Best Of Bets

Day: 31 May 2024

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Star performance in the Derby

    Epsom Derby Festival | Star performance in the Derby

    We started day one of the Epsom Derby Festival in good form yesterday thanks to Teej A in the opener.

    The subsequent fancies failed to pick up money, so let’s hope the Derby Day selections can bring us back up into a profitable weekend.

     

    1:25 Epsom – Whiskey Pete @ 12/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Kicking things off in the opener, Whiskey Pete is a really interesting runner for Ralph Beckett, a stable that is hitting good form.

    The three-year-old by Night Of Thunder cost 180,000gns at the 2023 breeze-up sales and from his five career runs, he was favourite four times, two of those when odds-on.

    The time he wasn’t an SP favourite came on debut at Newmarket, and that race is arguably his best piece of form.

    He finished second to Aablan at Newmarket, now rated 102 having won a Group 3 on his next start, while Magsood finished third that day who won easily at Beverly on his next start.

    Furthermore, Bellum Justum – the Listed Blue Riband Trial winner – was fifth that day, though that probably wasn’t his true running.

    Since then, Whiskey Pete has probably disappointed his connections due to expectations and his price tag, and he even didn’t complete his final start on his first start of the season.

    That was also his first try at 12 furlongs, and while it’s not great that he did pull up, I’m sure that was a blip.

    Due to his pedigree, it’s good to see connections keeping him to this trip as he is a half to the 110-rated Candleford and useful Atty Persse, both of which won 1m4f Royal Ascot handicaps.

    All in all, Whiskey Pete could have a few pounds hidden up his sleeve off 89 today.

     

    2:00 Epsom – Breege @ 7/1 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the second race of the day, Breege has a good chance to break her losing run in the Group 3 Princess Elizabeth Stakes.

    Since her debut success at Wetherby in May 2022, she’s 0 from 11 runs which is a worry, but her form looks strong in this type of company.

    In the 2022 Group 3 Keeneland Stakes, she was third to the subsequent Group 1 winner Lezoo and then finished six lengths behind Blue Rose Cen in the 2022 Group 1 Prix Marcel Boussac.

    Having run in the Irish 1000 Guineas first-time-out, she gave three pounds away to Coppice when second to her in last year’s Sandringham Stakes, form that looks good as the winner was fifth to Nashwa and fourth to Inspiral in two subsequent Group 1 runs.

    As for her last run, she was on the wrong side of the track at Goodwood when third in the Listed Conqueror Fillies’ Stakes, and she’s likely to come on for that run.

    The slight give in the ground should cause no issues having placed on soft before, though if the track dries out she’ll also handle that.

     

    2:35 Epsom – Royal Scotsman @ 13/2 with William Hill (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    I almost left this race alone, but by a process of elimination, Royal Scotsman jumps out as one to chance in the Group 3 Diomed Stakes.

    Yes, last season dropped away quality-wise after his third in the 2000 Guineas at Newmarket, but pieces of his form look attractive in this company.

    Starting with his run in the British 2000 Guineas, he finished ahead of Charyn (placed in this year’s Lockinge Stakes), Noble Style (third to Shaquille in the Carnarvon Stakes), Galeron (fifth in the Irish 200 Guineas), and Indestructible (fifth in the St James’s Palace Stakes).

    Furthermore, his disappointment in the Irish 2000 Guineas came as such a shock to his connections that they sent him for x-rays subsequently. He was also sent off the 6/4 favourite for his stint at the Curragh, a race that included Paddington, Charyn, and Galeron.

    After a pipe-opener in the Lockinge Stakes, the jury is still out as to whether he retains his ability, but Saturday is his best chance to show us all what he is made of, and the slightly softer conditions will suit him.

     

    3:45 Epsom – Dream Composer @ 10/1 with Bet365 (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Epsom Dash is one of my favourite handicaps of the whole year across both the Flat and National Hunt codes.

    This is potentially due to my Tony Carroll-tinted glasses as he won this race in 2014 with the legend Caspian Prince, so it’s a shame that the main man doesn’t have a runner this year.

    As for this year, Dream Composer looks well-treated on last season’s form.

    The six-year-old is one of James Evans’ top horses in the yard and although his last Flat winner came 73 days ago, he’s only had 22 runners in that time, so the sample size on which to base the stable form off is small.

    His current rating of 89 is seven pounds below his last winning mark, and although he’s now a six-year-old, there’s reason to suggest he’s up to 100% fitness now.

    Throughout his career, he takes a few runs to warm up at the start of the season, though he also runs fairly well towards the beginning of the season as five of his eight wins have come in May or June.

    As for last year, he won at Sandown over five furlongs where he beat Korker who then bolted up in a Class 2 conditions stakes, finished second to Emaraaty Ana in a Listed race, and then won a Class 2 handicap at Ascot.

    Three runs later, Dream Composer ran off the same mark (96) and was third in the Shergar Cup Dash. Rogue Lightening, the winner, finished fifth to Highfield Princess in the Group 1 Prix de l’Abbaye subsequently.

    Joe Leavy keeps the ride, so he takes a valuable five pounds off, and the strike rate between Leavy and Evans is 22%. They also have 11 seconds, four thirds, and seven fourths together.

     

    4:30 Epsom – Dallas Star @ 40/1 with William Hill (0.5pt EW) & Ancient Wisdom @ 6/1 with William Hill (1pt EW)

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    It’s not usually my MO to put up one in early-season Group 1s, especially in Classics when we’re all unsure if certain horses have trained on, but one who has is Dallas Star and he looks overpriced to me.

    Admittedly, his profile isn’t one of a typical Derby winner, but this year’s Derby doesn’t have its usual quality and he made a good impression when he won the Group 3 Ballysax Stakes in April.

    Yes, the Aidan O’Brien runners needed their first runs of the season, but Dallas Star was also having his first run of the season and he beat Illinois and The Euphrates by five-and-a-quarter and three lengths respectively.

    Since then, Illinois was sent off a well-backed 6/4 to beat Ambiente Friendly in the Listed Lingfield Derby Trial (beaten by four-and-a-half lengths) and The Euphrates was eight-and-a-half lengths back in fourth.

    Furthermore, Deepone finished a 10-and-three-quarter-lengths fourth in the Ballysax Stakes which looks like a solid benchmark of form as he won a Group 2 on his final start of last season. He also finished fourth to Capulet (Dee Stakes winner) and Diego Velazquez (French 2000 Guineas fourth) in the Group 2 KPMG Champions Juvenile Stakes.

    He has to improve a little bit, but the extra distance and softer ground will help him do that.

    However, I’ll also have something on Ancient Wisdom as he is another that’ll like the softer conditions.

    Firstly, his form when behind Rosallion in the Listed Pat Eddery Stakes is rock solid and he was also ahead of Devil’s Point, Diego Velazquez, and Dancing Gemini in the Group 1 Futurity Trophy Stakes.

    He’ll come on for his run in the Group 2 Dante Stakes, so his chance looks good.

     

    5:50 Epsom – Flaming Rib @ 11/1 with BetVictor (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the finale of the Epsom Derby Weekend, I’m taking a chance on Flaming Rib, though his price allows me to do just that.

    The five-year-old comes into this race on the back of a 92-day break, and while this would usually put me off, some of his best runs have come when he was a fresh horse.

    He swooped up £190,000 in the Dukhan Sprint in 2023 after a 140-day break, he finished fourth in the 2023 Group 1 Sprint Cup Stakes after a 56-day break, and he travelled strongly in a Class 2 handicap at Lingfield in March 2024 after a 188-day break before he was stopped in his tracks due to a lack of room.

    As for the ground, he’s won on soft, good to soft, good, and good to firm, so he’s pretty versatile and his mark of 104 is workable.

    If connections have made the conscious decision to target this race in order to have a winner in a decent handicap on Derby Day (which I’m hoping is what has occurred), then he has a good chance here.

  • UEFA Champions League Final | Real Madrid primed to regain European crown

    UEFA Champions League Final | Real Madrid primed to regain European crown

    Real Madrid look to win a 15th European Cup on Saturday evening, as they face Borussia Dortmund at Wembley Stadium in the UEFA Champions League final.

    A first final in London since 2013, the finale also sees BVB make their way to the Home of Football, 11 years on from their last visit against Bayern Munich.

    Repeatedly confounding the bookies this term, Marco Rose’s men look for their first trophy since the 2021 DFB-Pokal and their second European Cup since that famous Munich night in 1997, beating Juventus 3-1.

    Can Dortmund once again defy the odds and claim a second Champions League trophy, or will Real Madrid continue their grip on ‘Ol Big Ears’?

    Real Madrid dominance

    For Real Madrid, though a first final in London it may be, Saturday will be the 19th time Los Blancos have played in a European finale.

    Holding a win-loss tally of 14-5, Madrid boast a stunning percentage win of just under 74% of finals.

    Having surrendered their crown to Manchester City last season, Madrid look to get back what has been almost their own since 2014 – it would be their sixth European Cup in a decade.

    The story of their campaign has been the remarkable form of Jude Bellingham, linking up with Rodrygo and Vinicius Jr to form a potent offense.

    Yet it took a late, late brace from substitute Joselu to stun Bayern Munich in the semi-finals and book their final spot.

    For Bellingham, just days before he heads off to the England camp ahead of Euro 2024, this will be a special night on home soil.

    And for certain, the Birmingham boy will be a central figure on Saturday night.

    Surprise package

    Their opponents Dortmund have been produced something of a turn up this season, not least reaching this year’s finale.

    Punters would have fetched a tidy price placing their faith in the Germans, after being in the same side of the draw as Inter, Atletico Madrid, and Paris Saint-Germain.

    However, despite facing tall odds, BVB eliminated them all.

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    Knocking out the reigning Italians champions on penalties, a narrow aggregate victory over Los Rojiblancos followed.

    Then in the last four, PSG stood before them, but courtesy of Niclas Fullkrug and Mats Hummels goals, Dortmund progressed, impressively without conceding.

    Having proved they can mix it both in attack and defense when needed, Marco Rose’s men have been a revelation.

    Alas, they now face the sternest task of all, against the greatest Club side in the history of European football.

    Betting

    Unsurprisingly, Real Madrid are pretty hot favourites to come out on top, at a best price of 13/20 with William Hill, with Dortmund 5/2 with 888sport to lift the trophy.

    In terms of value punts, Dortmund’s defence has shone in Europe this term and after shutting PSG out, can they do the same to Los Blancos?

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    Therefore, we might ponder a small punt on UNDER 2.5 goals at a better-than-evens 59/50, whilst the braver bettors can go for an unlikely UNDER 1.5 goals at 17/5 both with Unibet.

    On the flip side, and to cover the goal angle, William Hill’s price boost of 5s from 4/1 for Bellingham to score in 90 mins, Real Madrid to win and both teams to score, looks pretty inviting.

    Borussia Dortmund face Real Madrid in the 2024 UEFA Champions League final at Wembley Stadium, London on Saturday evening, kick-off 8pm UK time.

  • Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    Epsom Derby Festival | Four To Follow: Diamonds Are Forever

    It’s the most anticipated classics of the season, as he we head to the Downs. Epsom hosts the 245th Derby on Saturday, but today it’s the turn of the fillies. The Epsom Oaks should provide some clues for the showpiece event, but is still a high quality renewal. Plus a great undercard to tag along too, including the Coronation Cup.

     

    A Mega Story

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    2:00 – Betfred Woodcote Stakes – Megalithic @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Two things need to match in order for a horse to have a chance. Good form and good breeding. Ideally, a sprinter’s family as this is over six furlongs. Megalithic cost 220,000 guineas and is from a predominantly seven furlong family. He has black type too, which is an added bonus. Only one horse has tested the form of the Salisbury novice, and the fifth placed horse went out and won. It signals quality, so Megalithic could go well here.

    End Of Story also makes appeal. He won his first race on testing ground, so will be more than glad that the ground has eased from his debut at Thirsk. His debut produced three winners and is by the smart sprinter Bungle Inthejungle and has bred Group One winner Winter Power. The signs look good for Kevin Ryan’s two-year-old. 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Forever A Softie

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    2:35 – Trustatrader Handicap – Al Mubhir @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Whenever soft is in the title, Al Mubhir is usually near. His usual stomping ground is the King Richard III Cup at Leicester, but goes near whenever the ground is soft. He’s been dropped a pound after disappointing performance at York. The ground was good that day, so will appreciate ease in the ground today.

    Fantastic Fox performed well when finishing third in the 2022 edition, but not so well in 2023. He can handle the track on that evidence. With a claimer on board, he comes down to a previous winning mark of 92. He has gone well on soft ground before, plus firm ground, so preference shouldn’t be a worry. Decent shout at 10/1 (William Hill).

    Bopedro has been incredibly well done by the handicapper after a third place finish at York. He’s been dropped a pound after a decent performance, which makes him even more appealing. He won an Irish Cambridgeshire on similar ground and has won off the same mark before. Epsom’s an unknown, but should go well off the mark. 11/1 (William Hill).

     

    Old Favourites

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    3:10 – Coronation Cup (GROUP ONE) – Emily Upjohn @ 11/8 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    This is Emily Upjohn’s first race of the British season and was a little disappointing. But the big thing that she has in her locker is she won the race last year and loves Epsom, as her first race of the season. She has won on the ground before and the small field will suit her. She’s already top rated, but the mares allowance puts her four lengths ahead of her nearest rival Luxembourg.

    Hamish has been dealt a harsh blow by the markets. It’s clearly his trip, he won’t be pulled out because of the ground and regularly outclasses Group Three rivals. Despite his success at that level, he’s never won a Group One, but came second in an Irish St Leger. He is destined for Group One’s and has been a long time coming. 15/2 (William Hill).

     

    Diamonds In The Rough

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    4:30 – Betfred Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Rubies Are Red @ 7/1 (William Hill, Betfred)

    In order to find these diamonds, I’ve had to search and eliminate as best as I can. Despite Ryan Moore taking the ride on Ylang Ylang. Despite people saying she’s crying out for further, she’s not bred to go a mile-and-half. Ezeliya is, but the form doesn’t back her up. Forest Fairy is bred for the distance, but lacks experience.

    Rubies Are Red, however, has everything in her favour. Brilliant breeding, out of Red Evie who bred Arc winner Found, Oaks third Divinely and Best In The World, who in turn bred Oaks winner Snowfall. Another half furlong and Rubies Are Red would have caught the lagging You Got To Me and will more than relish the mile-and-a-quarter trip. Despite not breaking her maiden she looks tailor-made for Epsom.

    Another small diamond is Secret Satire. York has a knack for providing Epsom winners, and last year’s winner did cause an upset in the Musidora. Despite being bred by a sprinter, her mother offers her the attempt to go further. Coming on from York she should settle better and look more professional here at Epsom. 12/1 (General).

    But one shining light in all of this is Noel Meade’s Caught U Looking. Fourth in the Salsabil, she would have preferred a little more give in the ground like Epsom should have. She’s by Derby winner Harzand, which is a massive positive. She has lots of mile-and-a-quarter running through her bloodline and will be a threat. Stall One may have other ideas. Still worth a go at 28/1 (William Hill).

    The very best of luck!