Best Of Bets

Category: Horse Racing

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood – Day Four

    We’ve had some bad luck in the past couple of days. But now we know; the ground will be soft on Friday, and yesterday’s racing showed where the better ground is. Blue Rose Cen couldn’t find a gap as all the jockeys poured to the far side rail to deny her a British Group One. But that was yesterday, and today we are back, with four more at Goodwood.

     

    SITTIN’ ON THE DOCK

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    2:25 – Thoroughbred Stakes (Group Three) – Docklands @ 9/2 (General)

    Docklands has been on an upwards trajectory this season. Winning the Brittania at Royal Ascot meant he climbed up the weights again and now finds himself in group company. However, it was over soft ground where he made his biggest impact, winning by six-and-a-half lengths at Ascot in May.

    And he won’t mind the sharpness of the Goodwood track, having conquered Kempton and lost by a neck at Haydock as a two-year-old. With Nostrum odds-on, and he has never raced on ground softer than good, he makes perfect sense.

    Keep an eye on Jessie Harrington’s Bold Discovery in stall four, as he has performed well at similar levels on soft/heavy ground over in Ireland, and 14/1 (General) looks too big of a price.

     

    WE’VE GONE AWAAL

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    3:00 – Golden Mile H’cap (Heritage H’cap) – Awaal @ 11/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Simon & Ed Crisford have had a very quiet season, but they’ve a well-handicapped runner here. Awaal has a great record on soft/heavy ground, running in second in the Lincoln in March. He then went on to finish third in his next two British races, and now has a useful claimer on board in Harry Davies. Cheeckpieces are on him for the first time, which will sharpen him up and give him a solid chance, if he can overcome stall 12 and get to the far side in the straight.

    David O’Meara has a great record in the Golden Mile, winning two out of the last three. And he is determined to keep that record going with six runners in the race. The one I’m siding with is Bopedro. He’s been racing over seven furlongs in the first half of the season, but steps up to a mile when the ground has got softer. His mark of 100 might not be a winning one, but conditions are suitable for him to be up there at the finish, and a solid each-way chance at 20/1 (Boylesports).

    There’s also some chance for Johan, making his seasonal reappearance. It seems the conditions haven’t been ideal for him, and now William Haggas has felt the time is right. Whilst Lattam takes the limelight, Johan could run similar to his 2022 Lincoln win which came off a pound lower than his mark today. 28/1 (William Hill) is a steal of a price.

     

    THE GOODWOOD SPRINT QUEEN

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    3:35 – King George Qatar Stakes (Group Two) – Highfield Princess @ 10/11 (General)

    Highfield Princess is a top quality horse. But she hasn’t been showing it on bare form. But she was unlucky up at York, and both runs at Ascot. The drop down in class will help, and the soft ground won’t be a problem to her. She’s drawn near the pace in stall three, with Ponntos in stall five. With Highfield Princess drawn near towards where the better ground may be, she has fantastic chance to get her first win of the season.

    Keep an eye out for Nymphadora, who is improving all the time, and showed her class at Sandown. Soft ground won’t be a problem, and can make a good step up in class and keep improving. 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK) is a cracking price.

     

    SCOTCH IN SUSSEX

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    4:10 – L’Ormarins King’s Plate Glorious Stakes (Group Three) – Hamish @ 4/5 (General)

    Hamish avoided the clash of the generations last week, and has opted to come here. Which gives him a much better chance, and his ideal conditions. Hopefully it won’t be long before we see him step up to Group Two’s and One’s later this season.

    Finishing in behind him, Epictetus has got first time cheeckpieces on, and should relish this lower grade, and softer conditions are good to him, even though he ran a stellar race at York on good-to-firm.

    And Epic Poet was a consistent runner in France, before moving to Freddie and Martyn Meade’s. His run at Newbury was a bit of blow out, but could bounce back over a further trip on soft ground and a sharper test at Goodwood.

    Those three could make a valuable tricast.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

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    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

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    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

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    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

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    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Glorious Goodwood Day 3 Bets – The Top Three

    Well, the tides have certainly turned on the Sussex Downs, and by tides, I actually mean a monsoon of rain over the last 24 hours.

    The official going touched heavy on the round course following consistent rain all day, something that caused a few horses to bounce on the conditions.

    However, all of the rain has passed through – until at least Saturday anyway – so let’s try and find a few soft-ground lovers.

     

    1:50 Goodwood – Promoter @ 17/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opening contest is for three-year-olds over the 1m2f test of Goodwood and in a field full of horses that could be anything, the Ralph Beckett-trained PROMOTER is an interesting each-way angle at 17/2.

    Having raced five times so far in his career, he broke his maiden tag on his second start on soft ground over seven furlongs at Chepstow when he gave seven pounds away to Racingbreaks Ryder and won eased down at the finish; the runner-up that day has since won four races on the trot and officially improved 18 pounds, so that race looks like good form.

    Following two more runs at seven furlongs, he stepped up to 1m2f on Derby day at Epsom and was a big eyecatcher in the Lestor Piggott Handicap to finish a staying-on fifth on good-to-firm ground, a surface that wouldn’t have been preferable.

    This week’s run is his first since that day at Epsom, suggesting that connections have kept one eye on this race for a while, and out of the Dubawi mare Hereawi, a two-time winner on soft ground, he should power through the heavy conditions on Glorious Goodwood Day 3.

    Plenty here will find the softer surface to their dislike based on their pedigree, so siding with one who should be okay with conditions is a safe play.

     

    2:25 Goodwood – Vandeek @ 7/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    In the proceeding race, the Group 2 Richmond Stakes, there will need to be a good animal in the field to beat VANDEEK at the top of the market.

    Trained by Simon & Ed Crisford, who could have a good day if Chesspiece runs as well as I think he can in the Gordon Stakes, the Havana Grey colt was very impressive last time out at Nottingham to win by just under a length.

    That may not sound world-class, however, he blew the start under Andrea Atzeni, who retains the ride, made a lot of ground up through the pack and won going away in good-to-soft ground.

    Although he is by Havana Grey, a sire who wouldn’t be known for his soft ground progeny, his damsire is Exceed And Excel who isn’t averse to adding soft ground ability to any pedigree and his dam is siblings with the 113-rated Sirocco Breeze, a soft ground winner on debut as a three-year-old.

    This year’s renewal of the Richmond Stakes looks an average one at best and this could be easy pickings for Vandeek.

     

    5:55 Goodwood – Rogue Spirit @ 12/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, I’m taking a swing on one returning to form in the lucky last with ROGUE SPIRIT at 12/1 with William Hill.

    Although he has been beaten a collective 38 lengths on his last four starts, this three-year-old last visited the winners’ enclosure at Haydock in September 2022 when beating Al Dasim on good-to-soft ground.

    Including the seven-pound claim of Connor Planas on that day, Tom Clover’s contender received nine pounds from the runner-up who has gone on to improve 19 pounds thanks to a Group 3 victory in Meydan earlier this year.

    Since then, Rogue Spirit has yet to race on softer conditions, something that is beneficial to his chances as a Dark Angel gelding out of a New Approach mare.

    Hopefully, the heavy going, first-time blinkers, and booking of Tom Marquand will spark improvement as he looks well-handicapped off 87.

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Two

    Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).

    But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    Goodwood

    FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS

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    2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)

    Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.

    Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.

    This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.

    It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.

    According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.

    Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).

     

    HACKING THROUGH THE TURF

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.

    Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.

    Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here

    PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE

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    3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)

    Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?

    It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.

    Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.

    Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.

     

    Galway

    FUN AND GAMES

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    6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.

    He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.

    But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.

    One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.

    A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!

    12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.

    The very best of luck!

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 2 Bets – The Top Three

    Due to the frustrating results on the Sussex Downs yesterday for Bestofbets.com readers, only one place could help me wind down for the evening.

    Yes, that’s right, if you were looking for somewhere to watch Harry Cobden hose up on an odds-on nag, Fergal O’Brien hit the target with one runner, and the famous Sam Twiston-Davies drive, then Worcester Racecourse was the course to be at.

    In all seriousness, we dipped our toe into the five-day meeting yesterday with two agonising seconds, so with hope for better results today, let’s dive into my Glorious Goodwood Day 2 bets.

     

    1:50 Goodwood – Amleto @ 2/1 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    Starting with the opening contest of the day, I believe that AMLETO will oblige at the top of the market for William Haggas and Tom Marquand.

    A lot seems to be on the side of this Sea The Stars thee-year-old over the 1m4f test of the Coral Handicap, most of which the soft ground following a downpour of rain overnight; the thrice-raced gelding won on soft ground last time out, so he should handle conditions.

    Furthermore, a well-reported fact is Amleto’s stunning pedigree as he is a full brother to the 2018 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe runner-up Sea Of Class and a half-brother to last year’s Irish Cesarewitch winner Waterville.

    Of course, relations aren’t always destined to be as good as each other, however, there is some encouragement behind the strength of his family as his dam, Holy Moon, has produced 12 offspring that have gone on to achieve an RPR of at least 90, which is impressive.

    The 240,000GNS yearling purchase is definitely well-regarded by all connected, something that was backed up by jockey Tom Marquand after his Chester win, as he said: “That’s why you rush yourself back, to ride horses that are exciting for the future – Amleto is a horse that’s learning and building on what he’s been doing and he’s certainly going the right way.”

    Therefore, although he is a short price, I hope that will be justified by the time the opener concludes.

     

    2:25 Goodwood – White Moonlight @ 7/1 with BetVictor – 1.5pts EW

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    The Group 3 Oak Tree Stakes is always a difficult race to work out and this year is no different as I have made cases for at least five runners throughout the last few days.

    After deliberation, WHITE MOONLIGHT is the one I’ve landed on at 8/1 with BetVictor.

    Two horses represent Godolphin in this contest at similar prices with her and Dream Of Love, who initially caught my attention thanks to her second to Mawj on soft ground in Meydan, however, her back-class doesn’t immediately suggest that she could run to a rating of around 110 to win here today.

    Whereas, the Saeed bin Suroor-trained White Moonlight could be a very good mare in the field who, despite being the oldest in the field, can improve and continue her rich vein of form.

    Since returning to the track in June 2022 after a 971-day lay-off, she has a plethora of good form with fellow owner-mates Soft Whisper and Wild Beauty (both rated 106) as well as her close second to the 112-rated Saratoga Oaks winner With The Moonlight earlier this year.

    After that, she returned to the UK and following an easy run at Lingfield, she beat Heredia on good-to-firm ground at Musselburgh before her massive effort to succeed over the well-fancied Queen Aminatu on the all-weather at Chelmsford.

    Those two runs put her on a great trajectory to perform well this week and considering her dam, Fitful Skies, placed in a Listed event on very soft during her racing career, she can feasibly be a better horse in slower conditions.

     

    3:00 Goodwood – Baheer @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    Finally, to complete the trio of fancies from the first three races, I can’t let BAHEER slip past me in the Group 2 Molecomb Stakes.

    When I did the Only Fools Live Horses Goodwood preview on Monday evening, Richard Hannon’s two-year-old by Mehmas was an 11/1 poke with some firms, and although I did expect to see some price movement before flag fall at 3:00 today, I wasn’t expecting him to half in price.

    Saying that, Herridge Racing Stables regarded him as the best two-year-old before the season began and although he disappointed on his first start at Newbury, he quickly put that aside to win in early July.

    He looks to be a horse who has plenty of speed over six, so today’s drop back to five furlongs shouldn’t be a worry, and in what looks like a beatable Molecomb field, I’m with Baheer under Pat Dobbs.

  • Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    Glorious Goodwood Day 1 Bets – The Top Three

    The Top Three is back in profit!

    Following the success of Random Harvest at 10/3 in the Group 3 Valiant Stakes – who was 8/1 when highlighted on last week’s Ante-post Analysis column – and Baradar at 7/1 (with an SP of 16/1) in the International Stakes, the P&L is in profit of 0.435 after taking into account My Prospero’s loss.

    So, with the wind in our sails, here are my bets for Glorious Goodwood Day 1.

     

    3:25 Goodwood – Iberian @ 13/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    The first fancy of the day comes in the opening Group race at Glorious Goodwood and it is IBERIAN under champion jockey William Buick that has grabbed my interest.

    Two-year-old contests at this time of the year can be tough to work out due to experienced juveniles meeting unexposed rivals who could be anything, and in today’s Vintage Stakes, the once-raced Lope De Vega colt is the one I’m siding with.

    Having won impressively at Newbury last time out, only two of the 12 rivals behind him that day have come out and won since, something that is a worrying statistic, however, the manner in which he powered away from the field should still hold merit.

    Furthermore, although he was a non-runner on the weekend due to unsuitable ground, I wouldn’t be too concerned about slower conditions as Lope De Vega’s are usually ground-versatile and his dam, Bella Estrella, was a winner on yielding as a three-year-old.

    In a not-so Vintage Stakes, this 200,000GNS purchase from the Tattersalls October Yearling Sale is well regarded within his yard and holds plenty of interest at a nice price.

     

    4:00 Goodwood – Isaac Shelby @ 11/4 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    Directly following the first Group race for two-year-olds is the Lennox Stakes and Brian Meehan’s ISAAC SHELBY is the one I’ll be siding with.

    The Night Of Thunder colt has been a consistent type this season thanks to his win on soft ground in the Greenham Stakes first time out, his second in the French Guineas behind Marhaba Ya Sanafi, and fourth in a competitive renewal of the St James’s Palace Stakes at Royal Ascot.

    All three of those runs look to be the best form on display in this contest and the three-year-old will receive a six-pound weight-for-age allowance against his elders which has him best at the weights on official ratings.

    Although one would have to respect last year’s runner-up, Kinross, at the top of the market, I’ve been slightly underwhelmed by his runs so far this season and personally, I wouldn’t mind seeing him on a better surface.

    Therefore, defending the honour of the three-year-olds, I’m hoping that Isaac Shelby can put in a blinder in the Lennox.

     

    5:05 Goodwood – Stormy Sea @ 4/1 with BoyleSports – 2pt WIN

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    Finally, in the penultimate contest of the day, the well-bred STORMY SEA will carry my money going into the 19-strong fillies’ handicap.

    Firstly, the second-favourite, Rowayeh, is one who should be feared as the form of his victory over Mystic Pearl at Sandown last month has been franked with the runner-up winning the Listed Coral Distaff next time out.

    However, with the slightly softer ground on the agenda today, I’m preferring to side with the half-sister to Bay Bridge who should handle any give in the ground.

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    Firstly, her Group 1-winning relation has his best form on soft ground – as shown by his win in the 2022 Group 1 Champion Stakes – so the official going description of good to soft, good in places, will suit.

    Secondly, if you can ignore her run last time out in Listed company, her success on seasonal reappearance at Haydock was visually very impressive and the second, Lmay, has since won a maiden and finished fourth in the Listed Aphrodite Fillies’ Stakes at Newmarket.

    All in all, Stormy Sea has plenty on her side today and on a tough day of punting, she would be the NAP.

  • Qatar Goodwood Festival 2023 | The outsider betting

     

    Having examined the favourites for the week, how about some Glorious Goodwood outsider betting?

    With over half the 37 races on the card holding 15+ runners, there is ample opportunity for punters to find a big winner.

    So, just who is on BestofBets’ outsider betting radar?

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    The Champ weighs in – 20/1 BetVictor

    We begin with race number three of the week, the Coral Chesterfield Cup and have our beady eye on Marhaba The Champ.

    A record of two wins in seven for trainer Kevin Ryan is not so shabby and in the right conditions, the winner of the Knights Solicitors at the Dante Meeting could have his day once more.

    Sixth in the Betfred Handicap on Derby Weekend, the eye-catching rap sheet of the British colt is that one win came on the good to soft in September of last year.

    A 10/1 price in his last win in beating Marie’s Diamond, Marhaba is most comfortable over 1m1f, but with a furlong more on the trip has in the past made an impression.

    Double the price in the early going, there is no reason to suggest his chances are any lesser.

    Indeed, if the chips fall, Marhaba, could again be, The Champ.

     

    Armed and ready – 25/1 BetUK

    Jumping next to Wednesday’s Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes, we are going somewhat out of our comfort zone, we admit, but Sydneyarms Chelsea has bipped onto the radar.

    In what will be the filly’s first run of the season for Charlie Hills, we turn to her record on the good to soft as evidence for an educated punt.

    Fifth last time out way back in September 2022, on her debut season, both Ryan Moore and William Buick rode her to winners at Newbury and Deauville.

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    A girl who likes the ground a tad softer, that is exactly what she should get at Goodwood this week.

    On paper, this might seem a real punt, but having placed in all five contests, maybe, just maybe, Sydneyarms Chelsea won’t be singing The Blues; far from it.

     

    Oh, Jackie – 33/1 William Hill

    Our third dart looks to the Nassau Stakes and though this is some considerable step-up in quality, Jackie Oh may be ready to lay it down.

    Returning to winning ways at Gowran this past weekend, the 3yo made it two wins as a debutante victor at Naas in March.

    Her only British outing at Royal Ascot saw a 20th in the Sandringham and may explain her bottom-of-the-barrel status in this particular race, but is that the true story?

    There are indicators that Jackie digs the mud, and though Goodwood is unlikely to be a bog, a soft feel underfoot will more than suit.

    Aside from coming here with a win – in the soft, no less – Jackie Oh’s curtain-raiser was on heavy ground; that was followed by a runner-up on similar going.

    Granted, her win in Ireland can be taken with a pinch of salt, but any horse good enough for Aidan O’Brien is good enough for us.

    And, as we always say, never overlook a horse arriving with winning form to a major festival.

     

    Taca chance – 16/1 BetUK

    In Friday’s Coral Golden Mile, the Class 2 race for 4yos+ will likely be the biggest field of the week and therefore, finding a winner is quite the task.

    Tacarib Bay may, however, present a decent punt for our final outsider betting punt.

    Despite being only 4yo, Richard Hannon’s ride feels like something of a journeyman.

    With just two wins in 16 races under rules, a last win came over a year ago last summer at Haydock, however that was on the soft – conditions which, as documented, may shape the week.

    Since then, Tacarib Bay has been runner-up twice but having been gelded in May, returned to action this past weekend in the Moet & Chandon.

    As Baradar went on to take the winning post, if we study the evidence above, Tacarib Bay was game over 6f and faded, but there is enough to suggest post-op, of a showing now in the tank.

    Watch for a late move; if his legs are there for the trip, it’s game on.

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day One

    What a Saturday for Four To Follow.

    Three winners, at big prices, it couldn’t have gone much better. It sets up a fantastic week for both Glorious Goodwood and the Galway Festival, a midsummer’s treat.

    Here are four to look out for from both sides of the Irish Sea.

     

    Goodwood

    Hot Hot Hot

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    3:25 – Vintage Stakes (Group Two) – Iberian @ 9/2 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    The Vintage Stakes is always throwing up some useful two-year-olds.

    Highland Reel, Expert Eye and Pinatubo have all won this race in recent years. But the best thing is not one outfit has dominated the race, which makes the betting heat wide open.

    I’ve chosen Iberian because I liked what I saw when he won on debut, travelling smartly to the two pole when everyone around him was being hurried, and looked very professional.

    Charlie Hills isn’t going well at the moment, but he seems to have a knack with his two-year-olds, who have delivered a £27.50 profit to a £1 stake. The horse itself is out of Lope De Vega, so shouldn’t have a problem getting the seven furlong trip.

     

    Keen On Ross

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    4:00 – Lennox Stakes (Group Two) – Kinross @ 5/4 (General)

    I love Kinross. I loved him at the back-end of last season when he won three seven-furlong races on the spin. It is his true trip.

    He won the Lennox two years ago, fending off Creative Force by a neck, on soft ground. He then got chinned himself when losing to Sandrine last year on good ground.

    With the ground expected to be soft, and Frankie on board, I’m expecting another big performance from Kinross, and maybe we might see a repeat of last year’s feat.

     

    Don’t Rane On His Parade

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    4:35 – Goodwood Cup (Group One) – Coltrane @ 10/3 (Unibet)

    Courage Mon Amis was extremely impressive at Royal Ascot. Extremely impressive.

    He’s unbeaten and is ridden and trained by that familiar partnership of Dettori and Gosden. He’s also won at Goodwood this season in preparation for the Gold Cup.

    Why am I against him? Purely on experience and ground. He’s 4/4 and, like the Gold Cup, he’s up against some experienced rivals.

    Coltrane is his nearest challenger and just couldn’t produce over the 2m 4F trip last time out. This time it’s a fairer two-mile trip and Coltrane loves a bit of juice. It’s hard to know what the favourite likes as his two wins on turf have come on good-to-firm ground. Coltrane represents far better value, and can finally show off his Group One potential.

    To follow him in, I’m expecting Giavelloto to be up there. Marco Botti deliberately avoided the Gold Cup and has decided to come here. He’s versatile with the ground, so that’s not a problem and Andrea Atzeni is no jockey to be sniffed at, given his two wins on Stardivarius here.

    He won the Yorkshire Cup, which is always a good early season test, and that little loinger lay-off will have him in good nick for the contest. 14/1 (William Hill) is a perfect price.

     

    Galway

    A Nice Cup For Joe

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    6:40 – COLM QUINN BMW Mile (Premier H’cap) – Joe Masseria @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    The first big highlight of the Galway Festival is the mile handicap, which is 1m 123yds.

    Last year’s winner, Soaring Monarch is rightly at the top of the betting for being set up for this race again, but I’ve decided to go down a more active route.

    Joe Masseria is a soft ground specialist and a Galway C&D winner. He finished third on yielding ground, but that was after a break of the track since the early spring. It was a good set up for this race which looks tailor-made for him. Colin Keane is back on board, and he has a 2/3 record aboard him so looks set for another big performance.

    Gavin Cromwell has a runner in the race that looks as though he has been targeted since the end of the jumps season. Mister Wilson is a C&D winner and also loves the soft ground. A mark of 83 shouldn’t trouble him at all, after narrowly losing to twice winner of the Mile handicap Saltonstall, at Tipperary. He looks a big price at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, Betfred, 10Bet)

    And it wouldn’t be an Irish premier handicap without a battalion of Adrian McGuinness’ taking up nearly half the field.

    Celtic Crown catches the eye with claimer James Ryan aboard, who has a 12% strike rate which isn’t bad for a jockey with a seven-pound allowance. That takes his mark down to 84, which is a big winning mark for after he won the Emerald Mile at the Curragh in 2022 off the same mark.

    Conditions might suit, although if the ground stays heavy on the West Coast of Ireland, be wary. Small stakes at 22/1 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Qatar Goodwood Festival 2023: The favourites

     

    Royal Ascot, done. July Festival, in the books. It’s time for Glorious Goodwood!

    As flat season enters August, hot on the heels of an all-time classic King George VI renewal at Ascot, this week, West Sussex gets its turn in the spotlight.

    With five days of action and 37 races on the card, three Group 1 contests are on the slate.

    But just where will the money be this week?

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    Brit Courage – 5/2 Betfred

    In the opening day’s main event, the Al Shaqab Goodwood Cup takes the spotlight and Courage Mon Ami is the bookies’ favourite.

    But only just.

    Now unbeaten in four, the 4yo gelding sprung a relative upset to win the Ascot Gold Cup at 15/2, edging Coltrane by just under a length.

    The latter was fourth in this contest last year – behind the still absent Kyprios – and the duo lock horns once more over the shorter trip.

    Perhaps the only slight caveat this week for the mount of Frankie Dettori lies in this summer’s unpredictable weather.

    Ascot’s turf this past weekend had a little more juice in it, but was still close to good to soft and will likely be for the off on Tuesday.

    Courage Mon Ami’s two wins since gelding have both been on firmer ground – including at Goodwood in May.

    In conclusion, Coltrane and potentially Eldar Eldarov could push, but this contender should have enough courage, my friend.

     

    Perfect Paddington – 8/15 William Hill

    Never mind marmalade sandwiches, it’s been caviar on a plate from the magical Paddington.

    The 3yo goes for an astonishing seventh win in-a-row in Wednesday’s Sussex Stakes.

    Unbeaten since an Ascot debut last September, Aidan O’Brien’s colt has become the toast of Ballymore.

    Such is the calibre of the son of Siyouni, Paddington is no one-trick pony; he’s won in all conditions.

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    His last outing on the softer turf saw victory in the Coolmore at the Curragh at the start of May, and though amongst stronger company looks the overwhelming favourite.

    Indeed, perhaps only Inspiral – Frankie’s other main hope this week – could hold a candle.

    The only question now is, just when might his winning streak end?

    At 2/5, that is unlikely to be this week; Paddington is poised to make it super seven.

     

    GNashing of teeth – 2/1 BoyleSports

    Moving on, Nashwa then looks to become the first horse since Midday to defend the Nassau Stakes.

    Storming back to victory in last month’s Falmouth Stakes, Hollie Doyle rode the filly’s first win since that last trip to Goodwood 12 months back.

    Fending off Richard Hannon’s whopping 40/1 shot Aristia, rain might be a slight concern for John and Thady Gosden.

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    However, Nashwa still has a decent record in said conditions, with a win in France last summer.

    The youngster’s main challenge looks to come from the unbeaten-in-five Blue Rose Cen.

    It is worth considering though, having not run since late June, all five wins for the Irish girl have been on French soil.

    And, with the bit between her teeth, we’re anticipating another gutsy outing from Nashwa.

     

    Prancing Princess – 11/8 William Hill

    As we complete our look at the big names, is this finally the week Highfield Princess re-asserts her authority?

    Lining up in the King George Qatar Stakes, the Yorkshire-based French wonder is yet to win this season, but the effort is there.

    Putting on a much-improved showing in this year’s Jubilee Stakes, the Princess was nonetheless forced to watch Khaadem romp to a stunning victory.

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    Before that, runners-up in the Kings Stand and the Clipper Stakes at York have come this season but so far, the pieces have not quite fallen.

    That could be about to change at Goodwood.

    Having been third in the 2021 Whispering Oak, her last win came on the soft at the Curragh last September.

    Over the same 5f trip, Highfield Princess is currently a full 7pts up in the markets over her rivals.

    Following on from a decent weekend at Ascot for Jason Hart, this will surely be the return to winning ways for this glorious mare.

  • Four To Follow: Huk, Line And Sinker

    Four to Follow might not be in the best of form, but last week Savethelastdance, saved our blushes and this week we start anew. It’s a cracking card at Ascot, with a King George to savour, and York is also in the limelight too. Let’s see if we can Prosper for Gold up North and Huk a Bara-load of money at Ascot. Here’s this week’s four to follow…

     

    Ascot

     

    PURPLE REIGN

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    3:00 – Moet & Chandon International Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Baradar @ 7/1 (William Hill, 888 Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

    As soon as I looked at the declarations on Thursday morning, my attention was immediately on him. Baradar has been one of the handicap horses to follow this season, but he’s not paid the dividends. But this looks like the race for him to do it. He’s finally off his mark of 97 and dropped a pound to 96 and has first-time cheeckpieces on, which is always a positive. Conditions are ideal, given how well he ran in the mud in the Lincoln. Plus a wide stand-side draw is boosting his chances further.

    Further down the market, our old friend Escobar is in this race for David O’Meara. The man from Malton (well Upper Helmsley) loves a big Ascot handicap and has the eye-catching booking of Frankie Dettori. He’s been dropping in the weights since his last win over C&D in October, and is down to his last winning mark. Ground conditions will be similar and a good each-way play at 16/1 (William Hill)

     

    LET’S HUK’EM

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    3:40 – King George & Queen Elizabeth Stakes (GROUP ONE) – HUKUM @ 5/1 (William Hill, Unibet, Betfred)

    My colleague Neil Levrett has given you a comprehensive guide to the big race, and mentioned that Hukum won’t like the ground too much. But with little rain forecast, and a prevailing wind I think the ground could dry out to good ground by the off time. But to win this race you need stamina, and what the two three-year-olds lack is stamina. Hukum has won over further, and on similar goings. Ratings go out of the window, and the form that Hukum has can put him over the rest of the field.

    Hamish is another horse I can fully get behind in the each-way market. Hamish has plenty of stamina, winning over a mile-and-six last time out. And, as mentioned before, stamina is crucial. C&D winner back in October is also a tick. But he isn’t a Group One horse, and his best success can often be found around Group Three. But with stamina, ground and trainer in form, there’s nothing stopping him causing a shock at 50/1 (General)

     

    York

     

    GIMME GIMME THE GOLD

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    2:40 – Sky Bet Dash H’cap – Aberama Gold @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    Aberama Gold has been supremely well handicapped and can build on her fifth last time out up at Ayr. Mark Winn is one of my favourite jockeys at the moment, and his crucial three pound claim can make the difference. With three pounds taken off, a winning mark of 85 comes into play. O’Meara will know that and also will know that he can perform on any sort of ground. A wide draw will help too and puts Aberama Gold closest to the money.

    Tim Easterby is another who likes to get involved with the big handicaps and has a decent hand here. Hyperfocus is the one that I’m intrigued in, as he’s great on anything with soft in the going, and a mark of 94 is doable, particularly when he finished second in a York sprint on the same mark two years ago. 16/1 (Boylesports) is too bigger price to ignore.

     

    WALKING AWAY, WITH IT

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    3:15 – Sky Bet York Stakes (Group Two) – My Prospero @ Evs (10Bet, BetUK)

    William Haggas will have has this race lined up more than seven days in advance for My Prospero. We’ve seen the Haggas team have a bit of a rise and fall this season, not producing winners at Ascot, but starting to get back on track. He ain’t giving up. You have to rewind back to 2013 when he last won this race, but York is in his DNA. My Prospero will love the ground, and can build on his two Group One runs this season, by dropping down a grade. If he doesn’t win, I shall be suffering from Insomnia for weeks.

    In other news Craig David is performing afterwards (spot the references above)

    The very best of luck!