Paul v Woodley: The Unexpected Rematch

The real reason why Tommy Fury pulled out this weekend’s fight against Jake Paul is still up for debate but it’s believed he may not have been as fit as he made out to be. Instead, an official rematch with the 39 year old Tyron Woodley has been confirmed and the YouTuber Paul is favoured once again.

Betting enthusiast Jake Paul as also offered $500,000 to Woodley if the latter can knock him out.

Looking at the Paul vs Woodley odds, Paul’s odds of 4/11 represent an implied win probability of 73.33 percent while Woodley’s odds of 4/2 have an implied win probability of 33.33 percent.

Jake Paul vs Tyron Woodley: odds analysis

In this rematch, it appears the bookmakers had it right in the first place and are doubling down this time around. In the first bout, Jake Paul closed as the 4/7 mark whereas bookmakers are playing it slightly safer this time around as they’ve installed Paul at 4/11. Meanwhile, the former UFC champion, Woodley, was the 5/4 underdog back in August and is now 2/1 in the second fight.

The first Paul-vs-Woodley fight went the full eight rounds in August, with the judges scoring is 78-74, 77-75, 75-77 in favour of Paul, but there were moments when Woodley came close to rocking the YouTube sensation, so he definitely is capable of ending the fight early.

Taking the fight on late notice, there could be added value for Woodley, who claims he’s been training the whole time as Paul was likely game-planning for Fury and it’ll be interesting to see how quickly he can change that up. Additionally, their first fight was a split decision and there wasn’t much separating the two fighters.

In the first bout, there were a lot of questions about whether Woodley would let his hands go as they had gone a little silent in the latter stages of his UFC career. Unfortunately for the former champ, it took a few rounds for him to get the timing and start throwing.

That said, his power was undeniable in the shots that he did land cleanly, notably in the fourth round when “The Chosen One” wobbled Jake heavily. Ultimately, though, Tyron was taking inventory for much of the fight, loading up on one strike at a time, leading to a split-decision loss.

In the first fight, “The Problem Child” had moments of success as he landed some clean straights and uppercuts, but he never really hurt Woodley; instead, Paul did his best work when he was doubling and tripling up on his strikes, which seemed to anger Tyron and get him to charge forward. Jake’s counter hooks when Tyron would move forward were also very impressive. So many times, Woodley would load up on a strike as he lunged and Paul would simply time that with a stiff jab or hook and then circle away, avoiding any damage.


It’s a tough one but as while Jake had moments in the first fight, it seems he may not have the power to knock out the former UFC champion. However, Tyron have the ability, and power, to take out Jake if he were to win; and that method would offer some good value odds. But Jake will still have the speed advantage, these rounds are quickly starting to add up, which is building his in-ring experience, and he should be able to outpoint Tyron again.

Therefore, the 4/11 for Paul to win via decision is where the money is going just now.

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