider during the Queen Mother Cup at York last year as well. However, he has won on firmer ground over the distance and further. Plus a mark of 88 looks good, considering he’s drawn on the rail. Shortest route to take at 25/1 (General).

     

    Going For Gold

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    2:45 – Churchill Tyres Handicap – Aberama Gold @ 11/1 (William Hill)

    Sprint handicaps at York cannot be beat. So many familiar names turn up and you just sit back and enjoy. Former Steward’s Cup winner Aberama Gold after three wins in big handicaps last season. He is starting to get back into his groove after fishing third at the Craven meeting and the handicapper has dropped him a pound after his last run at the Guineas meeting. This puts him on his last winning mark, and the ground should be to his liking. He’s also drawn near the pace too which makes him a great bet.

    Great Ambassador also looks to be well handicapped for this race. Last season he was mostly see in Group races, but he’s back down to a mark of 97. He won a handicap at Newmarket off that figure on firm ground as well. Plenty of speed should suit him drawn in the middle at 10, drawn next to Hispanic, so could we see him back to winning ways for the first time since 2021? A nice each-way bet at 14/1 (General).

    Monsieur Kodi also looks interesting for Richard Fahey. He found no luck in running at Ripon last time out and the handicapper has dropped him. He was narrowly beaten off a mark of 85 so things might go well for him a pound lower in the weights. He’s stepped back up to a more comfortable six furlongs and won’t mind what ground he gets. Great each-way price at 18/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A-Zure Bet

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    3:15 –1895 Duke Of York Stakes (Group Two) – Azure Blue @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    This is one of the best Group races already this season. Plenty of action and plenty who hold chances. But I’m sticking with the favourite. With Art Power carrying a penalty, and Azure Blue with an allowance, the latter is the top rated in the field. Having won this race last season and acting well at the start of the season. She goes well fresh, so her price makes her look more attractive.

    Washington Heights shockingly won the Abernant. Trainer Kevin Ryan says that he won’t want too much rain, and with firm still in the going, he has every chance to shock them again. Washington Heights has always raced well at York, only beaten twice both by a head. With a horse that won last time out, acts on the ground and a like for the course, 10/1 (General) is a great price.

    Let’s not forget there are a couple of Group One winners in this field. One of them being Khaadem. He begins his defence of the Queen Elizabeth II Stakes after winning at 80/1. He enjoys six furlongs better than five, and firm ground. With all of that in mind, a price of 18/1 (BetVictor) doesn’t take into account his Group One pedigree.

     

    What My Friends Call Me…

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    3:45 – Musidora Stakes (Group Three) – Friendly Soul @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    John & Thady Gosden sent last year’s Musidora/Oaks winner Soul Sister off at 18/1. This time they have been found out with an exceptional horse. Friendly Soul routed the field in the Pretty Polly, beating the well-fancied Kalpana in the process and looked like she might go further. Her breeding suggests that this might be her limit, but don’t knock it until you try. She looks tailor-made for the Musidora.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Pearle Of A Day

    Four To Follow: Pearle Of A Day

    Plenty going on today, with Lingfield Derby Trials and some great handicaps up and down the country. The first big seven furlong handicap at Ascot takes place, plus the unique mixed card at Haydock too. It’s a four to follow up and down the country.

     

    Lingfield

    Smile On My Face

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    2:25 – William Hill Oaks Trial (Listed) – Danielle @ 6/5 (William Hill)

    It’s not often a star is born on the flat at Wetherby, but it looks like it with Danielle. A big 12 length win to break a maiden is nothing short of impressive. And being by Derby winner Cracksman, and with black type running through the family, this Lingfield Oaks Trial looks like it could give us a massive clue for Epsom’s big race on Friday.

     

    The Prairie Horse

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    3:00 – William Hill Derby Trial (Listed) – Illinois @ 5/2 (General)

    This looks a more competitive trial for the fourth Classic of the season. The top two in the market are by Derby winners, but Illinois has the black type to put him over the edge. The better ground might suit him a little better after hitting the frame in a Group One in France. Only Aidan O’Brien has produced a Derby winner from this race in the last 10 years, but Illinois doesn’t look like Derby material on paper. But he looks a good winner of this contest.

     

    Ascot

    A Pearle Of A Bet

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    2:40 – Victoria Cup (Premier Handicap) – Pearle D’Or @ 8/1 (Boylesports)

    David O’Meara might not have the best record in the race, but Pearle D’Or looks brilliantly suited. He had two goes at C&D last year and was beaten by a neck and won by three-quarters of a length. He’s up nine pounds in four runs, which is the sign of a nicely improving horse. But then looking at the weights, Pearle D’or is near the bottom. Middle might not be the best draw, but a good break and track to the far side will give Pearle D’or the best option of latching onto the pace.

    Ramazan hasn’t been outside the top two in four runs. And whilst 105 might be a bit too high, he has a five pound claimer on board. This brings him down to a similar mark when he was narrowly beaten in the Ayr Gold Cup. Richard Fahey’s stable is always one that doesn’t go off the boil and Northern raiders are always ones to watch at Ascot meetings. Nice each-way value 12/1 (General).

    Another O’Meara horse that might give a good showing is Rhoscolyn. He’s up a pound from last year’s run, which isn’t in his favour. But he’ll appreciate the cut in the ground and can improve from a close fourth last time out. Small stakes at 25/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Haydock

    Singing Along

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    3:15 – Swinton Handicap Hurdle (Premier) – Lark In The Mornin @ 9/4 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred)

    Despite being a little over 2/1, Lark In The Mornin possibly has the best value in the race. After winning the Juvenile Handicap Hurdle at Cheltenham, he’s been risen only eight pounds but is low in the weights for this race. And despite winning on heavy ground, he appreciates better ground, having been pulled twice before Cheltenham. Watch his price as he could go odds-on.

    Other nice prices, Mr Freedom will prefer the good ground and has represented some good form throughout the season. He was a long way behind Our Champ in the Sussex Champion Hurdle but finished well ahead of the third. For that, he’s been dropped a pound. Dropping in the weights for finishing second is something I can really get behind and expect a good performance at 16/1 (Betfred).

    Last year’s winner Ngolo might not be to the level Lark In The Mornin is. But he’s back to the same winning mark he was in 2022. It should be similar ground as well, but he has only come back from a break of 475 days. He’s also a similar price to his win in 2022 so it could be a case of déjà vu. 25/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    A tricky day, with selections hitting the bar. But Point Lonsdale managed to salvage something from the day. Today, it’s Chester’s big day with the Chester Cup taking centre stage. Some names may be familiar from the jumps who make their way over for one of the longest races of the flat season. Plus a good undercard to make a Friday Four To Follow.

     

    Dreaming Of Wins

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Earl Of Grosvenor Handicap – Liamarty Dreams @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Liamarty Dreams is looking to make it a hat-trick in this race. He won at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting, then at Musselburgh after been raised four pounds. It’s the same amount today and looks to be on the big improve this season. Stall two over the seven-and-a-half furlongs makes him all the more appealing for a yard in decent form.

    Revich won this race last year and has a great record on the Roodee. Four wins at the track makes him one of the specialists in the field. He’s back to a mark of 95, a winning mark up at Ayr last season. Plus, a middle draw isn’t the worst thing in the world and can bounce back to form after two lacklustre season openers. 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Island Native is a debutant at Chester, but he should be able to handle the tight turns with wins on the all-weather, including Lingfield. He showed a good performance on turf at Brighton last time out. But he’s climbing up three classes for this race, which is a nagging doubt. But the king of Chester, Franny Norton, will be able to guide him round his favourite track. Worth something at 12/1 (General).

     

    May Flowers

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    2:35 – Free Bet Friday Handicap – Botanical @ 7/2 (William Hill)

    Already the form for Botanical has been given an almighty boost. Mr Porfessor went and won the Lincoln this year, but was beat by Botanical by six lengths on his last start of the season. Given that Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian are a red hot classic winning combination, it would make sense to go with what seems to be the second Al Maktoum runner in the race.

     

    It’s Rar Rar

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    3:05 – Huxley Stakes (Group Two) – Israr @ 11/4 (General)

    You can’t argue when you have good ground and the highest rated horse in a race. Israr ticks all the boxes, and comes off the back of a close third at Sandown last time out. He beat former Derby winner Adayar last year at this level at the Newmarket July Festival and has had a decent winter over in the Middle East as well. At the price, it makes sense.

     

    A Ztuck Cup

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    3:40 – Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Zoffee @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    After one appearance in the Chester Cup, Zoffee seemed to be at home with the Roodee. He didn’t act for the rest of the season and comes back here three pounds lower than last season. At a track he seems to like and on a lower mark, plus a tendency to act at this time out the year, Zoffee is my main pick for the Chester Cup.

    Another course specialist who should handle the Cup well is Solent Gateway. He’s raced a few times and only won once, but experience counts round here. He last raced in the Cup off a mark of 90 and is two pounds higher today. Saffie Osborne is in the saddle which is always a big plus, given that she’s operating at a 22% strike rate. An added bonus of being a pound well in the handicap makes 14/1 (General) quite attractive.

    Too Friendly has a shot at a big price. Trainer James Owen says that the track should suit him and acts more in the Summer than he does in the Winter over jumps. He won on the all-weather in March and is only up four pounds for the run, which sees him at one of the lower weights in the field. Small stakes at 20/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Four To Follow: God’s Got A Point – Chester May Festival

    Yesterday, there wasn’t much point to get stuck into, in terms of both quality and value, but we saw some terrific finishes. Today is much more competitive with some nice-looking handicaps, as well as a tricky Ormonde Stakes as the feature.

     

    Fire In The Belly

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Handicap – Roman Dragon @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    A quick race to get us started with, and, as ever, draw is key. But course specialists are also a key factor, and Roman Dragon knows the Roodee better than any horse in the field. He’s raced round the round track 15 times, winning five times. He’s won from multiple positions, including outside stalls, but he’s in stall one today. Also, recent form in Bahrain has seen his mark gone up four pounds, but he’s an improver for the local Hugo Palmer yard.

    In the last ten years, this race has been won out of only three stalls; 1, 3, 4. Clearpoint fills stall number four, and looks nicely handicapped. He was dropped a pound for finishing fourth at Epsom last time out, which puts him on the same mark for a close third at Lingfield. The three pounds that William Craver takes off also brings him down to a recent winning mark. Nice each-way value at 8/1 (Betfred).

    Michaela’s Boy looks to put right so many wrongs. He hasn’t won since December 2022, and came close at the Curragh last Summer. He’s been dropped a massive four pounds from his last start at Musselburgh and his new weight makes him look appealing in the market. 12/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Rash To Judgement

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    2:05 – British Stallion Studs Maiden Stakes – Rashabar @ 3/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    This horse’s form is gold dust. Rashbar finished third at Newbury, but ahead of him the second won next time out at Bath. He also beat a winner at Salisbury and a neck second at Newmarket. With three winners in the field, it should only be a matter of time before he goes odds-on. Despite drawn wide, this is about the talent of the two-year-olds, so draw isn’t as important as it is in handicaps.

     

    When God Closes a Door…

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    3:05 – Dee Stakes (Listed) – God’s Window @ 9/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    The Dee Stakes is the lesser-known Derby trial. It hasn’t produced a Derby winner recently, but nearly did with Cliffs Of Moher in 2017. It did produce multiple Grade One winning hurdler Not So Sleepy, so it’s got some depth.

    God’s Window is the highest rated horse out of the lot and was an eight-and-a-half length winner at Nottingham on reappearance. Jayarebe has his form boosted by both Whip Cracker and Caviar Heights. But God’s Window has entries in three big Group One’s, including the Derby and the Eclipse. This is the litmus test for his season.

     

    Lonsdale Has A Point

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    3:40 – Ormonde Stakes (Group Three) – Point Lonsdale @ 9/4 (Boylesports)

    Point Lonsdale is often looked over as a forgotten horse, but he can act when he is brought to his level. He didn’t win at all over the Winter, which blots his copybook. But a big tick in his book is that he won the Huxley Stakes last year, so he knows the course. Combined with the fact he is the highest-rated horse in the field, and Arrest was deeply disappointing on reappearance, the door might just be shown for Point Lonsdale.

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part Two

    Yesterday, we saw a shock as City Of Troy checked out of the 2000 Guineas in a major disappointment. Today will be a trickier challenge with the second Classic of the season, the 1000 Guineas. A rather open field with plenty due for improvement, so who takes the nod in today’s four to follow?

     

    Blast-Off

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    1:50 – William Hill Pretty Polly Stakes (Listed) – Kalpana @ 7/4 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Kalpana blew everyone at the Craven meeting, winning in handicap company by 10 lengths. That kind of form is useful when stepping up into Listed company, and should beat the field, who are somewhat either exposed or inexperienced. She has plenty of staying pedigree in her family so shouldn’t have a problem with the trip again.

    At a price, a horse I loved last season, Carolina Reaper. It’s hard to say if she will improve from two to three, but she is a Group Three winner (albeit in Germany). It’s a hike in distance and more of a fact-finding mission today, and breeding suggests overall a mile will be best. But her dam did get a mile-and-a-quarter when three years old, so 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports) may be worth a little punt.

     

    Alert And Awake

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    2:25 – William Hill Dahila Stakes (Group Two) – Stay Alert @ 11/2 (William Hill)

    Stay Alert may be a little underestimated in the field. She wasn’t successful at Group One level, and this may more to her taste. She’s won twice going fresh plus she’ll get her ground. Also stepping down a touch to a mile and a furlong might bring the best out of her. Plus, she’s top rated without having to give any weight away which makes her price all the more appealing.

    Caernarfon was an Oaks horse, many people forget. And she finished third. She did get stepped down to a mile and a quarter, but never produced her best. Her last win came over a mile, and she’s only a furlong above that. Plus, a course win only enhances her chances further. She’s a little shorter than I expected, but she should go well. 9/2 (William Hill, BetUK).

     

    Golden Ring

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    3:00 – William Hill Handicap (Heritage) – Bague D’Or @ 13/2 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports)

    Bague D’or is a horse who can go really well fresh, with two wins and two seconds. A slight negative is he is off the same mark as he was at the end of last season. But he did only race twice last season and this run may bring about more improvement. Mickael Barzalona is a really interesting jockey booking and may deliver a first win in less than two years.

    Adjuvant is another horse who can go well fresh with a win and two places. He inexplicably had a brief campaign over hurdles during the Winter, but he’s definitely a flat horse. He drops two pounds to a mark he finished second at the Goodwood Festival last year, where he was nearly two lengths ahead of third. Adjuvant won over C&D last May off a higher mark but has every right to hit the frame. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Struth is a really interesting character. He’s won twice off a break, including on debut. He finished third over 1m 6F at Haydock last season, which is his only experience over the trip, so is still a bit unexposed. 96 is a mark he can give or take, but given he’s won two races in his career in the spring, now may be the time to back him. 11/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    A Classic Renewal

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    1000 Guineas (GROUP ONE) – Fallen Angel @ 100/30 (General)

    Yesterday, we all thought we knew how the first Classic of the season would go. Now the second Classic is here, it’s opened up enormously. However, a Group One winner in Fallen Angel should not be discounted. Brilliant backs the form up from her win in the Moyglare Stud Stakes last season, but so does her win in the Sweet Solera. Bred from a Group Mile winner, she should have it in her to win this race.

    It may be a surprise that Porta Fortuna turns up here, but she almost won at the Breeders’ Cup. She came within half a length at a distance that she had not experienced that season, which shows a massive improvement at a young age. She should get the distance now she’s three, and her dam won over further in her career. Definitely a watch at 14/1 (Unibet).

    Darnation lit up my eyes when watching her live at Thirsk breaking her maiden. She achieved Group success since, but just failed in the Criterium for Fillies and Longchamp. She’s a proven Group winner over the distance which should stand her in good stead, despite her being 33/1 (William Hill, 10Bet).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    Four To Follow: A Classic Classic – Part One

    And we’re off with the first Classic of the season, the 2000 Guineas. After all the hype could we finally see City Of Troy become a world beater or will Rosallion, quotes as one of the best Richard Hannon has trained, snatch victory. Plus a terrific undercard too. It’s a two-parter Newmarket Guineas Four to Follow.

     

    The Classic Chairman

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    1:45 – William Hill Extra Place Races Handicap (Heritage) – Chairmanoftheboard @ 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Being at least a pound well in a handicap like this can make all the difference. And that is what exactly Chairmanoftheboard is. He was only beaten by a head at the Craven meeting and hasn’t moved off his mark of 86. Surely with the downpour everyone has had in the country has hit Newmarket too and should have enough dig to have his preferred ground and will have a good go at this.

    An interesting quote from Richard Hannon about this horse is “The more trouble he gets in the better.” Mums Tipple didn’t have that much of a successful season last year, with only a win at Chelmsford in March. However, his all-weather mark and turf mark are five pounds apart, with the turf mark more appealing. Plus he seems to act well at the start of the season as well, so should go near at 12/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports).

    It’s also worth giving a mention at a big price for Desert Cop. He’s been dropped a full ten pounds from his last turf appearance in the Ayr Gold Cup. He was last seen finishing last whilst finishing top weight at Kempton and the significant drop might signal some improvement from a horse who’s won early on in the season before. 22/1 (General).

     

    Catch A Dutchman

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    2:20 – William Hill Suffolk Stakes (Heritage Handicap) – Dutch Decoy @ 15/2 (General)

    For a horse who finished within a neck last time out and is a pound well in on the handicap, it’s hard to figure out why Dutch Decoy is the price that he is. He’s higher in the weights than last year, but not by much showing that he is an improving horse. Johnston horses love to make the running and with everything in favour for Dutch Decoy, most will be playing catch me if you can.

    Majestic is a big Newmarket lover. A winner of the Cambridgeshire, he didn’t exactly follow up but put in a good shift at the start of last season in this race. He returns at a lower mark and conditions should be in his favour. He was only beaten a length into fifth last time out at the Craven meeting so he should be in and around the finish according to the handicapper. 9/1 (William Hill).

    If there’s one jockey that everyone should take note of, it’s Saffie Osborne. A hugely talented rider, and she gets the leg up on Mustazeed. A horse who, last season, began really well. However, he’s been on a mark of 88 for a while and has only come down after a poor performance at the end of last season. His last win came on good ground so conditions may suit for a big run. 22/1 (William Hill).

     

    Mit-Baah Humbug

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    2:55 – William Hill Palace House Stakes (Group Three) – Mitbaahy @ 100/30 (Unibet)

    Three-year-olds don’t have a great record early on in the Palace House so I’ve looked to the more experienced type. Mitbaahy wasn’t too far away in the Abernant during the Craven meeting, and sometimes needs a run before he needs to be considered. Whilst not a Group One horse, he’s certainly a horse who can act at this level.

     

    Definitely Not Wooden

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    2000 GUINEAS (GROUP ONE) – City Of Troy @ 8/11 (William Hill, Unibet)

    If there’s one horse that everyone has been waiting for this flat season, it’s City Of Troy. Everyone has waited for this horse to compete in the Guineas after his win in the Dewhurst Stakes, often a great pointer to this race. Rosallion does have good form behind him, but City Of Troy has rather better.

    Alyanaabi finished second to City Of Troy in the Dewhurst and has his form boosted by Boiling Point, from the Tattersalls Stakes, winning yesterday at Newmarket. He’s bred by Too Darn Hot, which means he will certainly get a mile. It may be a question of ground after winning twice on firmer surfaces. But Shadwell usually gets their breeding right. 18/1 (General).

    The very best of luck!