Classic action is back on our screens this weekend, and it starts on Saturday with Irish 2000 Guineas Day from the Curragh.
As we roll towards the end of May, it’s worth sharing how the P/L is for the last few months.
If you luckily decided to take a few months’ break from racing during March and April, I think you may be the richest horse racing fan in all the land as a fair few punters have had a tough time, myself included.
Cheltenham, Aintree, and Punchestown were poor, and that reflects in both P/L scores for these months. We left March with -25.75pts, and April was -33.97. Lovely stuff.
However, May has been kinder as we are up 17.015pts from 52.5pts staked (32.4% ROI). Long live the Flat.
Let’s hope this month’s momentum can continue with my Irish 2000 Guineas Day selections.
Irish 2000 Guineas Day
2:25 Haydock – Running Lion @ 15/8 with Betfred – 2pt Win
On the Only Fools Love Horses video earlier in the week, I highlighted Running Lion as my bet of the weekend, and I still believe this.
The five-year-old by Roaring Lion was an expensive horse to follow last year based on her efforts at Epsom and Newmarket. However, when she was right, she was very good.
She bolted up in the Group 2 Duke Of Cambridge Stakes at Royal Ascot before chasing home Friendly Soul in the Group 1 Prix de l’Opera at the end of the season.
That Prix de l’Opera is a race I’ll be following going forward. Friendly Soul is a proper Group 1 animal, Sparkling Plenty (third) is a Group 1 winner who has great form with Opera Singer and Bluestocking, and Fallen Angel (fourth) won last season’s Irish 1000 Guineas.
John & Thady Gosden blew the cobwebs off Running Lion at Newmarket earlier in the month, and with the benefit of race fitness, she should really appreciate this drop down in class for the Listed Hedge Of Oak Stakes.
I think she’ll win if she is her usual self, as she is prone to daggering her heels in.
3:05 Curragh – Iberian @ 7/1 with William Hill – 1pt Win
Iberian was a bit unlucky in the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes in March, and it would be remiss of me not to back him in this Group 2 Greenlands Stakes.
He made good progress through the race last time out, but his violent swerve to the left ultimately cost him the race. He pulled well clear of the third, Marshman, and ran into Spycatcher, a horse who loves going well fresh. He should have won.
I’m not overly worried by many of his rivals on Saturday, though I do appreciate that Storm Boy, an Australian Group 3 winner, could well be anything. On his first start of the season, and his first start for Aidan O’Brien, I’m happy to take him on.
The case to back him this weekend is similar to the reasons behind backing him at Doncaster in March. His form ahead of Sunway and Rosallion as a juvenile looks good, and he even ran a good race in City Of Troy’s Dewhurst before not truly seeing out the seven-furlong test.
Furthermore, although the Cammidge Trophy was his long-term target (so he was prepped for it), he might benefit from that outing fitness-wise as it was his first run for 105 days.
He can land a race like this.
3:40 Curragh – Rashabar @ 14/1 with Betfred (3 places) – 1pt EW
The Irish 2000 Guineas is a proper race this year, and a number of horses could feasibly win in my eyes, however, Rashabar looks a bit too big to me.
Brian Meehan explicitly stated that he was always going to come on for his run in the Group 3 Greenham Stakes at Newbury last month, and yet, he still finished a very good second to Jonquil.
The Juddmonte-owned winner went on to finish a good second to Henri Matisse in the French 2000 Guineas, and even the fourth, Diablo Rojo, chased home Big Mojo in the Group 3 Commonwealth Cup Trial Stakes, so that form has been franked.
As for his juvenile season, there is a lot to like. His second to Whistlejacket in the Group 1 Prix Morny was a big rub, as was his second to Camille Pissarro in the Group 1 Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere, where he finished ahead of Field Of Gold and Henri Matisse.
It’s also easy to forget that he won the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at 80/1 from the wrong side of the track. He was positioned on the far side, while the horses positioned second to tenth were on the near side.
Based on this case, 16/1 is a tasty price.
