PSG welcome the English Giants Villa to Paris on Wednesday Night.
BET BUILDER FOR THE GAME:
For reasons I’m about to detail, I’m going to back PSG, but there’s no value on the moneyline, so instead I’m taking PSG -1 on the handicap spread.
Before we break down PSG, we need to understand this Aston Villa team. First up, their group stage performance. Finishing eighth was a real achievement but Bayern Munich were the only true S-tier team that they faced with Juventus, currently fifth in Serie A, the next best. They were fortunate to play the likes of Young Boys, Bologna, Celtic, and Club Brugge, who they then met again in the Round of 16. That’s a real dip in quality compared with who PSG faced in the group stages, Arsenal, Atletico Madrid, Bayern Munich and Man City, before beating Liverpool in the Round of 16.
Unai Emery has a fantastic record in European competition and knows how to progress in these tournaments but this Villa side doesn’t look as set up for Europe as his Sevilla team did. Villa are conceding nearly 1.5 goals per game in the Premier League, and while they’ve had four clean sheets in their past five, they’re still not elite at the back.
A look at Villa’s current seven-game winning streak shows two games against Championship clubs in the FA Cup, two against Club Brugge in this competition and just one win against a top-eight Premier League team.
Meanwhile, PSG have swept all before them domestically and are unbeaten in Ligue 1 as they march their way to the title. In 28 Ligue 1 games, they’ve conceded just 26 and scored a staggering 80 goals. Their attack is terrifying and with the pace and guile of Khvicha Kvaratskhelia, Bradley Barcola, and Ousmane Dembele, they’re going to be able to get at Villa.
That front three is as good as any in world soccer right now and we saw them tear Liverpool apart home and away in the last round. The ability they have to hit teams on the counter is undeniable given the breakaway speed that they possess, but they are also all intelligent players, who have displayed great awareness of space and have the talent to find their teammates.
The much-praised attack is also built on a good backline with two excellent fullbacks, and a truly exceptional midfield. Joao Neves, Vitinha, and Fabian Ruiz have been impossible to play against at times this season and Liverpool simply weren’t able to contain them in the last round. They are top-class at keeping possession of the ball, as well as knowing exactly when to get it forward to their attackers.
We have two excellent Spanish coaches in Luis Enrique and Emery, but it’s going to be PSG who come out on top, by multiple goals. They have an elite front three and a midfield that can dictate play and keep Villa from finding their rhythm. On home soil in front of a loud and passionate fanbase, they’ll dice the visitors apart and win by a margin of at least two, and it wouldn’t be a shock if they ended up winning by three or four.
