As 2024 ends, the year’s final column previews the first raceday of 2025; Cheltenham New Year’s Day.
As many of you will know, despite this being a free column for people to read, I keep a P/L for two reasons.
Firstly, it gives me a point of reference. In my spreadsheet, I can see we had a bad March and April, but June and October were months to remember.
I can also see that despite picking up 16.2pts of profit on Boxing Day, and despite finishing December in profit by 17.35pts, I managed to give back 6.8pts across the 27th and 28th of December.
Secondly, and very similarly to my first point, it gives you a point of reference.
I know P/Ls are usually saved for paid services, but you take up your time to hear what a guesser like me has to say, so it’s only fair that I keep a record of results.
Now, as we turn into 2025, we sit on a total profit of 59.8pts (March-December) at an ROI of 10.3%. I hope those numbers are nice for you all to see.
Going forward, I don’t know whether to reset the P/L or continue, so if any of you could let me know in the comments of my Twitter post or in my DMs, I would be greatly appreciative.
Happy New Year everyone, and let’s dive in.
1:30 Cheltenham – Bowtogreatness @ 15/2 with BetVictor (2 places) – 1pt EW
We’re starting 2025 with a horse who plagued me throughout 2024. That’s right, hello, Bowtogreatness.
I had no money on the day he won at Newbury off 129 two starts ago for two reasons. Firstly, I thought it was a quick turnaround (12 days) from his seasonal reappearance and secondly, I thought the good ground was against him.
He proved me wrong that day, but he ran like a drain on similarly good conditions at Newcastle in late November which makes me think he does have an affinity for softer ground.
When looking through the form book, he won on heavy ground at Leicester, heavy ground at Ffos Las, and he finished a good third in the Coral Trophy off 132 on soft ground.
The form of that race looks fine as the second, Al Dancer, bolted up in the Badger Beer two starts later and the fifth, Sam Brown, won a veterans chase at Ascot before finishing third in the Charlie Hall Chase.
Off 132, I think he can win some nice races with this rating and I’m keen to see what he can do on a slower surface.
1:45 Musselburgh – Liari @ 13/8 with BetVictor – 2pt Win
Liari has taken a bit of money this season already, but I hope I can cash in on his return to Musselburgh.
He won the Scottish Triumph Hurdle last year around the course quite easily, and he also got the better of Knight Of Allen at Aintree who is now rated 123 having finished a good third in a valuable 2m3f Haydock handicap hurdle.
The track is set to be hit by rain on Wednesday morning as well, and that will help soften up the surface which is going to help his chance.
Ben Bromley is the pilot of choice with Harry Cobden on duty at Cheltenham, and with Bromley’s valuable 5lb claim, he runs here off an effective mark of 124.
I think that’s a really good mark for this horse, and I think Wednesday is the day he returns to the winners’ enclosure.
2:05 Cheltenham – Colonel Harry @ 7/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win
I opposed Colonel Harry in the Coral Gold Cup due to ground reasons, but with imminent rain forecaste for Prestbury Park, I think he’s the answer to the feature 2m4f handicap chase.
If, and I hope my ‘calculations are correct’, we get soft ground by the time this race rolls around, I would have ground concerns for Springwell Bay, Gemirande, Midnight River, and Lisnamult Lad.
They can all go on the surface, but are they at their best? Unsure.
Colonel Harry, on the contrary, has won on soft and heavy to his name, and arguably his best piece of form comes when beating Trelawne in the Grade 2 Towton Novices’ Chase on soft ground last season.
Trelawne has a rating of 152 now and the 20-length third, The King Of Ryhope, finished a close fourth in the Grade 2 Reynoldstown Novices’ Chase subsequently.
The handicapper kindly dropped him 2lbs for a poor Coral Gold Cup effort to a mark of 146, and on what is his second start in handicap company over fences, I’ll keep him in the book.
