Midweek Premier League football is back with Brentford hosting Man City at the Gtech Stadium. The two sides come off the back of contrasting FA Cup results. Man City hammered a sorry Salford side 8-0 whereas Brentford suffered a shock home defeat to Plymouth who are bottom of the Championship. After the Bees’ strong start to the season on home soil, they have now lost their last three in all competitions at the Gtech. We all know Man City have had a disastrous couple months by their usual high standards and this will be another tough test for them. This game screams goals to me so I’ve put together a Bet Builder for my main tip: (Over 0.5 First Half Goals & Both Teams to Score & Over 2.5 Match Goals) at 1.75 odds.
Buzzing Brentford
Brentford are currently 11th place in the Premier League table with 27 points and when playing at home, are extremely strong. Their home form eclipses their away form. Brentford have seven wins at home compared to just one win on the road, they score an average of 2.70 goals at home whereas just 1.10 away. Despite strong stats, they haven’t kept a clean sheet at home all season, letting in 1.90 goals on average per game, still managing to win seven at home shows how freely they can score. With attackers such as Bryan Mbuemo and Yohan Wissa, who have 23 goals between them, Man City’s defence will need to be on top form.
The Start of The End For City?
Man City have had the season from hell as they look highly unlikely to win their 7th Premier League in a row as they sit in 6th place in the league. Liverpool who occupy first position are 12 points ahead of them and look hard to beat. After winning seven of their first nine Premier League matches, Man City looked set for another title fight, however after Rodri got injured things started to go wrong for Pep Guardiola’s side. For the first time in his managerial career, Pep lost five games in a row. They then embarrassingly let a 3-0 lead slip at home to Feyenoord drawing 3-3, in December their poor form continued losing to Liverpool, Juventus, Aston Villa and rivals Man Utd.
They have since won their last three games in all competitions but these may just be paper over the cracks, will Brentford expose their leaky defence? Recent news out of the City camp is that Kyle Walker has told Guardiola that he wants to leave the club in January so he is unlikely to feature.
Goals Galore: The Stats
I’m backing a first half goal as Brentford have conceded in the first half in their last seven home games and Man City have had one in all 20 of their Premier League games this season. Man City also lead the league in expected goals with 1.91 xGF whilst Brentford have 1.31 however as discussed earlier this increases at home. BTTS has landed in 75% of all Brentford’s games and in 70% of Man City’s. The same percentages apply for games that see over 2.5 match goals respectively. If the stats suggest anything, it’s goals and lots of them!
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