England versus Germany.
It is without doubt, one of the biggest rivalries going in football and on Tuesday evening, the latest chapter will play out in the last 16 of Euro 2020.
As Wembley plays host to the fixture for only the third time in a major tournament, memories of not only the 1966 World Cup final but the two sides’ memorable Euro ’96 semi-final meeting will be evoked.
In what will be the 33rd meeting between the two nations, the only question that matters however, is who will reach the last eight to face either Sweden or Ukraine on Saturday?
With England playing their fourth game of the tournament in north London, in the region of 20,000 fans will be roaring the hosts on this Tuesday, and on home turf, Gareth Southgate’s men are 13/8 with SBK and 8-5 with MansionBet to progress.
The Germans meanwhile, are surprisingly long odds at 2/1 with SBK again, meaning you can treble your money – perhaps to cushion the blow of any potential England loss.
In terms of a correct score, the last time England and Germany faced off in the Euros, the game went to extra time after a 1-1 draw, and you can get the same result over 90 mins at 5-1 with SkyBet.
Winding back the clock to their 2010 meeting at the World Cup in South Africa, England were on the receiving end of one of football’s great injustices.
With Germany 2-0 up in Bloemfontein, England grabbed a goal back via a Matthew Upson header, before Frank Lampard looked to have equalised from distance. The goal was infamously ruled out after the officiating team could not confirm the ball had crossed the line – by a clear distance – and was one of the big reasons why we now have video technology.
Could we see VAR intervene and overturn an incident on Tuesday? Again, SkyBet are offering 6/4 odds.
Finally, it would not be an England-Germany clash without mention of the dreaded ‘p’ word.
Though England banished their penalty hoodoo at the last World Cup, the thought of another spot-kick showdown with Germany fills the average Three Lions fan with a cold dread. But it is a possibility given the nature of England’s recent results.
If you can steel yourself to go through the ringer from 12 yards once more, you can back either team to win the shootout at 5/1 with Bet365.
Betting fundamentals and step-by-step how-to guides
Whether you’re sizing up a classic rivalry like England v Germany or a Saturday acca, sound fundamentals make every decision clearer. This guide expands on the match talk by showing you how to price markets, manage risk and use our bookmaker comparisons to your advantage.
At Best Of Bets, we combine independent reviews with practical, no-nonsense betting education. Use this page to sharpen your process, then follow our affiliate links and banners to compare prices and responsibly claim verified UK offers.
Build confident betting habits with clear basics
Betting is about evaluating probability and price, then deciding if the offered odds are fair for the risk you take. Treat it like a business decision, and your results will reflect that discipline over time.
You won’t win every bet, but you can win on value, bankroll control and shop selection. That starts with understanding odds, markets and the difference between opinion and edge.
Understanding odds formats and implied probability
Bookmakers present the same idea in different wrappers: fractional, decimal and American odds are just alternative languages for price. Learn each quickly so you can compare across sites and spot the best number in seconds.
Implied probability converts odds into a percentage, telling you what chance the price suggests an outcome has. If your estimated chance is higher than the implied probability, you’ve found potential value.
Convert fractional, decimal and American odds
Fractional shows profit relative to stake, decimal shows total return per unit, and American shows profit relative to 100 or the stake needed to win 100. If 13/8 becomes 2.625 in decimal, you instantly know a £10 stake returns £26.25 in total.
To compare sites, keep decimal in mind because it’s quickest to scan and calculate. Most UK books let you toggle formats in your account settings within seconds.
Calculate implied probability from any price
Implied probability from decimal odds is simple: percentage equals one divided by the decimal price. For example, 2.625 implies roughly a 38.1% chance before margins.
For fractional odds a/b, implied probability equals b divided by (a + b). Use this skill to check if your view of a fixture is more accurate than the market’s.
Overround, margin and why books differ in pricing
Each market includes a built-in margin called the overround, so the summed implied probabilities exceed 100%. Lower overround means a sharper, better-priced market for you.
Different books set different margins depending on competition, liability and trading approach. That’s why comparing odds via our banners can add immediate value without changing your opinion.
Market types explained: match, handicaps, goals
The 1X2 match result market is the most familiar, but it’s not always the best route to value. Handicaps, goal lines and props can express the same opinion at a better price.
Before you bet, decide whether you want to back a team, reduce variance, or focus on goals or chances created. Pick the market that best reflects your edge.
1X2, draw no bet and double chance explained
1X2 pays on home win, draw or away win, but it carries full variance. Draw No Bet returns stake on a draw, lowering price but reducing risk.
Double Chance covers two outcomes at shorter odds, useful when you like an underdog not to lose. Use it to back resilience rather than outright dominance.
Asian handicaps and goal lines demystified
Asian handicaps level the field by applying goal starts like +0.25 or -0.75, often splitting stakes across lines. These markets can reduce draw risk and align better with your true estimate of team strength.
Goal lines such as over/under 2.25 also split stakes, smoothing results when a match sits between two fair totals. They’re ideal when your model focuses on chance creation rather than winners.
Both teams to score and correct score notes
Both Teams To Score (BTTS) is driven by chance quality, tactical intent and game state dynamics. It offers value when the market underestimates either side’s ability to create high-quality chances.
Correct Score is attractive but volatile, so treat it as a small-stake market unless your data strongly supports a specific pattern. For many bettors, handicaps or totals are a better expression of the same insight.
How to assess value: price versus true chance
Value exists when your assessed probability is greater than the price-implied probability after margin. You don’t need to be perfect; you need to be less wrong than the market often enough.
A small edge consistently applied and shopped for the best price compounds over time. That’s the core of sustainable betting.
Build a fair-odds view with simple models
Start with team strength ratings, recent performance, injuries and schedule, then translate into a baseline percentage for each outcome. You can keep it simple with rolling form and shot quality, or go deeper with xG-based projections.
Make fair odds by inverting your percentages, then compare against live prices. You’re not trying to predict the future perfectly, just price the present better.
Shop lines to turn lean edges into value
Your 2–3% opinion edge becomes 4–5% by securing a better number. That difference can be decisive across a season.
Use our bookmaker reviews and banners to open accounts where prices and limits suit your markets. Always check several books before you click bet.
Beware biases and anchoring on headline stats
Recency bias, anchoring on a big win or loss, and overvaluing possession can warp your view. Stick to metrics that correlate with chances and finishing quality.
Build your pre-match notes before reading market narratives. That protects your number from outside noise.
Bankroll management and staking made simple
Decide your bankroll up front and assign a unit size you can comfortably stake without stress. A calm, repeatable staking plan outperforms guesswork and gut feel.
Stake in units so one result never dictates your mood or your month. Consistency is a risk-management superpower.
Fixed, proportional and Kelly-style staking
Fixed staking uses the same unit for every bet, which keeps variance transparent and emotions stable. Proportional staking adjusts the unit as bankroll changes, which can smooth drawdowns and grow stakes with your balance.
Kelly-style staking scales by perceived edge and price but can be volatile and unforgiving to estimation errors. Many bettors prefer half-Kelly or cap sizes to limit swings.
Set limits, unit size and loss stop rules
Define a maximum stake per bet and a daily or weekly exposure limit before you start. This prevents chasing and keeps you within defined risk boundaries.
Set a loss stop for the day or week and stick to it. Tomorrow is another market.
Protect your bankroll during losing streaks
Losing runs happen even with positive expected value because variance is real. Reduce stake size, tighten criteria and review your process rather than forcing action.
Never view betting as a way to recover financial problems or cover bills. Keep it affordable, enjoyable and strictly 18+ only.
Using data: form, xG, injuries and scheduling
Form without context misleads, so pair recent results with expected goals, shot quality and chance volume. Opponent strength and game state explain a lot of variance.
Check the schedule for travel, rest days and fixture congestion, which can be as impactful as an injury. Margins shift when minutes pile up.
From xG to shot maps: what matters most in football analysis
Expected goals reflects chance quality better than raw shots or possession, especially over medium samples. Shot maps and non-penalty xG provide clearer signals about sustainable performance.
Prioritise chance creation and prevention, set-piece threat and big-chance conversion. These factors matter more than headline possession or simple shot counts.
Injuries, travel, rest days and rotation risk
A team missing its ball-progressor or holding midfielder can suffer more than one missing striker. Model role importance, not just headline names.
Rotation increases variance, particularly after European away trips or in short turnarounds. Adjust goal expectations and possession splits accordingly.
Weather, pitch and referees can tilt outcomes
Heavy rain, high winds or poor surfaces depress passing tempo and shot quality, often favouring unders. Fast pitches and dry conditions can lift transitions and chance volume.
Referee profiles matter for cards and penalties, which influence totals and handicaps. Confirm assignments close to kickoff when information is firm.
Live betting essentials and in-play discipline
In-play betting rewards speed and clarity but punishes impulse. Enter only when the live price exceeds your refreshed fair number.
Prepare scenarios pre-match so you know what to do when the game shifts. Discipline beats hot takes.
When to bet in-play and when to pass for better outcomes
Good in-play entries appear when the market overreacts to a red card, injury or momentum that your model says is overstated. Bad entries happen when you chase because a rival scored or you “feel” it.
If you wouldn’t take the same bet pre-match at an equivalent price, pass in-play. Consistency reduces costly errors.
Manage liquidity, delays and cash out noise
Accept that in-play delays protect books from latency, so your bet might not be accepted during a dangerous attack. Price your edge conservatively to cover delay risk.
Crowded televised games have better liquidity and tighter odds than lower leagues. Stick to markets where your edge exceeds the slippage.
Halftime adjustments and late-game scenarios
Halftime is ideal for calm reassessment with new data on pace, shots and tactical tweaks. Update your totals or handicaps against your pre-match baseline.
Late-game time decay pushes totals and prices quickly, so be prepared with trigger points in advance. Avoid last-second punts driven by emotion.
How to compare welcome offers and bonuses
Not all offers are equal; some enhance expected value while others add friction. Focus on transparent deals that match your markets and staking style.
Use our reviews and banners to compare terms side by side from licensed UK bookmakers we recommend. Always read the small print before you opt in.
Free bets, profit boosts and bet credits
Free bets usually return winnings only, not the free stake, so adjust expected returns accordingly. Profit boosts can add real edge when applied to prices you would take anyway.
Bet credits sit like cash for staking but may have restrictions at settlement. Price first, offer second, every time.
Wagering, min odds and expiry small print
Wagering requirements and minimum odds can turn a good headline into poor value. Align offers with bets you already plan to place to avoid forcing action.
Expiry dates matter, especially during international breaks or quieter weeks. If you can’t use it in time, it isn’t value.
Opt-in, qualifying bets and payment methods
Some promotions require explicit opt-in before placement and specific bet types to qualify. Miss one step and you may lose the benefit.
Payment method exclusions can apply to e-wallets or prepaid cards. Check eligible methods to keep your plan on track.
ACCAs, bet builders and when to use them
Accumulators multiply price and variance, so keep stakes modest and selective. Use them when you have multiple small edges and the best available prices.
Bet builders are great for telling a single-match story but can hide margin if the legs are correlated. Compare the builder price to manual combinations where possible.
Correlated legs and same-game pitfalls to avoid
When legs influence each other, the fair combined price is lower than multiplying independent probabilities. Books account for correlation, but builders can still carry heavy margin.
If your story is “England to press and both teams to score,” check if a handicap plus BTTS or total goals expresses it more efficiently. Don’t pay extra margin for convenience.
Boosts, insurance and realistic expectations
Acca boosts and insurance can tip marginal multis into acceptable value when the base prices are already strong. Never accept weak legs just to qualify for a bonus.
Set realistic goals and keep ACCAs a small part of your staking plan. Singles and two-leg multiples remain the backbone of disciplined betting.
Pricing gaps across sportsbooks on combo bets
Different books treat correlations and builders differently, creating exploitable price gaps. Shop around on the same combination and you’ll often find material differences.
Our bookmaker comparisons highlight which operators typically price certain markets most competitively. Click our banners to check live numbers before you commit.
Cash out, partial cash out and alternatives
Cash out is convenient but often priced with a fee that reduces expected value. Use it sparingly and only when it aligns with your risk plan.
Partial cash out lets you de-risk while keeping some position, which can suit tournament volatility. Consider hedging manually as a more transparent alternative.
Hedge manually versus taking cash out when it pays
Manual hedging on an exchange or opposing book can produce a better net position than the built-in cash-out offer. Compare both in real time and choose the higher expected value.
Factor in liquidity, commission and delays before acting. If you can’t execute cleanly, convenience might justify a small cost.
Expected value impact of early settlement
Cash out turns a live bet into a new transaction at the offered price, which may underpay for your true equity. Your edge can vanish if you settle too often.
Reserve early settlement for specific scenarios like injuries, severe weather changes or tournament motives. Put criteria in writing to avoid impulse exits.
Time decay and market moves in settlements
As time ticks down, the fair price shifts rapidly, especially around one-goal leads. Books protect themselves with conservative offers.
If you expect the market to move further in your favour, waiting can add value but raises risk. Decide before kickoff how you’ll act in common states.
Creating a pre-match checklist and routine
A short, repeatable process beats ad hoc analysis when fixtures stack up. Create a one-page checklist and use it for every match.
Consistency builds better numbers and reduces wasted time. Your goal is clarity, not complexity.
A simple six-step process for consistency
Step one, update ratings and injuries; two, set base totals and handicaps; three, adjust for schedule, weather and motivation. Four, price your markets; five, shop lines; six, record your reasons.
Keep the whole process under 20 minutes per match once you’re practiced. That’s enough for 90% of your decisions.
Set reminders and review before kick-off
Lineups drop roughly an hour before kick-off and can change prices quickly. Set alerts so you can validate your bet or adjust your plan.
If the team news confirms your assumptions, consider increasing confidence slightly within your staking rules. If it conflicts, either reprice or pass.
Template notes for international tournament ties
Tournament football can differ from league play on tempo, caution and substitution patterns. Use a template that emphasises rest days, travel and penalty propensity.
Big rivalries can compress prices due to public interest, making discipline and shopping even more important. Let the numbers, not the narrative, guide you.
Recording results and learning from variance
Keep a simple ledger of date, market, price, stake, book, pre-match fair odds and result. That record is your edge-lab.
You can’t improve what you don’t measure, and memory lies under pressure. Data doesn’t.
Track ROI, CLV and closing line movement
Closing line value (CLV) measures whether you beat the final market price, a strong proxy for long-term edge. Aim to beat the close consistently, even during short-term downswings.
ROI matters, but it’s noisier than CLV in small samples. Track both to understand performance and process health.
Use a weekly review to refine your edge and focus
Once a week, review wins and losses against your pre-match reasoning to spot recurring strengths. Drop markets where you can’t beat the close and double down on those you can.
Refine your checklist and staking rules based on evidence, not emotion. Progress compounds when you focus.
Separating process quality from short-term luck
A bad week doesn’t mean a bad method, and a hot streak doesn’t prove genius. Judge bets by whether your price beat the market and followed your plan.
Variance is a feature, not a bug, so keep stakes steady and reviews regular. The edge shows over time.
Safer gambling tools, limits and support
Gambling is for adults aged 18+ only, and it should remain affordable, fun and under your control. Use the tools UK-licensed bookmakers provide to set firm boundaries.
If betting stops being enjoyable, step away and seek help. Your wellbeing comes first, always.
Set time, deposit and loss limits in minutes
Most UK books let you set daily, weekly and monthly limits quickly in your account. Time-outs and reality checks help you keep sessions short and mindful.
Self-exclusion tools are there if you need a longer break. Use them the moment you feel control slipping.
Recognise warning signs and seek support
Warning signs include chasing losses, betting with money you can’t afford to lose, or hiding activity from loved ones. If you spot any of these, pause and reset.
Support services and operator tools are confidential and designed to help. There’s strength in asking early.
18+ only, set boundaries and take breaks
Only adults aged 18+ should use our site, and marketing is not directed at under-18s. Keep betting behind clear limits and prioritise family, work and commitments.
Take regular breaks and treat betting as entertainment, not income. If in doubt, don’t bet.
Where to start: resources and next steps
Bookmark this page and use it alongside our bookmaker comparisons and promotions. Combine fundamentals, disciplined staking and price shopping for sustainable results.
When you’re ready, explore our reviews and click through our affiliate links and banners to licensed UK operators we trust. T&Cs apply, 18+ only.
Click banners to compare odds with confidence
The quickest upgrade to your edge is getting the best available price. Use our banners to compare live odds and offers across trusted UK bookies in seconds.
Moving from average to best lines adds value without extra risk. Make it a habit before every bet.Please gamble responsible – online gambling is for 18+ aged adults only. Please review the terms of the online casinos and bookmakers we advertise here on our site.
What is Best Of Bets and how does it help me bet smarter?
Best Of Bets is an independent UK affiliate site providing plain‑English betting education, bookmaker comparisons and verified offers from licensed UK bookmakers to help you price markets, manage risk and shop the best odds.
How do I convert fractional, decimal and American odds?
Convert fractional a/b to decimal by (a/b)+1, decimal back to fractional by (decimal−1) as a fraction, and American shows +X as profit per 100 or −X as the stake needed to win 100.
How do I calculate implied probability from any price?
Implied probability equals 1 divided by the decimal price (or b/(a+b) for fractional), indicating the chance the odds suggest for an outcome.
What is overround and why do bookmakers’ prices differ?
Overround is the bookmaker’s built‑in margin that makes total implied probabilities exceed 100%, and because margins vary by operator, shopping prices can immediately improve your value.
Which market should I choose: 1X2, Draw No Bet or Double Chance?
Choose 1X2 for maximum price and variance, Draw No Bet to reduce risk with stake returned on a draw, or Double Chance to cover two outcomes at shorter odds.
What are Asian handicaps and goal lines?
Asian handicaps and totals (e.g., +0.25 or over 2.25) split stakes across lines to reduce draw risk and better match your view of team strength or expected goals.
How do I identify a value bet?
You’ve found value when your assessed probability is higher than the price‑implied probability after margin, so build fair odds, shop lines via our banners and only bet when an edge exists.
What staking plan should I use to manage my bankroll?
Set a bankroll you can afford, stake in fixed or proportional units, consider capped or half‑Kelly for edges, and use firm daily limits and loss stops to control variance.
How should I compare welcome offers and bonuses?
Compare offers by checking wagering, minimum odds, expiry and payment method exclusions in the T&Cs, and only opt in when a promotion fits bets you already plan to place.
Who can use your site and partner offers, and how do I bet safely?
Our content and partner offers are for UK adults aged 18+ only; bet responsibly, use bookmaker limits and support tools, and never gamble money you can’t afford to lose.
