BestofBets Road to Cheltenham Festival – Cheltenham Trials Day Races
This weekend, as the racing world gather for the Cheltenham Trials Day Races, BestofBets.com have taken a look at what horses are set to impress at the main Festival in March.
Cheltenham Trials Day has known for throwing up Festival winners and with a nine-race card day, it’s certain to shine a light on several hopefuls. But the questions is… who will come out of left field?
In fact, since the turn of the century, a total of 38 Cheltenham Festival winners had their final start before their big day at Prestbury Park on the Trials Day card with the Cleeve Hurdle proving the Big Daddy of the meeting, finding no fewer than 11 Festival winners in the last 22 years.
Saturday promises to provide a rich source of Festival fancies and while some horses, including Energumene, in this year’s re-routed Clarence House, will only solidify their already obvious Festival chance, there will be some that use this weekend to announce themselves on the Cheltenham stage.
Gordon Elliott’s Hollow Games
Hollow Games is a fascinating entry for Gordon Elliott in the Novices’ Handicap Chase at 12:10 on Trials Day and it will be interesting to see what mark the UK handicapper gives him.
He finished 3rd in the Martin Pipe Handicap Hurdle at the festival last season (14/1 for the Plate Handicap Chase in 2023) off a mark of 143 and has made a good start to his chasing campaign this season. He won by four lengths at Navan on his chasing debut in November before finishing 4th at Leopardstown in the Grade 1 Novice Chase behind Saint Roi. This step up in trip would suit him well and it will be interesting if he takes up his engagement or if it just an exercise to find out his UK mark.
Two debutants to challenge Delta Work in the Cross Country
Delta Work (7/4 favourite) will no doubt prove popular in the Cross Country Chase at the Festival but two interesting entries for Saturday are Grand National winner Minella Times and Becher Chase winner Snow Leopardess who would both be making their debut in this discipline.
Double the runners for rearranged Clarence House Chase
Gary Moore has decided to supplement Editeur Du Gite for the Clarence House Chase which has brought the number of runners up to six from the original three intended runners last weekend. He capitalised last time when Edwardstone unseated Tom Cannon at Kempton and he will ensure a good pace for both Energumene (8/15) and Edwardstone (15/8) to aim at during this race.
The battle for second in the Gold Cup ante-post market
Noble Yeats continues his path to the Gold Cup in the Grade 2 Cotswold Chase where he faces both Protektorat and Frodon who have both shown good form at the course. The winner will more than likely prove to be second favourite behind Galopin Des Champs for the Cheltenham Gold Cup after this race and it will be a fascinating watch.
Paisley Park bids for fourth Cleeve Hurdle
The Cleeve Hurdle looks set to be a big field this year and Paisley Park will go off a short price (11/10) to win this race for a fourth time. A fascinating opponent is the Paul Nicholls trained Gelino Bello (7/2) who reverts back to hurdling having fallen last time behind Thyme Hill at Kempton over fences.
He had won his previous four starts in a row including over this trip in the Grade 1 Sefton Novices’ Hurdle at Aintree last season so he worth taking a chance on in what looks a weak division.
Saturday Best Bets:
12.40 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Chase:Singing Banjo
15.00 Dahlbury Stallions At Chapel Stud Cleeve Hurdle: Paisley Park 11/10
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The recent news that, in 2022, clubs in England had spent £1.78bn – at least three times more than clubs in any other country – on transfers, was not a major surprise. You only have to look at how that spending has continued into January 2023 to see how such a figure was reached.
It seems the Premier League’s elite have a bottomless pit of money into which to delve when the going gets tough. Mykhaylo Mudyrk and Noni Madueke’s recent moves to Chelsea are examples of that; although the past week has seen a club at the other end of the table flounder in the transfer and managerial market.
Step forward Everton. It has, in short, been a terrible week to be a Toffee. From another damaging defeat in the Premier League against West Ham, to the sacking of Frank Lampard and a slightly listless search for his replacement. Now Everton are struggling on the transfer front, too.
Anthony Gordon is desperate to clinch a move away, with Chelsea (for once) not at the front of the chase for his signature. Newcastle are closing in, instead, with the bookies putting them at 2/7 to become Gordon’s next club. It looks unlikely that he’ll be seen in a blue shirt again.
Everton also lost out to Tottenham in the scramble to sign Arnaut Danjuma on loan from Villarreal, while midfielder Amadou Onana is another player on Merseyside who is attracting interest from sides further up the table. Here’s the shock: Chelsea are reportedly interested, although Arsenal (9/4) are favourites to be his next club, according to the odds.
There is some light at the end of the Goodison Park tunnel, though. Hakim Ziyech is on their radar and is likely to move, given Chelsea’s need to trim a few from their gargantuan squad, while former West Ham and Stoke striker Marko Arnautovic – who came close to joining Manchester United in the summer – is also being linked to Everton.
On the managerial front, Marcelo Bielsa is the man wanted by the powerbrokers in the Goodison boardroom, however a breakthrough with the legendary Argentine does not seem imminent. He needs some convincing to take the job, with Ralph Hasenhuttl not keen and Sean Dyche seen as a ‘firefighter’ rather than a long-term option.
The bookmakers still think Dyche is the favourite (4/5 at the time of writing) with Bielsa 5/2 at best, but the situation is incredibly changeable right now.
That pretty much sums up the past few weeks when it has come to both transfers and managerial ins and outs. Clubs in the Premier League rarely stand still – for better or worse – and this January is the ultimate example.
Strap yourself in and let’s see what the rest of 2023 has in store. It won’t be boring.
They say there’s no rest for the wicked; well, nor for any of the English clubs in 2023 following the World Cup break at the end of 2022. Despite a packed Premier League and Carabao Cup schedule of late, there’s still time for clubs to break off for the FA Cup fourth round – and there are some mouthwatering fixtures, to be fair.
BestOfBets previews three cup ties that deserve your attention on the final weekend of January and picks out some smart value-for-money bets…
Manchester City vs Arsenal, Friday @ 8pm
It goes without saying that this clash between the top two in the Premier League is the standout tie of the fourth round. Pep Guardiola and Mikel Arteta have gone from close confidants to direct rivals, although their respective team selections for this game will speak volumes about how much they value the cup.
It’s likely that Arteta will rotate more than his fellow countryman, given Arsenal’s position at the league summit and the smaller squad at the Spaniard’s disposal. Guardiola has the luxury of a deeper squad and that may prove the pivotal factor at the Etihad Stadium on Friday night.
City should edge this one, although it could well be an entertaining and close affair.
Our tip: City to win and both teams to score (14/5)
Preston vs Tottenham, Saturday @ 6pm
If you’re looking for an upset in this weekend’s cup action, look no further. Preston might be firmly wedged in Championship mid-table, on a mixed run of form (two wins and three defeats in their past five), but they’ll be fired up for the visit of Tottenham Hotspur.
Antonio Conte’s side are lacking a spark right now. And although they’ve completed the signing of Arnaut Danjuma – from under Everton’s noises – they may be susceptible to a fiery Deepdale atmosphere, especially if Conte makes changes. Much again will rely on Harry Kane – providing he starts – and his goal threat, amid Son Heung-min’s abject spell of form.
Preston are way out at 8/1 for the win, with the draw 4/1. Both represent decent value against an off-colour Spurs right now.
Manchester United vs Reading, Saturday @ 8pm
On how many fronts can Erik ten Hag keep competing with this threadbare Manchester United squad? We may get an answer to that question at Old Trafford on Saturday night, although it still seems a bit much to expect Paul Ince to pull off a giant killing against his former side with Reading.
The Royals are another mid-table Championship outfit who take on a Premier League behemoth in this year’s fourth round and they’ll surely struggle – even against a rotated United team. Ten Hag’s men have one foot in the Carabao Cup final, so expect the understudies to come in: the likes of Scott McTominay, Alejandro Garnacho and (whisper it) Harry Maguire.
A United win by a small margin makes the most sense, either 1-0 (15/2) or 2-1 (8/1) to keep them in the hunt, on another front.
Three Premier League fixtures to bet on this weekend
With the title race, the scramble for the top four and the relegation fight all still wide open, this season’s Premier League is proving hugely entertaining. BestOfBets previews three of this weekend’s most intriguing games and picks out our top tips and predictions for what lies ahead…
Liverpool vs Chelsea @ 12.30pm, Saturday
Not long ago, this game would have been billed as a clash between two of the Premier League’s heavyweights, both in with a shot of the title. Yet between them, Liverpool and Chelsea have just three wins in their past 10 combined league games; it’s a game between ninth and tenth at Anfield on Saturday lunchtime.
So with the top four slipping away from both teams, and Graham Potter under considerable pressure not to lose another game at Chelsea boss, the draw seems the overwhelming favourite here. At 3/1, you’re getting good odds on it, too. The bookmakers certainly aren’t backing an away win – Chelsea are out at 16/5.
If you fancy new boy Mykhailo Mudryk to bag on his Blues’ debut, he’s 15/1 to grab the first goal, although the safe money is on Darwin Nunez or Mo Salah to break the deadlock (both 5/1).
Our tip: 1-1 draw (6/1)
Crystal Palace vs Newcastle @ 5.30pm, Saturday
Crystal Palace will be buoyed by Michael Olise’s late goal to clinch a draw against in-form Manchester United on Wednesday night, while Newcastle remain firmly in the hunt for the top four thanks to United dropping points. But it means this contest under the Selhurst Park lights on Saturday evening is a difficult one to call.
Both Patrick Vieira and Eddie Howe have made their teams tough to break down, so it’s hard to envisage a high-scoring contest in south London. There’s possibly some value in betting against Newcastle – they’ve failed to win their past two away games – given the draw is appealing, again, at 13/5.
But Palace are inconsistent and Howe’s troops keep finding ways to grind out victories. So a 1-0 win for the Magpies is probably the best bet here.
Our tip: 1-0 Newcastle (11/2)
Arsenal vs Manchester United @ 4.30pm, Sunday
This is the game everyone has been looking forward to all week – and it could have huge ramifications for the title race. United, however, aren’t coming into it with the same level of confidence that many expected following their 2-1 Manchester derby triumph. Their 1-1 draw at Crystal Palace and the loss of key man Casemiro due to suspension has put a spanner in the works for Erik ten Hag.
Arsenal are justifiable odds-on favourites at 19/20. They’ve swept aside virtually all that has been in their way this season – with their only defeat being that 3-1 reverse at Old Trafford in September.
Expect the game to follow a similar pattern: fairly open, United playing on the break, Arsenal dominating possession, with Marcus Rashford and Bukayo Saka likely to star. An entertaining draw is a good bet, but trying to predict the exact score might prove difficult.
Former England international Shaun Wright-Phillips spoke exclusively to Best Of Bets about the fortunes of his former clubs Chelsea and Man City, as well as Frank Lampard’s situation at Everton.
Wright-Phillips believes both his former teammate Lampard and Chelsea boss Graham Potter need time to turn their clubs around; he also assessed the transfer policy at Stamford Bridge under Todd Boehly. Find his exclusive interview here:
What do you make of the situation facing Graham Potter right now?
“It’s tough. Of course, I still love the club, still love the fans there and it’s tough to see them go through it. But I think in general, with everything that’s happened at Chelsea in the last two years, obviously with the situation with Roman [Abramovich] and somebody finally coming in, [Thomas] Tuchel getting sacked and the new manager coming in, I think it’s going to take time to change.
“And it’s not just a change at manager level, it’s a change for the whole club. All of those things take time, it’s not something that happens overnight. I think if Chelsea want the success they once had, they need to give a manager like Graham Potter that time. You don’t become a bad coach overnight. In general, he’s proven in the last few years with Brighton how capable a manager he is, with the players he improved and the position he left them in. Once he gets 11 first team players fit and the squad playing the way he wants, I think Chelsea are going to become a massive problem in the Premier League.”
What have you made of Chelsea’s transfer policy under Todd Boehly?
“It’s a bit fire off the hip if I’m honest! You can see what they’re trying to do. A lot of the players they are signing are very young, which goes back to a model that City had, Liverpool and Arsenal have done it, and Newcastle are going down that route too. At the minute because it’s an emergency with the injuries, a lot of the signings are a bit panic buy.
“But in general, the players they have signed – especially Joao Felix – and the centre back Benoit Badiashile who played the other night, he was outstanding as well, are good. So it’s just a matter of gelling them and Potter getting his head together for them to play the way he wants them to play.”
What do you make of new Chelsea signing Mykhailo Mudryk?
“I’ve seen him in the Champions League. I think he’s something that Chelsea have needed. If you go back to the days of [Arjen] Robben, [Damien] Duff, partly myself, Joe Cole – Chelsea could play direct with those wingers. They would get the ball down and take people on. There’s a guarantee that Mudryk will do that, he will get at defenders and get to the byline and put a ball in, or get shots off.
“And when Joao Felix started against Fulham, I thought he brought something to that team that we hadn’t seen in a long while, going past people and trying to create chances. He was a catalyst in that first half against Fulham – Chelsea had 18 shots in the first half, which I don’t think they’ve had in a full season or longer. That’s the part of Chelsea I’ve thought was missing. You can only defend for so long, you have to give something at the top end and I think he [Mudryk] will do that.”
What about your former Chelsea teammate Frank Lampard, can he turn things around at Everton?
“He’s having a tough one. But the thing at the moment is the fans are more focussed at the board, which in a sense takes a little pressure off Frank. The fans are realising it’s not just the manager, because they’ve changed the manager so many times in the last two years. It’s not the manager, it’s not the players, it’s starting from the top.
“We know Everton have got the nice stadium coming, but they need investment, in coaching staff, physios, extra players – and the fans want the owners to put their hands in their pockets. Everton is a massive club; they’re one of two clubs that have never been relegated and nobody wants to see that happen. I think Frank can turn things around, but one thing that’s so hard for a coach to stop is individual errors around the pitch, those lapses of concentration. Everton need to nip that in the bud, play like they did against Man City for example, and you’ll be surprised how many points they can pick up.”
What about Manchester City? How did you assess their performance in the Manchester derby?
“I thought the performance was good, to be honest. They possessed the ball, they created chances and they controlled the game. It was good in a way and for the neutral, to see Man United on the verge of coming back, because we always want a derby to be feisty, end-to-end and not one team dominating.
“The turning point was that bizarre offside decision that wasn’t given because once that happened, in a way it spoiled the game. I just thought it was offside. I couldn’t get my head around it, for the officials to say [Marcus] Rashford is not attempting to play the ball, yet what he’s done changed the decision of the two centre-backs and the goalkeeper, because they’re assuming he’s offside. To be fair, I was raging! But that’s football and that one game doesn’t define anything in my opinion.”
What do you think of where Man City are at right now and why things haven’t quite gone to plan?
“See, I don’t actually think it’s gone that wrong. People are starting to question a lot of things that, in my view, don’t need to be questioned. The only thing I can say is that we’re used to see City score a lot of goals away from home. That’s tailed off a little bit from earlier in the season. But otherwise they’re dominating games and scoring goals. You’ve got [Erling] Haaland on 21 goals – that’s two goals away from what the golden boot has been in previous seasons.
“Ultimately the Premier League is the toughest league in the world, there are no easy games, and you’ve got a team like Arsenal who are absolutely flying right now and playing at 100 per cent every game. Whether they can carry that on until the end of the season, remains to be seen. All it takes is for Arsenal to draw a couple of games and City to win a couple and the table looks completely different again. Anything can change even within the next month.”
Should Man City consider going into the January market to help them?
“Where would you buy? In defence, you’ve had [John] Stones with a little niggle, you’ve got [Ruben] Dias on the way back, [Aymeric] Laporte on the verge of coming back. At full-back, you’ve got [Joao] Cancelo, Sergio Gomez and [Kyle] Walker and then you’ve got Rico Lewis. At the moment, not everyone’s fit, so I don’t think there’s anything to worry about. City have got brilliant and elite talents double in every position.
“I personally don’t think there’s a rush to buy players or a reason to go into the January market. They’ve had that transfer philosophy for some time and it’s been working. The players they buy have to suit the way they play, like Akanji and Gomez slotting in from the summer. The recruitment is so perfect and tailor-made to the City foundations, it’s almost like they’ve come through the academy. The only difference is Haaland, but they’ve adapted to the way he plays and he’s adapted to City.”
What’s your prediction for how the top four will finish?
“Just to wind my dad up I’m going to say City first, Arsenal second, and I actually think Newcastle are going to finish in the top four. The way they’re playing, especially defensively with I think 11 clean sheets this season, is phenomenal. The last one is the hardest but I’m gonna say United, I think they’ll sneak in there, saying that through gritted teeth!”
Manchester is red. United beat City in the derby amid a rapturous Old Trafford atmosphere to ensure as much. And with that victory, the chances of red ribbons adorning the Premier League trophy in May grew even likelier.
Are Manchester United actually in the title race? That’s the question on many fans’ lips right now, and perhaps their visit to Crystal Palace on Wednesday night will give a good indication of the answer.
The bookmakers still clearly need some convincing when it comes to Erik ten Hag’s side. Most are offering 12/1 for United to break their 10-year title drought in the Dutchman’s first season, but those odds will shorten if United win both their games this week. After Palace comes a crucial visit to league leaders Arsenal.
United’s squad suggests they will falter at some stage. They’ve won nine on the bounce now and they’re unbeaten since the World Cup hiatus, although many argued they got a slice of luck with Bruno Fernandes’ equaliser against City on Saturday afternoon.
Still, nobody is in better goalscoring form than Marcus Rashford, who bagged the derby winner to clinch his ninth consecutive Old Trafford goal. His recent away record isn’t bad either; Rashford netted the winner away at Wolves on New Year’s Eve and scored three in Qatar on World Cup duty with England.
A bet on Rashford to open the scoring at Palace this week is tantalisingly priced at 6/1 and therefore worth a flutter. United’s goals aren’t coming from too many alternative sources. Both Antony and his namesake Anthony Martial are concerns up front for some fans, while Bruno Fernandes’ strike versus City was his first United goal since November 10th – and just his fourth all season.
Palace are safely ensconced in mid-table, although their recent form is patchy. Arsenal legend Patrick Vieira would love to take points off his old foes and further boost the Gunners’ title hopes. But his team have won one from their past seven games, scoring just three goals in the process.
Wilfried Zaha is the most likely Palace player to find the net, and how he’d enjoy scoring against his former team. But 8/1 for Zaha to break the deadlock isn’t a very appealing price, given his teammates’ struggles to create goalscoring opportunities.
All the indications are that United will make it 10 on the bounce and continue to chase down Arsenal. But Selhurst Park under the Wednesday night lights and a vociferous Eagles’ support might just give Ten Hag’s men a tricky test.
It will be close. But United are an unstoppable machine right now, with fans justifiability excited about the sleeping giant finally awakening. A United win is odds on at 11/13 and that’s where the safe money is for this one.
Chelsea keep spending with summer scramble inevitable
As Chelsea continue to splash the cash to try and save their season from further embarrassment – and offer Graham Potter the life raft he so desperately needs – the rest of the Premier League have hit something of a buffer in terms of transfer productivity. Mykhailo Mudryk has arrived at Stamford Bridge for a fee that could rise towards the £90million mark, while Manchester United have brought in the budget signing of Wout Weghorst on loan from Burnley.
But what else can we expect in the final couple of weeks of the window? Again, it’s Chelsea dominating the headlines and the gossip columns.
Brighton’s Moises Caicedo – who was once on United’s radar and, in fact, had agreed a move (for a paltry £4.5million to Old Trafford back in 2020 – is now being heavily linked with Chelsea. Everyone is familiar with Todd Boehly’s transfer policy by now and the American owner isn’t happy that his club failed in their pursuit of Argentina World Cup star Enzo Fernandez.
Caicedo is a real talent in midfield and a decent alternative. The 21-year-old starred, albeit briefly, in the World Cup, for Ecuador and has been very solid for Brighton this season. The bookies think he’ll end up at Chelsea, who are 7/4 with many to be the Ecuadorian’s next club. Liverpool are 4/1 to snare him from the south coast club.
United continue to appear regularly in the transfer columns, with Anthony Elanga of genuine interest to Borussia Dortmund on loan, which would be a blow to Frank Lampard who wanted the Swedish forward at Everton. Scott McTominay has also been linked with Newcastle.
In terms of incomings at Old Trafford, Youri Tielemans is the latest midfielder name to do the rounds. He’s been touted as a possible cut-price target from Leicester City this January, although the bookmakers believe Newcastle may be his next club, offering 4/1. Some are giving 2/1 odds for Tielemans to make United next home; others are less convinced at 10/1.
Otherwise, it seems many are braced for a quiet final fortnight in the January window, with Jude Bellingham one of the names that will surely come to the fore when the summer business kicks in. In fact, with Bellingham, Fernandez and Frankie de Jong all on the midfield merry-go-round this summer, it could be a fascinating six months ahead.
As always, United, Chelsea and Liverpool will be in the mix for the cream of the crop, with Arsenal quietly content with their squad given the current look of the Premier League table, and Manchester City rarely involving themselves in the transfer circus – unless it’s for a clutch, Pep Guardiola approved target.
You can never quite rule anything out in the madness of the January window. But, save for Boehly and Chelsea, many of the English elite are keeping their powder dry at the moment. It may only take a couple of defeats in the coming week or so to change that state of zen.
Manchester United are heading into a derby with Man City in the most optimistic mood possible, following a streak of eight successive wins. Couple that with City’s indifferent form, compounded by a miserable 2-0 Carabao Cup defeat to Southampton in midweek, and Erik ten Hag may never get a better chance to paint the city red.
Yet the notion that United are actually favourites for the Saturday lunchtime cross-town clash is debunked by the bookmakers. City are still City; Pep Guardiola still boasts incredible talents, and Erling Haaland still has 21 goals in 16 Premier League games – an extraordinary return despite a quieter post World Cup period. For all those reasons, a City win at Old Trafford remains odds on at 10/11, with the draw 3/1 and United at 16/5.
Those United odds are an indication, however, of how far Ten Hag has taken this team. They’ve come a fair distance from the side that was demolished 6-3 at the Etihad in October. In truth that defeat should have been heavier and only two late Anthony Martial goals saved United from further embarrassment.
City have made sure Manchester remained blue after the past three derbies, in which they’ve struck 12 goals past United goalkeeper David de Gea.
This fixture last year had the most modest scoreline, just 2-0, although Ole Gunnar Solskjaer and his players looked bereft of ideas as City cruised to a straightforward win without ever releasing the handbrake. The manager didn’t last much longer, and the starting lineup is quite different now, too.
The additions of Casemiro and Christian Eriksen to the United midfield make them a better side on the ball, while Lisandro Martinez’s partnership with Raphael Varane at the back make them more solid off it. Meanwhile, Marcus Rashford is in irresistible form in attack – he’s scored in eight consecutive home games and has seven goals in his past six – and tends to show up in derbies.
For once, though, City may have more Mancunian players in their lineup than United, if young full-back Rico Lewis is selected along with Phil Foden by Guardiola. Lewis has capitalised on the poor form of Kyle Walker and Joao Cancelo for City this season, but throwing the 18-year-old into the cauldron of an Old Trafford derby would be a serious gamble by the City coaching staff.
Guardiola will have to hope Haaland finds the form that saw him net a hat-trick on his derby debut in October and that Kevin de Bruyne returns to something approaching his best form. Both looked off the pace against Southampton. Foden also scored three in the derby earlier in the season, but whether the Stockport-born forward starts over the in-form Jack Grealish and Riyad Mahrez remains to be seen.
It should all come together to make the most intriguing derby since the Solskjaer years at Old Trafford. The Norwegian found regular success against City by priming his players for the counter-attack with a deep lying defence. Ten Hag’s instinct will be to match City, especially buoyed by a home crowd.
Will that be the Dutchman’s downfall on his first home derby day? Or can United finally take the bragging rights for the first time at Old Trafford since Covid? For fans of both teams, it will be a tense watch; neutrals can just sit back and enjoy.
As we head into another weekend of Premier League action, Best Of Bets highlights three fixtures to keep an eye on, and pick out our top tips for a flutter…
Brighton vs Liverpool, Saturday @ 3pm
Just a point separates Brighton and Liverpool in the league standings right now. You would have got fairly long odds for that to be the case almost halfway through the season. And that’s why this is a particularly dicey game to predict, given Liverpool’s major travails of late and the inconsistent nature of the Seagulls under Roberto de Zerbi.
Jurgen Klopp isn’t happy with his squad right now, that much is clear. So after a fortunate 2-2 draw against Wolves and a 3-1 defeat at Brentford, you can expect a response from the Anfield club down on the south coast. Their form means they’re decent value at 6/5, with Brighton 12/5 and the draw 14/5.
Something has to give in this clash between two of the Premier League’s worst sides. Everton and Southampton have just six league victories between them from a combined 36 attempts this season. Frank Lampard is under far more pressure, however, than his counterpart Nathan Jones who is still new to the Saints’ job and has a morale-boosting Carabao Cup win over Manchester City now under his belt.
And with the grumbles of the Goodison Park crowd likely to grow louder if they dare concede first in this clash, the smart money may be on Southampton at 12/5, even if the draw does look quite appealing at 5/2. The Toffees are 24/19 with many bookmakers but there’s no value in backing Lampard’s beleaguered troops right now.
The North London derby plays second fiddle to the Manchester derby in terms of attention and publicity this weekend, though it’s no less sizeable in terms of its impact on both the title race and the top four. For the first time in a number of years, Arsenal are huge favourites to win on enemy territory, having only dropped points in three games all season.
Antonio Conte continues to get some kind of a tune from this Spurs side, but he’s not happy with their inconsistent performances. Expect a tense and tetchy affair at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium, with Arsenal justifiable favourites at 6/5 and Tottenham 9/4. The draw might be the best bet at 13/5. Surely the Gunners have to falter again at some stage?
Fulham are in their best form since the start of the season whilst Chelsea is struggling like never before.
Fulham, who only got promoted last season, has had a great season so far, with confidence and team spirit at an all time high. And although many were wondering whether the team could keep it together following the World Cup break, Silva’s men have proved the doubters wrong with four wins since the restart of the season and a defence that’s appears to be stronger than ever.
Meanwhile, Chelsea is struggling in a way we haven’t seen this team down for year. And despite some key signings, including Graham Potter, they can’t turn things around.
Right before the World Cup, Chelsea ended with four defeats in five games and now, after the WC, the situation is even worse. The team has a couple of wins in the last 15 games and they need immediate results.
However, Fulham have the weakest defence in the Premier League, ranking last in expected goals conceded. But the team makes up for it in attack: according to the expected goals scored, they take the 6th place in the league.
The team prefers to act as the second number (47.3% possession across all PL matches this season), which makes it possible to stretch the opponent’s team across the field and free up dangerous areas in front of his goal in order to carry out a quick attack. By the number of average direct attacks per game, the hosts take the 5th place in the entire league.
Frustratingly for Fulham, the team’s top scorer, Aleksander Mitrovic, will miss the upcoming match due to too many yellow cards. Of all the team’s goals, 42% were scored by the Serbian striker.
This is not the first game of the season he has missed. But in all the games he missed, Fulham lost and scored an average of just 1 goal.
Chelsea have not been able to demonstrate quality football after the return of English football after the World Cup. Apart from them win over the outsiders Bournemouth, Chelsea have failed to produce good results and recently suffered another massive defeat to Man City.
We expect a massive game here and there is no guarantee that either team will win it. In each case, we definitely see Fulham scoring a goal or even more and the real problem is whether Chelsea will find the net with their current form. The team has one win in all ten most recent games in English tournaments and in quite a few of those, they failed to score.
We do not think that Fulham will lose this game with their current form. Of course, there is a huge difference in those two teams but even with the obvious class of Chelsea, they are going through their biggest crisis in a while. On the other side, Fulham are in a series of four wins in a row in all tournaments since the restart after the World Cup and they have conceded but a single goal to date.
Perhaps Chelsea will find a way to get at least a point from this match. Fulham are not that much stronger and they generally faced four weaker teams to date while Chelsea had two games against Manchester City. This is the time to shine and we think that Chelsea will get a point.
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