Grand National 2024: Historical numbers and insights

The Grand National offers a unique blend of unpredictability and recurring patterns that reward careful analysis rather than superstition. This expanded look complements our original page by digging into draw trends, weight effects and what past results can practically mean for race-day choices.

How numbers, draws and weights influence National outcomes

Across decades of Aintree renewals the interplay of draw position, saddle weight and course demands has produced observable tendencies that bettors and analysts monitor closely. Understanding these tendencies helps frame expectations for both win and each-way strategies without implying certainty or financial promise.

Which entry numbers have brought consistent success

Numbers 10, 13, 29 and 35 stand out in recent history as multiple winners, which suggests pockets of the card have delivered stronger results than others across a 22-year sample. Statistical prominence does not equal inevitability, but recognising where winners have clustered can focus further form study and course-specific checks.

Several winners in the past decade carried mid-to-high card numbers, reflecting how stamina, jumping and race luck often outweigh starting stall glamour. Punters should treat this as a directional input rather than a decisive factor when weighing up a betting selection.

Numbers to consider for each-way and place markets

Each-way value often depends on historical place frequency as much as outright victory rate, so numbers that repeatedly finish in the top four or five can be attractive for place-only stakes. Numbers such as 27 have registered multiple runner-up finishes, showing consistent competitiveness even when not delivering wins.

Conversely, numbers with limited or no top-six finishes over a long period warrant caution for each-way backers, especially where form or conditions do not suggest a clear turnaround. Using place history alongside recent form, course experience and ground preference produces a more rounded each-way approach.

Draw and weight patterns: low numbers versus favourites

Low draws and top weights have historically struggled at Aintree’s Grand National, where large fields and heavy obstacles test endurance and jumping reliability as much as class. The first nine draw positions have shown higher non-completion rates in modern renewals, suggesting that an early stall can be a disadvantage rather than an asset.

Top-weighted runners often face an uphill task in this long handicap, and recent winners tend to be those carrying fair weights without excessive burden. Evaluating weight in the context of a horse’s staying profile and recent course form is essential when assessing each contender’s realistic chance.

What the data says about mid-card and high-number runners

Mid-card numbers, notably those between 11 and 29, have produced a meaningful share of winners in the 22-year period under review, reflecting how race dynamics can favour runners drawn away from the very inside. Horses in these positions may avoid early traffic and benefit from a clearer run into the crucial closing circuits.

High-number runners have produced winners as well, but the key consideration is whether the horse’s characteristics match the demands of a long chase over big fences. Past success from these draws often correlates with proven stamina, sound jumping and a competent rider able to manage the unique Aintree tempo.

Why numbers 10, 13, 29 and 35 stand out historically

These specific digits recur among winners and therefore attract attention because repeated success suggests a non-random element in the data sample. However, that repetition must be interpreted with caution and combined with up-to-date form and fitness indicators rather than being used in isolation.

Patterns like these can inform betting research by narrowing the focus for deeper checks, such as recent jumping ability, conditions preference and trainer targeting. Responsible bettors use such signals to prioritise analysis rather than to chase a single numerical trend.

Risks linked to low draws and heavy top weights at Aintree

Early draws can leave horses boxed in or exposed to first-fence incidents, contributing to the high non-finish rates observed for several low numbers. Similarly, the cumulative fatigue of carrying top weight over four miles-plus often leaves heavily burdened animals vulnerable in the final stages.

When evaluating contenders, consider whether a low-drawn or top-weighted horse has shown ability to cope with chaotic large-field conditions in recent starts. If not, the statistical tendency against such profiles at Aintree suggests caution when including them in short-priced selections.

Interpreting place trends for each-way selections

Place trends highlight horses that may lack the outright speed to win but possess the consistency and staying power to finish in the frame, which can make them useful each-way candidates. Numbers with recurrent place finishes but few wins often reflect reliable jumpers who thrive in attritional renewals.

Combine these place tendencies with trainer and jockey form, course experience and ground suitability to identify realistic each-way targets. An evidence-based approach reduces reliance on superstition and supports more measured staking decisions.

Course conditions, ground and run styles that affect outcomes

Aintree’s unique fences and the race’s length mean that soft or testing ground raises the premium on stamina and jumping durability, while faster ground can favour horses with better cruising speed. Assessing recent turf performances alongside official going descriptions helps set realistic expectations for each runner’s aptitude.

Run style matters too; horses that conserve energy early and jump efficiently often gain in the closing stages, whereas front-running types may be vulnerable if they expend too much early energy. Match a horse’s natural tempo to likely race scenarios when thinking about both win and each-way possibilities.

How to combine historical patterns with current form

Historical patterns are most useful when blended with up-to-the-minute form indicators such as recent runs, fitness reports, wind surgery notes and trainer comments. This combined view prevents over-reliance on past digits and highlights contenders whose current profile aligns with long-term trends.

Practical evaluation includes checking weight carried, recent jumping records, fence-awareness in big fields and the course record of horse, jockey and trainer partnerships. Responsible analysis balances numbers and narrative to arrive at informed, non-impulsive decisions.

Staking and risk management for National betting

Given the high variance of the Grand National, sensible staking and strict bankroll control are essential to avoid undue financial exposure. Treat any bet as entertainment rather than an investment, limit stakes to a small portion of a pre-set betting budget and avoid chasing losses.

Exploring bookmaker comparisons can identify varying place terms and odds, which is useful for competent staking, but never bet more than you can afford to lose. If you have concerns about gambling, seek help through UK support services and consider using responsible-gambling tools provided by operators.

Practical checklist for race-day selection

On the day, verify the going, confirm declarations and inspect any late non-runners that change draw dynamics, and weigh these factors alongside the historical patterns discussed earlier. Keep plans flexible and avoid large single bets based solely on number trends or anecdotal reasons.

Where you choose to place a wager, do so with an eye to value, realistic expectations and clear limits, and remember that statistical signals help frame choices rather than guarantee outcomes. All betting is for those aged 18 and over and should be approached responsibly.

18+ only. Gamble responsibly and only bet what you can afford to lose; betting should never be viewed as a way to make money or solve financial problems.

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Is the Grand National more about luck than form?

The race combines both elements: luck plays a larger role than in shorter, simpler contests, but form, stamina and jumping ability remain central to realistic chances. Treat luck as one factor among many and use form to prioritise selections rather than to assume a secure outcome.

Should I base bets purely on historical number trends?

No; historical number trends should guide where to focus further research, not decide bets outright. Combine those trends with present form, fitness and race conditions to make balanced selections.

Do low draws always underperform at Aintree?

Low draws have a higher incidence of non-completion in recent samples, but exceptions exist and specific circumstances can alter that expectation. Assess each horse’s ability to handle first-fence congestion and the likely race tempo before dismissing a low-drawn runner.

Are top-weighted horses hopeless at the National?

Top-weighted horses face a stern test, but success is not impossible if the horse combines exceptional stamina and recent form. Weight is one of several critical variables and should be judged alongside course suitability and jumping reliability.

How should I approach each-way betting at the National?

Look for numbers and horses with consistent place records, favourable ground preferences and proven staying power, and compare place terms among bookmakers for the best value. Keep stakes modest and manage expectations given the race’s unpredictability.

Where can I get help if gambling becomes a problem?

If gambling causes concern, contact UK support services such as GamCare or use bookmaker self-exclusion and stake-limit tools immediately. Betting should always be undertaken responsibly by those aged 18 and over.