Best Of Bets

Tag: Derby

  • Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    Lingfield Derby Trial Day | King of Ascot

    After keeping our head above the water through the first two days of the Chester May Festival, I was hopeful that we could head into Lingfield Derby Trial Day in a nice position.

    However, yesterday didn’t go to the script as Boardman stayed on past horses in the opener, Mashhoor went too hard too soon in the Huxley Stakes, and both of the Chester Cup fancies (despite the late support for Too Friendly) failed to fire.

    To round up the day, Chillhi pulled four-and-a-half lengths clear of the third but found the Tony Carroll-trained Oman too good. That hurt.

    So, let’s pick ourselves up and dust ourselves off as here are my main plays for Saturday.

     

    1:30 Ascot – King Of The Plains @ 11/2 with William Hill (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opener at Ascot, King Of The Plains holds plenty of intrigue on his first start for James Horton.

    Starting with his form, he ran into Banderas (a horse who was third to Saint George and Sweet William at Southwell in April 2023) at Chester on his debut before a solid second to Ghara when giving weight away.

    The winner that day now has a rating of 93 and finished fourth in the Listed Lingfield Oaks before that race, so that form looks solid.

    By Roaring Lion out of the two-time Group 1 winner Golden Lilac, he is entitled to improve massively now he is a four-year-old as he didn’t race at two and he looks like a big-framed gelding.

    However, one of the more interesting things is the fact that Qatar Racing sold him 47,000gns at the Tattersalls HIT Sale in October, though David Redvers – the racing manager to Qatar Racing – is still one of the part-owners.

    Redvers is also the racing manager to David Howden, one of the other part-owners, and today is the day that Oisin Murphy (one of the retained riders for Qatar Racing) is having his first ride for Horton.

    I’ll give a quick word to Tony Calvin who highlighted this first in his Betfair Racing column. He worked this all out and I’m just passing on the information here, but this is all very interesting nonetheless.

    Off a mark of 82, he should have some improvement to come and today’s assignment looks like an ideal place to start that progress.

     

    2:05 Ascot – Strong Impact @ 11/2 with SkyBet (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    Moving onto the second race at Ascot, Strong Impact is a horse that can improve past her mark of 81 in this £45,000 fillies’ handicap.

    The four-year-old by Saxon Warrior had a decent three-year-old campaign as she ran into Infinite Cosmos – the Group 3 Musidora Stakes third – on her second career start before a good second over 1m4f at Newmarket.

    That race got a form boost when Sumo Sam won the Group 2 Park Hill Fillies’ Stakes at Doncaster and even the fourth, Marmara Sea, won a handicap off 75 at Haydock in September.

    Since then, she bolted up at Epsom in a race she was entitled to win (though she clocked some fast sectionals this day) and then she blew off the cobwebs at Chelmsford in April.

    Although she’s unsuccessful in two handicap contests, she finished second in the first one at Sandown where she ran into a Sir Mark Prescott horse who had recently stepped up in trip.

    Strong Impact was also boxed in for a while and the winner got the first run on her, so his performance was better than the bare result.

    Back on the turf, the return to eight furlongs is interesting as her dam won on good to firm over a mile, so this change in distance doesn’t put me off.

     

    2:40 Ascot – The Wizard Of Eye @ 7/1 with Bet365 (6 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Victoria Cup, the trainer change from Stan Moore to Charlie Fellowes makes The Wizard Of Eye extremely interesting off a career-low mark of 99.

    Still with the same connections as before (minus former trainer Stan Moore), the five-year-old is a Group-level performer who struggled to land a blow last season.

    The Galileo Gold chestnut has had a gelding operation since his last run in September 2023 and he has a good record when fresh as his two best performances on RPRs came when returning from a break.

    He also ran in last season’s Group 1 Lockinge Stakes and he was one of the last to come off the bridle, but Kieran Shoemark found himself in too much traffic, so ninth was the best he could secure.

    The conditions of a Victoria Cup (strong pace, good ground, straight seven furlongs) should play to his strengths and if Fellowes has got any improvement out of him, he has plenty of scope to do damage of a mark of 99.

     

    3:50 Haydock – Indian Run @ 13/2 with Boylesports – 1pt EW

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    Finally, in order not to make this an Ascot-exclusive betting column, I’m chancing the three-year-old Indian Run in the Listed Spring Trophy Stakes at Haydock.

    Although a three-year-old hasn’t scored in this race over the last 10 years, Holguin nearly won last year’s renewal and Happy Power ran a good race in 2019.

    Comparably, this year’s rendition looks like a winnable race and Indian Run made a good impression at York last year when he won the Group 3 Acomb Stakes.

    He beat Ballymount Boy that day, form that looks good as he won a Listed race on his next start and he was second to Vandeek in the Group 2 Richmond Stakes.

    Furthermore, his debut run has worked out well as the winner, Starlust, finished third in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint behind Big Evs and the second, Array, subsequently won the Group 2 Mill Reef Stakes.

    With a few in here wanting slightly softer conditions, he’ll like the quick ground and he gets 12lbs from his elders.

  • Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    Epsom Derby Weekend Preview: Ante-post analysis

    The endless weeks of build-up have drawn to a close as it is the week of the Epsom Derby.

    The two-day event around the undulations of the Surrey-based track is just a few days away and we at Bestofbets.com can’t wait.

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    For me, the last few weeks of the Ante-post Analysis series have seen some good success; THE FOXES winning the Dante and CAIRO placing in the Irish 2000 Guineas are the main highlights.

    And as for last week’s The Top Three column, well, we will be discussing that on Friday.

    I won’t get too ahead of myself as you have to take the peaks and troughs with a good degree of level-headedness in this game, so I’m sure I’ll come crashing back down to Earth sooner than I would like.

    Hopefully, it is not this week as I have a few early fancies for the Epsom Derby weekend.

     

    Keen on the Queen

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    The Princess Elizabeth Stakes on Saturday looks to be a cracking contest at the time of writing with 10 entered for the £100,000 race.

    Although another one of my cliff horses, Prosperous Voyage, is at the head of the market, my head has been turned by a different four-year-old filly.

    QUEEN AMINATU shaped like a filly going placed last time out on the all-weather as she stayed on behind an on-song Sacred over seven furlongs at Lingfield.

    That form, in my eyes, is worth a good deal in a race like this as she was three-wide around the bend having finished third to Sandrine, a Group 2 winner, and Sacred, a horse who has all the attributes of a Group 1 filly when she is 100%.

    Furthermore, on her only start at a mile, she blitzed her competition at Lingfield, a race that included Oscula, a three-time Group 3 winner.

    Although most of her form is on the all-weather, her second on good ground over a mile at Haydock last season gives me hope that she will handle conditions on Saturday.

    If she can continue her progression, it will take a good one to beat her and the 8/1 available with BetVictor is a good price.

     

    One better than Silver

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    It’s almost like I’m living in a world of deja-vu as my next fancy was put up here two weeks ago before being declared a non-runner.

    Alas, having heard that this has always been the target, I’m willing to go back in on SILVER SWORD at 12/1.

    His case is obvious on one piece of form alone as his fifth to Military Order three starts ago reads extremely well, something that could see another boost if Godolphin’s Derby hope obliges earlier on the card.

    Following that run, a good second to Empress Wu and a facile victory at Southwell has only bolstered his claims.

    Now returning to 1m2f, something that should suit on pedigree as his dam (Aurora Grey) won three times over two miles, he could make light work of his official rating of 82.

    It is a competitive field and he does need one horse to come out to run, but hopefully that occurs and he can light up the Downs.

     

    Bring down the House

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    And finally, in a showering of repetition, my final ante-post play of Derby Weekend is a horse whom I put up at York two weeks ago.

    He finished fifth on seasonal reappearance at the Dante meeting, something I hope puts him spot on for the Dash on Saturday.

    That’s right, I’m sticking with CLARENDON HOUSE at 7/1 with William Hill.

    Despite running a career-best according to RPRs, the five-year-old was dropped two pounds by the handicapper for his last run.

    For a horse who travelled like the winner for three furlongs, received three reminders from Daniel Muscutt, and just emptied on his first start for 240 days, the run at York was very pleasing.

    On pure numbers, his second at Beverley two starts ago when eight pounds wrong at the weights with Acklam Express (3rd) was great and the second to Raasel last season, a horse who would go on to improve 15 pounds, when giving five pounds away shines brightly.

    Now rated 100, just one pound higher than his last winning mark, the test of Epsom should suit, and he is my fancy for the Dash on Epsom Derby weekend.

  • 33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    33/1 Victoria Cup Pick: The Top Three

    Welcome to a new weekly column of mine where I talk about my three best bets for the weekend’s action.

    Alongside my ante-post analysis piece that is released on Wednesdays looking at any potential early angles into marquee races, this regular content will be released on Fridays with all the confirmed weather and declarations information available to me to make my final judgments.

    12/1 Chester Cup Fancy: Ante-post analysis

    I’ve given myself a ‘points’ staking plan to keep track of how I have done and how confident each play will be, all of which will be recorded and put at the bottom of every article. No pressure then!

    So with the admin out of the way, let’s get into the action.

     

    ONEMOREFORTHEROAD 12/1 – 3:15 Haydock – 0.5pt EW

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    It may be the Flat season right now, but the Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock has taken a small amount of my interest as I will be having a 0.5pt EW play on ONEMOREFORTHEROAD for Neil King and Jack Quinlan.

    Although his last win came in December 2021 in the Intermediate Hurdle, the eight-year-old has only raced seven times since and his third to Anna Bunina in the 2022 Scottish Champion Hurdle reads well considering John McConnell’s mare has improved 16lbs since.

    Although his last two efforts on Good ground have been poor, he has been dropped six pounds for them and he did most of his winning on Good ground in the early parts of his career.

    With a rating of 127, which is nine pounds below that third at Ayr in 2022 and his last winning mark, King’s charge in the highlight handicap hurdle is my main fancy in the contest.

     

    TOIMY SON 33/1 – 2:40 Ascot – 1pt EW

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    My second biggest play of the weekend comes in the ever-tricky Victoria Cup and I’m giving the rank-outsider of the field, TOIMY SON, a chance at 33/1 with William Hill.

    I backed this four-year-old Twilight Son colt last time out in the Spring Cup at Newbury over a mile and he looked to be too keen which ultimately downplayed his chances of winning the race.

    I was quite confident of a big run last month, unfortunately, the market was not in agreement with me as he drifted out on the exchanges and was sent off at an SP of 40/1.

    So, why am I giving him a chance this week in the Victoria Cup?

    Firstly, there is only a small window of opportunity to run this horse as he needs soft ground, something he will get at Ascot this week, but as the summer rolls into full view, that chance of rain and slower conditions will diminish.

    Secondly, he is back down in trip to seven furlongs, the distance he was last seen winning at in Longchamp last May and hopefully, he won’t be so keen over a shorter trip.

    And finally, French jockey Cristian Demuro is jocked up on the bay for his only ride of the day which is a big jockey booking from David Menusier as he was the pilot that guided Toimy Son to success in that Longchamp race last year, a race where he beat Txope who went on to win the German 1000 Guineas on her next start.

    Taking this all in and harking back to his runners-up effort behind Mangoustine, a future French 1000 Guineas winner, as a two-year-old, I think he can run a big race off a workable mark of 102 in the Victoria Cup.

     

    ANGEL BLEU 15/8 – 3:50 Haydock – 3pt Win

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    This position was taken by Sea Of Roses for the Lingfield Oaks Trial but the switch to all-weather has meant she was not declared, however, ANGEL BLEU is a more than worthy substitute.

    If you can ignore his last run in France, I think he should be odds-on and not just a shade below 2/1.

    Firstly, the ground at Haydock is set to be the best in the country as the official going description is Good to Soft with no rain in sight.

    Despite his win at Saint-Cloud in October 2021 on Very Soft ground, I think his best form comes on better surfaces as his four-length fifth to Baaeed in last year’s Sussex Stakes and third to Perfect Power in last year’s Greenham Stakes would suggest.

    His pedigree would back this statement up being by Dark Angel (the 2007 Middle Park winner on Good ground) out of a Galileo mare.

    Now a four-year-old and still at somewhere near his best as shown by his unlucky runners-up effort to Berkshire Shadow at Wolverhampton two starts ago, Ralph Beckett’s contender is best at the weight by six pounds to his nearest market rival, Al Mubhir, and with a sounder surface under his feet than his run last time out, I think he will be tough to beat at 15/8.