Tag: Cheltenham 2023

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ā€˜sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.

    Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.

    We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.

     

    2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.

    The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.

    On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.

    They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.

    It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.

    If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.

    The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).

    He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.

    Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.

    He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.

    Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.

    Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.

    He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.

    Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.

    Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.

    Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.

    On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

    As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.

    On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.

    She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.

    She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.

    Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.

    Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.

    As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.

    George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)

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    I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.

    Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ā€˜hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.

    He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.

    There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.

    The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.

    As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.

    That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.

    Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.

    Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.

  • Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    Cheltenham November Meeting | Teague in a Breeze

    It’s always a good weekend when Prestbury Park is alive with action, especially when the headline event is the Cheltenham November Meeting.

    With the Paddy Power Gold Cup as the star act on Saturday, Friday is a nice introduction for a good weekend and I have three fancies for the action on ITV and Racing TV.

     

    1:45 Cheltenham – Ballybreeze @ 5/1 General – 2pt EW

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    The Mucking Brilliant Paddy Power Handicap Chase (great name) looks like a fascinating race over two miles with Calico, the 4/1 favourite, bringing form with Jonbon to the table while Triple Trade is progressing at a good rate of knots for Joe Tizzard.

    Away from these two, Ballybreeze is a horse I’ve wanted to see for a while and he finally gets his opportunity in the shadows of Cleeve Hill.

    The seven-year-old by Schiaparelli raced just three times last season and kicked off his campaign with a facile success at Chepstow after a 218-day break.

    Following a 139-day break, connections sent Ballybreeze to the Arkle at the Cheltenham Festival at 150/1.

    Although he was last home, Samual Drinkwater’s Ā£8,000 purchase travelled at Grade 1 pace for a while – unlike Hollow Games – before fading.

    Following his Grade 1 test, Ballybreeze went to Market Rasen and looked like the winner before over-jumping the third last and falling.

    With a good summer on his back, he looks very well-handicapped off 120 and with his ability to perform well fresh, he looks like a standout bet at 11/2.

     

    3:30 Cheltenham – Captain Teague @ 4/6 General – 4pt Win

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    This isn’t a revolutionary or unique pick, but due to the lack of betting angles in the other races, Captain Teague makes the list as a good bet on Friday.

    The five-year-old by Doyen has a lot to like coming into the Grade 2 Trustatrader Novices’ Hurdle, notably the fact he won the Grade 2 Persian War Novices’ Hurdle on his debut over obstacles.

    Although he looked to guess at a few hurdles, his jumping improved throughout the contest and that run was his first piece of schooling on grass due to the quick ground back in Ditcheat.

    Therefore, he will hopefully show a better level of consistency at Cheltenham and, in turn, an even higher standard of performance.

    Furthermore, the form of his third in the Grade 1 Champion Bumper continues to get better as the fourth, fifth, ninth, eleventh, twelfth, thirteenth, and fourteenth have all won impressively since.

    If you are looking to take a risk for some potential value, I think Kinbara is a nice horse for John McConnell and the 4/1 straight forecast could be an interesting play, but as for the sole selection, hopefully Captain Teague can show his class.

     

    4:05 Cheltenham – Impose Toi @ 3/1 @ William Hill – 1pt Win

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    Nicky Henderson could be on for a good weekend with his JP McManus-owned horses if both Jonbon in the Shloer Chase and Iberico Lord in the Greatwood Hurdle oblige willingly.

    However, looking at the more immediate future, the trainer-owner partnership has a good chance to kick the weekend off well with Impose Toi in the finale on Friday.

    The five-year-old gelding is making his handicap debut having bolted up in a novice hurdle over 2m5f at Ludlow in May while carrying a penalty.

    That win came after an average run at Huntingdon behind Brentford Hope, though the form has worked out as Brentford Hope skated in at Newbury by 15 lengths on his seasonal reappearance last week.

    Although Impose Toi has 11-12 to carry around Prestbury Park, he is unexposed and has good form on soft ground due to his two victories in France for Daniela Mele.

    This could be a tough task on his handicap debut, but I think he could be too classy and I’m willing to take that chance at 3/1.

  • Cheltenham October Meeting Tips | In Byrnes we trust

    Cheltenham October Meeting Tips | In Byrnes we trust

    The Cheltenham October Meeting signifies that the jumps are well and truly back in town.

    Whether you love seeing two-mile hurdlers rattle around the banked course of Prestbury Park, or you prefer watching a three-mile chasing slug it out from the front, the home of jump racing has a bit of everything today.

    As is the case every week, the three horses below are my strongest fancies on what is a tricky day at HQ.

    1:15 Cheltenham – Haddex Des Obeaux @ 5/2 – 1pt Win

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    The opening contest at Cheltenham is a great two-mile handicap chase with horses like Before Midnight, Red Rookie, and Notlongtillmay providing good depth.

    That being said, I’m with the favourite to kick off the day as Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I have lots of time for.

    The French-bred six-year-old had a turbulent season for Gary Moore last season thanks to two victories, one unlucky second, and an unseating on seasonal debut.

    However, the class he showed on his last two starts of the season proved to many why he could be a Graded horse in time.

    The first of which occurred at Doncaster where he made all to beat Coastguard Staton, Nero Rock and Datsalrightgino, the latter being a horse who is rated 11 pounds higher and is a Grade 2-winning novice chaser.

    Less than three weeks later, he jumped brilliantly on heavy ground to bolt up by 19 lengths before he suffered a setback and Moore called time on his season.

    Off an official rating of 146 today, it looks as if connections have a horse for Graded races further down the line so making use of his lenient handicap mark is a good way to kick off the season.

    Although In Excelsis Deo looks like an interesting proposition on just his fifth start over fences for Harry Fry and is probably the each-way angle into a race like this, Haddex Des Obeaux is a horse I like and hopefully, he can reward my love for him in the opener.

    3:00 Cheltenham – Gortmillish @ 12/1 – 1pt EW

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    As is the case with many Pertemps Qualifiers, they are tough races to find a strong bet in, though the 12/1 price of Gortmillish has caught my attention.

    Trained by Gordon Elliott, someone who is partial to a Cheltenham winner at The Showcase, the seven-year-old comes to Prestbury Park with the standard Irish tax applied to his handicap mark, though the five-pound claim of Danny Gilligan (on his only ride at Cheltenham today) should help diminish that.

    The three-mile point-to-point winner scored twice for Cullentra House Stables over hurdles in the summer; once over two miles when well-fancied at Perth and once over 2m6f at Downpatrick three weeks later.

    The form of his success two starts ago has worked out well since as the second, Charlie Luciano, beat Elliott’s Calico on his next start and the third, Lisnamult Lad, now has an official rating of 131 having bolted up by a combined 44.5 lengths on his next two starts for John McConnell.

    For a horse rated 123 over in the UK, that in isolation makes him look like a well-handicapped horse, and the fact he finished a staying-on second to My Mate Mozzie in at Punchestown bumper in April 2021 further adds to that idea.

    If Elliott thinks Gortmillish could be a potential for the Pertemps Final in March, winning today would help improve his handicap mark to make sure he gets into the race, so today could be the day to catch him.

    3:35 Cheltenham – Reverend Hubert @ 4/1 – 2pt Win

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    The Irish have a strong hand in the three-mile novice hurdle later today, though I’m steering away from the head of the market and putting my trust in Reverend Hubert for Charles and Philip Byrnes.

    Firstly, I think that Willie Mullins’ High Class Hero is quite a smart novice hurdler, so it comes with the territory that if a horse can get to within six lengths of him, they might be above average.

    That’s what Reverend Hubert did on his last start 35 days ago on the softer-than-ideal ground at Listowel having travelled well into the race around the outside of the field.

    High Class Hero bolted up by seven lengths on his next start, franking the form for Charles Byrnes’ five-year-old.

    The former Richard Hannon-trained gelding, who achieved a career-high mark of 86 on the Flat in 2022, broke his maiden tag over hurdles when a facile eight-length winner at Downpatrick on good ground in August; the second, Ringdufferin, won two-on-the-bounce after that and actually runs in the Pertemps Qualifier in the race before.

    With form over two miles on the Flat, I see no reason why Reverend Hubert won’t stay three miles and his experience could see him get the better of Antrim Coast, Gavin Cromwell’s thrice-raced five-year-old who heads the market.

  • Punchestown Festival Day One & Two Bets

    Punchestown Festival Day One & Two Bets

    Last week was a good week for the ante-post analysis column.

    SAIL AWAY at 6/1 duly obliged in some style at Ayr thanks to a brilliant Bridget Andrews ride and both MILKWOOD and EMPIRE STEEL had good spins in their relative races.

    With Scotland’s big day now behind us, we head to Punchestown for the final big spring festival of the national hunt season and although Willie Mullins looks to have a stronghold on all five days, there are a few interesting bets.

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    Here are my angles into the first two days of the Punchestown Festival.

     

    Hopes with PaulĀ 

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    The opening race of the week is one of the most interesting contests of the whole five-day event with the market at 11/4 the field.

    Runners who have gone to Cheltenham and Fairyhouse collide with contenders who come into this fresh and it’s Martin Brassil’s WALK WITH PAUL at 9/1 that holds my biggest interest.

    Plenty in here – Shecouldbeanything, Nikini, and The Model Kingdom – all come into the race from having run at the Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle at Cheltenham and the form has taken a bit of a whacking since, so I’d be weary to be looking at these runners.

    WALK IN PAUL arrives at Punchestown having finished very close to the useful Deeply Superficial at Limerick on her last run while giving two pounds away to the winner – Deeply Superficial did run a good race at Cheltenham considering she came back lame having pulled up after the second-last.

    If you can forgive the run behind Corbetts Cross and Find A Fifty at Naas in February, a race that looks good on form anyway, then her maiden hurdle win in January was very promising, displaying a good level of speed and jumping throughout.

    Martin Brassil is a trainer whom I rate highly and he has been good at these spring festivals so far this year thanks to his two close seconds at Cheltenham, so with her in receipt of three pounds from some of the field, she could be there at the finish.

     

    A Classic winnerĀ 

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    The first Classics of the flat season are just around the corner with the Guineas at Newmarket occurring next weekend, however, my mind is on another Classic in the form of a Cheveley Park runner today as CLASSIC GETAWAY at 7/2 is the way I want to play the Dooley Insurance Group Champion Novice Chase.

    The seven-year-old hasn’t been seen since his beginners’ chase win in November, however, on bare form alone, he had JOURNEY WITH ME, a horse who reappears here, beaten at the second-last before he fell as well as finishing ahead of stablemate MINELLA COCOONER who was a runner-up twice in two Grade 1 hurdle races last season.

    I think there is plenty of scope to take on his owner and stablemate Sir Gerhard in the fact that I’m not convinced that he is a true stayer or as good as people think he is and his run behind Flame Bearer over 2m4f at Fairyhouse last time out, just 16 days ago, looked very laboured to my eye.

    Journey With Me is the worthy favourite in the fact that he is very consistent but we are still yet to see him perform in Grade 1 company and the rest of the field, bar JAMES DU BERLAIS who looks to be overpriced at 12/1, wouldn’t be to my liking.

    If he is 100% for today, which would be a small concern considering he has had more setbacks than runs in the last 12 months, I think he will take a lot of beating with the mustard man Danny Mullins in the saddle.

     

    Royalty to retain thrownĀ 

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    And finally, day two at the Punchestown Festival is difficult in the Grade 1s but I’m turning to the 2m5f handicap chase at 7:05 for a scummy each-way play as I think ROYAL RENDEZVOUS looks very interesting back in the race he won 12 months ago.

    The 11-year-old was very good last year to sneak up the nearside rail under Paul Townend and win off a five-pound higher mark than he will have to carry this time around and it seems to be great placing from the team at Closutton to get him down from a high-mark of 165 by running him in three Graded races since – their hand was slightly forced due to his rating, however.

    You’d have to say that even though he has yet to show too much promise in his three runs since, a good pipe-opener last time out at Fairyhouse should have him spot-on for the €100,000 contest and with William Hill going 6/1 about him on a very workable mark, he sets the standard in this nine-runner field and looks to be a sneaky each-way play on a tough day of racing at Punchestown.

     

  • 14/1 Scottish Grand National Tip: Ante-post analysis

    14/1 Scottish Grand National Tip: Ante-post analysis

    This weekend sees us go from Aintree to Ayr as we turn our attention to a Scottish rendition of the Grand National, a race brilliantly won last year by Christian Williams’ Win My Wings.

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    After the high-drama issues and performances both on and off the track over the weekend at horse racing’s biggest singular day, the Scottish Grand National homes into view to draw our attention away from the regular debates occurring between us and those of an opposing view.

    With that being said, I have three horses at 6/1, 14/1, and 14/1 to highlight for BestofBets.com that are set to run in Scotland on Saturday.

    Let’s dive in.

     

    Sailing to success

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    My first fancy for the weekend comes in the Novices’ Champion Handicap Chase and I’ll be taking a swing at Dan Skelton’s SAIL AWAY at 6/1 to continue his progression.

    Having finished second when giving six pounds away to the future two-time Ultima winner and Grand National successor, Corach Rambler, in October 2021, this gallant grey looks like he’ll relish a good three miles at a course that promotes precise jumping, something Sail Away has locked down.

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    When receiving his correct conditions of better ground and three miles, the Martaline gelding has finished second to Dusart in a novice chase at Leicester, third in a competitive handicap chase at Aintree, and easily won a three-runner Warwick contest.

    His second to Jetoile last time out reads well considering it was over the wrong distance on slow ground and that run last month should have him 100% for Ayr on Saturday.

    At 6/1, taking into account the horses he has run into and the performances he has consistently been putting in for nearly two years, Sail Away looks like a solid proposition in the second race of the day.

     

    The former champion is back

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    I’m going to the Scottish Champion Hurdle at 2:25 for the second ante-post fancy of the weekend and it looks to be a very competitive field thanks to Colonel Mustard, Nemean Lion, and Iceo.

    Before I give my fancy, I think ANNA BUNINA at 8/1 has got a good chance. She has constantly been improving from her win in this race last year and back on better ground, her form with Gaelic Warrior and Queens Brook reads well off a mark of 142.

    However, it’s the 2021 champion MILKWOOD who gets the nod from me at 14/1.

    He pulled up on his last start in the County Hurdle on ground that wouldn’t have been too favourable and with the surface set to be quick enough on Saturday, he should get his correct conditions.

    Neil Mulholland’s nine-year-old won this race two years ago off a four-pound higher mark and was a not-too-distant fifth in the 2022 renewal of the contest off a 12-pound higher mark.

    He has been performing well this season and looked to be going well in the competitive Swinton Handicap Hurdle at Haydock in May before falling two-out, so at a course he seems to thrive off, on ground that will be suitable, and with a workable handicap mark, 14/1 seems a reasonable price for this former winner.

     

    A Steel of a price

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    And finally, following his victory over Coral Gold Cup victor Le Milos last time out,Ā EMPIRE STEELĀ is the horse for me in the feature race of the weekend, the Scottish Grand National, at 14/1.

    I always thought this horse was waiting to land a big handicap event so to see him win a Listed race when beating the Dan Skelton runner at Kelso when seven pounds wrong at the weights was surprising, however, the handicapper has potentially let him off with one by only raising him four pounds for the effort.

    This gallant grey was second to the useful Potterman in March 2022 off a one-pound higher mark in a race that was run over 3m2f on good ground; he kept on at the finish that day which shows promise that he could handle a marathon trip on decent ground.

    Furthermore, not too long ago, this nine-year-old beat Protektorat in a novice chase at Kelso in the same year that he fell at the fourth-last in the 2021 Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby when clearly going the best.

    Empire Steel is in the best form of his life and off a mark of 145, he is capable of producing a career-best effort when he needs it the most.

  • Grand National 2023: Ante-post analysis

    Grand National 2023: Ante-post analysis

    Well, Cheltenham has been and gone like the revolving circus that it is and the national hunt season is slowly, but surely, dwindling away as we head into the height of the summer.

    Royal Ascot and the Epsom Derby seem like they are arriving quicker than anyone would like, however, we still have Aintree’s Grand National extravaganza to look forward to.

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    With the meeting becoming its own mini ā€˜Festival’ now, here are the horses from the three-day event that Ash Symonds of BestofBets.com will be looking to keep on the side of.

     

    Grand National: Roi Mage 50/1Ā 

    We are starting with my captain of the meeting, the horse that will be leading the troops into battle, and the competitor that if it wins, I’ll be talking about for many years to come.

    That’s right, I will be on the side of Patrick Griffin’s ROI MAGE for the blue-ribboned event, the Grand National.

    Now, I wouldn’t blame you for not knowing this horse very well, however, there is a strong case to be made.

    Before this 11-year-old moved to Griffin in 2022, he ran some very good races over the water in some of the top races in France for his previous trainer, a stint that included a good fourth in the 2021 Grade 2 Grand Steeple-Chase de Compiegne when giving weight away and a facile win in the Listed Prix The Stomp Chase at Compiegne.

    Since moving over to Ireland, he beat Augusta Gold and Samcro at Down Royal in March 2022 when wrong at the weights, finished a good third in the 2022 Grand Steeple-Chase-Cross-Country de Compiegne, was running a good race at Cheltenham Trials Day before falling at the 20th, and he gave five pounds away to Longhouse Poet and Burrows Saint at Down Royal when finishing a close second.

    The form looks very favourable in my eyes and will carry 10-8, his lowest racing weight for five years.

    All things considered, 50/1 is massive and connections are quite sweet on his chances, as shared by assistant trainer James Griffin in the recent Only Fools Love Horses video sponsored by us at BestofBets.com (23:30-36:00).

     

    Liverpool Hurdle: Champ 7/1

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    I’m interested in CHAMP for the Liverpool Hurdle due to the power of deduction.

    Time and time again, we see horses who have had hard races at the Cheltenham Festival underperform at Aintree – looking at just last year, L’Homme Presse, Thyme Hill, Protektorat, and even Champ all ran well below their best having performed at a good level the month before.

    Looking at the Grade 1 Liverpool Hurdle, Teahupoo, Flooring Porter, Sire Du Berlais, Dashel Drasher, and Home By The Lee all ran in the Stayers Hurdle whilst Marie’s Rock ran in the Mares’ Hurdle and Thyme Hill ran in the Brown Advisory Novices’ Chase.

    All of these horses could show up at Aintree for the three-mile Grade 1 hurdle having run at Cheltenham which leaves just Champ who hasn’t run since his third to Paisley Park in the Long Walk Hurdle on Boxing Day.

    The Nicky Henderson-trained gelding has an impeccable record when fresh, a stat that reads 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1, 2, 1, 1 when running after a 70+ day layoff.

    With that in mind, this relatively lightly-raced 11-year-old could outrun his odds of 7/1 if he is on song again, however, I would be fearful of Teahupoo from the market rivals as he is probably the best horse in the race and if he turns out well from Cheltenham, a Stayers’ Hurdle that was run in attritional conditions, he could be the one to upset Champ’s party and if you are happy to back both in the same race, I wouldn’t put you off that.

     

    Aintree Bowl: Conflated 9/2

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    This year’s Aintree Bowl over three miles could be one of the hottest renewals of the contest for the last few years as Shishkin, Ahoy Senor, Bravemansgame, Conflated, and A Plus Tard are all prominent in the betting market at the time of writing.

    The former would be stepping up to this distance for the first time in his career and all of the others ran in the Cheltenham Gold Cup, with Bravemansgame finishing a good second to Galopin Des Champs.

    All will go to the race with live chances, but I’d be keen to give Conflated a chance at 9/2.

    Taking in the conditions of the race, I’d say Gordon Elliott’s runner is the second-best horse of the group and is still improving, as shown by his good third in the blue-ribboned event at the Festival when finding a bit of trouble in running under Sam Ewing, a jockey who only knew he was going to be riding him 20 minutes before the race after Davy Russell stood himself down for the day.

    The one query I’d have about his run last time out is I wasn’t sure how well he saw out the 3m2f of the Cheltenham test, but back to three miles on a flat track in a race he was second in last year (he should have won if he was more prominent), I think all things lead to him running a good race.

    The only horse that might just have the edge over him is Bravemansgame and it seems like connections are lining up this contest for their King George winner, however, I’d have a small query about how hard a race he had in the Gold Cup and whether he can bounce back to that form again.

    Conflated should be fine reappearing at Aintree so soon after Cheltenham as he did the same last year when falling in the Ryanair at the penultimate fence before finishing second in this race.

    So, it’s my cliff horse that gets the nod for me.

     

    Mersey Novices’ Hurdle: Letsbeclearaboutit 14/1

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    To finish off my Grade 1 fancies, I’ll be taking a swing at Letsbeclearaboutit for Gavin Cromwell in the Mersey on Saturday.

    He is trying 2m4f for the very first time having won a bumper nicely as a six-year-old over two miles as well as a good second to American Mike over 2m6f in 2022.

    Since then, he has ran into the top staying novices in the hurdling division this season over three miles and he ran a great race in the Albert Bartlett for all he maybe didn’t truly see out the trip.

    He has shown plenty of gears from his bumper victory and throughout all his races this season and even in his 22-length victory two starts ago, there is obviously a good power unit there.

    At this new trip that I think could bring out improvement, I’ll be siding with him alongside DARK RAVEN at 13/1 for Willie Mullins who has been crying out for a step up in trip and he ran a belting race in the Supreme for 80% of the race before being caught for a bit of speed at the finish.

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    An extra four furlongs will be perfect for him, in my opinion, so those two horses are where I’ll be keeping my faith with.

    Handicap fancies

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    There are also a few in handicaps that are grabbing my interest.

    In the Topham Handicap Chase over the national fences, I’ll be chancing PHOENIX WAY at 16/1 for JP McManus.

    He’s down to a low mark of 138 having finished second to Annsam in December 2021, a horse who has now improved 15lbs since, before an easy win at Ascot in January 2022 off 140.

    Back to a middle-distance trip of the Topham and off this low mark, he should be very competitive at 16/1.

    And finally, and stick with me on this one, I think that JASON THE MILITANT could be ready to step back to his former glory in the William Hill Handicap Hurdle at 2:20 on Friday.

    Having been a Grade 1 horse at one point in his career, he moved from Henry de Bromhead to Philip Kirby at the start of the year and has now dropped down to a mark of 146.

    Joe Williamson is set to claim five pounds off his back and if the ground turns up soft, something that could happen with the incoming rain on Thursday, this horse off an effective mark of 141, having run a super race on Trials Day off an eight-pound higher mark over the wrong distance, is big enough at 66/1 for me to take a swing.

  • Irish Grand National Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    Irish Grand National Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    For the opening week of my ante-post column for BestofBets.com, I’m happy with how things turned out with the Irish Grand National just around the corner.

    Saga wasn’t declared – but if anyone followed me on my Twitter (@ASymondsJourno) they would have found the Lincoln winner with Migration -, Sleeping Lion ran okay but couldn’t get past fifth, and Fast Response, put up at 12/1, went off the 4/1 joint-favourite and finished second to Vadream.

    All in all, a fair weekend.

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    With this in mind, while many will be on Easter egg hunts all weekend, I have been on the hunt for a few ante-post winners and I have a few horses leading the line.

    However, I did take a deep look into all of the action over on the latest Only Fools Love Horses video, which was sponsored by BestofBets.com.

    So, let’s dive in.

     

    All hail the King

    HORSE: King Of Bavaria

    RACE: tote World Pool Scottish Sprint Cup (Saturday, 3:00)

    PRICE: 12/1

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    This is a very nice race and I’ve had to wait until Wednesday to pull the trigger as he was entered for the all-weather finals at Newcastle, however, connections have not declared him, and it looks like they are set to run him on the turf up at Musselburgh instead.

    With 6-10mm of rain predicted across Wednesday and Thursday, the already Good to Soft ground could end up being soft by the time racing starts.

    With that in mind, KING OF BAVARIA looks to be unexposed off a mark of 97 for Michael Appleby.

    The former Aidan O’Brien gelding was a $300,000 yearling and sold to Craig & Laura Buckingham for one-sixth of that price four months ago.

    For the master of Ballydoyle, he won his first two starts on the track on soft ground and ran a good race in defeat when looking a bit green in the Listed Committed Stakes at Navan behind New York City, Cadamosto, and Straight Answer, all horses who are rated between 105 and 110.

    Following an average autumn in handicaps over in Ireland and one appearance in the Group 3 Renaissance Stakes, he moved over to the UK this winter.

    Two conservative runs at Southwell and Lingfield preceded a nice run over six furlongs last time out at Newcastle off Saturday’s handicap mark and a return to five furlongs on turf should see him at his best.

    For reference, he won a Naas handicap on heavy ground on his second start off a two-pound lower mark and he looked impressive then, so for this former 105-rated gelding, I hope he can be competitive on Saturday.

     

    Grand price in the National

    HORSE: Champagne Platinum

    RACE: Boylesports Irish Grand National

    PRICE: 33/1

    There are two horses heading my fancies for the Irish National, both at varying ends of the handicap.

    The main selection is CHAMPAGNE PLATINUM for Enda Bolger in the famous green and gold silks of JP McManus.

    Having finished a staying-on eighth last year off a three-pound lower mark, this nine-year-old ran a super race behind a trio of Gigginstown horses in the Grand National Trial at Punchestown in February.

    The ground is set to be very testing at the Irish track on Monday and this gelding has good form in softer conditions having finished second to Death Duty last year off a one-pound higher mark after beating Ain’t That A Shame, the now 146-rated horse, in a beginners’ chase the start before.

    All of the reasons mentioned above would point to a big run, it’s a competitive race, but I’m willing to side with the gallant grey for the €500,000 contest.

    However, flying the flag for the British in the race, 25/1 about ROYALE PAGAILLE is extremely interesting to me.

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    What are the defining factors that this Venetia Williams-trainer nine-year-old needs? A marathon trip. Check. Bottomless ground. Check. A handicap. Check.

    Believe it or not, Royale Pagaille’s official mark of 160 is his lowest handicap rating for two years and having bolted up in the 2022 Peter Marsh Handicap Chase on soft ground off 163, he looks to be well-in.

    A 16-length victory in the 2021 renewal of the formerly mentioned Peter Marsh off just a four-pound lower rating on heavy ground also reads extremely well and he holds a 100% record in handicaps, a stat that not many horses can reel off.

    I wouldn’t put anyone off backing both horses each way at 33/1 and 25/1 respectively, and the more I look at it, the more I’m getting excited about the latter.

  • Lincoln Handicap Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    Lincoln Handicap Weekend: Ante-post analysis

    Hello all!

    For those of you who may have missed this, I began writing for BestofBets just before and during the Cheltenham Festival, and having put on a flawless display of handicap fancies throughout the week (they all lost), Bestofbets has brought me back to redeem myself with my weekly column previewing the weekend’s racing from an ante-post perspective.

    Now, in my defense, four of the horses picked up each-way money with online bookmakers, but still, a disappointing effort nonetheless at jump racing’s Olympics.

    And what a week to bring me back as it’s the start of the flat season proper with Doncaster’s Lincoln Handicap taking centre stage.

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    I can’t wait for the flat season, not because I hate the jumps (I am actually a jumps man through and through), but as with every new season, the excitement of seeing what these horses can do on the big stage is a feeling that can’t quite be described.

    So, without any more delay, here are three horses I’m keen on for the Lincoln weekend beginning Saturday, April 1st.

     

    Quick into stride

    HORSE: Fast Response

    RACE: Pertemps Network Cammidge Trophy Stakes (3:00 Doncaster)

    PRICE: 14/1 with William Hill

    It’s only taken me until the third race of the turf season to nail my colours to the mast and those colours happen to be the black and white of Nick Bradley Racing as FAST RESPONSE is of good interest to me.

    The four-year-old Fast Company offspring is one of three fillies in the line-up, so she receives a five-pound allowance from the boys, however, having won a Listed race after August 31st, 2022, she has a three-pound penalty on top of that.

    Looking closer at her last run, she was very good on heavy ground over course and distance to win by two lengths.

    She was officially nine pounds wrong at the weights the third, Art Power, and 12 pounds wrong with Commanche Falls, the fifth who reappears here, because of her three-year-old and fillies allowances.

    She has yet to lose on ground slower than soft from her four runs in the conditions with one of those occurring on just her second start, a Winsdor maiden over six furlongs when she beat El Bodegon, now trained by Chris Waller, who was a Grade 1-winning juvenile.

    All form points to her and at 14/1, I will be siding with her.

     

    For King and country in the feature

    HORSE: Saga

    RACE: Pertemps Network Lincoln Handicap (3:35 Doncaster)

    PRICE: 14/1 with William Hill

    John & Thady Gosden’s SAGA is a horse I have had a mixed relationship with over the last season as I was an unfortunate backer of his when he was second by a head in the Britannia Stakes at Royal Ascot last year.

    It maybe wasn’t Frankie Dettori’s finest ride that day, but he was still brandished with an eight-pound hike in the weights for his next run, the Porsche Handicap, where he was eighth.

    Following a mediocre Clipper Logistics run and a promising run behind Algiers, the now Dubai World Cup runner-up, at York in October, the four-year-old is now down to a mark of 102 and has the brilliant Benoit De La Sayette claiming three pounds off his back, so on Saturday, he will effectively only be two pounds higher than his Royal Ascot second.

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    The softer conditions at Doncaster for the Lincoln may not be to his absolute liking, but the team at Clarehaven Stables in Newmarket has given him a gelding operation over the winter and his form from last season to run into three eventual Guineas winners in Maljoom, Coroebus, and Modern Games reads very well.

    I’ll be in his camp for the feature.

    However, and this is a big however, if ISLA KAI gets into the race (he currently needs nine to come out ahead of him to get a run) then I will also be backing him.

    He loves softer conditions and is down to a mark of 92 – he is good first time out and if he gets a run, 40/1 is massive about this Nigel Tinkler five-year-old.

    If he doesn’t get a run, he will most likely take in the Spring Mile (the Lincoln consolation race) earlier on the card and I will be backing him for that race as soon as markets open after declarations.

     

    All-weather action

    HORSE: Sleeping Lion

    RACE: Racing TV Queen’s Prize Handicap (3:15 Kempton)

    PRICE: 12/1

    My final thoughts come from the decent action at Kempton on the all-weather and SLEEPING LION looks to have a good chance off a mark of 99.

    This eight-year-old beat Roberto Escobar, Nayef Road, and Earlofthecotswolds last year in an All-Weather Championship Qualifier over course and distance when wrong at the weights with Nayef Road by nine pounds and Roberto Escobar by five pounds.

    Harry & Roger Charlton’s gelding had a good reappearance at Kempton last month to blow the cobwebs off when he wasn’t fancied so back into handicap company off 99, I think he has the chance of running a big race.

  • Notes from Cheltenham: Early Grand National impressions

    Notes from Cheltenham: Early Grand National impressions

    The Cheltenham Festival 2023. Oh what a grand week its was.

    In a glorious 45-minute period on Day 1, Constitution Hill confirmed his utter dominance before Honeysuckle then completed an emotional swansong.

    Galopin Des Champs was then the cherry on a rather tasty cake in the main event, finally proving his class with Gold Cup glory.

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    So, as the turf settles on another epic trip to Gloucestershire, eyes now glance – on the National Hunt calendar at least – north to Merseyside.

    With the Randox Grand National less than a month off, as it stands, 73 names are currently pencilled for a dateĀ  on April 15 in Liverpool.

    But who will make the grade for the final 40?

    For many of Cheltenham’s protagonists, last week would have been crucial prep for the trip to Aintree so what can we take from this year’s Festival?

     

    Corach Rambler catapults into box seat

    On a week of champions returning to defend their respective crowns, it was almost an instant replay for Corach Rambler.

    Staging another late surge to pip Fastorslow in the Ultima, Lucinda Russell’s 9yo retained by a neck.

    Having seen his odds slashed for the Grand National, Corach Rambler is now the 7/1 favourite with BoyleSports.

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    Though the son of former Jersey Stakes winner, Jeremy, has only one prior trip to Aintree, with it came victory in the 2021 Jewson Handicap.

    His staying ability proven, the chief concern over 4m2f though, is that the National distance is over a mile further than any of his trips to date

    That, and his now likely handicap.

     

    Noble Yeats a stayer

    Staying the trip is something Noble Yeats has not only passed but done so with flying colours.

    Last year’s sensational National winner may have been unable to achieve a rare Gold Cup double, but Emmet Mullins remains a force next month.

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    An 8/1 SP at the off before last Friday’s contest, the now 8yo finished well to take fourth.

    Showing the same pure racing pedigree that saw him overcome Any Second Now last spring, Noble Yeats is very much in the shake-up to defend.

    Only the mighty Tiger Roll has won back-to-back Nationals since the 1970s, but 10/1 with William Hill looks early value.

     

    National may Work for Delta

    Looking at the last of the three frontrunners for next month, Delta Work boosted his Aintree hopes in again winning the Glenfarclas.

    The 10yo of Gordon Elliott could now be at the perfect age for a race of this magnitude, having come third last time out.

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    Now amongst the best around for staying, five of Delta Work’s age have entered the winner’s circle at Aintree.

    Make no mistake, the French gelding could follow in the steps of Neptune Collonges and more recently, Pineau De Re at 12/1 with 888sport.

     

    Could Envoi Allen capture greatness?

    What of Envoi Allen? Could the Cheveley Park 9yo now carry a stunning win from the Ryanair into a debut Grand National outing?

    Finishing ahead of Shishkin, Rachael Blackmore picked up the second of her two big wins of the week.

    So could we now see a reunion in a race she made history with on Minella Times two years ago?

     

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    Favouring the 2m4f trip, plans could yet be thwarted into 4m territory but Henry De Bromhead may yet be persuaded to ride the wave of emotion.

    A current 33/1 shot with PariMatch, Envoi Allen is yet capable of another thrilling marquee ride.

     

    Hewick may turn heads

    Finally, of the relative unknowns who impressed at Cheltenham, Hewick was a real eyebrow-raiser.

    Bolting up in the Gold Cup with Jordan Gainford, the Irish gelding went an impressive trip.

    Indeed, positioned second with two to jump, had it not been for a heavy fall at the penultimate hurdle, Hewick was on course to place at the very least.

    Having come through a nasty landing unscathed, it could well worth be keeping and eye on his training over the coming weeks.

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    Perhaps a little too green for the ultimate test of endurance, that factor could yet prompt TJ McDonald to reconsider such a tough entry.

    With that said however, Hewick is already a National winner; taking the US equivalent at Far Hills last October.

    That was a far shorter trip over 2m5f but nevertheless, it would be no surprise if given another lower weight, Hewick were to figure at a big price.