Day: 10 May 2024

  • Championship playoff semi-finals | Norwich to edge first-leg

    Championship playoff semi-finals | Norwich to edge first-leg

    After a thrilling Sky Bet Championship season, Norwich City and Leeds United kick off a Sunday playoff double-header.

    With a game dubbed ‘the most valuable single game of football in the world’ just 180 minutes away, how are these two sides shaping up?

     

    Lacking form

    The answer to that is, indifferent.

    Form is a huge factor entering the playoffs, but that is hardly a watch-word used for either team.

    In the case of Leeds, having lost four of their last six to end the season, of all four playoff contenders, the Whites’ position is most questionable.

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    But that is not to say Sunday’s hosts finished the term with straight As either.

    David Wagner’s men failed to win in their last three, dropping points in half of the last six, losing to relegated Birmingham City on final day.

     

    Home comforts

    However, when it comes to Carrow Road, the Canaries are very much at home in their Norfolk roost.

    For such a roller-coaster campaign, for Norwich not to have not been beaten at home since way back in November is huge testament.

    On that day seven months back, a Sammie Szmodics brace inflicted a 3-1 loss, but since then, Norwich have won 11 times at home.

    Most impressively, that included again toppling Ipswich Town, putting a sizeable spanner in the promotion works.

     

    Inviting odds

    So how can we as punters approach Sunday’s game at Carrow Road?

    It may be shrewd to note Norwich’s home form, as documented.

    Despite Leeds being installed as favourites to progress to Wembley, the hosts retain significant value this weekend.

    A 12/5 shot with 888sport, Norwich taking an advantage to Elland Road looks plausible.

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    In any event, goals should be on the menu.

    For Norwich to score in both halves, a boosted 15/4 punt from 3/1 with BoyleSports, should attract interest.

    Meanwhile, despite a down-turn in form, Leeds will be pinning their hopes on star winger Crysencio Summerville.

    The Dutch starlet may have found the net in just one of the last six, but will be a threat.

    A Summerville anytime goal can be grabbed at 5/2 with Unibet.

     

    Norwich City host Leeds United in the semi-final first-leg of the Championship playoffs on Sunday at Carrow Road, kick-off, 12:00 BST.

  • Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Chester May Festival Day 3 | Friendly draw in Chester Cup

    Day two at the Chester May Festival was a crossbar-hitting day as Witness Stand recovered EW money when second to Never So Brave but Bracken’s Laugh couldn’t reel in Capulet in the Dee Stakes.

    Still, the EW return from Witness Stands’ 18/1 price covered the outlay from the rest of the day by 0.5pts, so let’s roll into the final day of the Chester May Festival.

     

    1:30 Chester – Boardman @ 8/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the opening contest, Boardman is trying to win this race for the first time having finished fifth in the last two renewals.

    Although stall 10 does hinder his chances slightly, the last two renewals occurred on soft and good-to-soft ground, so today’s better ground is a benefit to the eight-year-old by Kingman.

    Down to a mark of 94, he is three pounds below his last winning mark (which came over course and distance) and one pound below his last winning before then (which also came over course and distance).

    Furthermore, this is the time of year to catch him (seven from nine in the month of May) and he’s had a preparation run at Haydock on ground too soft for him to put in a solid effort.

    Jockey Phil Dennis guided him to his last success and he returns to the saddle, so he has a few things in his favour to put in a solid showing here.

     

    3:05 Chester – Mashhoor @ 10/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Although Hamish is an absentee from the Group 2 Huxley Stakes, the contest is a wide-open betting heat and Mashhoor stands out to me at 10/1.

    Johnny Murtagh’s six-year-old by Kingman hasn’t had the easiest career to date as he was late onto the scene as a two-year-old and has only raced 15 times for his age, but he seems as good as ever.

    He won three races on the bounce last season, though the most notable win came in the Group 3 International Stakes at the Curragh where he beat Al Riffa by nearly five lengths while giving five pounds away.

    Although that was Al Riffa’s first start of the season, the runner-up ran into Ace Impact – the subsequent Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe winner – in the Group 2 Prix Guillaume d’Ornano and then finished a close fourth on his seasonal reappearance in the Group 1 Prix Ganay last month.

    After that, Mashhoor went to the Group 2 York Stakes and ran well to finish fifth of five, though only four lengths covered the field and both Alflaila and Royal Champion franked the form in Group/Grade 1 races subsequently.

    Although he finished sixth in the Group 3 Paddy Power Stakes on his last start of the season, it was his first try at 1m4f and he did the donkey work from the front, so it’s easy to forgive him for that.

    With a run under his belt, Murtagh has probably brought him over to Chester for a reason and he holds an entry for the Group 1 Tattersalls Gold Cup.

    If he navigates stall eight well (he’s a natural front-runner, so he could well do this easily), he can outrun his odds.

     

    3:40 Chester – Too Friendly @ 12/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Spirit Mixer @ 20/1 with William Hill (6 places) – 1pt EW both

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    In the Chester Cup, two horses have caught my attention, the first of which is Too Friendly for James Owen.

    Although the majority of his last runs have occurred over obstacles, that doesn’t hinder his chances as Metier won this race last year and he had a similar profile.

    As for Too Friendly, he gets in here off a Flat mark of 89 having won snugly at Kempton two starts ago, though his form over jumps shows he is clearly a good horse.

    As a juvenile, he was fifth in the Boodles Juvenile Handicap Hurdle behind Brazil and Gaelic Warrior and this season he finished just under three lengths behind Rubaud in a Listed hurdle over two miles.

    Rubaud ran into both Constitution Hill and Lossiemouth after that, so the form looks strong.

    His profile is an interesting one, though so is the profile of Spirit Mixer for the in-form Andrew Balding stable.

    By Frankel out of a Dubawi mare, he finished second to Trueshan in the Northumberland Plate in 2022 off a mark of 97, so his rating of 94 (and Callum Hutchinson’s three-pound claim) make him well-handicapped here.

    He’s had a few issues during his career, but a return to better ground will help and one can imagine this had been a plan.

     

    4:50 Chester – Chillhi @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    In the penultimate race, Chillhi has plenty in his favour at a course he has previous form at.

    The four-year-old had a decent juvenile season in 2022 as he won snugly twice and then ran in the hot £100,000 British EBF 2YO Series Final in October 2022.

    That race produced Streets Of Gold (rated 105), Legend Of Xanadu (rated 98), and Shouldvebeenaring (rated 112).

    As for his three-year-old season, his luck ran out, but most of his runs occurred in Class 3 and Class 2 contests, so today’s Class 4 assignment will be a welcome drop in grade.

    The one time he did contest a Class 4 came over the same course and distance as today from stall six; he made up plenty of ground that day, so the task of stall one is welcomed.

    Finally, his current rating of 78 is eight pounds lower than that day and William Pyle takes off three pounds, making him well-handicapped.

  • Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    Four To Follow: Chester Cup Day

    A tricky day, with selections hitting the bar. But Point Lonsdale managed to salvage something from the day. Today, it’s Chester’s big day with the Chester Cup taking centre stage. Some names may be familiar from the jumps who make their way over for one of the longest races of the flat season. Plus a good undercard to make a Friday Four To Follow.

     

    Dreaming Of Wins

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    1:30 – CAA Stellar Earl Of Grosvenor Handicap – Liamarty Dreams @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Liamarty Dreams is looking to make it a hat-trick in this race. He won at Doncaster at the Lincoln meeting, then at Musselburgh after been raised four pounds. It’s the same amount today and looks to be on the big improve this season. Stall two over the seven-and-a-half furlongs makes him all the more appealing for a yard in decent form.

    Revich won this race last year and has a great record on the Roodee. Four wins at the track makes him one of the specialists in the field. He’s back to a mark of 95, a winning mark up at Ayr last season. Plus, a middle draw isn’t the worst thing in the world and can bounce back to form after two lacklustre season openers. 10/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Island Native is a debutant at Chester, but he should be able to handle the tight turns with wins on the all-weather, including Lingfield. He showed a good performance on turf at Brighton last time out. But he’s climbing up three classes for this race, which is a nagging doubt. But the king of Chester, Franny Norton, will be able to guide him round his favourite track. Worth something at 12/1 (General).

     

    May Flowers

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    2:35 – Free Bet Friday Handicap – Botanical @ 7/2 (William Hill)

    Already the form for Botanical has been given an almighty boost. Mr Porfessor went and won the Lincoln this year, but was beat by Botanical by six lengths on his last start of the season. Given that Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian are a red hot classic winning combination, it would make sense to go with what seems to be the second Al Maktoum runner in the race.

     

    It’s Rar Rar

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    3:05 – Huxley Stakes (Group Two) – Israr @ 11/4 (General)

    You can’t argue when you have good ground and the highest rated horse in a race. Israr ticks all the boxes, and comes off the back of a close third at Sandown last time out. He beat former Derby winner Adayar last year at this level at the Newmarket July Festival and has had a decent winter over in the Middle East as well. At the price, it makes sense.

     

    A Ztuck Cup

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    3:40 – Chester Cup (Heritage Handicap) – Zoffee @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    After one appearance in the Chester Cup, Zoffee seemed to be at home with the Roodee. He didn’t act for the rest of the season and comes back here three pounds lower than last season. At a track he seems to like and on a lower mark, plus a tendency to act at this time out the year, Zoffee is my main pick for the Chester Cup.

    Another course specialist who should handle the Cup well is Solent Gateway. He’s raced a few times and only won once, but experience counts round here. He last raced in the Cup off a mark of 90 and is two pounds higher today. Saffie Osborne is in the saddle which is always a big plus, given that she’s operating at a 22% strike rate. An added bonus of being a pound well in the handicap makes 14/1 (General) quite attractive.

    Too Friendly has a shot at a big price. Trainer James Owen says that the track should suit him and acts more in the Summer than he does in the Winter over jumps. He won on the all-weather in March and is only up four pounds for the run, which sees him at one of the lower weights in the field. Small stakes at 20/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!