I have chosen to focus on the match between Pain and Mouz, as I see potential for Pain to challenge Mouz in this matchup. Mouz is, of course, the clear favorite, and that is fully justified, but in this specific situation, Pain could have a chance to cause some trouble. It is worth noting that Mouz has not played any matches for several weeks, while Pain has been active and kept themselves in good form.
Arguments for playing the tip:
- I believe Pain has a strong map pool, which gives them the opportunity to challenge Mouz, especially in a BO1 match like this one. It is precisely in such formats that matchups can become unpredictable.
- In their most recent meeting on Dust2, which was also a BO1, Pain managed to pressure Mouz, and the match ended with a close 13-11 victory for Mouz. This match took place at RIO.
- BO1 matches are often a good place to find underdogs, and although I am not sure Pain would win if it were a BO3, I see a realistic chance for them in this case.
- We have chosen to bet on a favorable handicap line, where Pain only needs to secure 9 rounds for this bet to win.
- Pain has kept themselves warm with regular matches, while Mouz has had a longer break of several weeks.
- Individually, Mouz is not yet at their peak level. Their performance still depends on Jimphat and Xertion reaching their optimal level. Pain has a solid team, and their players generally deliver a stable and competent level.
Keep an eye on:
- We have still not seen Pain perform against the very best teams. This is something that could provide a more nuanced view of their abilities at this level.
- Mouz is undoubtedly a tier 1 team, while Pain is not. The biggest difference between the two teams is that Mouz rarely makes the mistakes that Pain might make. Small tactical errors will be heavily punished at this level.
- Mouz had a smooth run through RMR and was quickly prepared for the Major, which speaks to their high level.
- If Mouz shows up on the server in top form with all players performing at their best, Pain will have a tough time keeping up. It is clear that Mouz is superior both tactically and individually when they are playing at their highest level.
