Best Of Bets

Tag: Newbury

  • Four To Follow – Cheltenham Trials: Week Three

    Four To Follow – Cheltenham Trials: Week Three

    More Cheltenham trialling action to come this Saturday at both Newbury and Warwick, with the feature William Hill Hurdle taking centre stage, as well as the Denman and Game Spirit Chases. Plus, Mares action at Warwick featuring a Willie Mullins entrant. Tips are found below.

    Newbury

    Not So Brave

    2:25 – William Hill Denman Chase (Grade Two) – Djelo @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    This race is competitive but shouldn’t throw up any Gold Cup contenders so let’s appreciate the race in its own right today. Bravemansgame has not looked himself at all this season and I’m not a fan at all. Hitman, whilst second in this race, appreciates less trip. Eldorado Allen and Sam Brown are both handicappers and Le Patron should not be involved in a race like this.

    That leaves us with Djelo and Ga Law. Djelo was floored by Protektorat in the Fleur De Lys and Windsor but still finished 21 lengths ahead of the third placed horse. The trip will be ideal on a flat surface and already took at Grade Two out this season with the Peterborough Chase. This rates an ideal opportunity in a weak-ish field.

    Ga Law should get his ground today, after he was pulled out of the Cleeve Hurdle on Cheltenham trials day. On what is home turf for Jamie Snowden, this race will have been in the back of his mind and if he places in this field, it shouldn’t do too much harm for his mark for a run in the Festival Plate, if he’s sent there. Nice price at 8/1 (William Hill).

    Libberty Bell

    3:00 – William Hill Game Spirit Chase (Grade Two) – Libberty Hunter @ 3/1 (General)

    This race is now wide open, with the absence of Sir Gino. Even for a one raced novice over fences, he would still outclass this field. But now it’s a case of who can fill his shoes? I’ve gone with an ultra-consistent horse Libberty Hunter, who finished third at Aintree in a Grade One. On return in handicap company, he bolted up at Cheltenham to win handsomely by four lengths. He’s best seen fresh and has taken 56 days in between races, so looks a great chance.

    The Tizzard’s target this meeting well and JPR One won’t be without a shout. He beat Matata last season in Grade Two company and beat Djelo (see above) in the Haldon Gold Cup at Exeter at the start of this season. He then took part in the Tingle Creek, where the form is handsome with both Jonbon and Solness winning three Grade One’s between them. 9/1 (General).

    Three So Bad?

    3:35 – William Hill Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Mirabad @ 16/1 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    This race is all about trends. Horses have to be ideally rated between 130 and 149, aged between five and seven, and ideally at the start of their hurdling careers. Mirabad checks these boxes. Now a second season novice, although was running in novice races in November. He’s still relatively unexposed in handicap company, finishing third at Ascot and winning at Cheltenham. He hasn’t been seen since, which shows that they have aimed him at this race given his impressive performances recently. He’s won first-up off a break and has to be considered, even at double-figure prices.

    Secret Squirrel cannot be ignored. Not because he’s favourite, but because he also fits those trends. Even with a penalty, he’s well handicapped and Hughie Morrison has had two winners from seven runners recently, so the yard place their horses well. He stayed on strongly at Windsor and what’s to say he can’t do it again. 5/1 (William Hill).

    I am not abandoning Minella Missile either. Excuse her first run back at Windsor, she will now strip fitter and be of notable danger. She is Grade Two winner over hurdles, and represents the archetypal Graded horse in a handicap. She looked very talented that day and many dismiss her chances. Do so at your peril. 28/1 (William Hill).

    Warwick

    Lovely Outfit

    2:40 – Unibet Mares’ Hurdle (Listed) – You Wear It Well @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    With the Kingmaker an open and shut case, this looks the best race of the afternoon at Warwick. Gala Marceau will headline the field but returning after 280 days, I feel a Kargese-esque performance may befall her. You Wear It Well carries a penalty but positively returns to hurdling. She drops in grade, in this sphere, and can put an iffy chasing career behind her to return to her favoured profession.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow More More More

    Four To Follow More More More

    We’ve had the King George and the Welsh National so far. So now we complete the hat-trick with the Challow Novices’ Hurdle. Plus three more Grade One’s in Ireland, featuring the Savills Chase and the return of a dual Gold Cup champion.

    Newbury

    Ready To Roar

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    2:55 – Challow Novice’s Hurdle (Grade One) – The New Lion @ 15/8 (General)

    Regent’s Stroll looked very handy on debut at this course back in November and this has always seemed to be the target. But this is no open and shut case and the form from that maiden hasn’t worked out well. But it doesn’t take long to find the best horse in the race.

    The New Lion has raced over hurdles twice tackling this trip and has looked imperious in doing so. The form from Chepstow worked out and Newbury’s is yet to be tested. Dan Skelton may be out of form but this horse posses a lot of talent and has looked like a Graded hurdler in the making.

    Don’t also discount Bill Joyce who looks like another Graded hurdler in the making for Jonjo & AJ O’Neill. He has already picked up a Graded race at Sandown. Plus his only blot in the copybook came in the G1 Champion Bumper, which can be ignored. 7/2 (General).

     

    Leopardstown

    Cheering Him Home

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    2:00 – Savills Hurdle (Grade One) – Home By The Lee @ 2/1 (Unibet)

    It’s surprising that Bob Olinger never turns up in the early part of the season considering what a good and consistent hurdler he is. But at Christmas time, Home By The Lee seems to just come alive. Joseph O’Brien has been on a big Christmas raid with a King George, and the Paddy’s Reward Club Chase at Leopardstown yesterday. It’s no surprise and I’m fully on board with another O’Brien hopeful.

    Looking at each-way prices, Sandor Clegane has rerouted back to hurdles after never quite making the cut over fences. He did place twice and is a hardy horse can always fight out for the minors, and one day is due a top-level Graded success. It might not be the day today but no surprise to see him giving more towards the end to fill the placings. 12/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    More Glory For GDC

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    2:35 – Savills Chase (Grade One) – Galopin Des Champs @ 4/5 (Betfred)

    Galopin Des Champs is the best three-mile chaser around. There’s no question about that but this year faces tough opposition from the Green and Gold army. Fact To File, Inothewayurthinkin and I Am Maximus provide the rivalry, but this should prove to be quite easy for GDC and will have been primed to go down the same route for his bid for an historic third Gold Cup.

    However one of the opposition that I would like to put in behind the top pick is Inothewayurthinkin. Don’t forget that he is a Grade One novice chaser after winning at Aintree. It was clear that the John Durkan trip didn’t suit him so this step back up to three miles will be much better and can easily get back on to placing terms. 10/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Limerick

    Searching For Something

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    1:40 – Faugheen Novice Chase (Grade One) – Search For Glory @ 10/1 (BetVictor)

    This may be a step in the right direction for Search For Glory after scoring over two mile and six furlongs on debut. He’s a good winner over three miles when hurdling but this will be a good distance to win going Grade One chasing and maybe we will see him more over this trip for a little while longer. Interesting to note that Sam Ewing, now the top rider when Jack Kennedy is away, is booked aboard which clearly says that this is Gordon Elliot’s best chance of the day.

    The Very Best of Luck!

  • Four To Follow – Got Gold?

    Four To Follow – Got Gold?

    One of the feature handicap highlights of the season falls upon us. Formerly the Hennessey, the who will take the prestigious Coral Gold Cup? Plus two more competitive handicaps at Newbury and Newcastle and the small matter of the G1 Fighting Fifth.

     

    Newbury

    A Gold Gamble

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    2:25 – Gerry Feilden Intermediate H’cap Hurdle (Premier H’cap) – Queens Gamble @ 5/1 (William Hill)

    Queens Gamble has been rather consistent returning to form after a break. Reading 121, she can make it four in a row over hurdles in a race she’s been trained for since returning from Summer. Although we would have liked to have seen her more last season she has form to act with Casa No Mento winning twice subsequently. The ground seems to be drying, in her favour, at Newbury too.

    Nicknamed “the Ferrari” Liari was an underrated horse last season, particularly in the British juvenile division. He returned with a decent third at Chepstow, where the winner subsequently placed on his next start behind a good horse in Givemefive. But before pulling up at Cheltenham, he bossed fields at Wincanton, Aintree and Musselburgh in the Scottish Triumph Hurdle. 7/1 (BetVictor).

    Another stand-out British juvenile was Salver, who makes his reappearance after finishing third in the G1 Triumph Hurdle at Cheltenham. The second-placed horse that day finished second at Aintree and won at Punchestown, so the form stacks up. He may want a bit more juice in the ground, but this represents a big drop in grade. 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    Rank And File

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    3:00 – Coral Gold Cup H’cap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Colonel Harry @ 9/1 (William Hill)

    This goes without saying, one of the poorest renewals of the “Hennessey” for a while. Usually, you can identify a potential Gold Cup horse in this race, but this field don’t seem to have the capability.

    But it’s still a great betting race, and I’ve identified Colonel Harry as the potential winner. He’s a second season chaser and has already had a prep run, which is a big plus in this race. He runs for the same trainer jockey and owners of the great Datsalrightgino, last year’s winner, and has a very similar profile and book of form.

    Despite being a shorter price than the top pick Broadway Boy looked to have the credentials of a top-level handicap chaser when he won over this distance at Cheltenham back in December last year. He returned with a decent third, twelve-and-a-half lengths behind Senior Chief who reopposes today. It’s a question of whether he will suit a galloping track and slightly better ground than soft. Has been well-aimed at this race to try and deliver. 13/2 (William Hill).

    Henry’s Friend looks like a decent each-way bet, if you consider his Grade Two win at Ascot denying Kilbeg King in a thriller. He made a seasonal reappearance over hurdles, but suits fences much better. Runs for the Ben Pauling team who picked up a Grade Two winner yesterday. 12/1 (General).

     

    Newcastle

    Gold Gino

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    2:10 – Fighting Fifth Hurdle (Grade One) – Sir Gino @ 11/10 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Super-sub Sir Gino replaces Constitution Hill. But he isn’t just some run of the mill second-season hurdler. This horse bolted up the hill and Cheltenham and went clear up the run-in at Aintree against the Triumph Hurdle second. Despite a well-bred Grade One winner in Mystical Power coming over to plunder a big prize for Willie Mullins, Sir Gino has shown more class.

     

    Bow To Redknapp

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    3:20 – Rehearsal Handicap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Bowtogreatness @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    Bowtogreatness showed great class in handicap company last time out, beating a decent Kim Bailey horse who won Chepstow beforehand. He also ran against two subsequent winners in a Cheltenham novice chase who have backed the form up for him to go well here, under a lenient four-pound rise for the in-form Pauling team.

    Neon Moon has been pretty consistent this season and put up an admirable performance against Chianti Classico at Ascot at the start of the month. He won first time out at Chepstow and looks to be riding the crest of a wave in the handicap. His window seems narrow, so this may the last chance to see the best of him before the spring. 8/1 (General).

  • Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Four To Follow – All Over The Place

    Welcome back to the jumps, people! The most chaotic and most enjoyable time of the year. With Cheltenham already underway, it makes sense to focus in on some top class action there. But we don’t forget the last of the flat, with a Group One at Doncaster and two Group Three’s at Newbury. We’re up, down and all about on this Saturday.

     

    Cheltenham

    Headline Act

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    2:20 – William Hill Handicap Chase – Broadway Boy @ 3/1 (General)

    If there’s one thing I noticed on the Friday of the Showcase meeting at Cheltenham, it’s that front runners had a big advantage. Those who raced prominently were always in the finish. Combine those with a good record on good ground and first time out, and you’ll have your winner.

    Broadway Boy has more than those three factors in his favour. Add in three course wins (two over three miles) and a trainer who found two winners on Friday at Cheltenham, and you have your winner. Broadway Boy acts well on the ground and has a decent enough first-time out record, to make him the one to beat.

    Olly Murphy’s Chasing Fire will add stiff opposition. He goes second-season chasing this term and finished last year on a high with a win over three miles at Perth. That day was on soft, but he appears to be versatile on all ground, so good won’t be a worry. He’s only off six pounds higher than last time and ends up mid-division on the handicaps. Worth a chance, 9/1 (William Hill).

    Unanswered Prayers has been his namesake for almost two years, with no win in handicap company. But his last win came at Cheltenham in a novice chase on good ground. It seems a little harsh that the handicapper has risen him two pounds for finishing a one-and-a-half length second last time out, but he has an ok first-time out record. Plus, course experience, he has claims at 16/1 (General).

     

    The Moral HY Ground

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    4:05 – William Hill Novices’ Chase – Hyland @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    Despite Nicky Henderson’s early season record this, and for previous seasons, Hyland looks laid out for this race. He runs well on good ground and is fresh from a 118-day break. His record fresh is a little inconsistent, but given the right ground he should act on it. He also has a bit of course and distance form after winning at Cheltenham over hurdles in a three-mile contest.

     

    Doncaster

    No More Line Judges

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    2:40 – William Hill Futurity Trophy (GROUP ONE) – Wimbledon Hawkeye @ 5/2 (General)

    With the news that there will be no line judges at the All-England Club in 147 years, and former champion Rafael Nadal retiring, you’d think that Wimbledon Hawkeye had destiny on his side.

    But his last win in a Group Two came at Newmarket came on soft ground when he wound up the Rowley hill in very good fashion. Albeit the form hasn’t been tested, he has won on soft ground which puts him at a major advantage to the others. He’s been a horse to watch this season, and could be well deserved of a Group One.

    Watch out for John & Thady Gosden trained Detain. Despite the pair’s comments that he may avoid this race, owners Juddmonte are confident enough to let him run for the first time on turf in this race. With the ground he’s run on so far, standard-to-slow, and he’s last seven length win, he’s caught eyes and ears, and may well be worth the 11/2 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Warning For All

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    3:10 – BetVictor Horris Hill Stakes (Group Three) – Yaroogh @ 11/4 (General)

    Despite Benevento having better form, he’s still two pounds lower in ratings than Yaroogh, who’s had a busy campaign. He clearly loves soft ground, after a May win at Haydock on soft (which has since been backed up), and last time out on heavy at Deauville in a Listed contest. He finally found true form winning by three-and-a-half lengths and can carry on, on heavy ground, today.

    His main danger will be Bob Mali. Bred from Sands Of Mali, he’s currently unbeaten from three runs, including two wins on heavy ground. The form from a conditions race at Salisbury last time out has seen the second place once more, which should be where this son of Passadouro end up. Definite potential at 6/1 (William Hill).

  • Four To Follow – Gold Stars

    Four To Follow – Gold Stars

    It’s another busy Saturday of racing, with racing from both sides of the border. On the West Coast of Scotland, it’s the Ayr Gold Cup for the big sprinters. But down in Berkshire, it’s all about the two-year-olds in the Mill Reef. Three Group races plus the big handicap of the day feature in today’s four to follow.

    Ayr

    Mere Mortals

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    3:00 – Firth Of Clyde Stakes (Group Three) – Englemere @ 15/2 (William Hill)

    This year’s renewal of the Firth Of Clyde is very tricky. Looking at the trends of winners for the last ten runnings, you have to have some experience. Very rarely does a horse, who’s one from one, win. That’s led me to fall on Englemere. She has plenty of experience at such a young age, but she has had three victories, two coming on good ground. She was last seen behind Flying Childers winner Aesterius at Longchamp, and with the form backed up and the step up in trip looking to suit her, she will be in the finishing pack.

     

    He’s Electric Gold

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    3:35 – Ayr Gold Cup (Heritage H’cap) – Jordan Electrics @ 14/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    Jordan Electrics has proved to be a revelation this season. He has risen through the ranks, and established himself as a top level sprinter at the ripe old age of eight-years-old. Most of his wins this season came at Hamilton, but produced a good finish when second to Jm Jungle at York last time out. Today, he’s drawn near pace Angle Lethal Levi in stall 17, which will prove crucial if he’s to end up towards the winning post at the end of six furlongs. Plus he’s upgraded from Bronze, which he was third in last year, to Gold this year.

    Other potential winners include Strike Red, who ran a creditable eighth at The Curragh having to navigate a wall of horses. Before that he was in a bunch finish in the Constantine Handicap in the Ebor Festival. Hold up horses have had success here, just ask Bielsa, so drawn over on the far side in the least pacy part of the draw might not necessarily be a bad thing for him. 16/1 (William Hill).

    Dare To Hope was the winner of the Great St Wilfrid at Ripon a month ago, and the handicap might just work out for him. He’s risen, on average, three pounds per run, which puts him low in the weights for his run here. Drawn next to Lethal Levi, he can easily latch on for pace and can more than improve on his seventh at the Ebor Festival. 28/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Newbury

    The World All Over

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    1:30 – World Trophy Stakes (Group Three) – Annaf @ 7/2 (General)

    Ignore his latest Group One blip, and focus on a more acceptable race and Annaf makes more sense. Yes he wasn’t good in the Sprint Cup, on his first run back since winning a Group Two in the Middle East. But he’s now dropped to an acceptable level, into a Group Three. Last season, at this time he won two races, including the Portland and the Bengough Stakes so Autumn is his time to shine in Britain. Just hope he doesn’t carry the same condition as he did at Haydock.

     

    Brian

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    3:15 – Mill Reef Stakes (Group Two) – Brian @ 6/1 (General)

    Brian.

    An incredible name for what seems to be an incredible horse. He’s racked up two wins already, including the £100,000 Somerville Auction Stakes at Newmarket. And was charging home late in the day behind Symbol Of Strength in the Sirenia at Kempton. He has a liking for soft ground, which is what the ground reads at Newbury this afternoon. Definitely one to upset the powerhouse of Godolphin.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Rare Visit To Ripon

    Four To Follow: Rare Visit To Ripon

    We’re setting up camp in North Yorkshire this week. With the Ebor Festival next week, we head to the dales to visit Ripon for their premier meeting. The Great St. Wilfred handicap is full of your favourite sprinters, whilst down at Newbury there’s group action and the Irish St. Leger Trial at the Curragh.

     

    Ripon

    A Queen Classic

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    3:20 – William Hill Great St. Wilfrid Handicap – Radio Goo Goo @ 10/1 (General)

    There’s been a lot to like about Radio Goo Goo this season. She had her first win of the season at Ripon over C&D, then won at Chester before two close finishes at Newmarket and in the Racing League at Chepstow last time out. She should overturn that result with Manila Scouse and she’s drawn in the paciest part of the field. Firmer ground tends to favour stand side horses, but those drawn low have pace to latch on to today.

    Almarada Prince is either on it or off it, and hopefully today he’s on it. He was impressive finishing in behind the well finishing James’s Delight in the Macmillan Sprint but didn’t go one better next time out on the all-weather. However he’s on a competitive mark and likes to get a good toe into the race. Another positive for him is that Ripon on a dry day suits front runners. 16/1 (General).

    Emperor Spirit has been running at five furlongs this season, but has always ran at six furlongs for much of his career. Last year he finished seventh off a mark of 92 and is three pounds lower this time around. Going on evidence this season, he can be hot and cold and needs a repeat performance of his performance at Ascot when beaten a head by Albasheer. Definitely eye-catching at the price, 18/1 (William Hill, BetVictor).

     

    Newbury

    Freer Gear

    1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group Three) – Al Qareem @ 7/2 (William Hill)

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    It’s really a race between the top two, as Sumo Sam needs soft ground, Roberto Escobarr’s best days are behind him and it’s Go Daddy’s first time in a British Group race.

    So why Al Qareem over a highly impressive Al Aasy? Well, Al Aasy hasn’t raced at this trip since winning the Bahrain Trophy, whilst Al Qraeem is an out and out stayer. Al Qareem was also unlucky here at the start of the season, but did give Hamish a run for his money. This looks to be a race that will really suit him.

     

    Hunger-y For More

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    3:35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group Two) – Kikkuli @ 11/4 (William Hill, Boylesports)

    Kikkuli was really disappointing in the Group One Prix Jean Prat, but maybe he wasn’t ready for the top level, just yet. Ignore that race and look to his great battle with Haatem in the Jersey Stakes. He battled hard and just needed that little bit more to pass. English Oak seemed to struggle in his foray into Group company, and is worth opposing again.

    Folgaria also is a fancy at the prices. She won the Fred Darling Stakes, often used as a trial for a 1000 Guineas, but didn’t find her feet in the two requisite Group Ones, but she could not have fallen into a better form race if she tried when racing in the Coronation Stakes. She may need a bit more dig in the ground come post time, but I like her chances at 14/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Curragh

    Crazy Horse

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    4:35 – Irish St. Leger Trial Stakes (Group Three) – Absurde @ 3/1 (William Hill)

    Willie’s in the bumper, anyone? Absurde is a high class horse in both disciplines, and after his victory in last year’s Ebor he ticks every box for a stayer on the flat. Grosvenor Square ran a hearty race against his elders in the Curragh Cup, but was second string that day. Absurde, despite giving weight away, will handle pretty much anything in his way and his price makes appeal.

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Four To Follow: Happy Oaks Day

    Another Group One meets us head on, with the Irish Oaks at The Curragh. Also it’s Newbury’s Super Sprint Day for speedy two-year-olds. And we’ve got action over the jumps too, with the Summer Plate from Market Rasen. We’re everywhere today on Four To Follow.

     

    Newbury

    Elite Sprinter

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    3:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Elite Status @ 7/2 (BetVictor)

    Elite Status beat last year’s Super Sprint winner, Relief Rally, in his first start this season over C&D. However, I’ve always felt he would offer more at a higher level and was surprised not to see him head to Ascot. As a result his talent has just been given a cap and, with the three-year-old weight allowance, can display his talents again.

     

    A Viking Invasion

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    3:35 – Weatherbys Super Sprint Stakes – Vingegaard @ 5/1 (BetVictor)

    It’s always a tough race to predict. A big field of two-year-olds who aren’t at the top level, often inexperienced and with different allotted weights. Looking at recent winners, you have to have broken your maiden and raced at Royal Ascot. Vingegaard won well on debut at Chepstow and finished an admirable fifth at Royal Ascot in the Windsor Castle. He’s from a sprinter family so should have no trouble blazing a trail.

    Another little piece of form is Richard Hannon. He’s won this race four times in the last 10 years, which is an incredible strike rate. He only saddles one for this race, which perks interest. Despite Miss Collada not racing at Royal Ascot she has two wins and a place to her name. The form might not have worked out from her run at Salisbury, but performances suggest there’s a lot to come. 16/1 (BetVictor).

     

    Market Rasen

    Boom Boom Boom

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    3:15 – Unibet Summer Plate Handicap Chase (Premier) – Boombawn @ 13/2 (William Hill)

    A little reminder that the jumps season is not too far away with the Summer Plate, summer specialists are the ones to back. Boombawn loves to have his day in the sun. He’s only just started his career as a chaser, so it says a lot when Dan Skelton puts him into a big handicap. He remains on a mark of 135 and can come on from the run from his second last time out.

    If there’s one horse that will religiously turn up to this race, it’s two time winner Francky Du Berlais. He’s nine pounds lower than last year’s race, and eight pounds lower than his lowest winning mark in the race. Despite being an old boy, he’s been placed in his last two runs, so there’s still life in the old boy yet. 10/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Curragh

    Oh Happy Day

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    3:40 – Irish Oaks (GROUP ONE) – Content @ 3/1 (General)

    Only four wins in the last ten years for Aidan O’Brien might seem good at first, but with his records in Ireland far bigger than that, it’s a wonder he hasn’t won more. Content hasn’t been impressive, but the market took not when Ryan Moore decided to ride her instead of Port Fairy. However, a relation added to her form as half-sister Bedtime Story ripped the Chesham field apart. Content also has form from the Coronation Stakes and was the best three-year-old in the Pretty Polly a couple of weeks ago.

    Lava Stream was ultra-impressive and almost chased down Port Fairy in the Ribblesdale. Now she steps up to group one level and may be a little underestimated by the market. She’s from a middle-distance family and can go on all sorts of ground, so good ground at the Curragh will have her suited. The English flat horses always seem to pinch a prize over in Ireland and it could be Lava Stream’s day to do so. 9/1 (BetVictor).

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    Four To Follow: Between A Rock & A Hard Place

    After a mixed week at the Dante Festival, we now move in to the first Group One for the older horses this season. The straight mile at Newbury sees the Lockinge Stakes return, with an international feel. A French raider is in town, can he stamp his authority? Plus a cracking undercard to complete Saturday’s Four To Follow.

     

    A Hot Hero

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    1:50 – Aston Park Stakes (Group Three) – Desert Hero @ 11/10 (William Hill)

    We kick off Lockinge Day with the Aston Park and Desert Hero comes to Newbury looking to avenge his agonising defeat at Sandown in April. He was only beaten by a neck by Okeechobee, but was rallying all the way to the line and needed a few extra yards. From that warm up race he’s been stepped up to his usual mile-and-a-half and stepped down to a Group Three. His near odds-on price should come as a shock to no one.

     

    Taking Relief

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    2:25 – Carnarvon Stakes (Listed) – Relief Rally @ 4/1 (William Hill)

    Relief Rally was one of the impressive two-year-olds over the sprint distance. She certainly showed her speed both over the flying five in the Weatherbys Super Sprint at Newbury and in the Group Two Lowther at York. Her reappearance was a little off over seven furlongs, but back down to the sprint distance, down in class and with a weight allowance, Relief Rally should kickstart what could be a terrific day for William Haggas.

     

    King To Knight

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    3:00 – London Gold Cup (Heritage Handicap) – King’s Gambit @ 9/2 (William Hill)

    One of the hotly anticipated three-year-old handicaps of the season, this often dictates how this year’s crop are going to fair. King’s Gambit in particular is one of unique interest. He had a decent enough novice career, winning over a mile at the course as a two-year-old. But trainer Harry Charlton has been aiming this horse at the London Gold Cup all winter. Being high in the handicap is not a bad thing in this race, particularly if you’ve got a lot of ability.

    Joanna Mason and Mick & David Easterby celebrated a shock winner at the Dante Festival this week. And they haven’t been bad recently, training four good winners in the process. Mason has had a few wins and places herself too. They team up and head down South with Spirit Of Acklam, who has improved stepping up in distance each time. His win at Ripon by three lengths is one to take note of. 10/1 (William Hill).

    Form also counts in this race, particularly when you’ve finished behind a Classic winner. Persica was third behind Notable Speech at Kempton last time out, before he went and won the Guineas a couple of weeks ago. In his novice career, it looked as though he needed juice in the ground to be at his best. He looks like he’s got his ground here and form to match a nice weight in the race. 9/1 (William Hill).

     

    What The Rock Is Cooking…

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    3:35 – Al Shaqab Lockinge Stakes (GROUP ONE) – Big Rock @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    I’ve been waiting, like many people have, to see Big Rock reappear. And when a horse who thrashed British horses by 15-and-a-half lengths, it’s a worry. He does have to contest with Inspiral, who can return well but will want the ground firm. Big Rock can go anything with juice in the ground. It will also be interesting to see how he performs for a new stable, four weeks after he moved in.

    For the Brits, Charyn has had an excellent start to the season. He was dominant in both the Doncaster Mile and bet365 Mile at Sandown. Whilst they were both Listed and Group Two races, he showed a Group One ability that might see him hit the frame. Or even win and make it a stunning start to the season for Silvestre De Sousa and Roger Varian. 6/1 (General).

    It’s also great to see Royal Scotsman reappear. Third in the 2000 Guineas last year, he had excuses of why he ran so poorly in the Irish 2000 Guineas and St James’s Palace Stakes. We then didn’t see him run for the rest of the season, but he’s back and thrown straight into the deep end. The vibes are good from the Cole stable, and could run well and set up some nice prizes later down the line. 14/1 (Betfred, Boylesports).

    The very best of luck!

     

  • Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    Four To Follow: Three On The Flat

    The curtain-raiser of the flat season is back. The Lincoln handicap signals the closing of the National Hunt season as we begin the transition to the speed and ferocity of the flat. Newbury offers the big jumps card of the day as we mix between the two genres in the Spring.

     

    Doncaster

    Shining Armour

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    1:20 – William Hill Doncaster Mile Stakes (Listed) – Knight @ 3/1 (Unibet)

    It was a disappointing season from Knight last season. He promised a lot as a two-year-old, but never hit the ground running in five group races. He was narrowly beaten at Sandown by Chindit, on soft ground which shows he’ll prefer today’s going. With Charyn wanting better ground, Knight can kick start the flat season with his first win since 2022.

    Astral Beau won this race last year, when rated 86 amongst horses rated 100+. Her victory was mainly based on the heavy going, and with heavy in places in the description she’ll relish the test once again this year. 7/2 (General).

    Dashing Roger can also take advantage of the testing ground. He won two races at the back-end of last season on heavy ground, including a handicap by five-and-a-half lengths. Rossa Ryan is an interesting booking, with plenty of placings in recent days. 25/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Barra-full of Cash

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    3:00 – William Hill Cammidge Trophy (Listed) – Baradar @ 3/1 (BetVictor, Unibet)

    Baradar is stepping into level weights for the first time since 2022, when racing in Ireland. He came third in last year’s Lincoln. He managed to win two class two handicaps last season and will not mind the testing conditions. Listed races can sometimes be tricky to negotiate, but this looks like a nice race for Baradar to dominate.

     

    First Big Flat Handicap

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    3:35 – William Hill Lincoln (Heritage Handicap) – Lattam @ 11/1 (Unibet)

    A word on the favourites; The Irish haven’t won this race in 40 years, and it doesn’t look like it will be broken with the Irish Lincoln winner carrying an extra five pounds. Liberty Lane looks a little too high in the weights. Despite being drawn on the far side, he’s on the far rail and only a couple of horses have won from that position.

    I like the look of Lattam, running for the first time under Julie Camacho. He’s a winner of the Irish Lincoln and usually performs well first time out in the season. He hasn’t moved off his mark of 95 but will like the ground and performs well at this time in the season.

    Last year’s winner Migration should go well again. He’s four pounds higher in the weights, but he always is on his A game at the start of the season. David Menusier hasn’t been running many horses during the winter, but given he has a 50% strike rate from running two horses, he is a target trainer and will have prepped Migration for this race again. 16/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

    Spirit Genie is a live outsider for the race. He performed well at the back-end of last season with a win and a narrow second on similar ground which won’t be a problem. His mark of 86 sees him sneak into to the race, rather than dropping into the Spring Mile. It might be his first time at this level, but Jennie Candlish has managed to win two races from her last five runners at a 40% strike rate. 16/1 (William Hill).

     

    Newbury

    Something’s In The Room…

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    3:15 – British EBF BetVictor “National Hunt” Mares’ Novices’ Hurdle (Grade Two) – El Elefante @ 11/2 (BetVictor)

    It took four attempts, but El Elefante finally got her elusive win at Ayr, the Friday before the Festival. The form was well franked after her run in the Rossington Main behind Jeriko Du Reponet. But as he disappointed at the Festival, the second and third didn’t. She remains on the same winning mark as before and despite a high weight she has plenty of talent.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    Four To Follow: Kracking Kelso

    On what seems to be a quiet, almost normal, Saturday, there’s plenty of competitive action up in the Scottish Borders. All eyes are on Kelso for some good, clean fun with no Cheltenham chat in sight. Plus Newbury hosts the Greatwood Gold Cup alongside.

     

    Kelso

    Nice To See You, To See You…

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    2:17 – Premier Novice’s Hurdle (Grade Two) – Brucio @ 6/1 (BetVictor)

    Stuart Crawford and Scottish racing go almost hand in hand. He’s second in the trainers’ championship at Ayr. When he sends one over, particularly in the double green colours, it’s one to keep an eye on. Brucio won a rather average maiden hurdle at Catterick before winning at the DRF in the Listed Mares handicap hurdle by six lengths. With Jango Baie carrying a penalty, and Brucio with an allowance, the balance suggests that Brucio is top rated, and her price should be taken advantage of.

    With Nicky Henderson’s horses not firing as well as they should be, Personal Ambition looks a more worthy favourite for Ben Pauling. Heavy ground defeated him at Sandown in his last Graded race but beating Jingko Blue in his debut over hurdles as paid dividends. He is shorter than Brucio but carries more value than the fav. 4/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

     

    Salsa, Shimmy and Shake

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    2:50 – Morebattle Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Salsada @ 12/1 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Salsada comes into this race of a 315 day break. She’s wanted to run three times this season already but has been withdrawn for a number of reasons. She was last seen finishing fifth in the Scottish Champion Hurdle won by Rubaud who has franked the form to some extent this season. Her run before that saw her finishing second to Epatante, so she’s a good horse in her own right. She comes in on a four-pound lower mark which makes her an appealing wight for the race.

    Anyharminasking holds an entry for the County Hurdle and is looking for the £100,000 bonus of winning the Morebattle and, maybe, the County. Jonjo O’Neill has had an up and down time with him this season, but his rating of 136 did put him second at Newbury. It’s clear from the last couple of runs that two-and-a-half miles hasn’t suited so well, but the drop back should be better in order to prep for the big handicap a week on Friday. 16/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports).

    Bass Rock has been chasing for a while and Sandy Thomson has elected to drop him back to hurdles. Which has left him subject to a massive gamble. He was last seen over hurdles at Ayr in 2022 when winning over further. The handicapper has taken his chasing form into account and has dropped him three pounds. This makes little to no sense and is a perfect opportunity for Bass Rock. 25/1 (Boylesports).

     

    Sometimes, The Old Ones Are The Best

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    3:25 – Premier Chase (Listed) – Aye Right @ 3/1 (General)

    Aye Right is one tough old horse. Monbeg Genius is being prepped for the National, but it’s likely he should get in off a mark of 147. It looks more logical for Aye Right. This race is his Gold Cup. He’s had a superb, yet unlucky season, with two seconds and a third. There’s no stopping his tenacity and will have been prepped to be in the form of his life for today.

     

    Newbury

    Give It Some Gust

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    1:55 – BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Chase (Premier Handicap) – Gustavian @ 12/1 (General)

    The ground at Newbury is bottomless. Friday’s last race was almost won by a furlong by a horse who relishes heavy ground. Therefore, the handicap element disappears and heavy ground horses are to be hammered. Gustavian has by far and away the best record on the ground. He’s also handicapped incredibly well after unseating at the second. So long as he doesn’t do that again, he’ll be bang up there.

    Grandeur D’Ame is a much shorter price and seemed to be having a good season before unseating at the first on Trials Day at Cheltenham. He’s versatile on all sorts of ground, including heavy which he’s won on this season. He remains on a ridiculous rating after being dropped three pounds for finishing fourth in a big handicap at Cheltenham. 4/1 (William Hill, BetVictor, BetUK).

    The very best of luck!