The Newmarket July Festival has been one for the boys in blue, Charlie Appleby, and that man William Buick, and they have Notable Speech lining up in the Group 1 July Cup on Saturday afternoon.
Can the supplemented Classic winner justify the move to run him, or will one of the more established sprinters take home the trophy?
It’s set to be a fascinating day at Newmarket on Saturday, and below are my three selections for the action.
Newmarket July Festival Day 3 Selections
2:12 Newmarket – Miss Nightfall @ 9/4 with Betfred – 1pt Win
Embed from Getty ImagesMiss Nightfall was a big eye-catcher at Royal Ascot, both in her performance and her starting price.
She was upwards of 20/1 the day before the Sandringham, but she went off a well-backed 16/5, and she ran on through the line up the near side of the field.
Her trademark race tactic is to sit off the pace and make late headway. She attempted to do this in the Sandringham, but she had traffic problems just before the two-furlong pole.
When the gap opened up, she kicked into top gear, but the leaders had already sprinted away at that stage, and the shape of the race seemed to favour those on the far side/up the middle.
Cajole, the runner-up, has placed in a Listed race since, so the form does look okay already.
Her other bits of form with She’s Perfect, Star Of Mehmas, Hallasan, and, more notably, Camille Pissarro look excellent for a horse rated just 90. She has a nice racing weight, and this drop back in trip shouldn’t be an issue.
2:50 Newmarket – Ebt’s Guard @ 20/1 with Betfred (4 places) – 1pt EW
Embed from Getty ImagesWhile More Thunder will be a popular horse at Newmarket tomorrow, and he deserves to be based on his Wokingham performance, Ebt’s Guard looks like a big price.
Firstly, he’s a really game horse who goes well on quick ground. Just look at his effort behind My Cloud at Newbury in May; he powered on through the line, and the fourth, Classic, was well-beaten.
The form of that Newbury contest earlier this season has worked out really well, as My Cloud went on to win the Royal Hunt Cup, Boyfriend has won once and finished second in a handicap at the July Festival, Classic won the Coral Challenge last weekend, and Dutch Decoy won at Newmarket on Thursday.
Furthermore, the Cable Bay four-year-old beat Urban Lion at Newbury in April on his seasonal reappearance, and Urban Lion has since improved 10lbs. Two Tempting, a subsequent Chester winner, was also in fourth, and Arisaig, the Coral Challenge runner-up, was in fifth.
His performance in the Royal Hunt Cup can be upgraded, as he didn’t get much cover, and yet he still stayed on down the far side of the track.
At a huge price, Ebt’s Guard is worth following.
4:35 Newmarket – Believing @ 9/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW
Embed from Getty ImagesFor a long time, I have wanted to see Believing at six furlongs in a Group 1 contest, and I’m finally getting my wish… on her final ever start.
I will admit, the circumstances aren’t as glorious as I had once imagined, as she does have to bounce back from a poor effort in the Group 1 King Charles III Stakes at Royal Ascot.
However, excuses can be made, notably that she was drawn in box one, and it always looked like she was going flat out.
This return to six furlongs, a distance she has won at five times before, should help her get into a more fluent rhythm, and box 11 should be no issue.
If putting a line through he last run, it’s worth remembering the level of form she has.
All of last season, she was chasing home Bradsell, the 2024 champion sprinter, Big Evs, and Asfoora. She danced in most of the Group 1 dances, and she did that over five furlongs when she looked like a six-furlong animal.
George Boughey was quite bullish coming into Ascot, which is notable, but even he has now admitted that she wants a stiff six furlongs. With this now going for her, and the fact that she is running after 25 days rather than her 73-day break before Ascot, this could be a glorious swansong.
