Best Of Bets

Tag: Newbury

  • Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    Four To Follow: Super surprise in store

    With Warwick and Uttoxeter, it really is a Super Saturday at Newbury today. We’ve got star quality with Shishkin in the Denman and the ultra-competitive Betfair Hurdle with trainers from both sides of the Irish Sea looking to land the big pot. Here’s four to look out for on the card in Berkshire today.

     

    Super Sam

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    2:05 – Denman Chase (Grade Two) – Sam Brown @ 11/1 (William Hill, Boylesports, BetUK)

    With heavy ground setting the precedent for the day, it makes sense to back the mud-lovers. Despite Shishkin being odds-on, he got pulled on heavy ground when it was similar ground at Sandown back in December. Nicky Henderson has said he will not pull the horse due to the ground, but we’ve seen it happen before.

    Protektorat hasn’t won a race in over a year, Hitman can’t travel three miles and Does He Know won’t act on the ground. It makes sense to back Sam Brown after his Classic Chase demolition on soft ground at Warwick last month. A three-time winner on heavy ground has seen his odds slash in half and it makes sense to back him against a vulnerable Shishkin.

     

    Surprise result

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    2:40 – Game Spirit Chase (Grade Two) – Boothill @ 9/4 (William Hill)

    With Editeur Du Gite confirmed to be pulled, four runners will go to post for a rather lacklustre renewal of the Game Spirit Chase. Edwardstone drops back to two miles after disappointing in the Silviniaco Conti Chase, but the ground looks as though is against him as it will be for his other three opponents.

    There’s only one pound in favour for Edwardstone over Boothill and Amarillo Sky. Amarillo Sky hasn’t run since last year’s Champion Chase, and Boothill is by far the most successful horse in the field. Despite the ground being as testing as it is, Boothill could spring a surprise in the mud against a top two-mile chaser.

     

    French fancy

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    3:15 – Betfair Hurdle (Premier Handicap) – Ocastle Des Mottes @ 6/1 (William Hill)

    When Willie Mullins brings one over, for a big handicap, heads do turn. The fact this is a French arrival, and a good one at that, turns even more heads. Despite after a break of over 230 days, Ocastle Des Mottes will be fully prepared for the challenge. Plus, his previous form on heavy ground in France will benefit him massively.

    Spirit D’Aunou will relish this ground. Two out of his last three wins have come on testing surfaces. And despite being raised 10lbs, and second in the weights, the ground will override those factors. Gary Moore has been focused on this race for him, the fact the ground has come up heavy is a massive plus. 9/1 (BetVictor, Boylesports) seems fair, but it could be backed in the morning.

    Nigel Twiston-Davies has won this race three times in the last ten years. Five out of the last ten years have been double figure prices. If you follow those simple trends, you’ll find Norman Fletcher. His last win came on heavy ground and was convincing. This is his first time in this company, and he comes in under the radar at a rather low weight. If he wins at 25/1 (General), we won’t be stuck eating porridge.

     

    Bumper bonus

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    4:25 – Beacons Bumper (NHF Race, Listed) – Union Avenue @ 4/1 (General)

    In a race I wouldn’t usually tip, there’s a few things I like about Union Avenue. Firstly, Jimmy Moffat is bringing this horse down from Cumbria, which must mean he thinks a lot about this horse. Secondly, the trainer is a soft ground merchant. Out of his 18 winners, with five on heavy going. Thirdly, Union Avenue finished behind a certain Captain Bellamy on his final point-to-point start, with the form franked when he won at Chepstow in October.

    The very best of luck

  • Four To Follow: A Stroke Of Genius

    Four To Follow: A Stroke Of Genius

    We’re all heading to Newbury this Saturday to escape some of the freezing weather up North. With Newcastle cancelled, and some more likely, all eyes are on Berkshire. The Coral Gold Cup, or Hennessey if you prefer, takes centre stage with some exiting novices to look out for too. It’s another Saturday Four To Follow

     

    It’s Cold Up North

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    1:40 – Coral Handicap Hurdle – North Lodge @ 15/2 (BetVictor, Betfred)

    Despite being off the track for 602 days, North Lodge looks like a class above here. He was last seen being placed in a Grade One novice hurdle at Aintree, beating the likes of Good Risk At All, Colonel Mustard and Stage Star. With a form book like that, there’s a weight of expectation for North Lodge to start with a win. And with the ground conditions a little firmer than usual, North Lodge should relish and outperform this significant drop in class.

    That being said, Get A Tonic provides a more definite outlook. After experimenting over fences, she’s back to hurdles and racing off a decent mark of 130. A drop of five pounds is significant and may enjoy the drop back in trip too. Offers similar value to North Lodge at 15/2 (William Hill), and has already had a run for the Skelton’s.

     

    Everything Is Under Control

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    2:15 – Gerry Fielden Intermediate H’cap Hurdle (Premier) – Under Control @ 13/8 (William Hill, BetVictor)

    My BestofBets colleague Ash Symonds has waxed lyrical since the start of the season about Under Control. And I’ve succumbed to agree with him, for this race at least. Nine wins for Nicky Henderson in this race, shows how much quality can come out of it. And beating Iberico Lord only makes a simpler task of picking him as the NAP of the day. Expect him to go off odds-on.

    And Our Champ could also turn up at a rather inflated price. He was well beaten on soft ground last time out, but the ground will be more to his liking today. Rex Dingle will be hoping for another determined performance after Dashel Drasher’s narrow win yesterday, but he may have to settle for second with and impressive winner at the start of this season. Each-way claims at 16/1 (BetVictor, BetUK).

     

    Behold, My Genius Plan

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    2:50 – Coral Gold Cup Handicap Chase (Premier) – Monbeg Genius @ 15/2 (Betfred, Boylesports)

    Probably the most improving horse in the field, Monbeg Genius has every right to be up there for this one. Ignore his Ascot run, when he was hampered, and you have a horse worthy winning any big handicap.

    The main formline is the Ultima from March, a Grand National winner and a horse who has beaten the Gold Cup winner twice is something worth noting. And, keeping it in the family, Minella Missile (Tipped on this page) won at Cheltenham and is two from two.

    Ground is no object, weight is perfect, trainer in form. What could possibly go wrong?

    Stolen Silver may look like one that’s been thrown in the deep end by the handicapper. But with Ahoy Senor’s addition, the weight he’s carrying looks doable. A win in the Native River at Chepstow assured the fact he would easily get the three-mile trip.

    Whilst it may look he wants soft ground, he will go on any. Sam Thomas is a good placing trainer and I expect he has had Stolen Silver ready for this tilt. Worth having on your side at 12/1 (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports).

    And an outsider that could get in those extra places, Kitty’s Light. It may not be his time of the season yet, but you feel with his chasing mark he has to go for these big handicaps. He’s weighted favourably for this race, and he’s coming in here off the back of two underwhelming hurdle runs.

    He’s much better over the bigger obstacles and possesses so much quality, he’s hard to ignore at 20/1 (BetVictor, Betfred, Boylesports).

     

    Chest-Nutz Roasting

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    3:25 – Jim Joel Memorial Trophy H’cap Chase – Elixir De Nutz @ 11/2 (General)

    Master Chewy has been well backed after taking to fences well. But Elixir De Nutz displayed the quality of a six-year-old when winning the Haldon Gold Cup in fantastic fashion. Go back to the run in last year’s Game Spirit and you’ll see him plugging on when the pace got hot. Freddie Gingell is back after his big break at Exeter and can find some form for the duo.

    The very best of luck!

  • Four To Follow: Rare Visit to Ripon

    Four To Follow: Rare Visit to Ripon

    It wasn’t a great week, but we maintain high spirits as we build our Ebor week pot today. And there are some competitive races on offer across the country. The Hungerford and Geoffrey Freer are two challenging group races, we visit Ripon for the Great St. Wilfrid Handicap and a couple of juveniles takes the eye over in Ireland to make up our Four to Follow this week.

     

    Newbury

    Half and Half Alike

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    1:50 – BetVictor Geoffrey Freer Stakes (Group Three) – Klondike @ 4/1 (General)

    It’s a little known fact that Klondike and Kemari are half-siblings, out of the same mare Koora. And I’ve settled with the latter for this contest. Only three runs to his name he won on his debut here and then has ran into quality horses on his next two starts.

    The firm ground could be an amicable excuse for his run in the Bahrain Trophy, and has it good-to-soft today. He’s rather unexposed, stepping into open company for the first time and recives a big weight allowance for the in-form William Haggas and Tom Marqaund combination.

     

    Maarbye he’ll Chin’em

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    3:35 – BetVictor Hungerford Stakes (Group Two) – Chindit @ 11/4 (General)

    Last year Chindit produced a rare performance over his favourite Newbury straight track. But this year he has shown his quality and, dare I say, Group One ability. Second in the Lockinge was his career-best performance, and his run at Ascot wasn’t that bad when he weakened up the hill. Dropping down in distance is a positive, having won the Greenham over C&D, and he won’t mind the ground either, unlike some in the field.

    Marbaan shouldn’t be discounted in this race. He ran a great race into third, when Kinross and Isaac Shelby went far clear in the Lennox. He’s been racing over six furlongs, and it hasn’t suited him at all, and the step up to seven will be much better. And without the two top class performers over the unique distance, he has room to progress and run a big race at 8/1 (General)

     

    Ripon

    Windy St. Wilfrid

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    3:15 – William Hill Great St. Wilfrid H’cap – Bay Breeze @ 14/1 (BetUK)

    This is one of the best handicaps in season. It’s at one of my favorutie courses, Ripon, and has the best name (Just who was Wilfrid?). And it’s a Northern race, won by Northern trainers. The last Southerner to win this race was Henry Candy in 2009 with Markab. And Tim Easterby has won this race three times, notably with Staxton in 2020 for favourite backers.

    The ground will be on the softer side of good, so winners usually come down the far side rail. Bay Breeze is drawn in five, and comes off the back of a narrow win over C&D and similar ground. His record at Ripon is phenomenal; six runs, four wins, one place. That record, and the trainer, and his recent run, should put him up there.

    Another Ripon returnee is Twelfth Knight, making his stable debut for Paul Midgley. He’s been moved from Ruth Carr’s stable, and has performed very well for her this season. His record at Ripon is two wins (both on soft ground), two seconds and two thirds. He finished behind Bay Breeze, but only by a half-a-length in a bunch finish. Drawn in stall nine, he’s nearer to the centre, but can still have the advantage if he breaks well. 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor) is a great each-way price.

    One more for the big handicap just takes time. It Just Takes Time, looks like he doesn’t have the right draw, but he’s on the right handicap with Jonny Peate claiming three pounds. He’s ground versatile, but he might in too high a class. That aside, he has things in his favour to give him a squeak at 16/1 (William Hill, BetVictor)

     

    The Curragh

    Snell Snell Snell

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    4:00 – Debutante Stakes (Group Two) – Snellen @ 4/1 (BetVictor)

    A Royal Ascot winner, and unbeaten. There’s not much that Snellen has done wrong this season. She managed to hold off Pearls And Rubies in the Chesham and has been given a break by Gavin Cromwell. The one thing that may let her down is the ground, given that she’s won both her races on good-to-firm. But she’s out Illumined who handled the soft very well, and it doesn’t discount Snellen getting it too.

    But I think that Dollerina is the wrong price. She finished second to Ylang Ylang on debut, and the form from that race is one to keep an eye on. Three winners and two places next time out from the twelve runners can’t be looked past. She’s by Terretories, who handled soft ground and should be backed in from 8/1 (BetVictor, Unibet, Boylesports)

    The very best of luck!

  • Newbury Tips – Arrest to Deal knockout blow – The Top Four

    Newbury Tips – Arrest to Deal knockout blow – The Top Four

    Although this weekend’s action is a pleasurable sight, competition is high.

    York Racecourse Ebor meeting fancy – Ante-post Analysis

    Whether it’s through the exciting Group 2 Hungerford Stakes, the 20-runner Great St Wilfrid Handicap, or the Group 1 Prix Jean Romanet over in Deauville, there is something for everyone over the next few days.

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    With that in mind, below are a few Newbury tips to consider for today, as well as one Ripon selection.

     

    1:50 Newbury – Arrest @ 6/4 with William Hill – 3pt Win

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    I’m not the first, I won’t be the last, and I’m certainly not the most prominent person to tell you this, but with the rain that has hit Newbury over the last 24 hours, Arrest looks a good bet in the Group 3 Geoffrey Freer Stakes.

    As I admitted on Wednesday’s Only Fools Love Horses video, following his dominant Group 3 Chester Vase victory in May, I backed this Frankel colt for the Arc in October at 25/1.

    Although that didn’t eloquently display my ability to be a good judge, the performance shown around the tight track warranted a high level of respect as he swept aside Adelaide River, a subsequent Irish Oaks and Grand Prix de Paris runner-up.

    Two runs since on good-to-firm ground in the Group 1 Epsom Derby and Group 2 King Edward VII Stakes, the latter behind King Of Steel, haven’t seen him to the greatest effect, however, John & Thady Gosden have freshened him up since and, most importantly, the ground will be on the softer side of good.

    This step-up in trip shouldn’t cause too many issues, and with the weight-for-age allowance in full force, Arrest is my horse to open up the Newbury tips.

     

    2:25 Newbury – Whenthedealinsdone @ 15/2 with BetVictor – 1pt EW

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    In the very next race, Whenthedealinisdone looks like a standout contender at 8/1 in the Highclere Castle Gin Handicap.

    The Roger Teal-trained five-year-old is on his lowest ever mark of 87 having only been rated this leniently back during his two-year-old season in October 2020.

    The handicapper has obviously taken a strong view on his recent runs this season as he has dropped 11 pounds in six starts for a five-year-old who still contains his original ability.

    This was displayed in his second-placed effort at Windsor when behind King Of Bavaria and ahead of the future Epsom Dash winner, Navello.

    The Dark Angel gelding has a good record towards the middle parts of the season after a few runs under his belt and now he is three pounds below his last winning mark – and 11 pounds below his rating when third to Fast Response at Doncaster – today could be the day to catch him.

     

    3:00 Newbury – Hodler @ 10/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Finally, the Heart Bingo Summer Sizzler Handicap is under the microscope and as the biggest price of the three Newbury tips, Jim Boyle’s Hodler at 12/1 looks like an interesting bet.

    Unfortunately, at the time of writing, the 25/1 early price has dissipated to a skinnier 12/1, however, there’s plenty of reason to suggest why.

    Putting his disappointing effort on good-to-firm ground on Epsom Oaks day to one side, the Sea The Moon four-year-old defeated Charlie Fellows’ Gorak by two lengths on soft ground at Chester when officially rated two pounds higher than the runner-up.

    Following that run, Gorak won a Haydock handicap 17 days later before he finished just two lengths behind Jumby in the Group 3 John Of Gaunt Stakes, a performance that saw the handicapper raise him 19 pounds to a mark of 105, 23 pounds higher than his Chester second.

    Furthermore, Paws For Thought crossed the line in third during that previously mentioned Chester race, a horse who went on to win three on the bounce later this season, while the fourth, Broken Spear, was a winner Leicester on his next start and the fifth, Another Batt, has since completed a quickfire double.

    On that Chester race alone, Hodler looks well-handicapped off 89 even before you look at his final start of last season where he finished second to Astral Beau, a horse that has improved 24 pounds since.

    Out of stall four on Saturday, there should be pace around him thanks to Isla Kai in five and Top Secret in three, and I hope that the five-pound claim of jockey Luke Catton can help Hodler make it two wins from three races.

     

    Bonus Fancy: 2:40 Ripon – Holbache @ 9/1 with William Hill – 1pt EW

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    Finally, away from Newbury, today’s card at Ripon is certainly one to be excited by with the Great St Wilfrid looking as competitive as ever, but in the race directly before, Holbache is a horse I can’t let go off unbacked at 9/1.

    The five-year-old by Coach House has been a loyal servant for the Worcestershire-based team during his three years on the track, a run that has included six wins from 27 outings.

    Two of those victories have occurred in his last five races and in both of those successes on the all-weather last year, he delivered a very impressive front-running performance.

    After a winter break, he returned to the track last month with a promising seasonal opener at York under today’s jockey Connor Beasley, a run that should have him spot-on for today.

    Thanks to the handicapper dropping him two pounds for the run last time out, he can certainly make a mark of 71 work, so the hopes are high for a good run today.

  • Four To Follow: Doing A Rain Dance

    Whilst Europe is baking, we’re stuck with typical British Summer rain. But that’s not all bad, as there are some cracking bets to be had on a subdued Saturday. Irish Oaks takes centre stage at the Curragh, whilst Newbury and Market Rasen are the focus in the UK. Here is this week’s four to follow.

     

    Newbury

    SHADWELL SHOW

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    15:00 – Hackwood Stakes (Group Three) – Ehraz @ 12/1 (General)

    Shadwell have had a great record in the race in recent times, winning four out of the last ten. Jim Crowley knows his way around a decent Shadwell sprinter, and has also won this race four times. Blinkers are on for the first time, which can be seen as a positive in a decent sized field like this. And a nice middle draw should also suit nicely. With the rain on its way, it ticks another box for Ehraz as his best record comes on ground worse than good to firm. For Lezoo backers, she doesn’t have a great record on ground worse than good-to-firm, which is a big concern for me.

     

    Market Rasen

    AN OLD FAVORUITE

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    15:15 – Summer Plate H’cap Chase (Premier H’cap) – Francky Du Berlais @ 11/2 (Betfred, BetVictor, BetUK)

    It’s great to see a bit of Summer jumps action at Market Rasen, and at Cartmel too, and it’s also great to see a familiar name in their premier race. Francky Du Berlais has won this race for the previous two years, and won a right ding-dong against La Domaniale last year. La Domaniale is up 12 pounds from last year’s nose-off, but has improved massively since then and is a fair mark. Whereas Francky hasn’t won since, and goes off a mark one pound higher than last year’s winning mark. But he loves the track, and seems to come into his own in the Summer months. It could be a legendary three-peat for a legendary horse.

    Keep an eye out for Killer Clown, who came third off the back of a wind operation for the Emma Lavelle team. He suits the profile of a Summer horse, preferring good ground throughout the Winter, and his mark of 138 will suit him, condiering he came second in the Greatwood Gold Cup off the same. A nice 12/1 shot (10Bet, BetUK)

     

    Curragh

    WILD WEATHER

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    14:35 – Scurry Handicap (Premier H’cap) – Hurricane Ivor @ 11/1 (Betfred)

    There are two good reason why I’ve gone with this horse. One is because of the name, keeping the theme of the weather. And the other is because of this horse’s record in the rain. It has won five races out of 13 on ground ranging between good-to-soft and heavy, which isn’t a bad strike rate for a sprinter. His previous two starts at the Curragh have reulted in a win and a third, before not taking to the ground in the Wokingham. The other thing is that he is off a workable mark of 99 and a nice inside draw in four. There are lot of positives to this horse, even with the weather.

    Another horse who likes the rain is Blairmayne. His last two starts have been on soft/heavy ground and have resulted in a win and a tight third. He sprung up the handicap from a mark of 82 to 89, but is back to a mark of 85 and Blairmayne can take full advantage. Wide draws, aren’t necessarily a bad thing at the Curragh either. 14/1 is a fair each-way shout (William Hill, Betfred, Boylesports)

     

    DANCING IN THE RAIN

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    15:45 – IRISH OAKS (GROUP ONE) – SAVETHELASTDANCE @ EVENS (BetVictor)

    The simple fact is on her four starts, three of them have come on soft to heavy ground and she has won two of them. She won one of them at Chester by 22 lengths, she ran a great race despite finishing second to Soul Sister, who didn’t back up the form in the Grand Prix de Paris. She has everything in her favour, including three stablemates to guard her so she can waltz home and pick up Aidan O’Brien’s third classic of the season.

    Azazat could be worth a punt on the without market. She has also won on soft to heavy ground and wasn’t too far behind Savethelastdance at Leopardstown. She is by a Derby winner, so there is no worry about the trip and could have won the Munster Oaks if she wasn’t bumped at the finish by Rosscarberry. She’s tough and might get a place if she’s lucky. 14/1 (William Hill) is her best price outright.

    The very best of luck!

  • Cheltenham Countdown: Ones to watch at Kelso, Newbury and Doncaster

    Cheltenham Countdown: Ones to watch at Kelso, Newbury and Doncaster

    Not that we’re counting or anything, but just two weekends remain on the countdown to Cheltenham 2023.

    Though some have already plotted and planned their journey to Gloucestershire later this month, for others, this weekend holds the earlier priority.

    Saturday in particular sees action at Kelso, Newbury and Doncaster.

    However, so close to the festival will anything be learnt from Saturday’s three cards?

    We’ve picked out one name to watch from each meeting.

     

    13:50, Kelso, Morebattle Hurdle (Group 2, 4yo+, 2m)

    There is a strong Cheltenham presence on hand in our pick from Kelso, the bet365 Morebattle Hurdle.

    Teddy Blue is our punt in Scotland.

    A sixth run of the season for Gary Moore’s ride since wind surgery, the 5yo was third at 10/1 over the same distance at Newbury last time out.

    Finishing behind Aucunrisque and Filey Bay last month in the Betfair Hurdle however, Jamie Moore rode Teddy Blue to victory in January at Lincoln.

    Moore could jump back into the saddle in favour of Caolin Quinn here and will be looking to impress with his current steep price in the SkyBet Supreme next up.

    Could a 6/1 shot with Ladbrokes and Coral be a tidy earner for punters? We believe it can.

     

    14:45, Newbury, BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup (Group 1, 5yo+, 2m4f)

    Saturday’s sole Group 1 contest in Berkshire comes from the BetVictor Greatwood Gold Cup Handicap Chase and we are turning to Zanza to make it three wins in-a-row at Newbury.

    At the time of writing, none of the seven-strong field are making the trip to Cheltenham but this is nonetheless very competitive.

    In the case of Zanza, the mount of Tom O’Brien came home a hefty 16/1 winner by seven lengths on this very course less than a month back.

    A prior win in front of the Berkshire Stand came in late November, sandwiched by a seventh at Wetherby exactly a month later – won by Ultima Handicap favourite, Into Overdrive.

    To say Zanza has form at Newbury is an understatement and at 11/4 for 5 places with William Hill, has to be worth a decent stake.

     

    15:15, Doncaster, Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase (Group 2, 5yo+, 3m2f)

    Our third punt of the weekend comes from South Yorkshire and the Virgin Bet Grimthorpe Handicap Chase at Doncaster.

    Here at BestofBets we prefer to veer from the favourites and look for better value, but Cooper’s Cross does look the choice here.

    The father-son duo of Stuart and Sam Coltherd are currently with two options for Cheltenham: The Ultima or the Magners Plate.

    The latter could carry greater hopes for the Irish 8yo but the trip here could be revealing.

    The journey here is just 1f longer than the Ultima so if the gelding does impress, an about turn could yet be on the cards.

    Cooper’s Cross has happy memories of Doncaster with victory last time out and in total has won half of his contests this term.

    In the last seven outings the horse has come at worst third – with the exception of being pulled up at Sedgefield last January.

    Races in the region of 3m suit Cooper’s Cross and having beaten Cap Du Nord just over a month ago, has the pedigree to come on top.

    And, if we consider a price of 9/4 with PaddyPower for the current pundit’s pick, Cooper’s Cross can deliver.