ITV cameras turn to Windsor on Friday as day one of the Berkshire Winter Million Meeting kicks off.
This meeting is shaping up to be a big one. Yes, declarations for Windsor on Friday are slightly disappointing, but some top-class horses are running at the Winter Million Meeting, and we also have the Grade 1 Clarence House Chase at Ascot on Saturday to look forward to.
January has been a slow starter for the column so far, but we haven’t staked too much at the same time, so it’s a case of damage limitation currently.
I feel like this weekend could have a big say on how the P/L sits at the turn of the month.
Anyway, let’s find some bets.
Winter Million Meeting Day 1 Tips
1:15 Windsor – Deafening Silence @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win
I’m slightly priced in to backing Deafening Silence in the second race at Windsor on Saturday as I’ve waited patiently for his handicap debut over fences.
3/1 is on the tight side, but there were plenty of positives to take from his run at Haydock on chase debut behind Trelawne and Iroko.
Harry Skelton positioned him off the pace under a restrained ride and he jumped well for much of the contest.
He stayed on to finish a comfortable third which was pleasing as it was his first run of the season and the front two were given plenty of rope to win the race.
His last run behind Jango Baie at Cheltenham was poor, but it was decent ground and he does prefer softer conditions.
Stepping up to three miles for the first time under rules is appreciated as he won his only point-to-point in December 2021 when beating Sine Nomine by seven lengths.
I’m fairly sure this horse is better than his mark of 133, and while Myretown and Johnnywho are respectable opponents, I hope things fall into place tomorrow.
1:50 Windsor – Caldwell Potter @ 6/5 with BetVictor – 2pt Win
Apologies for this shortie, but I think Caldwell Potter will win the Grade 2 Lightning Novices’ Chase, and I don’t think he’s badly priced.
Yes, he was disappointing at Cheltenham in December, but I thought the reaction was a bit over the top.
Asking if his new owners had kept their receipt for the €740,000 purchase was harsh because he did plenty of things well alongside his not-so-great moments.
His jumping was slick and accurate and he travelled powerfully from the front for a long way. Yes, he was swept aside after the last, but it’s easy to forget that his seasonal reappearance was 12 days prior and Springwell Bay has gone some way to frank the form already.
Jango Baie is a horse I love as well, so getting beaten by him is no major problem.
Returning to two miles will work, as will the expected soft ground, and I think he will win. If he loses and there is no major issue during the race, I will be disappointed.
3:00 Windsor – Nemean Lion @ 6/1 with BetVictor – 1pt Win
Nemean Lion is I’ve not really backed before, and I’ve always found a way to take him on, but he appeals the most in the 2m4f £100,000 conditions hurdle.
Firstly, conditions are set to suit. He likes softer ground and this trip should work for him.
Yes, he’s a serial winner over the minimum trip, but he easily brushed aside 2m3f at Hereford last time out in a race he could have won by 15 lengths.
Connections have seemingly wanted to run him over further for a little while now as he ran in the Grade 1 Aintree Hurdle last season, but that was probably a step too far, and he did run over 1m7f on the Flat for his previous trainer Andre Fabre.
His form of beating the two colonels, Colonel Mustard and Colonel Harry, over hurdles stacks up nicely, and doing the donkey work in the 2024 Champion Hurdle deserves respect.
He’s a tempting price to chance win-only.
4:08 Windsor – Hugos New Horse @ 8/1 with Boylesports (4 places) – 1pt EW
I think now is the time to strike with Hugos New Horse who is nicely handicapped based on previous form.
Paul Nicholls gave him a run over hurdles at Newbury on November 29th to blow the cobwebs off, and he nearly won at Plumpton 18 days later on his first start over the larger obstacles.
He did well that day for a number of reasons. Diplomatic Ash (not named after me, I believe) was consistently jumping out to his right and into Hugos New Horse, eight fences of the 14 were omitted due to low sun which didn’t suit, and one can argue he will improve fitness-wise for the run again.
To go from massively needing the run on November 29th to absolutely 100% fully fit on December 16th doesn’t quite check out in my head, so with two runs and a nice 32-day break, he should have no excuses on Friday.
As for his form, he finished third to Crambo in the 2023 Novices’ Handicap Hurdle Final at Sandown with Etalon, now rated 16lbs higher over fences, one place behind.
He also beat Persian Time (132) and Passing Well (123) on his final start of that season up at Ayr in a 2m4f novices’ hurdle.
I’m convinced this eight-year-old is well-in off 124 and I’m hopeful that this 2m6f trip will suit him nicely.
