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Tag: royal ascot 2023

  • Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 5 – The Top Three

    Yes, you would be correct in thinking about what is currently on your mind. ‘What state was Ash in when the Palace Of Hollyroodhouse Stakes finished?’ Well, after a day of four selections, one place and no winners, it was safe to say I wasn’t the happiest.

    But then again, you dust yourself off, pick yourself up, and roll into Royal Ascot Day 5.

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    Has this week been tough for people having a bet? Yes. Did I expect good success after Triple Time won the Queen Anne in what seems like a race that took place six months ago? Yes. But these things happen and this series hadn’t accumulated an ROI of 80% pre-Ascot for no reason.

    To keep you in touch with recent results, after Tuesday, the P&L was at +27.75 at an ROI of 73%. Now, after Friday, we are +12.85 at an ROI of 24%. That is tough reading, but we have three fancies to hang our hopes on, so let’s get started.

     

    Queen Elizabeth II Jubilee Stakes – Wellington @ 11/2 with William Hill – 2pt EW

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    Hong Kong is yet to have a runner at this year’s Royal Ascot, but today, WELLINGTON is holding their hopes and dreams.

    Trained by Richard Gibson, the six-year-old by All Too Hard is one of the world’s best sprinters, that is a fact, and he has been bumping heads with Lucky Sweynesse on multiple occasions over the last year, a horse who is the number one sprinter in the world.

    Wellington actually beat his fierce rival at Sha Tin in the Premier Bowl handicap last October when giving nine pounds away.

    Everything circulating on Twitter and social media suggests he has travelled over well and at 11/2, that is an incredible each-way price with William Hill, and I can’t wait to see this Hong Kong star at the legendary Ascot.

     

    Wokingham Stakes – Orazio @ 6/1 with William Hill – 3pt WIN

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    This horse. This is the one I can’t desert. All the chat about NAP of the week comes down to this.

    Any regular readers or viewers of the Only Fools Love Horses Podcast will know that ORAZIO for Charlie Hills has been my bet of Royal Ascot for a few weeks.

    This colt by Caravaggio bolted up over course and distance last time out following a decent win at Newmarket the month prior.

    Further before that, he missed all of 2022 and some of 2021 due to what seems like a setback and for a ÂŁ215,000 purchase as a yearling, that would have been annoying, so to have him firing on all cylinders is promising to see.

    Off 102, I think the mark is still fair and if he is a Group horse in the making then a win today in the Wokingham, a difficult handicap at the best of times, should hopefully happen.

    The only thing that is a worry is the form of the yard at four winners from 33 runners, the reason why this is a win-only bet as he could either go very close or not fire at all.

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    I have hopes that we can see a nice performance tomorrow from stall 29, so good luck to William Buick and his connections.

     

    Golden Gates Handicap – Knockbrex @ 7/2 with BoyleSports – 3pt WIN

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    Although Orazio is one of my best bets of the week, KNOCKBREX has become a close second to my strength in the bet.

    His York performance thoroughly impressed me despite not winning as he made all under Andrea Ateni and forced his competitors off the bridle before being passed late on when victim to doing too much too soon.

    The form of that race has worked out nicely as well because the winner, Chesspiece, ran a good race behind Gregory in the Queen’s Vase and the second, Land Legend, was a big eyecatcher from the King George V Handicap.

    Speaking of Gregory, Charlie Johnston’s colt by Ulysses got to within two lengths of the highly-impressive John & Thady Gosden-trained horse at Haydock, a race that saw him pass horses rather than make all which shows the versatility of his running style.

    And even a look at his pedigree excites me as he is out of a Pivotal mare (an angle I love) with the dam a half-sister to the two-time Listed winner Answered and a full sister to Peripatetic, a recent winner of the Listed Tapster Stakes at Goodwood two weeks ago.

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    The cross of Ulysess out of a Pivotal mare is actually one that has produced the useful Holloway Boy, Gwan So, and Relentless Voyager in recent years, so off a mark of 90, I like the chances of Knockbrex in the Golden Gates Handicap.

  • Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 4 – The Top Three

    We are over the hump and on the downhill run to the end of this glorious meeting as it’s Royal Ascot Day 4.

    For the first two selections yesterday, COLTRANE was a tough pill to swallow in the Gold Cup and BLESS drifted across the track which didn’t aid her chances. TOIMY SON missed the break in the last race and despite staying on at the line, David Menuisier’s charge couldn’t regain the distance.

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    Anyway, it was a tough day, but hopefully, we can have some more success today.

     

    Albany Stakes – Soprano @ 13/2 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    The opening race of the day is the Albany Stakes for two-year-old fillies over six furlongs, a race that is always competitive, but it’s SOPRANO that gets my vote of confidence.

    George Boughey hasn’t had the best of weeks at Ascot so far, but this Starspangledbanner filly by Lealas Daughter, a half-sister to three-time Grade 1-winning Obviously, gives him his best hope of a winner.

    Having been bought at the Tattersalls Yearling Sales in October for 100,000GNS, he made his Newmarket debut a winning one over five furlongs, a race he was hurried along in from two furlongs out.

    However, the turn of foot he showed once he got going was impressive and with his 49-day break from the track, it seems connections have had this race over six furlongs in mind for a while.

    In what isn’t a vintage crop for the Albany, Soprano could be the best of the lot.

     

    Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes – Aimeric @ 10/1 with BoyleSports – 1pt EW

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    Roger Varian has yet to have a winner at Royal Ascot 2023, however, day four is where I’m hoping that changes as AIMERIC will be carrying my money (the instant curse) at 10/1 with William Hill.

    This Frankel half-brother to none other than Aclaim, the 2017 Prix de la Foret winner turned sire standing at Manton Park, has raced seven times on the track, winning on three occasions.

    The most recent victory came 21 days ago at Doncaster, his first run after a wind and gelding operation.

    That return to form was promising to see as he once beat El Habeeb in a maiden at Chester over 1m4f, a horse who is now rated 110 and ran an eyecatching race behind Coltrane in the Sagaro Stakes at Ascot last month.

    The handicapper only brandished him with a four-pound rise in the weights for his run last time out and if he can continue to improve on his second run after a wind-op (the age-old cliché), then off a mark of 96, this four-year-old is an interesting way into the Duke Of Edinburgh Stakes.

     

    Sandringham Stakes – Jackie Oh @ 9/2 with BetVictor – 2pt WIN

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    An angle into handicaps I always like to follow is the class horse at the top of the weights.

    In this year’s race, JACKIE OH is the one that can hopefully continue Aidan O’Brien’s incredible form this week.

    Having been supplemented into the Irish Guineas for €50,000, she ran a great race behind Tahiyra and Meditate last time out despite the massive hike in class from a Listed event to Group 1 company.

    She seemed to enjoy the better ground last time out and by Galileo out of Jacqueline Quest, a 1000 Guineas runner-up, she has good relations to Line Of Duty (Breeders’ Cup Turf Juvenile winner), Secret State (110-rated Godolphin four-year-old) and Onassis (two-time Listed winner for Charlie Fellowes).

    Hopefully, she will be able to defy her mark of 102 and can continue O’Brien’s streak of Royal Ascot success.

     

    Palace of Holyroodhouse Stakes – Rocket Rodney @ 22/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    And finally, this series is called ‘The Top Three’, but with the difficulty of splitting these four selections, I’m including them all on the P&L.

    In the finale over five furlongs, ROCKET RODNEY looks wildly overpriced at 22/1 with William Hill.

    Keeping this short and sweet, he looked brilliant in the preliminaries before last year’s Windsor Castle and gave Little Big Bear a great race WHEN beaten by a neck; that form is worth its weight in gold and could receive another boost if O’Brien’s stable star obliges in the Commonwealth Cup.

    He also beat Eddie’s Boy three times last season, a subsequent Group 3 winner, and even put four lengths between himself and Rumstar, another subsequent Group 3 winner, in the Listed Dragon Stakes at Sandown in July.

    If you can ignore his last run of the season on ground that didn’t suit and his seasonal reappearance when he needed the run, returning to a favourable course and distance should benefit his chances and the handicapper has dropped him six pounds in two runs.

    Off 99, with all of that Group-level form, George Scott’s Dandy Man colt is a great each-way chance in the last.

     

    Other fancies for the day (not including on P&L):

    • Little Big Bear 11/10 & Shaquille 9/1 (3:05)
    • Arrest 7/2 (5:35)
  • Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    Royal Ascot Day Three: Selections and Naps

    What a difference a day makes! Royal Ascot Day Two saw Mostahdaf light up the turf and beat the NAP Luxembourg, but not after giving him a mention. And the E/W Bet, Rogue Millennium stepped down in trip and delivered in the Duke of Cambridge. Thursday is Gold Cup Day, but the card isn’t overly attractive. But I’ve managed to dig through to hopefully find some winners on Day Three.

    Scroll down for Selections on all seven races, live on ITV Racing and Sky Sports Racing.

    ELDAR TO GRAB THE GOLD

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    NAP: Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Named after the famous MMA fighter, Eldar Eldarov has done nothing but impress. Last season he delivered an eye-catching run at the Royal meeting, in the Queen’s Vase which set him up for the St Leger. This season, he’s started rather well. A narrow second at York on firm ground was good prep for this marathon contest. He’s the highest rated horse, which is no surprise. The Gold Cup doesn’t look as sexy as we have had in previous years, and it’s Eldar’s for the taking.

    Keep an eye on Subjectivist, the 2021 winner. He ran a good prep race in the Dubai Gold Cup, which had been his previous prep for the 2021 edition. He’s back from a break of two years, shaped well over in Dubai and can improve from that today. Double figure price at 10/1 (10Bet, BetUK)

    ROYAL RARE-BET

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    E/W BET: Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – Caernarfon @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    I can’t wrap my head around how a top-rated horse, who finished third in the Epsom Oaks, is a double-figure price. She seems so versatile on all sorts of ground with wins on Good, soft, and placed on firm. She drops down two classes from Group One to Group Three, which might be more her level and a slight step back in trip won’t trouble her much. Jack Channon deserves something for training this horse, and hopefully he can get her over the line today.

    DAVID VS ASCOT

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    Handicap Best: King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Davideo @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK)

    The handicaps today aren’t the best quality fields and I can’t seem to see any horse screaming out at me to make a case. Apart from Davideo. Surprisingly, recent winners haven’t come from the famous London Gold Cup, and tend to be found coming out of maidens. He has form finishing behind Mostabshir at Kempton, but hosed up at Newmarket on reappearance this season. He’s been given a fair mark of 92 and wide draw on the round course isn’t necessarily a bad thing

    Land Legend just caught my eye in this race. Chesspiece didn’t’ win his race yesterday and didn’t back up the form, but after turning to turf his form looks to have improved. A win and a second isn’t to be sniffed at, and a two-pound rise is lenient and puts him at a decent mark for the race. Each-way claims at 16/1 (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    Selections:

    14:30 – Norfolk Stakes (Group Two) – Elite Status @ 11/8 (General)

    15:05 – King George V Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – DAVIDEO @ 8/1 (William Hill, BetUK), Land Legend @ 16/1 e/w (Unibet, Betfred, William Hill, BetUK)

    15:40 – Ribblesdale Stakes (Group Two) – Al Asifah @ 8/13 (Betfred, BetUK)

    16:20 – Gold Cup (GROUP ONE) – ELDAR ELDAROV (NAP) @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    17:00 – Britannia Stakes (Heritage H’cap) – Fort Vega @ 16/1 (General), Ramazan @ 25/1 (General) – Both e/w

    17:35 – Hampton Court Stakes (Group Three) – CAERNARFON @ 12/1 (10Bet, William Hill)

    18:10 – Buckingham Palace H’cap – Northern Express @ 16/1 (General)

    Best of Luck!

  • Royal Ascot Day 3 Picks – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 3 Picks – The Top Three

    Without trying to sound too much like Racing Twitter, today was tough, very tough.

    The day started well with a nice place at 9/1 with TARRABB in the Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap, but a disappointing effort from QUEEN AMINATU in the Duke Of Cambridge Stakes and PEROTTO’s lack of importance in the Royal Hunt Cup ended the day on a negative note.

    That gives us a P&L of -2.2 points from day two, annoying, but not outright horrendous.

    Stick around though as day three includes one of my top three bets of the week, a 66/1 shot, and a 25/1 play in the competitive Britannia Stakes.

     

    Gold Cup (4:20) – Coltrane @ 7/2 with William Hill – 2pt WIN

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    As much as the Gold Cup can be a tough contest to work out, this year, in my mind, didn’t take too long to work out.

    While it may not be groundbreaking news to you all, COLTRANE is a very good horse and deserves his big day in the sun.

    That being said, deserving a race doesn’t mean you have to back the horse, but in this case, he looks like the obvious bet.

    On last season’s form alone, his fourth in the Goodwood Cup behind Kyprios, Stradivarius, and Trueshan would be good enough to win this race before you even begin to consider the idea that he has progressed in the 11 months since.

    Although plenty of others in here are also improving types – Eldar Eldarov, Emily Dickinson, Courage Mon Ami – Andrew Balding’s six-year-old is no different and in a year that is lacking big guns, he could be the one to take up the mantle.

    The 7/2 with William Hill looks like a very fair price in a field that he can hopefully get the better of.

     

    Britannia Stakes (5:00) – Bless @ 22/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    No French runner has ever won the Britannia Stakes, though that hasn’t stopped me from backing their sole representative in the shape of BLESS at 22/1 with BetVictor.

    Firstly, I will preface this selection with the fact that three-year-old handicaps at this stage of the season are always a nightmare, let alone on the straight course at Ascot with a potential draw bias to deal with.

    However, with jockey Stephane Pasquier flying over to take the ride, this Toronado colt can go close off a mark of 93.

    Looking through his French form, he nearly beat Marhaba Ya Sanafi, a future French 2000 Guineas winner and French Derby third, three starts ago at Chantilly off level weights.

    Furthermore, a look into his second-last run at Longchamp reveals he only finished a head behind Mario Baratti’s Angers, a Seabhac colt who would go on to bolt up by six lengths on his next start in the Group 2 German 2000 Guineas.

    Even his two-year-old maiden victory at Chantilly in November 2022 has seen the form franked thanks to Duc De Kent, who would go on to win two races after that and finish second in a Listed event on his latest start.

    That is some very solid form behind Bless’ chances, and despite his last three races occurring on softer conditions, his pedigree (by Toronado with Le Havre as the damsire) would suggest there is improvement to come on better ground.

    Whether the ground is too rattling quick for his liking or the draw bias is still favouring high draws tomorrow is the danger, but that is accounted into his odds of 22/1 and I’m very intrigued to see how Fabrice Chappet’s three-year-old can perform in the Britannia Stakes.

     

     

    Buckingham Palace Stakes (6:10) – Toimy Son @ 66/1 with William Hill – 0.5pts EW

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    Regular readers of The Top Three column will recognise that I put up TOIMY SON for the Victoria Cup at massive odds last month.

    My case for her last time out revolved around her returning to seven furlongs on soft ground with Cristian Demuro booked to do the steering off a mark of 102.

    Unfortunately, she never really got into the race from the centre of the track.

    However, and rightly so, the handicapper dropped her three pounds for the disappointing effort and with Oisin Murphy back on board, she is one I’m hopeful for at a bit of a price.

    My one worry is the ground. Her pedigree and previous form suggest that softer conditions suit her better, however, there have been murmurs that the David Menuisier team wanted to try her on quicker ground and with the first-time blinkers applied, at 66/1, I will take the chance at her returning to form.

  • Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 2 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 2 is upon us and we will get straight into the selections after looking at yesterday’s results.

    Although the Twitter fancies were good, we made a small loss of 0.9 points yesterday after CALLING THE WIND was placed in the Ascot Stakes to add to the losses of INDESTRUCTIBLE and BOBSLEIGH. That has us on a P&L of 27.75 points profit from 38 points stakes.

    Looking to find pick up tomorrow, let’s get started.

    Duke Of Cambridge Stakes – Queen Aminatu @ 10/1 with Boylesport – 1pt EW

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    Finally, QUEEN AMINATU is going to run.

    Despite being entered a few times after her promising third to Sacred in the Group 3 Chartwell Fillies’ Stakes last time out, connections are now unleashing her at the Berkshire track.

    This filly by Muhaarar has been on my agenda for a while, but the run at Lingfield in May confirmed to me why I liked her so much as she showed great determination and stamina to stay on behind an on-song Sacred, who on her day, can compete in Group 1-level races.

    Although her record on the turf reads 0-6, three of her last five races were successful outings and she will be race fit for tomorrow having raced three races already this year.

    William Haggas’ four-year-old looks like she can step up to the higher levels against the mares and at 10/1 for the Duke Of Cambridge, let’s hope tomorrow is the day.

    Kensington Palace Fillies’ Handicap – Tarrabb @ 9/1 with Boylesport – 1pt EW

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    If I fancy Queen Aminatu, which is a Group 3 contest, then on collateral form, I am also backing TARRABB in the race directly before at 9/1 with Boylesport.

    This Exceed And Excel filly got the better of my previous fancy in a handicap at Haydock when giving away two pounds and has gone on to run well in two handicaps since.

    Fast forward to this season, Owen Burrows’ four-year-old ran a good race on reappearance at Chelmsford under tomorrow’s jockey, William Buick, and that run should mean she’ll be ready for a tilt at Royal Ascot.

    For a Godolphin-bred filly who only made her debut as a three-year-old, like her sire, Exceed And Excel, and damsire, Pivotal, hopefully, she can continue to get better with age and I will be backing her off a mark of 91.

    Royal Hunt Cup – Perotto @ 7/1 with William Hill – 2pts WIN

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    There is no messing around with this fancy; he either wins or he bombs out.

    I put PEROTTO up earlier in the week on my Ante-post Analysis piece, which went live on Friday, and his price has stayed the same at a general 7/1 with William Hill.

    Having won the Britannia Stakes in 2021 off a three-pound higher mark, a small leap of faith is required to hope that Roger Varian’s five-year-old is back to his best, but efforts behind Triple Time last September, a now Group 1 Queen Anne winner, and Chindit last July, a Group 1 Lockinge Stakes runner-up, showed encouragement towards one big run.

    Back on better ground and using his falling handicap mark to his advantage, his claims are obvious for the Royal Hunt Cup, as explained in the Ante-post Analysis piece, and he should run a good race.

  • Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips – The Top Three

    Royal Ascot Day 1 Tips – The Top Three

    Five days. 35 races. Five articles.

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    Royal Ascot 2023 is upon us and despite my sheer excitement for the first flag fall, the nerves for my daily articles are in the back of my mind.

    Over the last five weeks, from 32 points stakes, 28.65 points of profit have been achieved at a return of investment of just under 90%.

    That is a lovely feeling, but the Royal meeting is the true acid test and I’m taking it in my stride, approaching the challenge head-on.

    So, let’s dive into Tuesday’s The Top Three article on Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    Coventry Stakes (3:05) – Bobsleigh @ 20/1 with William Hill – 0.5pts EW

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    I feel almost like an uninvited guest to an ultra-exclusive party by talking about a horse that isn’t Asadna or River Tiber in the Coventry Stakes.

    The story of the week on Racing Twitter has been the debate surrounding these two horses involving some of the biggest profiles on the app and of course, a few people took liberties in creating some funny tweets.

    But steering away from this and the top two in the market, I believe BOBSLEIGH at 20/1 with William Hill offers up a little bit of value.

    Like River Tiber and Givemethebeatboys, the two-year-old by Elzaam is unbeaten in two runs and already has the experience of performing on the biggest stage, winning the opening contest on Epsom Oaks day.

    Although Haatem’s misfortune at the starting stalls benefited him, Richard Hannon’s thrice-raced colt headed for home first over Bobsleigh yet found himself comfortably passed in the final furlongs.

    Jockey Charlie Bishop was always confident on his mount despite being six lengths off the pace at the three-furlong pole and I think that a first start on an arrow-straight track could see him continue to progress as at both Epsom and Brighton, he showed inexperience around a bend.

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    There are bigger talking horses in the race who could have a bigger potential, but as for right here, right now, Eve Johnson Houghton’s runner could be one to cause a small upset in the first two-year-old race of the meeting.

     

    St James’s Palace Stakes (4:20) – Indestructible @ 50/1 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    If you thought 20/1 was big about Bobsleigh, the 50/1 about Indestructible in the feature race of the day is massive in my eyes.

    When you consider that, Kevin Stott, his rider, admitted that “nothing really went his way in the 2000 Guineas as he was bumped out of the stalls, got in behind horses, and he didn’t love the ground” in his latest William Hill blog, I think forgiving his last run is acceptable.

    Then just a small look back to his win in the Craven Stakes victory shows that both The Foxes and Mostabshir won on their next start with the latter now a general 9/1 shot for the same race.

    Although Chaldean beat him twice as a two-year-old, soft ground contributed to his second loss and the other saw them separated by just half a length, so the price difference is too big.

    In that same article quoted above, Stott went on to say: “I think Indestructible has got a massive race in him at Ascot – I wouldn’t be surprised if he gets very close.”

    Bold words for a 50/1 shot and it’s something I can’t get enough of on Royal Ascot Day 1.

     

    Ascot Stakes (5:00) – Calling The Wind @ 12/1 with Boylesport – 1.5pt EW

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    My final fancy of the three on Royal Ascot Day 1 comes in the big handicap of the day.

    Without recycling words from Friday’s Ante-post Analysis piece, CALLING THE WIND provides a good betting angle in the Ascot Stakes Handicap.

    The one piece of information that I didn’t have on Friday is the draw from this Authorized gelding and out of stall 13, there should be no worries about him getting a fair trip through the 2m4f contest.

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    Once rated 105, Richard Hughes’ seven-year-old runs off 99 on Tuesday and with Billy Loughnane’s claim on his side as well, that’s a mark of 96, six pounds below his second in the valuable November Handicap at Doncaster in November 2021.

    Back at a fairer track of Ascot and on better ground, the chance of Calling The Wind is obvious with his falling handicap mark and having been as big as 25/1 ante-post, it seems the market also agrees.