Best Of Bets

Day: 16 December 2023

  • Cheltenham December Gold Cup | Super Scottish holding leading Irish hopes

    Cheltenham December Gold Cup | Super Scottish holding leading Irish hopes

    Anytime action is on at Prestbury Park, the weekend is always an enjoyable one and that doesn’t change for this year’s Cheltenham December Gold Cup meeting.

    Yesterday saw a potential winner of the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle strut her stuff on her maiden outing at the course while the Glenfarclas Crystal Cup Cross Country Handicap Chase revealed a potential Grand National horse.

    Before we start talking about today’s fancies, a quick word should go to the ground conditions on day one of the Cheltenham Christmas meeting as times from the first three races suggested the course was in great nick.

    The overall times weren’t too far off standard and although they did slow up throughout the day, a dry night could suggest the course is riding just a small bit quicker than the official going of soft.

    Anyway, with a big day of action ahead of us, here are my main plays.

     

    1:15 Cheltenham – Aucunrisque @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 1pt Win

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    The mid-week money came for In Excelsis Deo at the head of the market, and although he should be given good consideration, I thought Chris Gordon’s Aucunrisque could be the forgotten horse of the afternoon.

    Last season’s Betfair Hurdle winner mixed between hurdles and fences last season, with Gordon keen to make use of both handicap marks in the different disciplines.

    So, while his hurdles mark rose to 147 after his Newbury success, his chase mark remained at 144 and even received a two-pound drop after last month’s fifth in the Jim Barry Hurst Park Handicap Chase.

    Although a rating of 142 is four pounds above his last winning mark, the seven-year-old has good form in the book to suggest he could still win off a lenient mark.

    Last season’s campaign began with a novice chase success over Jetoile at Uttoxeter, form that looks good as the runner-up has improved 20lbs thanks to three victories, one of which was in the Old Roan Chase.

    After that, he finished second off 138 to Frere D’Armes at Newbury, a race that saw the third, Datsalrightgino, win the Coral Gold Cup subsequently and the fifth, Balco Coastal, finish second to Gerri Colombe in the Grade 1 Scilly Isles Novices’ Chase in February.

    One month later, Aucunrisque finished a good second to Boothill in the Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase before his Betfair Hurdle success in the new year.

    One run over fences and one run over hurdles this season should have him race fit for today’s task.

     

    1:50 Cheltenham – So Scottish @ 9/2 with William Hill – 1pt Win

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    All week, So Scottish has been my main hope for the December Gold Cup, and as of this morning, the money has come for him.

    6/1 is now just a memory as bookies have squeezed the six-year-old into 9/2 and 4/1, and you can see why.

    Emmet Mullins’ improving Martaline gelding disappointed at the backend of last season, but before his average seventh in the Plate at the Cheltenham Festival, he ran well when second to Boothill (then rated 140, now rated 18lbs higher) over 2m1f.

    Prior to that run, he won over 2m4f at Carlisle and thrashed Railway Hurricane, who reopposes today, at Tipperary in October 2022.

    With a run under his belt at Gowran Park on heavy ground, he should prefer the step up in trip and good racing ground, so hopefully, he can make use of his lenient 141 rating.

    However, he isn’t the only one I’m backing in the December Gold Cup.

     

    1:50 Cheltenham – Do Your Job @ 28/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW

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    In case he is ready to win off a very attractive mark, I’m having a saver on Do Your Job at a big price each way.

    The nine-year-old has disappointed on his last five runs, though the form of his victory at Ayr in the Grade 2 Future Champion Novices’ Chase in 2022 looks very good.

    The second, Minella Drama, has officially improved 11lbs since, and Il Ridoto, a general 8/1 chance for today’s feature contest, was back in third.

    Furthermore, he got to within 10 lengths of Edwardstone in the 2021 Grade 2 Wayward Lad Novices’ Chase, a race that had the now 149-rated Solo back in third.

    If you completely discount last season, Lucinda Russell’s Fame And Glory gelding looks well-handicapped off 136 and the New Course test of Prestbury Park over 2m4f should suit well.

     

    3:00 Cheltenham – Moon D’Orange @ 12/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    Finally, for the main selections, I’m taking a chance that Moon D’Orange could take a big step up on his first start in Graded company.

    The five-year-old has progressed nicely for John McConnell, who is finally finding some form, since his fourth in a 2m4f maiden hurdle at Leopardstown on December 28th, a race that was won by Henry de Bromhead’s Deep Cave with Lot Of Joy and Firm Footings filling the places.

    Fast-forward to this season and after an unseating at Galway, he ran a great race to finish second to the exciting Johnnywho at Carlisle in November with Whistle Stop Tour, an 18-length novice hurdle winner, back in third.

    Having stepped up in trip on his latest start, the Spanish Moon gelding rallied for pressure despite idling slightly on the run to the winning post; as such, connections have reached for the first-time cheekpieces today.

    In a race that isn’t a vintage renewal, McConnell could have another chance to land a pre-Festival Cheltenham winner, something he did with ease last season.

     

    Elsewhere

    Over at Hereford, Lime Avenue looks ready to win at 9/4 on his second start in handicap company (1:35). Better ground is key for him and Angus Cheleda claims a valuable five pounds in the saddle. 1pt Win.

    In the 2:25 at Cheltenham, Malina Girl at 6/1 could be a potential Grand National horse and although she has an extra 11 pounds to carry today, the five-pound claim of Conor Stone-Walsh will negate some of that. She was impressive last time out and the ground should be fine. 1pt EW.

    Finally, in the last, Nurse Susan at 13.2 holds plenty of appeal in a handicap off 125. She had a big break between her fourth at in the Grade 2 Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle in 2022 and her reappearance at Exeter last month, but a return to hurdles should suit and she will now be race fit. Dan Skelton rates her highly and could be useful off 125. 1pt Win

  • Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Four To Follow: Pre-Christmas Cheer

    Christmas is just around the corner and Cheltenham serves up some pre-festive cheer with the December Gold Cup. Plus, Protektorat features in the three-mile handicap, and we get a look in to the Albert Bartlett picture with the Bristol Novices’ Hurdle. All three feature in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    A Storm Is Brewing

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    1:50 – December Gold Cup (Premier H’cap) – Thunder Rock @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Thunder Rock looked every part of the winner when winning the Colin Parker at Carlisle. Mahler Mission backed the form up by stepping up in trip and narrowly missed out on the Coral Gold Cup at Newbury. Thunder Rock has performed round here before, and beaten Monmiral in the process, so has every right to be a well-backed favourite for the race.

    An underrated performer in the field is Frero Banbou. He’s looked more comfortable stepping up in distance than he did last season, and that’s been evident by placing in his last two races. His mark is only two pounds higher than his last winning one and, backed up by Cepage yesterday, Venetia Williams’ horses thrives on this type of ground at this time of year. Decent each-way chance at 11/1 (BetUK).

    Gavin Cromwell is the top trainer at Cheltenham this season so far. Six winners out of 14 runners at a 43% strike rate, he’s the man at Prestbury Park this season. He’s expressed his disappointment of Railway Hurricane being five pounds out of the handicap but has combated that with Connor-Stone-Walsh claiming the five pounds. He’s been placed twice at Cheltenham, and Ginny’s Destiny has backed up the form of his last race. Interesting at 22/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    Let’s Put On A Show

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    2:25 – The Sun Handicap Chase (Premier) – Broadway Boy @ 7/2 (William Hill, Betfred, BetUK)

    Broadway Boy was nothing short of phenomenal on his last start. His love for the course is clear, but a new challenge awaits in the galloping nature of the new course. Fakir D’oudairies’ addition to the race makes Broadway Boy’s weight light and his jumping, if anything like last time, can put him in a league of his own.

    Elvis Mail may be more suited to the borders of Kelso. But a slight three-pound raise in the weights won’t cause him much trouble. His two wins at this level should put him up there, but it’s a tougher test. He can stay and he can handle the ground too, so why can’t he run a big race? 12/1 (General) says he doesn’t.

     

    Bob’s Your Uncle

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    3:00 – Albert Bartlett Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – Shanagh Bob @ 9/4 (BetVictor, Boylesports)

    Shanagh Bob is another one of those exciting novice hurdlers from the Nicky Henderson yard. After the impressive Plumpton win, Henderson was reserved in his judgement and is waiting to see how he handles the step up in trip. He should handle it, given his sole point-to-point win came over three miles.

    The owner of the potato company that sponsors this race, Ronnie Bartlett, has a runner in the race that looks quite exciting. Cadell is trained by Lucinda Russell, who is arguably one of the top trainers up there with the likes of Nicholls and Henderson, and makes a gradual step up in trip, which will be relished. Potential has shone through on his first two starts over hurdles at Kelso and could show up here. A little overpriced at 6/1 (BetVictor, Betfred).

     

    The Local Hero

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    2:05 – Mares’ Handicap Hurdle – Bonntay @ 5/2 (General)

    Paddy Brennan has only two rides over Friday and Saturday. One was on Dysart Enos, which won, the other is on Bonntay. If Bonntay wins, Brennan will bring up a landmark 1500 career wins. What better horse to do it on. A two-time winner around the track, she steps up in trip for the first time since Market Rasen, and the first time up to two-and-a-half miles. It’s clear she’s been wanting the step up and she is a serious horse for the Fergal O’Brien.

    The very best of luck!