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Tag: Ryan Moore

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Royal Ascot Day 5 Tips | Swinging from the Mountains

    Well, Royal Ascot Day 5 is here and we have made it to the end of a long week.

    Away from the betting aspect of the royal meeting, I (as well as many) think that Royal Ascot 2024 has succeeded where Cheltenham potentially faltered this year.

    Great field sizes, competitive contests, no odds-on favourites (to my counting), and a great vibe around the place.

    This isn’t to take any shots at the Cheltenham Festival as many know my love and affection for that meeting, but as a jumps man through and through, Ascot (despite multiple days under a beating sun) failed to disappoint in a year where jump racing’s Olympics had a deflating feeling about it.

    Let’s hope this year was a blip for Prestbury Park’s marquee event in terms of the overall enjoyment, though as we all know, a few changes are required to help that occur.

    Anyway, back to what matters, we are rolling into the final day of the royal meeting on the back of a good week for the column.

    Before the Chesham kicks off action today, the column has secured a profit of 22.5pts from 35.5 staked (ROI of +63.4%), so let’s hope we can continue this nice stretch of form.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Candleford @ 12/1 with BetVictor (3 places) – 1pt EW

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    The two market favourites – Continuous and Middle Earth – are definitely the ‘sexy horses’ in this line-up, but Candleford appeals to me at the prices.

    The six-year-old by Kingman is race-fit, something Aidan O’Brien’s four-year-old by Heart’s Cry isn’t, and Candleford has a big affection for Ascot.

    He was second (when subsequently disqualified due to Adam Farragher weighing-in light) on his Ascot debut and he then won at Royal Ascot in 2022 in the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

    Later in 2022, he finished third to Hamish in the Group 3 Cumberland Lodge Stakes, form that looks solid as his stablemate has won five Group 3s since and he finished second in the Group 1 Coronation Cup on his last start.

    As for his other form, his victory in the Listed August Stakes at Windsor in August 2023 looks good as the second (Solid Stone) had form with Hukum in 2023, the third (Lion’s Pride) ran to an RPR of 119 in the Listed Floodlit Stakes two starts later, and the fourth (Deauville Legend) was fourth in the 2022 Melbourne Cup.

    Following that, his second to Bay Bridge in the Group 3 September Stakes is another great piece of form as he finished sixth to Ace Impact in the Group 1 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe subsequently.

    With a winning return under his belt having claimed success at the Curragh 28 days ago (which has seen Sumiha, the second, frank the form by winning the Group 3 Munster Oaks on her next start), one would hope he’ll improve fitness-wise and he’ll enjoy the fast ground.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Swingalong @ 12/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    In the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes, I can’t ignore the form that Swingalong has in the book.

    The four-year-old filly by Showcasing is a rapid sort who finished third in a good renewal of the Group 1 Commonwealth Cup last year.

    The winner (Shaquille) won the Group 1 July Cup Stakes on his next start, the second (Little Big Bear) was a high-class Group 1-winning two-year-old, the third (Ocean Quest) won a Group 3 on her next start, and the seventh (Shouldvebeenaring) placed in two Group 1s subsequently.

    That is rock-solid Ascot form and she also finished fourth on soft ground in the Group 1 British Champions Sprint Stakes on her final start of the season.

    She has winning form on good ground and last year’s appearance at the royal meeting occurred on good to firm, so the quick surface will cause no issues and she blew the cobwebs off at York last month.

    With a solid Ascot record and Group 1 form to fall back on, she seems like a fair bet at 12/1.

     

    4:25 Ascot – Mountain Bear @ 40/1 with BetVictor (4 places) – 0.5pt EW

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    The Group 3 Jersey Stakes looks like a great contest this year, but Mountain Bear is one I’m interested in at the big prices.

    Many eyes will turn to Aidan O’Brien’s first string, River Tiber, at the head of affairs and he does demand that high level of respect, but the same case occurred last year with The Antarctic and stablemate Age Of Kings won the race instead.

    On last year’s form, he was third to Haatem and Iberian (a highly regarded Charlie Hills-trained horse) in the Group 2 Vintage Stakes on less-than-ideal ground and he finished the season with a great run in the Group 1 Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf on firm ground when second to stablemate Unquestionable.

    Unquestionable has since finished fourth to Rosallion twice this season, the best of which came in this week’s Group 1 St James’s Palace Stakes.

    Mountain Bear is likely to improve for his outing in the Irish 2000 Guineas and O’Brien does have a knack for winning the Jersey Stakes with outsiders.

    Not only did he do it last year, but Mountain Bear’s grand-dam (Song Of The Sea) produced Ishvana who won the 2012 renewal at odds of 20/1 even though the yard had Reply in the contest, a better-fancied runner with good Guineas form in the book.

    Hopefully, something similar can occur this year.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Chipstead @ 40/1 with William Hill (6 places) & Orazio @ 16/1 with William Hill – 0.5pt EW for both

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    The Wokingham is a tough, tough handicap, but I’m splitting stakes and taking a chance on two horses.

    The first is Orazio who is probably my biggest cliff horse on the Flat as I’ve backed him in all of his last five races.

    To begin with, he was my big ante-post fancy for last year’s Wokingham and he finished sixth when well-backed into an SP of 7/2.

    He ran well that day, and while plenty (including connections) thought he wants cut in the ground, that occurred on fast ground and he didn’t seem to hate it.

    This season, he ran respectably on seasonal debut in a fairly strong renewal of the Listed Cammidge Trophy Stakes as the winner (Montassib) finished sixth in the Group 2 1895 Duke Of York Clipper Stakes subsequently and the fourth (Adaay In Devon) won the Listed Scurry Stakes on her last start.

    My theory is that this horse isn’t a six-furlong horse that contains a rapid turn of foot. Instead, he has the ability to travel at a very high cruising speed and maintain that when it matters late on.

    If Saffie Osborne can position him prominently, I think he might enjoy that more than coming off the pace.

    As for Chipstead, this is slightly a sentimental vote as Jack Doughty takes the ride, but he’s back to a winning mark with good form in the book.

    His last four winning marks came off 97, 97, 102, and 97, so today’s rating of 98 is workable and Doughty’s five-pound claim is a massive bonus.

    He was subject to a big gamble on his last start in the Epsom Dash, but he was caught for a touch of speed, so this return to six furlongs at Ascot will suit.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Palace Green @ 10/1 with Paddy Power (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    The Richard Hughes yard isn’t in the best form at the moment (one winner from 33 runners), but the horses look like they are running into form and that is enough to give me hope for Palace Green.

    The three-year-old by Sea The Moon has good form in the book as he was third to Dallas Star, a subsequent Group 3 Ballysax Stakes winner, at Bath on just his second career start.

    He kicked this season off with a nice five-length win at Kempton before running well on his first start at 12 furlongs at York.

    It looked as if he didn’t quite stay the trip that day, but he loomed up ominously well for a while, which offers plenty of encouragement that he’s still improving.

    Furthermore, the winner at York was Aidan O’Brien’s London City, a regally bred colt (by Justify out of the Galileo two-time Guineas winner Winter) who was running off a lowly mark of 93.

    This looks like a little bit of a plan by connections and he’s an unexposed horse to side with here.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    Royal Ascot Day 4 Tips | Dreaming of Albany success

    We’re over the hump as Royal Ascot Day 4 is upon us, and there’s no hiding from the fact that yesterday was tough.

    Stakes were reduced as I thought it was a tough day going into it, and that proved to be right as the four selections didn’t provide any profit.

    We’re still up for the week so far, but hopefully, we can get back on the right track today.

     

    2:30 Ascot – California Dreamer @ 18/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    It’s a small worry that California Dreamer is drifting in the Group 3 Albany Stakes, but if the two-year-old races have taught us anything this week, it’s that juveniles can drift in these markets and still win.

    The Mehmas filly has two runs under her belt having lost at Dundalk on debut when 4/7 and finished third to Fairy Godmother at Naas on her last start.

    On pure form, she is held by the Ballydoyle favourite, but David Egan probably made his move too soon on her when the cutaway opened up which set the race up for the late closers.

    They clocked 42mph and ran three sub-11-second furlongs between the five-furlong pole and the two-furlong pole, and the Amo Racing contender was the one who hit the front three furlongs from home.

    It’s Ascot, so they’re bound to go hard early, but the presence of Wesley Ward’s Burning Pride in stall four should give California Dreamer a nice tow into the race from stall three.

    If so, she has the pedigree to hand (her dam, Penelopa, won the Group 1 Preis Der Diana in 2013 on good ground) and she could outrun her odds.

     

    3:05 Ascot – Givemethebeatboys @ 16/1 with William Hill (4 places) – 1pt EW

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    With the absence of Vandeek and Bucanero Fuerte, the Commonwealth Cup is a wide-open contest, and Givemethebeatboys looks overpriced based on his strong pieces of form.

    The Bungle Inthejungle colt ran at the royal meeting last year and finished behind River Tiber (three-time Group 1 placed subsequently), Army Ethos, and Bucanero Fuerte (Group 1 Phoenix Stakes winner subsequently).

    He was also ahead of Haatem who has placed in both the English and Irish Guineas this season.

    Following a good run after a 53-day break in the Phoenix Stakes, he put in a career-best effort when fourth to Vandeek in the Group 1 Middle Park Stakes, form that looks solid as Starlust (5th) has won a Class 2 handicap off 105 subsequently.

    He defied a penalty to win first-time-out and then nearly beat Bucanero Fuerte in the Group 3 Lacken Stakes last month.

    Bucanero Fuerte was my idea of the Commonwealth Cup winner at an ante-post stage, so Givemethebeatboys’ form ties in nicely with him and he seemingly loves quick ground.

    Stall 14 is preferable over the lower draws in a race like this – which casts a small negative over the top of the market – and he has trained on from two to three.

    He looks like Jessica Harrington’s best chance of the week, so let’s hope he delivers for the team.

     

    3:45 Ascot – Ramatuelle @ 3/1 with BetVictor – 2pt Win

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    The Coronation Stakes is one of the best races of the week, and it’s the Newmarket 1000 Guineas fourth, Ramatuelle, that I like for this.

    Analysing her effort at the Rowley Mile, I’m not the first person to say that she got to the front too soon.

    Aurelien Lemaitre pushed his mount to the front three furlongs from home, and despite hitting an in-running price of 1.01, Elmalka and Porta Fortuna caught her late.

    Although I considered both of these runners as potential horses that could cause her issues, the form Christopher Head’s three-year-old filly by Justify has in the book is hard to ignore.

    On seasonal debut, she finished second to Romantic Style who was a close fourth in the French 1000 Guineas on her next start. Tamfana was also back in third who caught eye-catcher subsequently in the Newmarket 1000 Guineas and then finished third in the Group 1 Prix de Diane.

    As a two-year-old, she nearly beat Vandeek in the Group 1 Prix Morny (on ground that wasn’t preferable) and she also beat His Majesty by four lengths in the Group 2 Prix Robert Papin.

    On her second career start, Beauvatier just got the better of her in a standard conditions race, but that form is better than some people realise and he ended the season by finishing third to Rosallion in the Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere.

    With a fast ground favouring pedigree (her dam, Raven’s Lady, won a firm ground race), the conditions at Ascot will suit and I think she might finally get her day in the sun today.

     

    5:05 Ascot – Soprano @ 16/1 with Boyle Sports (5 places) – 1pt EW

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    In what is my only handicap play of the day, I can see why Soprano has received a bit of market support over the last 24 hours.

    She has a mark of 100 to overcome, but that rating is on the lenient side for a horse of her quality as her form as a two-year-old is the best here.

    She finished a staying-on second from a slightly worse part of the track in last year’s Group 2 Albany Stakes and both Matrika and Porta Fortuna have franked the form subsequently.

    Furthermore, she chased home the very impressive Shuwari and Fallen Angel (Irish 1000 Guineas winner) in the Listed Star Stakes at Sandown before finishing second to Fallen Angel at Newmarket.

    Her form slightly tailed off towards the end of her campaign, but she did have six runs as a juvenile and her worst efforts came at the end of that season.

    As a three-year-old, she blew the cobwebs off at Chelmsford and then put in a good effort at Musselburgh at the start of the month.

    George Boughey has yet to land a winner this week, but she looks like one of his stronger chances of Royal Ascot and her draw in 18 is favourable.

     

    5:40 Ascot – Diego Velazquez @ 4/1 with William Hill (1.5pt Win) & Voyage @ 9/1 with William Hill (1pt EW) (4 places)

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    I’ve taken a slightly safe route into the Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes as both Diego Velazquez and Voyage make plenty of appeal to me.

    Starting with the favourite, although he is a classic Ballydoyle ‘hype horse’, he’s starting to mature nicely and his form is arguably the best here.

    He beat Capulet on his second start who improved to win the Listed Dee Stakes this season (a race that got a form boost yesterday thanks to Jayarebe) and Deepone finished fourth who completed the season with a success in the Group 2 Beresford Stakes.

    There are excuses for his efforts in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes and Group 1 Prix du Jockey Club as the ground was heavy on both occasions and with his pedigree (Frankel half-brother to Broome), one can imagine fast ground suits him better.

    The form of his fourth in the Group 1 French 2000 Guineas looks solid as Dancing Gemini (2nd) finished a good sixth in the Derby and Henry Longfellow (8th) chased home Rosallion in the St James’s Palace Stakes, so his 4/1 price looks more than fair.

    As for Voyage, I think he’s a little bit more unexposed than plenty in here with just that one official run under his belt.

    That came at Newbury where he won comfortably, though he got a nice runout when first past the post in the Epsom Derby having unshipped Pat Dobbs at the start.

    Considering his Manduro half-sister Plein Air and Majahid half-brother Close Your Eyes both won Listed races, his pedigree looks great, and he is by a better sire in Golden Horn.

    Therefore, I want to keep him on my side while also backing Diego Velazquez.

  • Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Four to Follow: Future Champions & Old Friends

    Whilst the entire racing public will focus in on the jumps action at Chepstow, I’m still infatuated with the flat. Some of the top jumps trainers will head to the Rowley Mile this week to contest the Cesarewitch on Saturday, but there’s also top 2-Y-O action along in the Future Champions Festival. We also get to see some old friends sprinting up at York in their final meeting of the season. Here’s this week’s Four To Follow.

    Newmarket

    A Shuwed bet

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    Friday 4:10 – Fillies’ Mile (Group One) – Shuwari @ 2/1 (William Hill)

    With a name like Sangster, a lot is expected of you. And it’s not often a first-year trainer gets a special one straight away. But Shuwari just looks like that. Bred by French Derby winner New Bay, and from a staying family, Shuwari may be one to challenge for the classics. Her run in the Rockfel came with plenty of positives. She stayed on past the line and could have been bang up there with Carla’s Way had she not dwelt the start. Stepping up to a mile won’t be a problem & she’s clearly the one to beat. Favoruites have a strong record in the race, with the last four winners all top of the shop.

    Definitely not wooden

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    Saturday 2:00 – Dewhurst Stakes (Group One) – City Of Troy @ 1/2 (William Hill)

    Sometimes form goes out the window and you go on with what you have seen. And City of Troy was probably the most impressive juvenile winner of the season. He blew the field away on the July course by six-and-a-half lengths and has been kept incredibly fresh for this contest. With plenty of black-type in his pedigree, he can certainly justify odds-on. Only one odds-on shot has been overturned in the last 17 runnings.

     

    Meade for this

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    Saturday 2:40 – Cesarewitch (Heritage H’cap) – Jesse Evans @ 12/1 (Betfred)

    The Cesarewtich is a notoriously tough handicap, but if there’s on trend to follow; back jump trainers. Only three have breached the dominance from the flat world in the last ten years. And whilst everyone is looking to Pied Piper, it’s worth noting that the former flat horse didn’t have much success at this level. Jesse Evans represents better value and has had a fantastic season this Summer. Two wins on the flat, narrowly beaten in the Galway Hurdle and almost landed the Irish version in a tight finish. There’s no doubt he will be up there again.

    Another Meade runner makes appeal further down the market. Sheishybrid finished second in the Cesarewitch Trial two weeks ago and remains on the same mark. She has been on the upgrade in her past few runs, and with three pounds taken off there may be a slight advantage over rival Grand Providence. A wide draw may be a negative, but it shouldn’t make too much difference over two miles and two furlongs. Worth a go at 20/1 (General).

    And it wouldn’t be a Cesarewitch without a Willie Mullins runner. And one at a price is Zenon. She returned off a break of nearly three years to dust the cobwebs off at Bellewstown. Zenon looks to have a preference for softer ground, so conditions may not be ideal. But with 33 rivals around, there’s chance to get a piece of luck somewhere. It’s a big call up for Saffie Osborne, but she’s had a stellar season and can top it off with a big win. 28/1 (William Hill).

     

    York

    No Wobbling about

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    Saturday 2:25 – Sprint Trophy (Heritage H’cap) – Wobwobwob @ 10/1 (Betfred)

    Wobwobwob enjoyed success last time out at Ayr winning the Silver Cup. But I feel that the race was a stepping stone to bigger things. And this looks like the target. His past three runs have all been brilliant, from second on heavy Goodwood ground to two pleasing runs in this company. Adrian Paul Keatley will be following a very positive trend of Northern trained winners of the race. Wobwobwob looks primed and ready.

    In behind, Kevin Ryan saddles four runners. This shows how seriously he takes this race, and I think a couple will be at their best today. Firstly, Bielsa who has had a spread out campaign. But he started the season off with a win over C&D and is only three pounds higher in the weights.  It’s also the mark he won off in his Ayr Gold Cup victory in 2021. He looks more than an each-way shout at 14/1 (Betfred).

    The second Kevin Ryan runner I’m suited by is Magical Spirit. Stable jockey Tom Eaves gets the leg up yet finds himself down in the market. He finished third behind Bielsa after a winning start at Doncaster. Now he’s a pound lower than that winning mark and can display a similar performance to that in May. Take a chance at 33/1 (Betfred).

    The very best of luck!

  • St. Leger Festival | Three To Follow: May Or May Not

    St. Leger Festival | Three To Follow: May Or May Not

    It’s the start of the Festival that celebrates the oldest Classic in the calendar. The St. Leger Festival at Doncaster is always a fantastic meeting, and there are four days of excellent racing action, kicking off with two Group Two’s today in, a short and sweet, Three To Follow.

     

    Leading Into Battle

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    2:55 – Weatherbys Scientific £300,000 2-Y-O Stakes – Dragon Leader @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    Big field two-year-old races are, more often than not, a minefield for punters. But this particular race falls quite nicely in the calendar to have a go at. Most of the winning form comes from York’s two-year-old races, whether that be the Gimcrack, the Harry Beeby or the Nurseries.

    Dragon Leader is thrice unbeaten, including scorching to victory in the Harry Beeby at York last time out. He’s ended up with a surprisingly low weight, which will be beneficial for him to perform on what may be soft ground, since a bit of rain has been forecast in Yorkshire this afternoon. William Buick takes over from Ryan Moore who is Johannes Brahms.

    One who will appreciate juice in the ground is Flaccianello. After the fallout from Kevin Stott and Amo Racing earlier in the week, Cam Hardie gets the nod from Richard Fahey. Hardie has ridden and won on him on debut, and crucially won a nursery on soft ground last time out with plenty in hand and looks the each-way danger at 16/1 (Betfred).

    There’s one at a big price which I really interested me, Grey Cuban for Hugo Palmer. His last run wasn’t his best, but blame the ground for that run as everything happened at quite a pace. His previous two runs came on good-to-soft, and the form from his run at Nottingham has worked out a treat. Five winners have come out of that race, including four on their next start. Danny Tudhope enjoyed a profitable weekend in Ireland, and can pull a shock off here at 40/1 (William Hill).

     

    Darn Far Too Hot

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    3:00 – Betfred May Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Darnation @ 7/4 (William Hill)

    I watched this horse in person when she broke her maiden at Thirsk. She won by ten lengths and I had a feeling that she would take the Group race route. She has the makings of (whisper it quietly) a potential Guineas winner. Her win in the Prestige at Goodwood affirmed my beliefs and now she comes to Doncaster, on ground she will relish. Clifford Lee rode her on her ten-length victory and has the ability to do it again, but with an appreciable step up in trip.

     

    Sumo To Sparkle

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    3:35 – Betfred Park Hill Stakes (Group Two) – Sumo Sam @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    A race for the staying fillies’ over the St. Leger distance may seem appealing, but this year’s renewal looks hard to decipher. I’ve gone for those who have stayed the trip well over 14 furlongs, as that covers most of the distance (excluding the half furlong). Sumo Sam fits the brief, winning over said distance last time out in bottomless ground at Goodwood. The soft ground won’t be problem to her and can showcase her talents with Rossa Ryan in the saddle.

    But Night Sparkle also drew my eye in this open looking race. She’s running for the fiest time under Andrew Balding, and a horse moving to a top stable like his should not go unnoticed. She’s three from three, but is markedly stepping up in grade after winning two class three handicaps on the spin. But she’s won with dig in the ground and isn’t without an each-way shout at 8/1 (Betfred).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    Four To Follow: Curragh Champions

    It’s the turn of the future stars of the track at the Curragh today, as Day Two of the Irish Champions Festival dawns upon us. Two heavyweights of the O’Brien stable tussle each other in the National Stakes, whilst it looks a bit more open in the Moyglare. Here’s a Sunday Special of Four to Follow.

     

    Power Over Princess

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    2:55 – Flying Five Stakes (Group One) – Art Power @ 5/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    For some time on Best Of Bets, Highfield Princess has been the go-to horse for us. The story, the speed, all of it she’s been a revelation of the sprinting world. But she’s been hitting the frame this year, and I’m more interested in winners and that leads me to Art Power. Unbeaten at the Curragh, that course form is significant above the other horses.

    He’s five from five, and has performed at Group One level too, his best performance was finishing third in the 2021 Diamond Jubilee. With all that in mind, and with Highfield Princess just not cutting the mustard in three Group One’s this season, Art Power is the perfect Curragh champion.

     

    Fortuna Favours The Brave

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    3:25 – Moyglare Stud Stakes (Group One) – Porta Fortuna @ 13/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

    Ylang Ylang is all the talk, but looking on her performance in the Silver Flash didn’t look as convincing as it might have seen. She made all but Vespertillo was closing all the time, and without pace in the race Yland Ylang is vulnerable. Porta Fortuna isn’t.

    A Royal Ascot winner, beating Matrika who won the Airlie Stud Stakes next time out, she finished well behind the colt Bucanero Fuerte in the Phoenix Stakes. Stepping up in trip will be beneficial, and with no boys to face she may have an easier task. Frankie Dettori is always an eye-catching booking, and won’t want to leave Ireland empty handed.

     

    Fuerte To Forte

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    4:00 – Vincent O’Brien National Stakes (Group One) – Bucanero Fuerte @ 9/2 (888Sport)

    Who is the only Group One winner in the field? Bucanero Fuerte. Who won by four lengths in a Group One? Bucanero Fuerte. Who is massively overpriced for the race? Bucanero Fuerte. For me he holds all the aces. Even if Aidan O’Brien has two fantastic looking two-year-olds, according to Seamie Heffernan, they’re not. To accentuate my point further, O’Brien hasn’t won this race since Churchill back in 2016. The fact that a Group One winning two-year-old is bigger 3/1 makes no sense to me. It’ll be a fascinating race nonetheless.

     

    King Of The Curragh

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    4:35 – Irish St. Leger (Group One) – Kyprios @ 11/8 (William Hill)

    We’ve missed Kyprios this year in the staying division. His talents last season were incredible, and there seems to be a void needing to be filled this year. Courage Mon Amis never came on from the Ascot Gold Cup, and we’ve had a lack of dominance. But the return for Kyprios heralds a return to normality, and even at 90% he can put his stablemate Emily Dickinson into submission. Aidan O’Brien might have a great crop of two-year-olds, but he has a shining jewel here, and Kyprios is back to defend his Irish St. Leger title the Curragh.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    Four To Follow: Leopardstown Ladies

    As we approach the end of the season (and the start of the jumps!), the stars are all reappearing for one final hurrah! First up is Irish Champions weekend, and we head to Leopardstown for a tasty looking Irish Champion Stakes. There’s also the small matter of the Sprint Cup at Haydock as well. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Leopardstown

    Long Time, No Tah-see

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    2:45 – Coolmore ‘Justify’ Matron Stakes (Group One) – Tahiyra @ Evs (General)

    Tahiyra is an undoubtable talent, but she’s only ran three times this season. Which makes her return to the track all the more tantalising. However, the Matron Stakes has the habit to throw up some real surprises. No favourite has won since Legatissimo in 2015, and has been the only favourite to win in the last 10 years. But Tahiyra is clear on ratings, versatile on ground with a slight bias to firmness, and has every right to be favourite, even after a period off the track.

    To follow her in, Just Beautiful looked as though she could become a talking horse when winning the Lanwades Stud Stakes all the way back in May. But she’s been off the track for some time, and is making a crucial step up to Group One level. Her previous form says she’ll get the ground, and has a couple of decent formlines. Interesting at 9/1 (William Hill)

     

    Not Just The Boys

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    3:20 – Irish Champion Stakes (Group One) – Nashwa @ 11/2 (General)

    This looks, on paper, one of the races of the season. Two three-year-olds who have captured the racing world, plus plenty of Group One experience in the mix as well. But it’s Nashwa I’m drawn to after her performance in the International Stakes. Many people disregarded her, but she finished in between, arguably, the two best horses in the race. She was Only beaten by a length that day, and comes to Leopardstown with conditions on her side, plus John Gosden’s record in the race in recent years puts her in the frame and make the race her own.

    Spare a thought for Luxembourg who seems to be totally disregarded, despite having a good career, three Group One’s including the race last year. He wasn’t up to standard, but you could argue he drops to a preferred trip here. And just because Ryan Moore is on the other horse, doesn’t necessarily means he’s on the right one. Each-way claims at 10/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Too E-Aasy

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    4:30 – Paddy Power Stakes (Group Three) – Al Aasy @ 11/4 (William Hill)

    It beggars belief how Al Aasy is second favourite. His performances, whilst at Listed level, have been eye-catching and he steps up in trip for the first time since his reappearance in the Fred Archer. But he has narrowly been denied at the top level, and it’s that previous Group One experience that may just put him over the line against Adelaide River, who hasn’t won this season, or since his debut. Whilst Adelaide River has disappointed, Al Aasy has made smooth progress and can follow up here at Leopardstown.

     

    Haydock

    Slam Dunk Finish

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    3:35 – Sprint Cup (Group One) – Shaquille @ Evs (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Shaquille has very much picked up the gauntlet as the top sprinter of the season. From one Northern horse (Highfield Princess) to another, Shaquille has impressed with the turn of foot unlike any other sprinter at the top level. He may dwell at the start, but his jet engine propels him to the front to pick of those who are no match for him. And on paper, it looks another open and shut case.

    Or does it? Sacred was incredibly unlucky at Royal Ascot when denied by 80/1 shot Khaadem, and has been out for revenge since. Whilst previous form suggests his best distance is over seven, on quicker ground it’s much better over six. It was evident when disappointing in the City of York Stakes last time out, and the quick turnaround plus drop in trip may give him a chance to spoil Shaq’s shindig. Next best in the field at 17/2 (William Hill)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    Four To Follow: Normal Service Resumes

    After a fantastic Ebor week, we’re back to normal Saturday racing. But there is some fantastic betting heats, including the Beverley Bullet and the tricky Atalanta Stakes. Plus there’s a decent looking two-year-old race at Sandown too. Here’s this week’s four to follow.

     

    Sandown

    Aheredia of the game

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    2:25 – Atalanta Stakes (Group Three) – Heredia @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    The Atalanta Stake is often a hard race to decipher. There have been three double-priced winners in the last four runnings. Another stat of the race is that only one five-year-old has won this race in its history (Lady Bear in 2003). There has, also, never been a dual winner of the race.

    This draws me to Heredia, who is making the step up to Group Three level for the first time in a year. She’s been very consistent, with two seconds and a convincing win last time out. Her ability to go on all kinds of ground shows that it won’t be a problem, but an outside draw may cause a small issue. But held up off the pace, she could make a late burst up the hill late on.

     

    Written in the stars?

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    3:38 – Solario Stakes (Group Three) – Starlore @ 2/1 (General)

    Breeding suggests that Starlore will win this race, as his sire Kingman did back in 2013. And plenty of favourites have won this and gone on to better things. Masar and Too Darn Hot are probably the most notable out of the last ten years, as well as Kingman.

    But Starlore may possess star quality. It might not have been a convincing debut when idling at the finish to hold on by a nose, but the form from that race has worked out, Arabian Crown in particular stands out. With a small field, and the best jockey on board (Ryan Moore), he seems a little overprices at 2/1.

    And talking of Starlore’s debut, Devil’s Point also franked the form when winning next time out at Ffos Las in convincing fashion. On debut, he only finished within one-and-a-half lengths of the winner and might not be far behind here at 11/2 (888Sport, BetVictor, BetUK)

     

    Beverley

    A rocket for the Bullet

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    2:40 – William Hill Beverley Bullet (Listed) – Apollo One @ 100/30 (William Hill, Betfred)

    Apollo One has had a quiet, yet consistent season. Four runs and four places, that isn’t bad form considering they were all in Class 2/Heritage Handicaps. But ground versatile, and with an ideal draw in stall two there may be nothing to stop this rocket finally grabbing a much needed win.

    But spare a thought for Tis Marvellous, the dual winner of the famous race. It could be the swansong for the legend of the Westwood and what a way it would be to bow out. He’s won from stall six before, and he may have the upper hand in what looks a tactical race. 7/1 (888Sport, BetVictor, Boylesports)

     

    Chester

    Flying to the front

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    3:20 – Chester Stakes (Listed) – Lone Eagle @ 100/30 (General)

    Lone Eagle’s best performance this season came over this C&D back in May. He finished behind Hamish, and hasn’t looked anything like that day in May since. It may be because he caught the Group One bug, disappointing in both the Ascot Gold Cup and Goodwood Cup.

    He’s tumbled down to Listed level, which should be his bread and butter, and Ralph Beckett will want to keep his winning streak in the race going landing the last two editions on the Roodee.

    Military Order hasn’t raced since the Derby, but a hike up in distance around a tricky track like Chester doesn’t fill me with confidence. And finishing last in the Derby speaks volumes that he didn’t like the track, and Chester is often a good trial to deal with the bends.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Three

    Yesterday was a hard day for all punters. We saw rain, rain and more rain down in Sussex and saw some juicy prices with Magical Sunset and The Goat coming in at 18/1 and 25/1 respectively (Good work Neil).

    But we saw Paddington keep racking up the winnings with a dominant display in the Sussex Stakes. Here’s today’s Four To Follow, keep in mind the ground remains a big factor.

     

    Goodwood

    HALA HALA HALA

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    2:25 – Richmond Stakes (Group Two) – Hala Emaraaty @ 12/1 (General)

    We’ve seen plenty of non-runners in this race already, which looks like that ground down at Goodwood is boggy. But Hala Emaraaty has a lot going for him.

    He may have got beaten by Big Evs at Ascot, but he did beat him at Redcar. So, the form has worked out, but has soft ground in his favour after winning his debut on soft ground.

    Plus Tom Marquand has had a pretty good time down in Sussex, winning on Quickthorn and three near-misses yesterday.

     

    SPYING A WINNER

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    3:00 – Gordon Stakes (Group Three) – Espionage @ 13/8 (Boylesports)

    Espionage is prefect for this race. His four races has come on ground worse than good-to-yielding, and has been consistently in the top two each time.

    His only run as a three-year-old came when winning the Lenebane Stakes at Roscommon. The form hasn’t worked out from that race, but if any horse can rise above form it’s Aidan O’Brien’s. He’s clear on ratings and has plenty of quality to show on the big stage.

     

    FRENCH TO FLOWER

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    3:35 – NASSAU STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Blue Rose Cen @ 5/6 (888Sport, Boylesports)

    Blue Rose Cen is probably one of the best fillies around. Her dominant display in both the French 1000 Guineas and Oaks were dominant and impressive, and it was only a matter of time before she crossed the Channel. Soft ground is her forte, after her win in the Prix la Grotte in April.

    She has a tough opponent in Nashwa, with her dominant display on racecourse return at the July Festival and is more than worthy to defend her Nassau crown. But I feel that Blue Rose Cen’s experience on the softer ground will prove beneficial.

     

    Galway

    SEASIDE DREAMS

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    5:05 – Galway Hurdle (Grade Three) – Filey Bay @ 6/1 (William Hill, 888Sport)

    I’m currently writing this article whilst in Filey. It makes perfect sense. It also makes sense because Filey Bay has been ultra-consistent in handicap hurdles, not finishing outside the top three in all starts last season.

    He was snapped up by JP McManus and finished second in the Betfair Hurdle and third at the Cheltenham Festival. He was disappointing at Roscommon over the flat, but that was a race just to freshen him up for this big test.

    I’ve no doubt that the whole town will be tuning in to watch Filey Bay win at Galway and cheering him on like me.

    But sometimes, you have to look to an old reliable. Two-time Galway Hurdle winner Tudor City is off the same mark that he was last year.

    Liam McKenna is still claiming and claims five instead of seven. Conditions are similar to last year’s race, and he could win it for an unprecedented third time.

    Plus, A J Martin knows how to win the race, not just with Tudor City. He and Willie Mullins have racked up eight of the last ten runnings of the race, so it would be wise to have one, or both in your betslip. 16/1 (General) is a great price for the former winner.

    There’s also a chance for Icare Allen to upset at a big price. He wears the third colours of JP McManus, but that doesn’t mean he is the outsider overall.

    He’s at a career low mark and has a five-pound claimer on board too. He’s likely to be held up at the rear of the field, and steadily make his way to the front. But the tough hill of Galway might repel him from the finish and end up getting placed.

    However, he’s worth backing for the Mullins factor alone at 33/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Glorious Goodwood & Galway – Day Two

    Yesterday at Goodwood we saw the return of King Kinross, but also some near misses (Oh Iberian, you’ll win next time).

    But it’s a new day today and get those marmalade sandwiches at the ready as Paddington returns to the track. And can that horse Hewick win the Galway Plate again? Find out in today’s Four to Follow.

     

    Goodwood

    FAST BETWEEN THE DROPS

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    2:25 – Whispering Angel Oak Tree Stakes (Group Three) – Fast Response @ 5/1 (General)

    Firstly, the weather will be key to all bets at Goodwood tomorrow. Heavy rain is expected throughout the night and throughout the late morning/early afternoon, so the ground will be like a bog.

    Trawling through the card I saw only four horses in this field act on heavy ground, and Fast Response is well suited to handle the heavy stuff.

    This is a step up for her, as she’s never performed above Listed level. But given there are select horses that can act on the ground, she can make the step up in grade.

    It’s worth looking down the market too, big prices will feature (as they did yesterday). The French raider Sicilian Defence makes a bit of appeal, as she has performed and won on heavy ground.

    According to comments, her results have to be looked into as bare form can be misleading. Draw 15 isn’t a great draw, but according to the trainer it shouldn’t matter as she is a hold up horse, but she will need to be midfield, rather than at the rear for this kind of race.

    Watch out for her at 22/1 (General).

     

    HACKING THROUGH THE TURF

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    3:00 – Molecomb Stakes (Group Three) – Hackman @ 22/1 (William Hill, Unibet)

    Hackman is a big price. But he is the only horse in the field to have acted, and won, on heavy ground. All the other horses haven’t acted on it, and breeding lines suggest that these two-year-olds are bred to sprint which would mean they’d prefer good-to-firm ground.

    Stall six on the straight course will be beneficial, with many winners on Day One coming down the stand-side rail. Trainer Hugo Palmer has said that the more rain, the better for this son of Mehmas.

    Tom Marquand delivered a peach of a ride on Quickthorn in the feature at Goodwood yesterday, and can do the same here

    PADDINGTON ON A PADDLE

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    3:35 – SUSSEX STAKES (GROUP ONE) – Paddington @ 4/9 (General)

    Paddington has won on heavy ground, is a treble Group One winner. He’s stepping down in distance. Paddington is the best rated horse. Anything else?

    It would be worth going on the without market or forecasts because the equation is quite simple. And despite under a penalty Aldaary stands out from the small field.

    Soft ground specialist, including a winner on heavy ground. She has a slight advantage with an inside draw, but it doesn’t make a difference in a small field.

    Jim Crowley will want to seek a win after his ridiculous 20-day ban, and Aldaary is 14/1 (William Hill) outright.

     

    Galway

    FUN AND GAMES

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    6:40 – Galway Plate (Grade Three) – Hollow Games @ 17/2 (BetVictor)

    Hollow Games has looked inevitable to go into handicap chasing. And this looks like a real chance for the Gordon Elliott and Bective Stud chaser.

    He looks well-handicapped, rated at 142, and has a young jockey aboard that I really like, Sam Ewing. He comes in fresh, looks unexposed and the step up in trip might be beneficial on the evidence of his debut handicap run at the Punchestown Festival.

    But it’s never that simple in a big handicap chase, there might be some others in behind to take the big Summer jumps prize.

    One of them could be Fury Road, who I backed in the Ryanair way back in March. He didn’t run to form that day, or after, but is down to an attractive mark of 155.

    A winning mark back in November at Down Royal in graded company as well. He likes soft ground and 2m 6F shouldn’t be a problem, and Jack Kennedy is back in the saddle!

    12/1 (William Hill) for a big race winner on a jockey’s big race return.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: July Festival – Day One

     

    After a brief break, Four To Follow is back, with three days of fantastic racing to be had at Newmarket’s beautiful July course.

    Day One sees the favourites holding all the aces.

     

    Answer a Prayer

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    13:50 – Bahrain Trophy (Group Three) – Saint George @ 11/4 (Unibet)

    Over at the ‘The Top Three’, Ash has stuck with the favourite.

    However, this is the first race that really will test the form. And with Gregory been given an entry in the Goodwood Cup, it seems that the top six may become group horses out of it. It looks positive.

    We know that he gets his staying power out of his dam’s side, and Roaring Lion has had a 13% strike rate of progeny winners this season.

    Tower Of London, faces a steep rise in rating, whilst we know that Saint George can perform at this level, and that’s why he’s my pick.

     

    Summer Breeze

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    14:25 – July Stakes (Group Two) – Purosangue @ 9/4 (Unibet)

    I first came across this Andrew Balding colt when having a peruse one evening, and found out that I knew this horses mother.

    Avon Breeze ran for the Whitaker stable, who my family still own horses with, and was a fantastic edition to the stable.

    She wasn’t a filly that performed at the top level, but she did win a class two handicap at Ripon in 2016. Her daughter Liberty Breeze also runs for the Whitaker’s, and is having a good season so far.

    I watched Purosangue’s debut and thought that he was a smart horse, and won with plenty in hand. This horse seems to be heading in the right direction, and can prove his class for the Balding team.

     

    Height Of July

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    15:00 – bet365 Heritage H’cap – Washington Heights @ 5/1 (General)

    Sooner or later, this horse has to win a race. He’s got closer to the winning line with each run, being denied by a head on his last run at York.

    He finished second to the now-Group One winner Shaquille at the start of the season, and downed twice by Quinault.

    Firm ground seems to be his preference, which puts me in a difficult position. We won’t’ know how the ground is performing until the first race, because the Newmarket grounds-team are irrigating tonight.

    The ground is officially good to firm at time of writing, but whether it’ll stay that way is an unknown.

    But a big plus for this horse is the booking of Ryan Moore, who has to be the best jockey in the world. I don’t think I’ve ever seen a jockey with a 41% strike rate.

    Eminency is the each-way appeal in the race for me.

    She finished fourth in the same York sprint handicap as Washington Heights, and has only been raised a pound. Once again, ground will be a concern if it’s not firmer ground, but as explained in the first selection, we’re playing the waiting game.

    Cheeckpieces are on for the first time, which I always see as a positive, and John Fahy and Clive Cox are both just starting to turn the formbook heading into July. Nice bet at 10/1 (General)

     

    One for the Acca

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    15:40 – Princess of Wales’s Stakes (Group Two) – Adayar @ 1/2 (Boylesports, 10Bet)

    It’s a simple equation really. One is rated nine pounds better than the next best, dropping a grade below, and only has four runners to contend with.

    Israr is the clear threat, but Israr hasn’t performed at Group Two level, let alone win. In fact he hasn’t won a class one race yet, which puts Adayar in the driving seat.

    Adayar is definitely one for the multiples, and a banker on day one of the July meeting.

    The very best of luck!